2022 US midterms election watch party/thread

[ondma]

So far they cannot agree that they've agreed on who will be speaker. Freedom Caucus types are already making trouble. I think massive chaos then a few Rs in Biden +5 or more districts saying "f this".

We shall see. Just look at what McCarthy (and others) did after Jan 6 though. Roundly criticized Trump, but pretty soon was visiting MaraLago and was back to toeing the Trump agenda.

 

[Dave_5k]

One updated projection (although assumes a few non-called races), has House coming down to the wire mostly in California which is one of the most extremely lagged states in handling election ballots. Note that not all ballots are even in the hands of elections officials yet in California - mail ballots must be accepted through Tuesday next week in California, if postmarked on or before election day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591486830805127169

Edit: Note CO-3 is Boebert, which I've pretty much written off now sadly. Republicans currently lead all 7 of these races, 3 with strong Republican leads including CO-3. Dems getting 4 of these would be an unlikely stretch, still looks like ~219-221 R's in House as most likely.

CA-13 within 100 votes, with only ~60% counted
CA-22 ~3k Republican lead (out of 60k), but only ~50% counted
CA-41 1.6k Republican lead (out of 130k), with ~60% counted
CA-3 is a stretch, 10k Republican lead (out of 170k), but only ~50% counted
CA-45 looks to be Republican, 13k R lead (out of 160k), ~70% counted
AZ-6 3k Republican lead (out of 300k), with ~83% counted

 

[HomerJS]

Uhhh, somebody said that within the last two months. One of our resident GQP. I quote responded to that insane claim

They said that within the last year. Anyone have a guess unless that person wants to admit it?

 

[HomerJS]

Trump spokesperson announced Trump will declare Nov 15

Was going to ignore now I gotta watch esp Fox News reaction. They were beginning to throw him under the bus

 

[MrSquished]

They said that within the last year. Anyone have a guess unless that person wants to admit it?

It was either Greenman, BlackAngst or PCGeek.

 

[woolfe9998]

Trump was not the favorite in 2016, but he stormed to the front of a crowded pack of lying sacks of shit. An early favorite was Jeb Bush, as he was moderate and came from a "famous" house. Turns out those were liabilities, and not assets.


I don't know exactly because I'm not aware of any computer models after Election night (i.e. 538 or NYT "needle") but the chances are still pretty low. It would take at least a couple comebacks in lean-right California districts to hold the House. My random guess is 25% chance at best.

If Dems held 217 seats (minority by 1), I'm not sure the GOP could elect a Speaker LOL.

538 has it at 16%.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Wondering what happens if they end up with only a one seat lead. Dems could potentially pass more legislation, particularly if they win in NV and GA both for Senate. They won't need both Mansion and Sinema anymore. All they'd have to do is get one GOP vote in the House.

 

[Leeea]

Wondering what happens if they end up with only a one seat lead.

The republican chair would stop that. They would be all but powerless.

What they would end up doing is working with the chair on compromise legislation.

 

[MrSquished]

I find it still sad overall that this is considered a good midterms for the Dems when the GQP won as many as they did. If this country was more sane and had values it would have been a blue wave. I mean I'll take overperforming, but it's still a sad testament about this country.

 

[woolfe9998]

I find it still sad overall that this is considered a good midterms for the Dems when the GQP won as many as they did. If this country was more sane and had values it would have been a blue wave. I mean I'll take overperforming, but it's still a sad testament about this country.

In the past 23 mid term elections (since 1934), the POTUS' party has only gained seats in the House three times, and only twice in the Senate. And even then, they barely gained. That's probably why.

Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections | The American Presidency Project

www.presidency.ucsb.edu

 

[eelw]

I find it still sad overall that this is considered a good midterms for the Dems when the GQP won as many as they did. If this country was more sane and had values it would have been a blue wave. I mean I'll take overperforming, but it's still a sad testament about this country.

But but but my pocket book!!!

 

[eelw]

Sigh



Conspiracy theory, but someone apparently saw Katie Hobbs walk by in the counting area. But the election board tweeted about. Not all woman wearing glasses is Katie Hobbs!!!

 

[Udgnim]

I find it still sad overall that this is considered a good midterms for the Dems when the GQP won as many as they did. If this country was more sane and had values it would have been a blue wave. I mean I'll take overperforming, but it's still a sad testament about this country.

unfortunately gerrymandering is still a thing and isn't going away anytime soon

 

[Gardener]

He barely won in 2016, and lost to a rather par (albeit old) candidate as an incumbent. He's an albatross at this point.

He won the GOP primaries, decisively. If he runs again he will be the party candidate. After the last election cycle, I look forward to Trump being the GOP candidate in perpetuity.

 

[amenx]

At start of the election, the right wing media were spouting in unison about not a 'red wave' but a 'red tsunami'. A compilation of them besides themselves with their lofty expectations. And the aftermath..

 

[manly]

The best thing is he'll refuse to actually fade away and just stoke constant intraparty drama. The dumbfucks should've impeached him after 1/6.

Hate to be a pedant, but he was impeached for 1/6 by the House. However, the weak ass Senate GOP caucus wouldn't dare to convict him.

538 has it at 16%.

Politics News | Breaking Political News, Video & Analysis-ABC News

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Wondering what happens if they end up with only a one seat lead. Dems could potentially pass more legislation, particularly if they win in NV and GA both for Senate. They won't need both Mansion and Sinema anymore. All they'd have to do is get one GOP vote in the House.

That's the pre-election model. I'm talking real-time, which I'm sure some web site has a model, but I only care about well known election forecasters. 2016 proved that most of the quants doing forecasting were well off the mark (mainly because the polls missed by a mile). Many of the models had Hillary at 95%+ to win.

Wouldn't Dems need the House Speakership to actually pass legislation? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would be very interesting if Pelosi or someone else is chosen as Speaker if the Dems have a net 1-2 seat minority. Technically, the Speaker of the House doesn't even need to be a House congressperson.

 

[hal2kilo]

Is Clark scheduled any more drops tonight?

No. (referring to last night)

 

[ondma]

In the past 23 mid term elections (since 1934), the POTUS' party has only gained seats in the House three times, and only twice in the Senate. And even then, they barely gained. That's probably why.

Seats in Congress Gained/Lost by the President's Party in Mid-Term Elections | The American Presidency Project

www.presidency.ucsb.edu

Granted, but the Reps have never put up so many crackpots and and crazies as they did this year. Just look at who got re-elected, and even when the dems won, it was a close race like in Penn and GA, which should have been landslides for Federman and Warnock.

 

[hal2kilo]

The best thing is he'll refuse to actually fade away and just stoke constant intraparty drama. The dumbfucks should've impeached him after 1/6.

Mitch has to regret not taking the opportunity after Jan. 6. Watch him retire.

 

[hal2kilo]

One updated projection (although assumes a few non-called races), has House coming down to the wire mostly in California which is one of the most extremely lagged states in handling election ballots. Note that not all ballots are even in the hands of elections officials yet in California - mail ballots must be accepted through Tuesday next week in California, if postmarked on or before election day.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591486830805127169

Edit: Note CO-3 is Boebert, which I've pretty much written off now sadly. Republicans currently lead all 7 of these races, 3 with strong Republican leads including CO-3. Dems getting 4 of these would be an unlikely stretch, still looks like ~219-221 R's in House as most likely.

CA-13 within 100 votes, with only ~60% counted
CA-22 ~3k Republican lead (out of 60k), but only ~50% counted
CA-41 1.6k Republican lead (out of 130k), with ~60% counted
CA-3 is a stretch, 10k Republican lead (out of 170k), but only ~50% counted
CA-45 looks to be Republican, 13k R lead (out of 160k), ~70% counted
AZ-6 3k Republican lead (out of 300k), with ~83% counted

Sounds like an indictment of the PO. Can't get a letter mailed in the same state in less than 5 days?

 

[ondma]

Hate to be a pedant, but he was impeached for 1/6 by the House. However, the weak ass Senate GOP caucus wouldn't dare to convict him.


That's the pre-election model. I'm talking real-time, which I'm sure some web site has a model, but I only care about well known election forecasters. 2016 proved that most of the quants doing forecasting were well off the mark (mainly because the polls missed by a mile). Many of the models had Hillary at 95%+ to win.

Wouldn't Dems need the House Speakership to actually pass legislation? I'm not saying it's impossible, but it would be very interesting if Pelosi or someone else is chosen as Speaker if the Dems have a net 1-2 seat minority. Technically, the Speaker of the House doesn't even need to be a House congressperson.

Yea, unless the dems manage to win both houses, I am looking for two years of total gridlock. If the Reps come back to win both, it will be a total s***show.

 

[Thump553]

Sounds like an indictment of the PO. Can't get a letter mailed in the same state in less than 5 days?

Well Trump's lackey did do a superb job of gutting the post office-in order to mess up the 2020 mail-ins. He had millions of dollars of equipment trashed with no replacements in place, etc.

 

[Bitek]

There is an outside chance but more likely the GOP ends up with a 1-3 seat majority. Such a slim majority is a first class ticket to chaos and parliamentary games galore.

i think we are near optimal outcome if Ds hold the Senate.

Biden has passed a ton of legislation, and other than ukr funds, I don't think he *needs* anymore big spending.

He can focus on the infrastructure projects, foreign policy (and inflation). Senate for judicial nominees, then just let the Rs act like complete clowns for the next two years.

The last bit is perfect bc it creates strong contrast for 2024, and makes Rs accountable for something.

Imperfect Biden getting shit done, or complete crazy town.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

Keep in mind bros it’s not over yet Republicans could narrowly control both houses.

 

[Zorba]

Hate to be a pedant, but he was impeached for 1/6 by the House. However, the weak ass Senate GOP caucus wouldn't dare to convict him.

I know. Although only 10 of the shitstains voted to impeach. IIRC.

 

[zinfamous]

Still funny as shit that these bubble-dwelling degenerates actually thought that their brand of garbage is what the country needed or wanted, whether Dems keep the house or Reps barely take it due to gerrymandering.

they'll still believe they are popular. They will never accept the results.

Horrible people think horrible things and do horrible things. This is the GOP for 5 decades now.