• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

2020 report sees India, China as top powers

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.
By 2020, China's gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India's GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies.

I wonder where the European economies stack up since their populations are shrinking and aging while India & China are modernizing and the US is exploding in population.
 
Originally posted by: Infohawk
Originally posted by: Stunt
I hope that india and china are trying to improve living standards and not just use growth as a means to build weaponry and military.

The US isn't setting a good precedent in this regard.

The US isn't setting any precedent at all really. This is hardly the first time advancements in military have followed economic improvements.
 
Originally posted by: raildogg
wait, thats totally wrong. These are laborers, not soldiers. There is a difference.

nice reading...
are you only going to nitpick parts of your article...
you article is supporting my point wholeheartedly...:thumbsup:

Officially considered as cheap laborers, the 700,000 Chinese troops have had experience in active military service. They are being used by the Chinese to protect their oil properties in Sudan. The Telegraph report further claimed that the troops are under the control of China?s Special Services and agents who claim to be managers and executives. China has a history of coercing countries to get what it wants and its history in the energy sector is no different. Some years ago China had reportedly bullied Kazakhstan into signing energy deals with it.
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publica...ankorder/2003rank.html
http://www.studentsoftheworld....s/wfb/def/2003rank.php

Look at the top 50
Look at the bottom 50

Europe = owned.

The numbers for actual GDP growth rate differ in almost every site, but one thing is for sure. Europe is not growing.

Does it matter if Europe grows?
It is perfectly sustainable as is...they aren't trying to globally dominate.
besides having a gdp of 11trillion still gives you a lot of swing.
 
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

I think the data I showed was old. I found a site that said Iraq grew by 31% since Saddam was kicked out. This is of course without sanctions.
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

I think the data I showed was old. I found a site that said Iraq grew by 31% since Saddam was kicked out. This is of course without sanctions.
2004estimate??
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

I think the data I showed was old. I found a site that said Iraq grew by 31% since Saddam was kicked out. This is of course without sanctions.
2004estimate??


n/m. The data I saw was for 2005 and that is only if they have a constant flow of their resources, which I doubt will happen. That 30% increase also takes into account the -20% this year and the previous years. Basically it will be good if they can get it to at least pre-war again (which wasnt good to begin with).
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

That's because they're going through a war. I would wager that their growth will be better in the future than what it previously was.
 
Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

That's because they're going through a war. I would wager that their growth will be better in the future than what it previously was.

Do you think it will be in the $120 billion range? This is what it was before Saddam came into power. During that time Iraq was the most advanced country in that region. When Saddam came into power the GDP fell like a rock.

Right now I believe it is around 20 billion?
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publica...ankorder/2003rank.html
http://www.studentsoftheworld....s/wfb/def/2003rank.php

Look at the top 50
Look at the bottom 50

Europe = owned.

The numbers for actual GDP growth rate differ in almost every site, but one thing is for sure. Europe is not growing.

Wow, those growth numbers are pretty surprising. The US seems to be doing pretty damn good, especially among the more developed countries in the world - it's near the top. Seems to be going pretty good.

Europe seems to be suffering from some slow growth. Germany is at -.10 with Switzerland at -0.5!
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: raildogg
heh, look at Afghanistan grow
Look at iraq not grow 🙂
Must be going through a recession...
Should get rid of current administration...bad for the economy

That's because they're going through a war. I would wager that their growth will be better in the future than what it previously was.

Do you think it will be in the $120 billion range? This is what it was before Saddam came into power. During that time Iraq was the most advanced country in that region. When Saddam came into power the GDP fell like a rock.

Right now I believe it is around 20 billion?

I have no idea, but I would imagine that in raw numbers in today's times they should be able to at least match that eventually. At least now the sanctions will be off for them, too.
 
Originally posted by: Stunt
Originally posted by: Aimster
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publica...ankorder/2003rank.html
http://www.studentsoftheworld....s/wfb/def/2003rank.php

Look at the top 50
Look at the bottom 50

Europe = owned.

The numbers for actual GDP growth rate differ in almost every site, but one thing is for sure. Europe is not growing.

Does it matter if Europe grows?
It is perfectly sustainable as is...they aren't trying to globally dominate.
besides having a gdp of 11trillion still gives you a lot of swing.

They aren't trying to globally dominate? That's news to me!
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
Well if Europe is not growing then in 20-50 years Europe will be equal to the M.E in terms of economy.

I doubt that the Middle East is going to be overtaking Europe any time soon.

I'm kind of curiosu - how much of the Middle East's economy is NOT oil based?
 
Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
Originally posted by: Aimster
Well if Europe is not growing then in 20-50 years Europe will be equal to the M.E in terms of economy.

I doubt that the Middle East is going to be overtaking Europe any time soon.

I'm kind of curiosu - how much of the Middle East's economy is NOT oil based?

Probably by 2020 there will be shortage in terms of oil reserves. Eventually oil will run out for these Middle East nations, at least some of them.
 
Originally posted by: RabidMongoose
Originally posted by: Aimster
Well if Europe is not growing then in 20-50 years Europe will be equal to the M.E in terms of economy.

I doubt that the Middle East is going to be overtaking Europe any time soon.

I'm kind of curiosu - how much of the Middle East's economy is NOT oil based?

Algeria: $17.8B oil revenue / 66 Billion GDP = 27%
Indonesia: $1.4B oil revenue / 208.2 Billion GDP = .067%
Iran: $23.9B oil revenue / 136.8 Billion GDP = 17.4%
Iraq: $9.6B oil revenue / No Data
Kuwait: $18.7B oil revenue / 35.3 Billion GDP = 52%
Libya: $13.4B oil revenue / 19.1 Billion GDP = 70%
Nigeria: $20.9B oil revenue / 50.2 Billion GDP = 41.6%
Qatar: $9.4B oil revenue / 17.466 Billion GDP = 53.8%
Saudi Arabia: $80.8B oil revenue / 188.479 Billion GDP = 42.8%
UAE: $23.7B oil revenue / 70.960 Billion GDP = 33.3%
Venezuela: $20.6B oil revenue / 84.793 Billion GDP = 24.3%

All of these countries have enough oil to last them for decades. They keep finding more oil there every year and upgrading their reserves. If there was a shortage of oil in these countries the entire global system would collapse. The only country that suffers from a threat to their reserves is Syria. They only have 10 years left, but Syria is not a major oil player.

Slowly these nations invest more money into other sectors of their economy. Each year billions are being invested for education and social programs to help boost the economy from their reliance on oil. Compare these nations to what they were 20 years ago. Each year they continue to grow and each year their reliance on oil is being cut short.

While their investments pay off, Europe continues to stay steady.

For example: Bahrain is investing $100billion into their economy in the next 5 years. $50 billion of that is for non-oil services and $50 billion is related to oil (search for more resources, upgade current facilities, etc).

Most of these nations are seeing growth rates while Europe is seeing no growth.

In 2004 the predict oil revenue from those countries was: $286.4
In 2005 the predict oil revenue for those countries is: $262.5

Yet they all have a growth rate forcast for 2005.

A perfect example is UAE. They only rely on 33% of their GDP for oil revenues. They once used to rely on much more.
 
Non Opec Countries:

Egypt: 1.6B oil revenue / 82.427B GDP = 1.8%
Oman: $7.5B oil revenue / 20.309B GDP = 37%
Syria: $2.5B oil revenue / 21.517B GDP = 11.6%
Russia: $60.7B oil revenue / 433.491B GDP = 14%
Norway: $32.3B oil revenue / 221.579B GDP = 14.5%
 
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) earned an estimated $23.7 billion in net oil export revenues in 2003, up 30% from 2002 revenues. For 2004 and 2005, the UAE is projected to earn $26 billion each year. As with other OPEC countries, relatively strong oil prices and revenues in recent years have helped to significantly improve the UAE's economic, trade, and budgetary situations. The UAE economy is relatively diversified, having moved increasingly towards services (tourism, banking, re-exports, information technology, etc.). Privatization has moved ahead relatively quickly, and the country has set up the Sharjah Airport International Free Zone to encourage foreign trade and investment. These moves have helped to moderate the effects of fluctuating oil prices (and revenues). The UAE's current account ran a $12.5 billion surplus in 2003; for 2004, an $8.7 billion surplus is expected.

For 2004, the UAE is expected to export around 2.2 million bbl/d of oil, down 4% compared to 2003 export levels. Real growth in the UAE's gross domestic product (GDP) is projected at 4.0% for 2004 and 4.6% for 2005, similar to the estimated 4.5% real growth experienced during 2003.

For each nation it is different in the method they use to get the oil out. It depends on how far down the oil is in the ground. Saudi Arabia's oil is very easy to retrieve and therefore they have huge oil revenues (33% of Opecs oil). Other nations have the oil, but they are not able to pump it out as fast as Saudi Arabia because their oil is harder to retrieve. Oil is different for each nation as well. Lots of countries have sulfer and other stuff mixed in their oil that will lower the price on the market.

Countries who do not have the luxury that Saudi Arabia has, have turned their attention to other sectors for revenue.
 
Originally posted by: Infohawk
No sh|t sherlock. The time of American hegemony is coming to a end. (When most countries are on an equal footing, population becomes a key factor. The most powerful countries will be the ones with the largest populations). The sad thing is the US should be building an international infrastructure that will mitigate the future power of such behemoths. The aburd thing is that the current administration is creating a framework where might makes right--- and we won't have the monopoly on might for much longer.

did you read the article?!

The United States will remain "the single most important country across all dimensions of power,"

"Although the challenges ahead will be daunting, the United States will retain enormous advantages, playing a pivotal role across the broad range of issues ? economic, technological, political and military ? that no other state will match by 2020," said the report, "Mapping the Global Future."
 
Originally posted by: Aimster
Algeria: $17.8B oil revenue / 66 Billion GDP = 27%
Indonesia: $1.4B oil revenue / 208.2 Billion GDP = .067%
Iran: $23.9B oil revenue / 136.8 Billion GDP = 17.4%
Iraq: $9.6B oil revenue / No Data
Kuwait: $18.7B oil revenue / 35.3 Billion GDP = 52%
Libya: $13.4B oil revenue / 19.1 Billion GDP = 70%
Nigeria: $20.9B oil revenue / 50.2 Billion GDP = 41.6%
Qatar: $9.4B oil revenue / 17.466 Billion GDP = 53.8%
Saudi Arabia: $80.8B oil revenue / 188.479 Billion GDP = 42.8%
UAE: $23.7B oil revenue / 70.960 Billion GDP = 33.3%
Venezuela: $20.6B oil revenue / 84.793 Billion GDP = 24.3%

All of these countries have enough oil to last them for decades. They keep finding more oil there every year and upgrading their reserves. If there was a shortage of oil in these countries the entire global system would collapse. The only country that suffers from a threat to their reserves is Syria. They only have 10 years left, but Syria is not a major oil player.

Can you provide your source?

It seems that they are all very heavily involved with oil. There is probably very little development outside of the oil industry.

]Slowly these nations invest more money into other sectors of their economy. Each year billions are being invested for education and social programs to help boost the economy from their reliance on oil. Compare these nations to what they were 20 years ago. Each year they continue to grow and each year their reliance on oil is being cut short.

While their investments pay off, Europe continues to stay steady.

Most of these nations are seeing growth rates while Europe is seeing no growth.

It's not hard to grow when you're at the bottom of the barrel. Europe is near the top and growth would be harder to achieve.

The chances of the Middle East surpassing Europe as a whole in economy, technology, and so on is likely slim to none in 20-50 years.
 
Aimster those oil revenues are highly misleading...i can't believe you can even begin to look at their economies like that.

First of all the oil is the backbone of the economy. Take oil away and there is no investment in the country. Nobody investing equipment and infrastructure to extract the oil, nobody will have money to go to stores to buy goods and services.

GDP is the productivity of the whole nation. Without the only true industry in the middle east, no money will be redistributed to other areas of the economy.

To get a glimpse of what the ME would be like without oil, i'd say halfway between africa and asia. The geography is similar to africa with the same challenges inherent in that regoin...but at the same time it has a large population with the same problems that such countries like pakistan is experiencing. They cannot attract labour intensive manufacturing because their standard of living is artificially higher due to resources.

Now...dont get me wrong. Oil in the ME will continue to flow for years. Especially with new tar sands technology that such countries like canada and china are working on. They have along while to get other economies going. I find it wierd that the ME's Debts are insanely high. They seem to be living beyond their means even with the huge revenues from oil.
 
Back
Top