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2022 US midterms election watch party/thread

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Zor Prime said:
You can go to CNN and dial down into the state. The only county that Masto is leading is in Clark by 5 points. It's the only county where Mastro has a lead. There's a one or two counties with a good deal of votes left to tally. It's a statistical improbability if not impossibility at this point for Masto to win.
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So uhm, that statistical impossibility happened exactly as I said was likely.
 
Meghan54 said:
"The main difference: Florida doesn’t have an avalanche of mail ballots on Election Day. The state doesn’t allow mail voters to drop off their ballots anywhere but the county elections office on Tuesday.

"Arizona does, and Maricopa County voters took advantage of late voting this year more than ever before. The county received 290,000 mail-in ballots on Election Day, according to County Supervisors Chairman Bill Gates, the most ever, and a 70% increase from 2020’s general election.
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<= Arizona voter
While I was voting in person, several voters brought in their mail-in ballots to discuss proper signing and sealing with poll workers. Republican FUD created so much uncertainty about mail-in ballots that folks were concerned their ballots would be invalidated. Republican lies are partially responsible for the spike in election day mail-in ballot drop-offs.
 
ondma said:
Yea, unless the dems manage to win both houses, I am looking for two years of total gridlock. If the Reps come back to win both, it will be a total s***show.
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The problem is that a GQP majority in the House will wreak havoc. Endless investigations and hearings, potential government shutdown, and the Freedumb Caucus is already demanding impeachment of not just POTUS, but some cabinet members as well.

I understand the gridlock argument, but the House will turn into an around the clock clown show if the GOP wins the majority, as is still quite likely. Maybe that sets them up for even greater failure in 2024, but I'm not sure if we all want to find out necessarily.
 
How would this have played out with one less scotus, if the R had not actually caught the car and buggered Roe? Play it out. Uuge red wave right? Trump getting that boost to start his campaign. It just seems to me that its always one two three if’s thats the difference between normalcy and straight up Q nazis.
 
Yeah if no abortion/democracy wasn’t on the ballot, economy would have doomed Dems

As to MAGAtards controlling the house. Yes investigations from committees can’t be stopped. But doubt government shutdowns will happen. The spineless one can’t stop than vote from going to the floor. A few sane Republicans will vote with the Dems to pass it. But other spending bills will be greatly get watered down or full of poison pills than Schumer won’t bother bringing them up in the senate. No different than the stack of bills Moscow Mitch let rot on his desk.
 
eelw said:
Yeah if no abortion/democracy wasn’t on the ballot, economy would have doomed Dems

As to MAGAtards controlling the house. Yes investigations from committees can’t be stopped. But doubt government shutdowns will happen. The spineless one can’t stop than vote from going to the floor. A few sane Republicans will vote with the Dems to pass it. But other spending bills will be greatly get watered down or full of poison pills than Schumer won’t bother bringing them up in the senate. No different than the stack of bills Moscow Mitch let rot on his desk.
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Plus the GOP is being shown that being belligerent clownshoe wearing asshats results in them losing ground. They might finally be forced to move closer to Dems, at least outwardly.
 
HomerJS said:
Sounds unconstitutional. Wonder why Bashear didn’t challenge?
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I think this is dependent on state constitutions, and many states have different rules for filling vacant seats to finish out a term. Some, the governor can appoint whomever they won't, some it is required to be the same party. Some require s special election.
 
eelw said:
Yeah if no abortion/democracy wasn’t on the ballot, economy would have doomed Dems

As to MAGAtards controlling the house. Yes investigations from committees can’t be stopped. But doubt government shutdowns will happen. The spineless one can’t stop than vote from going to the floor. A few sane Republicans will vote with the Dems to pass it. But other spending bills will be greatly get watered down or full of poison pills than Schumer won’t bother bringing them up in the senate. No different than the stack of bills Moscow Mitch let rot on his desk.
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Trump was on the ballot, and all but a few of his big endorsements flopped hard. He is the GOP's gift to the Dems that just keeps on giving.
The majority of Americans are sick and tired of MAGA extremists who brag about how they want to screw over everyone else in the name of their own freedom and cry victim anytime someone else's freedom gets in the way. The majority of Americans do not support the MAGA mentality of conspiracy theories and bigotries and burning down our institutions instead of compromising with our fellow Americans.

Without Trump and the MAGAs, without the nihilistic alt-right trolls, the Q Karen bible-thumpers, and the racist gun-toting uncles whose only solution to crime is police brutality, the Dems would have been absolutely crushed this year.

That the GOP and the conservatives are unlikely to learn from this lesson should be good news for the Dems.
 
Vic said:
Trump was on the ballot, and all but a few of his big endorsements flopped hard. He is the GOP's gift to the Dems that just keeps on giving.
The majority of Americans are sick and tired of MAGA extremists who brag about how they want to screw over everyone else in the name of their own freedom and cry victim anytime someone else's freedom gets in the way. The majority of Americans do not support the MAGA mentality of conspiracy theories and bigotries and burning down our institutions instead of compromising with our fellow Americans.

Without Trump and the MAGAs, without the nihilistic alt-right trolls, the Q Karen bible-thumpers, and the racist gun-toting uncles whose only solution to crime is police brutality, the Dems would have been absolutely crushed this year.

That the GOP and the conservatives are unlikely to learn from this lesson should be good news for the Dems.
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Completely this.


It's why the Trump fluffers are absolutely besides themselves right now. Seems the fraud excuse is hard to get out with a straight face when you'll already trying to milk Kemp and DeSantis victories for every last drop of that dear, sweet copium.

Challenge for all - when's the last time you heard of someone with a projected 2% of winning who then won the election?

Quite the crazy ass flip there, wow. Grats Dems. And a heartfelt 'sorry there bud' for Nate Silver, ouch.


someflip.PNG
 
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kage69 said:
Completely this.


It's why the Trump fluffers are absolutely besides themselves right now. Seems the fraud excuse is hard to get out with a straight face when you'll already trying to milk Kemp and DeSantis victories for every last drop of dear, sweet copium.

Challenge for all - when's the last time you heard of someone with a projected 2% of winning who then won the election?

Quite the crazy ass flip there, wow. Grats Dems. And a heartfelt 'sorry there bud' for Nate Silver, ouch.


View attachment 71089
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While 538 clearly got this call wrong there were about 500 races this election cycle so if your forecast is properly calibrated about ten of these should happen.
 
i
K1052 said:
All the Dems out here be sure to lift a glass to Harry Reid tonight.
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Some in depth info here, including Jon Ralston's insights about NV politics and the continuing power of Harry Reid's work (scroll down for that or read all of it). This link should work for 14 days, i.e. until Nov. 27, 2022:

www.nytimes.com

Midterm Elections 2022: Democrats Keep Senate Control as Republicans Weigh Party’s Future

As election deniers continued losing, many Republicans saw their party’s performance as evidence that former President Donald Trump was a political liability.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Hopefully, you can see this in that link:

Jon Ralston on Nevada politics and Cortez Masto’s victory (which he predicted).
 
kage69 said:
Completely this.


It's why the Trump fluffers are absolutely besides themselves right now. Seems the fraud excuse is hard to get out with a straight face when you'll already trying to milk Kemp and DeSantis victories for every last drop of that dear, sweet copium.

Challenge for all - when's the last time you heard of someone with a projected 2% of winning who then won the election?

Quite the crazy ass flip there, wow. Grats Dems. And a heartfelt 'sorry there bud' for Nate Silver, ouch.


View attachment 71089
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My hometown of Vancouver, WA finally had enough of the gun-toting MAGA racists that make up much of the rest of WA-3 and came out to vote in force is what happened there.
That was a spectacular misstep for the GOP, as the primaried Herrera Beutler would have won re-election easily. But oh no, she voted to impeach Trump, so they had to replace her with a MAGA loyalist who would bring out the vote for the Dems.
 
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Muse said:
i
Some in depth info here, including Jon Ralston's insights about NV politics and the continuing power of Harry Reid's work (scroll down for that or read all of it). This link should work for 14 days, i.e. until Nov. 27, 2022:

www.nytimes.com

Midterm Elections 2022: Democrats Keep Senate Control as Republicans Weigh Party’s Future

As election deniers continued losing, many Republicans saw their party’s performance as evidence that former President Donald Trump was a political liability.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

Hopefully, you can see this in that link:

Jon Ralston on Nevada politics and Cortez Masto’s victory (which he predicted).
Click to expand...

Ralston is the one exception to the unbreakable commandment of "Thou shall not try to interpret early voting". He understands the state way better than anybody who parachutes in every couple years.

And yes Nevada Dems have organized a hell of a machine that spits out victories in what would otherwise be a much more purple resulting state. Due credit to Reid and his people. Basically the polar opposite of FL democrats lol.
 
zinfamous said:
I think this is dependent on state constitutions, and many states have different rules for filling vacant seats to finish out a term. Some, the governor can appoint whomever they won't, some it is required to be the same party. Some require s special election.
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We had 2 State Constitutional amendments on the ballet this time around. One wanted to make 3 or 4 changes to the ability of the legislature to call special sessions ect. Other was for abortion.

Anything the KY R legislature wants to change can't be good.
 
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