2025 EV & self-driving news

[Brovane]

The $7,500 EV Tax Credit Is Dead, And Ford Thinks Half Of EV Sales Will Go With It

The $7,500 EV Tax Credit Is Dead, And Ford Thinks Half Of EV Sales Will Go With It - Jalopnik

You didn't want cheap electric cars and breathable air, right?

www.jalopnik.com

I think there is a important distinction here. Of course EV sales are going to drop in Q4 of this year and going into next year like a rock. The ending of the Federal EV incentive in Q3 meant that anyone that was thinking about buying a EV pulled forward that purchase into Q3. The next couple of quarters are going to be lower for EV sales because of that pull forward effect. I expect by this time next year that EV sales will have recovered some of the lost ground. The silver lining in all of this that I expect the re-sale value of EV's to have less of a drop off because the incentive is no longer shaving $7500 off the price which does push the re-sale value lower.

Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley said he expects demand for all-electric vehicles to be slashed in half next month following the end of federal tax incentives on Wednesday.

Farley on Tuesday said he "wouldn't be surprised" if sales of EVs fell from a market share of around 10% to 12% this month — which is expected to be a record — to 5% after the incentive program ends.

"I think it's going to be a vibrant industry, but it's going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought, especially with the policy change in the tailpipe emissions, plus the $7,500 consumer incentive going away," he said during a Ford event about promoting skilled trades and workers in Detroit. "We're going to find out in a month. I wouldn't be surprised that the EV sales in the U.S. go down to 5%."

 

[manly]

I think there is a important distinction here. Of course EV sales are going to drop in Q4 of this year and going into next year like a rock. The ending of the Federal EV incentive in Q3 meant that anyone that was thinking about buying a EV pulled forward that purchase into Q3. The next couple of quarters are going to be lower for EV sales because of that pull forward effect. I expect by this time next year that EV sales will have recovered from of the lost ground. The silver lining in all of this that I expect the re-sale value of EV's to have less of a drop off because the incentive is no longer shaving $7500 off the price which does push the re-sale value lower.

Ford Motor CEO Jim Farley said he expects demand for all-electric vehicles to be slashed in half next month following the end of federal tax incentives on Wednesday.

Farley on Tuesday said he "wouldn't be surprised" if sales of EVs fell from a market share of around 10% to 12% this month — which is expected to be a record — to 5% after the incentive program ends.

"I think it's going to be a vibrant industry, but it's going to be smaller, way smaller than we thought, especially with the policy change in the tailpipe emissions, plus the $7,500 consumer incentive going away," he said during a Ford event about promoting skilled trades and workers in Detroit. "We're going to find out in a month. I wouldn't be surprised that the EV sales in the U.S. go down to 5%."

Agreed. With EV domestic market share of about 10%, there is still plenty of headroom. Even our state of CA is at about 25%, so we're also in the midst of a long transition. America's love affair with ICE (pardon the pun 🤮 ) continues, but I believe there is still growth to be had in all of the CARB-compliant states.

Farley is clearly also saying because Trump's EPA won't enforce any emissions compliance, Detroit just DGAF about selling EVs until that segment grows.

AFAIK BMW and other Euro automakers aren't walking away from EVs, and HMG is aggressively going after growth in 2026:

Hyundai gives the Ioniq 5 a huge price cut for model-year 2026

The Korean automaker’s price cut comes in as the clean vehicle tax credit dies.

arstechnica.com

 

[manly]

Plug-in Hybrid -Gate?

Plug-in hybrids pollute almost as much as petrol cars, report finds — Guardian US

Analysis of 800,000 European cars found real-world pollution from plug-in hybrids nearly five times greater than lab tests

apple.news

 

[Kaido]

Plug-in Hybrid -Gate?

Plug-in hybrids pollute almost as much as petrol cars, report finds — Guardian US

Analysis of 800,000 European cars found real-world pollution from plug-in hybrids nearly five times greater than lab tests

apple.news

Dang, it's VW #DieselGate all over again!

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) pump out nearly five times more planet-heating pollution than official figures show, a report has found.

The cars, which can run on electric batteries as well as combustion engines, have been promoted by European carmakers as a way to cover long distances in a single drive – unlike fully electric cars – while still reducing emissions.

Data shows PHEVs emit just 19% less CO2 than petrol and diesel cars, an analysis by the non-profit advocacy group Transport and Environment found on Thursday. Under laboratory tests, they were assumed to be 75% less polluting.

 

[Kaido]

I think this hits the nail on the head. Sadly.

 

[Brainonska511]

Dang, it's VW #DieselGate all over again!

Plug-in hybrids are only good if people actually plug them in. If you're not plugging them in, you just have a worse gas hybrid car and you should have just purchased a hybrid non-plug-in version.

 

[K1052]

Plug-in hybrids are only good if people actually plug them in. If you're not plugging them in, you just have a worse gas hybrid car and you should have just purchased a hybrid non-plug-in version.

Yes. When I had a 330e I could plug it in easily after every trip and used virtually no gas. If you can't do that then don't buy a PHEV.

 

[Kaido]

Plug-in hybrids are only good if people actually plug them in. If you're not plugging them in, you just have a worse gas hybrid car and you should have just purchased a hybrid non-plug-in version.

My buddy LOVES his Volt! Gas is for road trips, haha!



The Toyota RAV4 Prime has a 42-mile battery range, pretty cool!

 

[Kaido]

Plug-in hybrids are only good if people actually plug them in. If you're not plugging them in, you just have a worse gas hybrid car and you should have just purchased a hybrid non-plug-in version.

I'm also curious about long-range batteries. The Lucid Air Grand Touring has a 512-mile range, but goes for $120k: (plus I'm not personally interested in sedans)

Air | Lucid Motors

With extraordinary performance, range, efficiency, and safety. Lucid Air is the future of sustainable mobility, reimagining the electric car.

lucidmotors.com

The big feature for me on the Cybertruck was the 500-mile battery. The reality is that the max range offered is 325 miles & the weirdo battery extender was cancelled before it shipped. Plus the platform is now dead due to politics

I LOVE the EV VW Bus, but maxing out at 234 miles of range in 2025 is ridiculous, especially with a HUGE minivan footprint. The prices have started to settle down ($57k average now), but that should be 320+ miles even at that price.

Tesla has a 500-mile Model 3 in China now:

Tesla prepares to launch Model 3+ with 800 km (500 mile) range

Tesla is preparing to launch a new Model 3 variant in China, the Model 3+, which appears to be geared...

electrek.co

Solid-state batteries may be promising:

China overcomes key barriers to unlocking all-solid-state EV batteries with 1,000 km range

All-solid-state batteries may be the key to unlocking longer range, faster charging, and overall more efficient electric vehicles. After a...

electrek.co

China just launched a cheapie:

The first EV with a semi-solid-state battery launches for under $15,000

The world’s first mass-produced EV powered by a semi-solid-state battery is officially here, and it starts at less than $15,000....

electrek.co

And Mercedes has had some good tests:

A Mercedes EQS with solid-state batteries drove 750 miles and still had range to spare

Mercedes-Benz is calling the new battery tech “a true gamechanger” after hitting a new benchmark. A Mercedes EQS, powered by...

electrek.co

They dunno about EREV's long-term:

https://insideevs.com/news/776151/extended-range-evs-dead-end-study/

I'd be interested in a Scout EREV for sure!

 

[Fenixgoon]

The infrastructure is the "killer feature". 250-300 miles is more than enough. Hell, 100 miles is more than enough for most commuting. Beyond that it's about "refueling".

 

[Kaido]

Beyond that it's about "refueling".

I have an outlier need for a long EV range due to work travel (my ICE fills up in > 3 minutes & I have no chargers at my rental). No desire to switch until that happens, so I'm in no rush! Well, the long-range Model S is 410 miles ($95k) & the long-range Lucid Air is 512 miles ($120k), but I don't want a sedan lol. Or a $2,000/mo car payment!! hahaha

For most people, 300 miles + Supercharging is fantastic! I see a TON of the new Model Y's around. We'd like to get a Slate as our city car at some point. I dunno what the actual price will end up being (re: $39k Cybertruck lol). As of last month, average price for a new car was $50,800 & the average new EV was $58,124. Will be cool to see a super-budget EV!

 

[sdifox]

Maybe GM should have advertised the BrightDrop more... now the electric van is toast

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/gm-to-end-electric-van-production-at-cami-plant-in-ingersoll-ont-9.6946611

 

[Fenixgoon]

Maybe GM should have advertised the BirghtDrop more... now the electric van is toast

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/gm-to-end-electric-van-production-at-cami-plant-in-ingersoll-ont-9.6946611

Wow yeah first time I've heard of it

 

[sdifox]

Wow yeah first time I've heard of it

Maybe the Canadian government can step in and buy the whole plant.

 

[KMFJD]

Look at these little things i see here now....lmao....probably a bit safer than the motorcycles everyone is on



Anaig Shine

 

[Dr. Detroit]

Scout Motors has 130,000 reservations and more than 80% have requested to have the gasoline generator for "extended range" in their orders. Folks do not want Electric only.

https://insideevs.com/news/777407/scout-motors-erev-reservastions/

 

[lxskllr]

I'd trade the generator for an extended cab with a longer bed instead of the fucking crew cab. With my extra bed space, I can put my own damned generator back there for the once every couple years I need the extra range.

 

[Greenman]

I'd trade the generator for an extended cab with a longer bed instead of the fucking crew cab. With my extra bed space, I can put my own damned generator back there for the once every couple years I need the extra range.

Long beds don't sell. I was looking at the Ford site a few weeks back and they don't offer a long bed in the F150 series, F250 and up only. The F150 is now the family station wagon or just a tow unit. Though it's rare to see one actually equipped for towing.

 

[Dr. Detroit]

Long beds don't sell. I was looking at the Ford site a few weeks back and they don't offer a long bed in the F150 series, F250 and up only. The F150 is now the family station wagon or just a tow unit. Though it's rare to see one actually equipped for towing.

Yes they do! You can get a 8' box on the F150 XL regular cab. It's a contractors special. $40,580 with the 17" steelies.

And most people who tow use it for a 4,000 - 6,000 ski boats, a few quads or a side by side, or maybe a light travel trailer. Folks who tow, opt for diesel, and 3/4 or 1-ton trucks. So yeah, aside from the Factory installed tow package - you are not going to see a F150 towing anything substantial.

 

[Greenman]

Yes they do! You can get a 8' box on the F150 XL regular cab. It's a contractors special. $40,580 with the 17" steelies.

And most people who tow use it for a 4,000 - 6,000 ski boats, a few quads or a side by side, or maybe a light travel trailer. Folks who tow, opt for diesel, and 3/4 or 1-ton trucks. So yeah, aside from the Factory installed tow package - you are not going to see a F150 towing anything substantial.

View attachment 133068

Clearly I'm wrong, but I don't see how I missed that. With a super cab it would be perfect for most contractors.

 

[lxskllr]

My 2016 is an extended cab/full bed. I could live with a shorter bed to make it easier to maneuver, but I like having the room. I don't have to fit everything in like a game of tetris.

 

[bbhaag]

Scout Motors has 130,000 reservations and more than 80% have requested to have the gasoline generator for "extended range" in their orders. Folks do not want Electric only.

https://insideevs.com/news/777407/scout-motors-erev-reservastions/

So Americans don't want electric trucks......I am Jacks complete lack of surprise.

 

[bbhaag]

Yes they do! You can get a 8' box on the F150 XL regular cab. It's a contractors special. $40,580 with the 17" steelies.

And most people who tow use it for a 4,000 - 6,000 ski boats, a few quads or a side by side, or maybe a light travel trailer. Folks who tow, opt for diesel, and 3/4 or 1-ton trucks. So yeah, aside from the Factory installed tow package - you are not going to see a F150 towing anything substantial.

View attachment 133068

How much more does it cost if you want to option the 4x4 option instead of the 4x2?

 

[Kaido]

So Americans don't want electric trucks......I am Jacks complete lack of surprise.

I think they do, they just want range. To me, that was the biggest selling point of the prototype Cybertruck...500 to 620-mile range. And also the limitation of the VW Buzz..HUGE van footprint & a measly 234 miles of range!

100% am interested in a Harvester range-extender edition of the Scout!!

 

[bbhaag]

I think they do, they just want range. To me, that was the biggest selling point of the prototype Cybertruck...500 to 620-mile range. And also the limitation of the VW Buzz..HUGE van footprint & a measly 234 miles of range!

100% am interested in a Harvester range-extender edition of the Scout!!

View attachment 133074

Yeah you're right. Range anxiety is higher among EV truck buyers compared to your average EV buyer purchasing a crossover.