2022 US midterms election watch party/thread

[eelw]

no one noticing Wisconsin?

Yeah Johnson in the lead. But at least Nevada Dem leading

 

[BoomerD]

Please please please!!!

November 8, 2022 General Election Results - CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 3 - U.S. Representative

results.vote.wa.gov

 

[K1052]

Fetterman for President 2024

Dems are going to run the largest candidates they can find next cycle.

 

[Paratus]

So am I wrong or is 50-51 Dems in the senate a possibility?

Also is Dem control of the house still in play?

 

[K1052]

Michaels conceded to Evers in WI gov race.

 

[ivwshane]

Red wave is coming guys!!!!!


😂😂😂😛

 

[K1052]

So am I wrong or is 50-51 Dems in the senate a possibility?

A very strong possibility.

Also is Dem control of the house still in play?

I doubt it but R margin likely to be very narrow (10ish seats possibly).

 

[ondma]

Well, have to concede, not nearly as bad as I expected for the Dems. Seems the polls were much closer than in 2020 and 2016 presidential elections. Would be great if Dems could hold the house and senate. If the Reps control either chamber, we are looking at 2 years of essentially getting nothing done.

 

[eelw]

So am I wrong or is 50-51 Dems in the senate a possibility?

Also is Dem control of the house still in play?

R’s will turn out more in run off. So senate will probably stay 50-50. House looks to be 218-217. So MTG is the house version of Manchin

 

[linkgoron]

So am I wrong or is 50-51 Dems in the senate a possibility?

I think thats the most likely scenario, currently.

Also is Dem control of the house still in play?

Yes but unlikely IMO. Might've gone another way if Democrats didn't lose all of their redistricting cases (losing both in R courts when gerrymandered and losing in D courts when gerrymandering)

 

[Muse]

Fetterman declared winner by ABC! The first flip, and gives 68% chance of Democrats holding the Senate, according to ABC prognostication. This at about 1:30AM EST 11/09/2022.

 

[eelw]

4 state abortion referendums. 3 D states to approve. The lone R state, do you want ban abortion, narrow 3 point for NO

 

[Dave_5k]

Might've gone another way if Democrats didn't lose all of their redistricting cases (losing both in R couryst when gerrymandered and losing in D courts when gerrymandering)

Yep, New York case alone cost the Dems at least 4 or 5 house seats - by making races balanced rather than super-gerrymandered like the Republican states succeeded at (hi Florida! where DeSantis is taking credit for 3 house seats he personally gerrymandered to Republicans)

House could still easily end up ~225 republican (vs. ~210 dems), +/- a few.

 

[Muse]

Is the House more bipartisan than the Senate? IOW, is a slim R majority in the House less of an issue than if it were in the Senate?

 

[Muse]

Yeah Johnson in the lead. But at least Nevada Dem leading

ABC says Johnson's lead looks in danger because a lot of Democratic leaning areas not counted. Also, Democrat in NV may well prevail due to the intense ground game there. Both races too close to call yet.

Abortion issue nationwide is looking more on people's minds than some have been saying. Solid block of states where abortion is banned, basically midwest to the south, and incredibly contiguous. Makes me think I wouldn't want to live there.

 

[linkgoron]

ABC says Johnson's lead looks in danger because a lot of Democratic leaning areas not counted. Also, Democrat in NV may well prevail due to the intense ground game there. Both races too close to call yet.

NYT needle has been pretty Bullish on a R win in Wisconsin so far, giving them a 88% chance of winning.

 

[eelw]

Is the House more bipartisan than the Senate? IOW, is a slim R majority in the House less of an issue than if it were in the Senate?

With the likes of MTG and Gaetz and Jordan, nope. The spineless one can’t control his conference. Moscow Mitch controls his members even the outspoken ones like Cruz and Paul

 

[Moonbeam]

That really are that dumb. It's pathetic. It's the most basic critical thinking skills. This is not complex.

For a long time technological progress in America produced a standard of living that a worker could raise a family on. But business got wise to the fact that foreign labor would work harder for a fraction of that so jobs went elsewhere. Now mainly only immigrants will do manual labor.

Blue collar workers are easily led to feel aggrieved. Insecurity breeds hatred. I think that stupidity is actually fear.

 

[Muse]

With the likes of MTG and Gaetz and Jordan, nope. The spineless one can’t control his conference. Moscow Mitch controls his members even the outspoken ones like Cruz and Paul

Those are just 3 votes out of over 400. The spineless one? Kevin McCarthy? He'll have a tough time herding his flock. He's a congressman from California but he wouldn't stand the ghost of a chance to win a state office or as a senator. He only wins because he's in a red district.

 

[eelw]

Those are just 3 votes out of over 400. The spineless one? Kevin McCarthy? He'll have a tough time herding his flock.

Yup McCarthy. As much as he was gloating just now, I bet he won’t get the votes to be speaker. The 3 I mentioned will stop him

 

[Muse]

Yup McCarthy. As much as he was gloating just now, I bet he won’t get the votes to be speaker. The 3 I mentioned will stop him

Interesting.

 

[lsd]

Has America aborted the red wave? I sure fucking hope so..

 

[UNCjigga]

Gen-Z/voters under 30 be like "you're welcome!" Stopped the red wave bloodbath it seems. Now Dems need to do all they can to keep them engaged--I don't think pro-choice and $10K off on student loans is gonna be enough. This is the generation that can't afford to buy a home.

 

[alien42]

R’s will turn out more in run off. So senate will probably stay 50-50. House looks to be 218-217. So MTG is the house version of Manchin

not necessarily in GA, i bet a lot of Kemp voters won't show up for a run off.

 

[manly]

Those are just 3 votes out of over 400. The spineless one? Kevin McCarthy? He'll have a tough time herding his flock. He's a congressman from California but he wouldn't stand the ghost of a chance to win a state office or as a senator. He only wins because he's in a red district.

Just 3? At least half the GOP caucus in the House is an absolute shit show. The roots of this are in the Tea Party early in Obama's presidency. They gave John Boehner and Paul Ryan all kinds of grief, and their numbers have only grown as they morphed into Trumpists. Basically there are two large factions in the GOP, and they don't really see eye to eye all the time (not so much on policy, but on how crazy you should be).

Senators tend to be older and somewhat more moderate because they have to win an entire state, and not just a polarized district. McCarthy, if elected Speaker, will have most likely a single digit minority and the crazies in his caucus will make his life miserable.

not necessarily in GA, i bet a lot of Kemp voters won't show up for a run off.

Can Stacey Abrams engineer another run-off (pre) Christmas miracle?