During his appearance on the
All-In Podcast, which aired on October 31, 2025, Musk was explicitly asked about the scale of the fleet. His answer was unambiguous:
“We’re scaling up the number of cars to… probably we’ll have a thousand cars or more in the Bay Area by the end of this year, probably 500 or more in the greater Austin area.”
Based on observations from the Austin community and tracking of the vehicle VINs and plate numbers, the current Tesla Robotaxi fleet in Austin is estimated to be around 30 vehicles. In fact,
29 different Robotaxi license plates were spotted in Austin.
If Tesla “roughly doubles” that fleet in December, they will have approximately 60 vehicles on the road.
That is a far cry from the 500 that Musk projected just weeks ago. In fact, it represents a shortfall of nearly 90% against the target.
This massive miss in deployment targets is particularly ironic given Musk’s recent comments about competitors. When Waymo announced earlier this month that it had reached 2,500 active robotaxis across the US (with about 200 in Austin alone),
Musk scoffed, calling them “Rookie numbers.”
Yet, the data shows that Waymo currently operates a fleet in Austin that is roughly 3x to 4x larger than what Tesla hopes to have after its expansion next month. And unlike Tesla’s pilot, Waymo’s Austin fleet is operating fully driverless, without human chaperones in the front seat.