50 Years of Failed Climate Change Predictions

[Hayabusa Rider]

I bet that ends up in a failed climate change predictions story like that of the OP, eventually.

Since the OP is talking his version of "reality" I thought I'd present something with a more scientific basis than his doubts.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Brief CLINTEL aan VN-baas Guterres - Stichting Climate Intelligence Clintel

Professor Guus Berkhout The Hague guus.berkhout@clintel.org 23 September 2019 Sr. António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations, United Nations Headquarters, New York, NY 10017, United States of America. Ms. Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework...

clintel.nl

Hundreds of scientists and professionals in climate related field send a letter to the UN. Their claim is that there is no climate emergency...

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

We have someone listing names and stating there is no climate emergency. No data of course so they beg the question.

A: "There is no climate crisis"

So why is that statement valid?

Response B: "See A"

 

[Muse]

I bet that ends up in a failed climate change predictions story like that of the OP, eventually.

Safe bet for you because when it happens you'll be long dead.

 

[Muse]

Brief CLINTEL aan VN-baas Guterres - Stichting Climate Intelligence Clintel

Professor Guus Berkhout The Hague guus.berkhout@clintel.org 23 September 2019 Sr. António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations, United Nations Headquarters, New York, NY 10017, United States of America. Ms. Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework...

clintel.nl

Hundreds of scientists and professionals in climate related field send a letter to the UN. Their claim is that there is no climate emergency...

Talk about fake news, you are it.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

Brief CLINTEL aan VN-baas Guterres - Stichting Climate Intelligence Clintel

Professor Guus Berkhout The Hague guus.berkhout@clintel.org 23 September 2019 Sr. António Guterres, Secretary-General, United Nations, United Nations Headquarters, New York, NY 10017, United States of America. Ms. Patricia Espinosa Cantellano, Executive Secretary, United Nations Framework...

clintel.nl

Hundreds of scientists and professionals in climate related field send a letter to the UN. Their claim is that there is no climate emergency...

You're fucking embarrassing.

Guus Berkhout - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Climate change denial activities[edit]
Berkhout founded the Netherlands-based climate change denial organization Climate Intelligence Foundation (CLINTEL). Mid 2019 plans of CLINTEL and Berkhout were leaked showing that they were organizing a campaign against political commitments to net zero carbon emissions being made to law. According to The Independent these campaign feature "hundreds of climate change deniers including academics, politicians and lobbyists". Signatories come from several denial organizations such as Koch-founded Cato Institute and Heartland Institute, which are also part of the Atlas Network, Institute of Economic Affairs, Adam Smith Institute and TaxPayers' Alliance as well as members from oil- and gas companies. The letter, which was confirmed by Berkhout, claims that current changes in the climate are “expected from the cyclic behaviour of the climate system” and that there is “no proof” that carbon dioxide is a major driver of global warming.[8] According to Desmog the "international organising group" behind the campaign "includes some well-known figures from the climate misinformation world" such as Richard Lindzen, Vic Forbes, Fritz Vahrenholt, Jeffrey Foss, Jim O'Brien and Terence Dunleavy.[9]

 

[SlowSpyder]

All you're saying is that you don't like the people that sent that letter to the UN because they don't agree with your group think. Whoopdeedo.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

All you're saying is that you don't like the people that sent that letter to the UN because they don't agree with your group think. Whoopdeedo.

No, the people that sent that letter in are factually incorrect. I don't like them because they're engaging in dubious behavior to push an agenda that sacrifices our environment for profits.

This isn't about 'me being right'. I'd be fucking thrilled if someone came out tomorrow with proof positive that the climate was going to be okay, and we could keep doing what we were doing. That's not reality though. Anyone telling you that reality is wrong and that you should instead let someone else continue to make money, is lying to you.

EDIT: As a further point, there's barely even anything in that 'letter' to refute. They're simply stating 'nothing to be concerned about, don't panic, keep on keepin' on'. What is definitively stated is laughable.

There is no climate emergency
A global network of 500 scientists and professionals has prepared this urgent message. Climate science should be less political, while climate policies should be more scientific. Scientists should openly address the uncertainties and exaggerations in their predictions of global warming, while politicians should dispassionately count the real benefits as well as the imagined costs of adaptation to global warming, and the real costs as well as the imagined benefits of mitigation.

Natural as well as anthropogenic factors cause warming
The geological archive reveals that Earth’s climate has varied as long as the planet has existed, with natural cold and warm phases. The Little Ice Age ended as recently as 1850. Therefore, it is no surprise that we now are experiencing a period of warming.

Warming is far slower than predicted
The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are far from understanding climate change.

Climate policy relies on inadequate models
Climate models have many shortcomings and are not remotely plausible as policy tools. Moreover, they most likely exaggerate the effect of greenhouse gases such as CO2. In addition, they ignore the fact that enriching the atmosphere with CO2 is beneficial.

CO2 is plant food, the basis of all life on Earth
CO2 is not a pollutant. It is essential to all life on Earth. Photosynthesis is a blessing. More CO2 is beneficial for nature, greening the Earth: additional CO2 in the air has promoted growth in global plant biomass. It is also good for agriculture, increasing the yields of crop worldwide.

Global warming has not increased natural disasters
There is no statistical evidence that global warming is intensifying hurricanes, floods, droughts and suchlike natural disasters, or making them more frequent. However, CO2-mitigation measures are as damaging as they are costly. For instance, wind turbines kill birds and bats, and palm-oil plantations destroy the biodiversity of the rainforests.

Policy must respect scientific and economic realities
There is no climate emergency. Therefore, there is no cause for panic and alarm. We strongly oppose the harmful and unrealistic net-zero CO2 policy proposed for 2050. If better approaches emerge, and they certainly will, we have ample time to reflect and adapt. The aim of international policy should be to provide reliable and affordable energy at all times, and throughout the world.

 

[SlowSpyder]

No, the people that sent that letter in are factually incorrect. I don't like them because they're engaging in dubious behavior to push an agenda that sacrifices our environment for profits.

This isn't about 'me being right'. I'd be fucking thrilled if someone came out tomorrow with proof positive that the climate was going to be okay, and we could keep doing what we were doing. That's not reality though. Anyone telling you that reality is wrong and that you should instead let someone else continue to make money, is lying to you.

As long as our population is growing at the rate it is, feel good do nothing things like banning plastic bottles or straws is laughable. You act as if people that deny climate change are the hypocrites while you gladly use many times the energy compared to people in poor countries, the majority of the world's population. How much energy have you used to ensure people online know your opinion on xyz subject? Climate change deniers are more truthful to themselves than the average liberal.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

As long as our population is growing at the rate it is, feel good do nothing things like banning plastic bottles or straws is laughable. You act as if people that deny climate change are the hypocrites while you gladly use many times the energy compared to people in poor countries, the majority of the world's population. How much energy have you used to ensure people online know your opinion on xyz subject? Climate change deniers are more truthful to themselves than the average liberal.

Me spending my time refuting simpletons like you is a perfectly acceptable use of my carbon budget, if bringing actual facts and research to the subject can either educate someone willing to learn, or at least make a fence-sitting denialist think twice.

Not sure what you're getting at wrt world population, yeah, that's a fucking problem now and will be in another 50 years, unless political response to mass migrations 'solves' the problem.

I've stated this a few times, but I've actively been taking steps to lower my carbon footprint, and plant fucking trees. What are you doing besides dredging up complete garbage on the internet trying to prove people with accurate facts and research wrong?

 

[dainthomas]

All you're saying is that you don't like the people that sent that letter to the UN because they don't agree with your group think. Whoopdeedo.

Scientists love arguing with each other. It's what makes the scientific method work. But for your argument to succeed, you have to back it up with reproducible evidence. These folks don't have it.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Scientists love arguing with each other. It's what makes the scientific method work. But for your argument to succeed, you have to back it up with reproducible evidence. These folks don't have it.

See the OP.

 

[[DHT]Osiris]

See the OP.

Oh we see you, you're a disingenuous climate denialist.

 

[Muse]

Oh we see you, you're a disingenuous climate denialist.

i.e. the lowest of the low

 

[SlowSpyder]

i.e. the lowest of the low

Right up there with men that believe they're women despite the evidence.

How much energy, how many resources did you use today? You seem very concerned about the environment. Drive a car? Take a shower? Eat some meat? Use a straw?

 

[Muse]

Right up there with men that believe they're women despite the evidence.

How much energy, how many resources did you use today? You seem very concerned about the environment. Drive a car? Take a shower? Eat some meat? Use a straw?

I did not drive a car today.
I did not take a shower today.
I ate 2 ounces of meat (my doctor told me to eat some red meat)
I don't use straws.

You are accusing the wrong guy. Look in a mirror, that's your enemy.

 

[SlowSpyder]

I did not drive a car today.
I did not take a shower today.
I ate 2 ounces of meat (my doctor told me to eat some red meat)
I don't use straws.

You are accusing the wrong guy. Look in a mirror, that's your enemy.

But, you're using energy so everyone can know your opinion. On the whole, you use resources as you need for comfort and convenience in your life. You're like the rest of them, you like to complain, but what are you doing beside bitching on the internet (using energy)? Climate change seems like a popular thing to whine about but not a popular to make any sacrifices over.

 

[Jhhnn]

Now Slow is going on like Christie's "Write a check" routine. Actual energy usage isn't the issue, anyway, but rather the burning of fossil fuels to have it.

 

[dainthomas]

Right up there with men that believe they're women despite the evidence.

How much energy, how many resources did you use today? You seem very concerned about the environment. Drive a car? Take a shower? Eat some meat? Use a straw?

You can't focus on one duh-version at a time? Just so you know, ADD is covered by Obamacare.

 

[Jaskalas]

You can't focus on one duh-version at a time? Just so you know, ADD is covered by Obamacare.

He needs to spin it around and deflect / distract. For he has no argument, only hatred for others.

Such as the original post and its entire premise. That news articles equal scientific rigor and "failed predictions". Because Al Gore is mockable and fallible, we should abandon science altogether. Why? Because... reasons. Because those are his enemies and if they can be used for propaganda then the OP will damn well use them.

The OP does not hold a candle to the facts on the matter. He'd rather live in a bubble and play spin the bottle on who to personally attack next. With age old fallacies of harping on our energy use. As if we must sacrifice alone and not together. As if society cannot function if it works together to solve problems. There's a seasoning of "bootstraps" and "each man an island" sprinkled in here, as if these problems can be addressed individually. Which is laughably moronic.

At the end of the day, the "Pause" was a complete and utter failure. Some of us thought we knew science and were proven wrong. We argued in good faith and admitted defeat. Which only highlights the character, or lack thereof, of those who remain defiant in the face of reality. I do not recognize the sort of person who views the data we have today, and still dares to tell us scientists were wrong.

 

[maddie]

See the OP.

I'm afraid that this issue(AGW) vs climate change is one of those generational changes where the final outcome will not be realized before more decades have passed and much harm has been done.

I was once a firm believer in AGW and the Carbon Dioxide thesis of warming. My first realization as to the foolishness of it all was the idea of a future arid earth being promised by the radical climate warriors. How could that be possible as more energy (heat) would drive the hydrological cycle more vigorously, thus more rain and humidity globally. Next was the realization that mature forests remove ZERO carbon from the atmosphere. A mature forest is a stable ecosystem and if you understand systems you'll realize that input=output for stability. As trees die they release all of the carbon stored in them and this amount is utilized by new replacement growth. The net is zero over time. Finally, I started finding data refuting the worst alarmism of the radical Eco-warriors as in the NASA link below. As all things religious however, facts hardly ever matter to the true believers.

My biggest concern now and should be to any rational person is the now being contemplated possibility of regime change based on climate change denial. A new round of reasons to kill our fellow humans.

I live on a Caribbean island 10 degrees north of the equator and here are two true stories.

1] My country hosted a Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in 2009. The BBC's only local interview with a resident environmentalist was with a young man claiming that sea level rise was destroying the local east coast and proceeded to show the extremely narrow beach while spouting a lot of meme buzzwords. I was familiar with the chap and he is all mouth, few brains. He lied outright as this is an annual seasonal affair. This interview was viewed worldwide.

2] A group of European environmentalists held a series of meetings to lobby for increased petrol taxes locally. Why? Trinidad is one of the largest CO^2 per capita generators worldwide. Reason? Our natural gas reserves have attracted European and North American petrochemical heavyweights to the island to exploit the reserves. These people set up their companies on our soil to utilize our resources, repatriate most of the profits to their foreign shareholders and now want us to pay higher taxes to compensate for them exploiting our reserves. Well Fuck them.


I've often wondered about if intelligence + information is a constant. We have more information readily available than ever before, but I swear that many people have gotten less intelligent, as in the ability to reason competently. The simplest logical problem appears harder for many to solve than from what I remember. If this is true then we're in very deep shit.

One final thing. I have found the true believers to be the MOST cruel and sadistic of human beings. Once was part of a group committed to environmental work, and yes fools, one can both believe in a better healthier environment AND deny AGW as true. Anyhow two radical members had these two beliefs (of many). First, in reply to my question of human population growth and the choice on whether to have children and how could you control people's freedoms, seriously suggested the practice of infanticide as a workable solution. Second, they wanted to end space exploration as mass from the planet (their Gaia) was being removed. One was a fucking PHD from Australia. Forget about East vs West, First-world vs Third-World, Christian vs Muslim vs Jewish, these are the future schisms for us.


Like the cultural revolution in China, ideologues without any sense of reality will doom many lives if they dominate the world.


Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth

"An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States."

What was the recent shit show on the Amazon? I live in the tropics. Anyone else here ever see a tropical forest regrow?

 

[mect]

But, you're using energy so everyone can know your opinion. On the whole, you use resources as you need for comfort and convenience in your life. You're like the rest of them, you like to complain, but what are you doing beside bitching on the internet (using energy)? Climate change seems like a popular thing to whine about but not a popular to make any sacrifices over.

Asking individuals to make sacrifices is stupid bullshit anyways. Individuals not eating meat, not flying on airplanes, etc, is good publicity for the climate cause, and can help the individual to feel good, but it is never going to put a dent in the problem. We aren't going to solve climate change by individuals making changes to their lifestyles. We are only going to solve climate change by governments passing regulations that require all people and companies to take into account the cost of environmental impacts when considering the overall cost of goods and activities.

 

[ElFenix]

How much energy, how many resources did you use today? You seem very concerned about the environment. Drive a car? Take a shower? Eat some meat? Use a straw?

i don't use a straw because i'm not 5 year old girl. i use a car because the oil companies and the car companies and their puppets in government decided back in the 50s that was the only way to create a city. i showered because i don't want to stink and i live in a swamp that has too much water anyway.


have you figured out how to read a topo map yet?

 

[SlowSpyder]

i don't use a straw because i'm not 5 year old girl. i use a car because the oil companies and the car companies and their puppets in government decided back in the 50s that was the only way to create a city. i showered because i don't want to stink and i live in a swamp that has too much water anyway.


have you figured out how to read a topo map yet?

So, again, all about talking about change and whining about the past, but hey... not going to cramp your lifestyle either.


I hear storm surges are worse, hurricanes are worse because of climate change. I imagine that might affect ocean-side homes. Some people seem to be willing to take the chance though. Ocean front homes continue to have high values. Now compare that to well above sea level, comfortably far inland, Democrat stronghold Detroit.

 

[ElFenix]

So, again, all about talking about change and whining about the past, but hey... not going to cramp your lifestyle either.


I hear storm surges are worse, hurricanes are worse because of climate change. I imagine that might affect ocean-side homes. Some people seem to be willing to take the chance though. Ocean front homes continue to have high values. Now compare that to well above sea level, comfortably far inland, Democrat stronghold Detroit.

I drive an old ass car and live in multi family housing. I even pick garbage up out of the gutter while walking the dog. There's little else I could do to be greener while still meaningfully participating in society. A society which, again, was purposefully engineered by oil and car companies for their private profit and our public ruin. Yes, @glenn1, your lifestyle was changed for you without your knowledge or awareness, to say nothing of your permission.

This argument that no one can ask you to be personally responsible unless they're Amish is complete bullshit. Why do you hate personal responsibility so much? Or maybe, personal responsibility, like other right wing platitudes, is just a lie.

That's a lot of words to admit that, no, you still can't read a topo map.