Honestly - your math beats me, I simply do not know if that's the way you calculate the required texture memory.
All the numbers I have ever considered were, when going from 1280x1024 = 1,310,720 pixels to 1680x1050 = 1,764,000, meaning 1.35x more pixels to process.
My 3DMark06 1280x1024 is ~5900, with 1680x1050 is ~5200.
I have no way of checking how much VRAM is being used at the moment, but as I said, Quake 4 will not let you pick Ultra Quality settings with less than 512 VRAM. And I can only imagine that Crysis will be more than happy to place those uncompressed textures in the VRAM, instead of keeping them in RAM or Virtual memory on the Hard Drive only to decompress them when needed.
That's what causes "jerkiness" and "staggering" during games.
BTW, playing Quake 4 in Ultra Quality would cause my RAM to max-out in some scenes - 99% memory use reported by Logitech G15, 2GB upper RAM barrier for applications in 32-bit OS'. It shows ~65% now with 3GB installed, but the performance improved.