2018 Midterm Election Results

[Hayabusa Rider]

but the GOP also solidified its coalition that allowed it to expand in the Senate,

Before midterms the Reps were invincible in the Senate and the Dems can only sit around and watch. Now until 2020? The Reps are invincible in the Senate and the Dems can only sit around and watch.

There is no functional difference. What translates into political pain is the Dems in the House who can stop the Senate in legislation. They now have the power to horse trade.

 

[vi edit]

Numbers are coming in that Dems were +330'ish for state seats on Tuesday. Ouch.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Karen Handel conceded to the Dem challenger McBath in GA-6 (the Tom Price seat that both parties spent fortunes for in 2017).

California takes eons to count mail in votes so going to be a while before we have definitive calls on the so cal house races there.

FL senate gap continues to tighten Scott's lead down to 20K. Counting continues.

AZ senate is a worse mess. They have a shitload of stuff to count yet.

I am looking forward to tears on Friday from the Putin's favorite, Rohrabacher when the mail-in votes are counted. I understand that the results won't be certified until as late as December, but that would be a formality. The downside is that we no longer have a champion to hold off the pedo Martians.

 

[K1052]

Before midterms the Reps were invincible in the Senate and the Dems can only sit around and watch. Now until 2020? The Reps are invincible in the Senate and the Dems can only sit around and watch.

There is no functional difference. What translates into political pain is the Dems in the House who can stop the Senate in legislation. They now have the power to horse trade.

The chief immediate benefit are that it will be easier to confirm cabinet posts and judges which has been happening anyway. So basically meh. The real hope is that padding their majority will prevent a Dam takeover when the map is unfavorable like in 2020. There are at least 5 seats at risk even before we get to any primary shenanigans.

 

[K1052]

I am looking forward to tears on Friday from the Putin's favorite, Rohrabacher when the mail-in votes are counted. I understand that the results won't be certified until as late as December, but that would be a formality. The downside is that we no longer have a champion to hold off the pedo Martians.

Poor Comrade Dana. Maybe he can get a job lobbying for the Russian nerve gas industry or something.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

The real hope is that padding their majority will prevent a Dem takeover when the map is unfavorable like in 2020

Having more Reps does matter in future elections as and makes defections less problematic, true. I was speaking in the context of this term. Trump could install Satan now, but likely could have anyway.

 

[vi edit]

The long term problem for Democrats is the map. Demographics and deaths of boomers are one thing working for them. The map isn't. Democrats aren't flocking to states like North Dakota, Nebraska, Indiana, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Wyoming, ect. As those states bleed youth and college educated voters to coastal states you just continue to stack votes into places with capped senate representation. 700,000 people in North Dakota get the same senate representation as 40 million people in California.

Senate wise and electoral college wise those are strongholds that the dems don't have an answer to short of a mass takeover by repopulating them or a demographic coup in the way of somehow getting Texas full on blue.

 

[K1052]

Having more Reps does matter in future elections as and makes defections less problematic, true. I was speaking in the context of this term. Trump could install Satan now, but likely could have anyway.

Yes, just minus the handwringing from people like Flake. People like Blackburn and Scott would literally confirm actual Satan for a lifetime judiciary appointment no questions asked.

 

[fskimospy]

Maybe I am misunderstanding the NY Times article, as its conclusion quantifies this wave as smaller than the ones in 2006 and 2010.

There is nothing to celebrate about these electjon results, as they indicate the further Balkanization of our country. The Dems made gains amongst the Whole Foods pumpkin spice latte coalition, but the GOP also solidified its coalition that allowed it to expand in the Senate, and you can’t blame that on gerrymandering.

What is clear is that Trump continues to exasperate the divide between the god and guns white parts of the country and urban centers, and I can’t say I would want to live in any country exclusively run by either.

After California finishes counting it will likely be the second largest popular vote margin.

And there is a ton to celebrate. Things are probably going to get worse before they get better but had the Republicans kept the house you not o my would have seen further tax cuts for billionaires financed by cuts in medical care for poor people, whatever constraints remained on Trump to follow the law would have been gone.

We dodged a huge bullet.

 

[Bitek]

Maybe I am misunderstanding the NY Times article, as its conclusion quantifies this wave as smaller than the ones in 2006 and 2010.



There is nothing to celebrate about these electjon results, as they indicate the further Balkanization of our country. The Dems made gains amongst the Whole Foods pumpkin spice latte coalition, but the GOP also solidified its coalition that allowed it to expand in the Senate, and you can’t blame that on gerrymandering.

What is clear is that Trump continues to exasperate the divide between the god and guns white parts of the country and urban centers, and I can’t say I would want to live in any country exclusively run by either.

I don't see how you can rationalize this but anything for a big win for the Democrats.

Obamacare won big in red states, marijuana legalization won, not to mention all the state house pickups that the Democrats were able to achieve.

Yeah there was some marq races that they didn't pull off, but they were in strongly red areas and were more quixotic campaigns if anything.

The only big loss really suffered was Florida and Ohio gov races. That's going to hurt come redistricting time, but picking up 360 statehouse seats and several governorships will help.

 

[Starbuck1975]

I don't see how you can rationalize this but anything for a big win for the Democrats.

Obamacare won big in red states, marijuana legalization won, not to mention all the state house pickups that the Democrats were able to achieve.

Yeah there was some marq races that they didn't pull off, but they were in strongly red areas and were more quixotic campaigns if anything.

The only big loss really suffered was Florida and Ohio gov races. That's going to hurt come redistricting time, but picking up 360 statehouse seats and several governorships will help.

There are a few dueling narratives. I need to find the article again, but I found one last night about ballot initiatives as a contradiction to tribalism. A few liberal ballot initiatives passed in areas that enthusiastically support Trump, and voters similarly took a more conservative stance on ballot initiatives in deep blue areas.

What this tells me is that while the Twitter fringe may drive the news cycles, with a President dousing the flames with gasoline, what most voters crave is fiscally responsible democratic socialism (health care) and sensible liberal social policies (marijuana, etc). Investments in infrastructure and a reasonable approach to immigration would be nice as well. Oh, and more progressive tax structures.

 

[fskimospy]

There are a few dueling narratives. I need to find the article again, but I found one last night about ballot initiatives as a contradiction to tribalism. A few liberal ballot initiatives passed in areas that enthusiastically support Trump, and voters similarly took a more conservative stance on ballot initiatives in deep blue areas.

What this tells me is that while the Twitter fringe may drive the news cycles, with a President dousing the flames with gasoline, what most voters crave is fiscally responsible democratic socialism (health care) and sensible liberal social policies (marijuana, etc). Investments in infrastructure and a reasonable approach to immigration would be nice as well. Oh, and more progressive tax structures.

To me what it says is that most people don't vote for candidates based on their policy views. Honestly if they did, Democrats would always win as their policy platform is way, way more popular than the Republican one.

When confronted with ballot initiatives though people are directly required to vote based on their policy preference, which is why liberal ballot initiatives usually pass because the US electorate is fundamentally liberal.

 

[vi edit]

There are a few dueling narratives. I need to find the article again, but I found one last night about ballot initiatives as a contradiction to tribalism. A few liberal ballot initiatives passed in areas that enthusiastically support Trump, and voters similarly took a more conservative stance on ballot initiatives in deep blue areas.

What this tells me is that while the Twitter fringe may drive the news cycles, with a President dousing the flames with gasoline, what most voters crave is fiscally responsible democratic socialism (health care) and sensible liberal social policies (marijuana, etc). Investments in infrastructure and a reasonable approach to immigration would be nice as well. Oh, and more progressive tax structures.

The problem comes in from single issue voters. Guns and babies. All logic is thrown out the door when those electrified rails are touched.

 

[K1052]

The problem comes in from single issue voters. Guns and babies. All logic is thrown out the door when those electrified rails are touched.

Or a caravan of middle eastern terrorists who have smallpox and want to take our jobs.

A lot of this lunacy basically evaporates when people are forced to make individual decisions on nuanced policy, which almost overwhelmingly favors a more progressive bent regardless of party affiliation.

 

[Blackjack200]

I don't see how you can rationalize this but anything for a big win for the Democrats.

Obamacare won big in red states, marijuana legalization won, not to mention all the state house pickups that the Democrats were able to achieve.

Yeah there was some marq races that they didn't pull off, but they were in strongly red areas and were more quixotic campaigns if anything.

The only big loss really suffered was Florida and Ohio gov races. That's going to hurt come redistricting time, but picking up 360 statehouse seats and several governorships will help.

I don't know, you had what will probably be a 7 to 8 point Democratic Party edge in national voting, and the result of that was like 3 Senate seats swinging red and a relatively narrow house majority.

Maybe the voter suppression tactics we've seen already will be expanded, gerrymandering and population shifts will exacerbate the situation, and soon enough a 10, 11, or 12 point margin won't be enough. If you're looking at how many people pulled the lever for democrats, you can find comfort in Tuesday's results. But looking how those votes have translated to electoral results is very alarming to me.

 

[trenchfoot]

He changed his mind.

Who'da thunk that Kanye would ever do such a thing?

 

[Jaskalas]

Separating children from their parents at the boarder is pretty radical.

Pretty standard after a court mandates separation.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Pretty standard after a court mandates separation.

I would like to see the explicit court order that requires that no option can exist which then forces this manner of separation. Ball is in your court for that one, and "if you do it this way then you must separate parents from children in detention centers" unless once again you can demonstrate the explicit ruling that there are no other options permitted.

I think you are going to need quite a bit of luck for that one, but I bet you could find court orders requiring the reuniting of families. How does that last jive with your claim?

 

[Jhhnn]

Pretty standard after a court mandates separation.

That's dishonest. Refutation is trivial-

https://www.boston.com/news/politic...ck-gop-now-blames-court-for-family-separation

 

[vi edit]

Another gut punch to GOP.
Remember last summer that Georgia 6th Special Election to fill Tom Price's old seat that was (one of?)the most expensive congressional campaigns out there?
Well Handel has conceded.

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/karen-handel-concedes-6th-district-race-to-lucy-mcbath/868942314

 

[spacejamz]

If present demographic trends hold, 70% of the population will only have 30% of the Senate by 2040, regardless of party affiliation.

Damn those pesky forefathers....what where they thinking when they wanted to give each state equal representation regardless of population....

 

[thilanliyan]

700,000 people in North Dakota get the same senate representation as 40 million people in California.

That honestly makes no sense...really needs to change.

 

[Jhhnn]

Damn those pesky forefathers....what where they thinking when they wanted to give each state equal representation regardless of population....

The disparities in State populations weren't nearly as enormous as today-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1790_United_States_Census

It's not like they could have predicted this, particularly not the utter disrespect of small state GOP politicians for the rest of America. They'll break the system to serve the purposes of avarice & greed. They already have in certain respects.

 

[vi edit]

That honestly makes no sense...really needs to change.

250 years ago the Founders probably didn't have any idea that we'd be a country of 330 million people, as politically diverse as we are and as big and spread out as we are. There's not much that can be done right now. There's a slow bleed of California residents to states like Arizona, NV and Texas seeking out cheaper housing. Those population shifts have a slow swing in state voting record.

But it's not like a place like Wyoming or North Dakota or West Virginia offer a ton in the way of liberal minded draws. Tech, education, metropolitan areas...nope. Nothing really to draw different minded citizens to those places. So you just end up stacking and stacking geographically small areas with a ton of voters to no additional effect outside of *REALLY* locking in one massive electoral college vote.

 

[spacejamz]

That honestly makes no sense...really needs to change.

yeah...change the constitution when it doesn't favor my party...