2nd set Democrat debates

[Bitek]

This feels like a math problem at this point.

For Dems to win they need the following:
- historically high black voter turnout
- flip back Obama --> Trump voters
- suburban white women swinging from R to D (continuing 2018 midterm trend)
- 35 and under crowd to show up and vote

Right now Biden has the first two pegged and it's not even close for a second.
No candidate in particular has really struck hard with the suburban women other than "anyone not Trump"
35 and under only see Bernie, Pete and Yang. Slight pulse with Warren in that crowd.

The black voting support is the single most important and confusing part of this process. Biden has such a lead there no one else even registers. With that support you no longer need to play identity politics. You have it without pandering. And Biden also does not turn off rust belt white males like Harris or Booker would. He also doesn't have to dial up Staci Abrams and look like he's playing to that market either. Which again would turn away Whitey McWhiterson rust belt male. So he has a lot more open opportunity to grab a VP that can try and appeal to women and the sub 35 crowd without rocking the boat with other groups.

If other candidates polled stronger with the black voting base this would be a wildly different discussion.

I like your analysis, I think it's spot on.

Same with keys to success and where Biden stands with them, and I generally agree he has the most flexibility in VP picks.

I do standby the need for him to have a diverse ticket. Not just for the AA vote (they tend to be far more pragmatic than that) but for the younger and more progressive voters (inc the white ones) I'd argue.

You can't end up in an #demssowhite situation in 2020 with the party leadership (inc Pelosi and Schumer) as all white boomers after racist ass Trump, or even all men after Hillary came so close last time.

Biden has to be paired up with a younger woman from any background (hence my Tulsi joke,) but someone who doesn't create an open Senate seat to risk, one that doesn't scare anyone off, and one that's plausibly able to lead the party after Biden.
Abrams will get a hard look.
Don't forget she had Oprah behind her too. 😉
Harris has a real chance if she doesn't blow it..

That checks your last two boxes and sets the standard the other runners in the race have to be able to beat.

 

[Bitek]

Is anyone from the GOP even bothering to run against Trump this time?

A nobody named Bill Weld.
So not really.

 

[woolfe9998]

Didn't see much of the first debate, but did watch the second. I don't get all this praise for Biden just because it wasn't a total disaster for him. Biden was uneven at best. Remembering all the way back to 2008, he just isn't that great of a debater and likely never will be. He's not going to do well against Trump in debates, if he gets the nomination which I think is not at all clear at this point.

I thought Booker gave overall the strongest performance.

Harris was feckless for most of the debate.

 

[pauldun170]

No one is going to win anything while Mitch McConnell and his merry band of fucktards lead the Senate and FoxNews is the mainstream media in the US setting the tone of the conversation.
No matter who the president end up being, we are all losers with the current state of the Senate and the GOP media wing.

 

[Perknose]

As a joke of course. She also seems to have a lot of social media bots behind her, as well as some positions well aligned with Putin's.
Coincidence?....

Ha, thanks! I thought so, but wanted to make sure.

 

[glenn1]

That was part of it, but also because working class Joe could also ease fears about Obama with some key demographics and regions, as well as being an old Senate hand that knew how to crank the legislative machinery.

Same with Pence being wingman to Trump.

Some may not like the identity aspects of the VP nom, but politics find their way into politics.

With my comments about Warren as a VP pick (esp for Biden) Biden has all the DC connections and skills. All he'll need from a VP is an identity/demographic play, but not pick someone terrible like McCain did with Caribou Barbie.
Picking her only creates risk with very little return. It would be crazy.

If Biden is the nominee, the "VP problem" won't be with finding someone to help him gain votes but rather just limiting the disappointment in his own base. Old Joe isn't going to be an Obama type inspirational figure, he'll run on a "I'm a replacement for Trump who actually knows WTF I'm doing and OH YEAH I'M ALSO NOT A RACIST". Biden's pitch is ultimately to older white boomers who aren't yet comfortable putting a strongly opinionated woman like Warren in charge, basically "remember the 20th century when white dudes were always President and things worked, well I'm a white guy so you put 2 and 2 together and vote for me."

The problem with that pitch is the younger and more diverse section of the Dem base doesn't just want someone like Biden who reminds them of who their grandparents might have been excited for two generations ago and might still have a "Biden for President 1984" bumper sticker on their 70s era Buick Skylark wood-paneled station wagon in the garage.

 

[soundforbjt]

Is anyone from the GOP even bothering to run against Trump this time?

Wouldn't matter, Trump has all of the Republicans in his pocket, none of them have the courage or balls to challenge him.

 

[Bitek]

It's obviously the bedrock foundation for these stupid candidates. Make shit tons of promises - except unlike past candidates have no real grasp of how one would implement such stupid proposals.

All I ask is that you guys pick either Biden, Buttigieg, or Yang. The rest are simply out of touch with reality and too stupid for the job.

The rest are basically just going to say:

"Well, we just... you know... tax the rich. Duh!"

"But ma'am, even if you tax the top 1% at 100%, you still wouldn't have anything remotely close to paying for your plan"

".... Well then.... BIDEN IS A DOO DOO HED!"

It has as much chance of Trump having Mexico pay for his Wall, him to get 6% GDP growth, pay off the national debt in 8yrs, and deliver a "totally beautiful" healthcare plan that only costs ppl $10/month.

Bullshit promises and none of them kept.

It ain't sexy, but aim for something realistic and may actually happen.

 

[Bitek]

If Biden is the nominee, the "VP problem" won't be with finding someone to help him gain votes but rather just limiting the disappointment in his own base. Old Joe isn't going to be an Obama type inspirational figure, he'll run on a "I'm a replacement for Trump who actually knows WTF I'm doing and OH YEAH I'M ALSO NOT A RACIST". Biden's pitch is ultimately to older white boomers who aren't yet comfortable putting a strongly opinionated woman like Warren in charge, basically "remember the 20th century when white dudes were always President and things worked, well I'm a white guy so you put 2 and 2 together and vote for me."

The problem with that pitch is the younger and more diverse section of the Dem base doesn't just want someone like Biden who reminds them of who their grandparents might have been excited for two generations ago and might still have a "Biden for President 1984" bumper sticker on their 70s era Buick Skylark wood-paneled station wagon in the garage.

Yep, the problem will be with the younger/progressive part of the base (Bernie Bros and the like.)

Throw em a bone else they'll be bitching on Twitter until election day. They'll still prob show up, but begrudgingly.

 

[Bitek]

Ha, thanks! I thought so, but wanted to make sure.

It's still a bit of dark humor tho.
I don't put her chances at 0, and I don't like it.

Yikes.

 

[Perknose]

Didn't see much of the first debate, but did watch the second. I don't get all this praise for Biden just because it wasn't a total disaster for him. Biden was uneven at best. Remembering all the way back to 2008, he just isn't that great of a debater and likely never will be. He's not going to do well against Trump in debates, if he gets the nomination which I think is not at all clear at this point.

If Biden is the candidate, what I would hope for in the Trump/Biden debates is for Joe to flat out and repeatedly call Trump a liar, a charlatan and a crook in the bluntest of terms.

This is the state of political theater these days. Decorum now seems to be for losers. That's why "everyone" was so disappointed with Mueller's testimony. He didn't "perform" well because he lives and breathes in an older age where "performance" isn't the point.

Anyone who doesn't now think that reality show type, over the top performance doesn't carry the day ought to reflect on how Kavanaugh won the day. Before the break and his Trump pep talk, he was losing. When he came back and went all red faced and faux indignant, he WON.

Joe has it in him to pull Trump's pants down and rhetorically bitch slap him in the starkest of terms. And THAT would propel him to victory, methinks. It's carnival time, folks. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but it is.

 

[Perknose]

It's obviously the bedrock foundation for these stupid candidates. Make shit tons of promises - except unlike past candidates have no real grasp of how one would implement such stupid proposals.

All I ask is that you guys pick either Biden, Buttigieg, or Yang. The rest are simply out of touch with reality and too stupid for the job.

The rest are basically just going to say:

"Well, we just... you know... tax the rich. Duh!"

"But ma'am, even if you tax the top 1% at 100%, you still wouldn't have anything remotely close to paying for your plan"

".... Well then.... BIDEN IS A DOO DOO HED!"

It seems someone hasn't read Elizabeth Warren's detailed policy proposals. 😉

 

[sportage]

I think its time to weed out at least half of the crowd.
Beto should be out and at least nine others. Probably more should go.
And so true that the senate must go democratic too.
If democrats can not take the senate, then why bother to take anything? Or retain control of anything?

We go thru this process, spend all that money to win the presidency but if the senate remains in republican control then that newly elected democrat president is not going to get his or her US Supreme court justice or pass any law protecting against foreign election interference or even get the chance to hold ex-president Donald Trump accountable.

Old Moscow Mitch has perfected the art of obstruction and down right denying that which is guaranteed a president by the US Constitution.
Moscow Mitch has taken the power of control to a whole new level.
Donald Trump may wish he could be dictator, but Moscow Mitch already is a functioning dictator. Maybe democrats should focus on retaking the senate and forget about winning the presidency. Donald Trump could remain president with no further harm to the country if only democrats could control the senate.

 

[woolfe9998]

If Biden is the candidate, what I would hope for in the Trump/Biden debates is for Joe to flat out and repeatedly call Trump a liar, a charlatan and a crook in the bluntest of terms.

Biden won't do that, though. It's not in his personality makeup.

This is the state of political theater these days. Decorum now seems to be for losers. That's why "everyone" was so disappointed with Mueller's testimony. He didn't "perform" well because he lives and breathes in an older age where "performance" isn't the point.

Anyone who doesn't now think that reality show type, over the top performance doesn't carry the day ought to reflect on how Kavanaugh won the day. Before the break and his Trump pep talk, he was losing. When he came back and went all red faced and faux indignant, he WON.

Joe has it in him to pull Trump's pants down and rhetorically bitch slap him in the starkest of terms. And THAT would propel him to victory, methinks. It's carnival time, folks. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but it is.

Joe misspeaks about once every 10 seconds. Saying things like: "the US creates 15% of the pollution in this country." Or one moment Harris' healthcare plan will cost $30 trillion, the next "$300 trillion." And on and on. This does not instill me with confidence.

When attacked, last night he was good about half the time (my guess where he was aware of the attack ahead of time) and the other half, he looked like a deer caught in the headlights. He isn't going to know what to do when Trump lobs one outrageous attack after another, based on random conspiracy theories or who knows what.

He's slowed down mentally, and he's too nice and too weak. Especially for Trump.

 

[Perknose]

Biden won't do that, though. It's not in his personality makeup.

Oh, I think it is. Whether he would do so effectively from a "political theater" standpoint is another question, though. It would have to calibrated just right, so as to be strong, "unfiltered" and direct, but not come across as unhinged.

Joe misspeaks about once every 10 seconds. Saying things like: "the US creates 15% of the pollution in this country." Or one moment Harris' healthcare plan will cost $30 trillion, the next "$300 trillion." And on and on. This does not instill me with confidence.

When attacked, last night he was good about half the time (my guess where he was aware of the attack ahead of time) and the other half, he looked like a deer caught in the headlights. He isn't going to know what to do when Trump lobs one outrageous attack after another, based on random conspiracy theories or who knows what.

He's slowed down mentally, and he's too nice and too weak. Especially for Trump.

I disagree that he's "too nice." I think he genuinely detests Trump and could well be provoked to go "old school" on him:

In March 2018, Biden huffed: “They asked me would I like to debate this gentleman, and I said no. I said, ‘If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him.”

“The idea that I’d be intimidated by Donald Trump? ... He’s the bully that I’ve always stood up to. He’s the bully that used to make fun when I was a kid that I stutter, and I’d smack him in the mouth.”

Joe is genuinely "old school," which is both a huge drawback but also, ironically, may make him the perfect guy to take down President Fat Fuck. Ok . . . not the perfect guy. But an American can hope!

 

[soulcougher73]

The way you and the other liberal idiots obsess over him, nice attempted homophobic insult by the way, it seems you have the fascination with Trump and not me. Some people are still trying to win the 2016 election.

That wasn't homophobic. I don't care if you have his cock in your mouth. Enjoy it. I'm just calling it what it is, cockpuppet. See what i did there?

 

[nOOky]

I saw enough to catch some memorable quotes. First thing I'll do is Clorox the white house lol. Biden could have defended himself by explaining that vice Presidents really don't have any power to do anything at all, except he kept claiming credit for doing stuff so he has to own that.

If you didn't know Yang you'd wonder wtf he was doing up there. And his one big policy agenda doesn't resonate with anyone except the freeloaders quite honestly. Gabbard looked stunning with the tan and blouse, but she seemed emotionless otherwise and didn't get any time to say much. Warren and Harris looked old up there on stage, as did Biden. I'm old, but I don't really want another old person in the white house. We need fresh new ideas, because ideas are what is needed. Those that have lost their ability to dream and think big have no place running for President imho.

I liked Booker's fire and attitude, but he's not white and we don't need another POC as POTUS because that is what drove the current batshit level of crazy among the deplorables in this country as they spent those 8 years under Obama plotting to get that uppity negro out and go back to an angry old white man.

 

[soulcougher73]

I really hope it doesnt end up being Biden. He is just so uninspiring old guard Dem. Boring. A male Hillary basically. Id be hard pressed to vote for him. Not that it would matter anyways given where i live. In fact i think ill just sit this one out since the EC will nullify my vote.

 

[SMOGZINN]

If Biden is the candidate, what I would hope for in the Trump/Biden debates is for Joe to flat out and repeatedly call Trump a liar, a charlatan and a crook in the bluntest of terms.

I agree, Trump does not debate he bullies. In the 2016 debates he practically never talked about issues in anything more than the most basic way, he never really addressed anyone else's arguments. 'I'll make everything great, you won't believe how great it will be!' or obvious lies 'Mexico will pay for it!' Whomever debates him this time can not let that pass. They must grill him on specifics, point out that if he won't tell you it is probably be cause he doesn't know, call him out on lies, and meet his unhinged rants calling with equal vitriol. If he comes up with a pithy nickname (which he will) use one of your own. Start addressing him as The Criminal in Chief, and starting your time with Thank you Mr. Obstructionist. Offer him some covfefe. Use his tactics against him, keep him on the defensive, and cause him to go off script.

Anyone who doesn't now think that reality show type, over the top performance doesn't carry the day ought to reflect on how Kavanaugh won the day. Before the break and his Trump pep talk, he was losing. When he came back and went all red faced and faux indignant, he WON.

While I agree with your point, I disagree with your example. That is not why Kavanaugh won. Kavanaugh could have put his head down on the desk and started snoring and he would have won because the Republicans were going to vote him in now matter what. It had already been decided and the confirmation hearing was just a formality.

 

[glenn1]

A male Hillary basically.

He's like the boring (in a good way) older brother of Trump who thinks that Cracker Barrel is exotic cuisine and the last good thing on TV was the Smothers Brothers show. They're both the baby boomers wearing dress socks with sandals on the beach but Trump is more in your face obnoxious New Yorker and Biden is the guy complaining at the VFW meeting about how the Afghan war vets have nothing on the WW2 guys. They both carry the same baggage of 1970s era bigotry and sexism but Biden does a better job of keeping it in check although it does slip out in his periodic "every Indian person owns a 7-11" type gaffes.

 

[jmagg]

Ryan seems reasonable, I'll listen fwiw.

 

[Moonbeam]

Once again you see only what you want to see.

I don't know. I see that humanity has a death wish and I can't imagine why I and so few of us who agree would want to see that. It seems to me that I see what I see because I am indifferent to what I want. I am a nobody and what I want has no meaning.

I didn't find Bernie appealing, I thought he did well and I acknowledged the qualities in him that I liked JUST LIKE I ACKNOWLEDGED HIS QUALITIES AND HIS APPEAL IN 2016.

You see, I hope, that here you said want I said, that you found him appealing.

The difference between you and me is that if Democrats don't nominate the person I think they should nominate that I don't go around disparaging the only candidate that has a possibility of beating trump, like you did in 2016.

I warned that choosing Hillary was a mistake because Democrats are tone deaf to message. You didn't listen then and you aren't listening now. You are free to blame me, but I blame your blindness for having to tell you. The question I put before you is how far can Democrats lean left and still win because the will to move left is becoming an irresistible force that the Party is going to have to deal with. You want to sweep in under the carpet with your incremental crap. We are in the dark ages politically, far far to the right, because Democrats cling to incremental. Millions of people are sick of it and if not productively engaged will lead to political violence.

Just so you know, just in case you weren't aware, the Russians targeted and relied on people like you. Your repeated claims of Republican talking points that you used and continue to use makes that abundantly clear.

How sad.

 

[Moonbeam]

What I took from the news reports that dissect the debate is that there is something wrong with anybody who has a chance to win in somebody's opinion. I watched the debate and came to no conclusions. I saw good stuff from them all. I find it sad that somebody like Yang can't fully present his case to the people. He's way out there with ideas that would change everything. The robots and AI are on the march and we will have to deal with the end of the need for massive amounts of human labor. I think the machines will have to work for the public good, not for individuals and corporations amassing huge quantities of wealth.

 

[esquared]

What I took from the news reports that dissect the debate is that there is something wrong with anybody who has a chance to win in somebody's opinion. I watched the debate and came to no conclusions. I saw good stuff from them all. I find it sad that somebody like Yang can't fully present his case to the people. He's way out there with ideas that would change everything. The robots and AI are on the march and we will have to deal with the end of the need for massive amounts of human labor. I think the machines will have to work for the public good, not for individuals and corporations amassing huge quantities of wealth.

I listened to Anderson Cooper's post-debate, interview with Andrew Yang. Very smart guy and I think his ideas are just out in front of others.
I particularly liked how he explained how we spend so much more on education but we're nowhere near the top or the middle for that matter, with positive results.
He explained how this can be changed. And yes, it has to do with the parents, spending time with their kids, among other things.
He talks about AI and automation of jobs
Here's last night's video.

 

[UglyCasanova]

This may have been posted already but does anybody know how I can watch the new debate(s)? Was there more than one, I have been so busy lately I haven’t payed much attention but would like to catch up.