2018 mid-term forecast

[Texashiker]

In the eight years obama was president, democrats lost over 1,000 state seats, both houses and the presidency.

Before Trump was elected, which I predicted, main stream media waged an all out war on him. This war continues in earnest.

Between January - November 2018 will be critical for the GOP. If they play their cards right, democrats will be handed another crushing defeat. However, main stream media will be hastily at work playing on the fears of the public.

Regardless of what mainstream media does, money talks.

If:

The economy continues to climb,

Unemployment reaches historical lows,

FBI is brought to heel for their crimes,

ISIS is crushed,

Dreamers given citizenship.... and a few other things.

The Democrat party will be on their way to being extinct. They have nobody who can touch Trump. The DNC leaders are old and out of touch. Chances are the democrat party will splinter before November 2018. Nancy and her gang are no longer progressive enough for the younger generation.

Going to leave this here and come back in November 2018 and see how many things were true.

 

[theeedude]

In the eight years obama was president, democrats lost over 1,000 state seats, both houses and the presidency.

Before Trump was elected, which I predicted, main stream media waged an all out war on him. This war continues in earnest.

Between January - November 2018 will be critical for the GOP. If they play their cards right, democrats will be handed another crushing defeat. However, main stream media will be hastily at work playing on the fears of the public.

Regardless of what mainstream media does, money talks.

If:

The economy continues to climb,

Unemployment reaches historical lows,

FBI is brought to heel for their crimes,

ISIS is crushed,

Dreamers given citizenship.... and a few other things.

The Democrat party will be on their way to being extinct. They have nobody who can touch Trump. The DNC leaders are old and out of touch. Chances are the democrat party will splinter before November 2018. Nancy and her gang are no longer progressive enough for the younger generation.

Going to leave this here and come back in November 2018 and see how many things were true.

Keep smoking what you are smoking, and you will be fine.

 

[dullard]

Regardless of what mainstream media does, money talks.
If:
The economy continues to climb,
Unemployment reaches historical lows,
FBI is brought to heel for their crimes,
ISIS is crushed,
Dreamers given citizenship.... and a few other things.
The Democrat party will be on their way to being extinct.

We'll see. We've been under Democrat laws for the last 9 years. The results have been pretty good (not great, but not bad either, the stock market is at record highs under the laws Obama signed). What will happen once Republicans start passing laws to muck with the economy, the military, etc? The opposite?

 

[imported_tajmahal]

I don't disagree. I still think Republicans will retain control of the House and pick up 4 or 5 seats in the Senate in federal 2018 elections and do almost as well in most States. We'll see.

 

[Bitek]

Yeah man. Totally. Look at that soaring approval rate man.

Who could ever touch that, other than every other president we've had of course.

Fly eagle fly!

 

[woolfe9998]

For a counter-point from someone who has, you know, brains, and knows what he's talking about:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/

 

[Sheik Yerbouti]

For a counter-point from someone who has, you know, brains, and knows what he's talking about:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/

please excuse toothless, he's having trouble thinking clearly due to the lack of oxygen up in drumpfs colon.

 

[umbrella39]

LMFAO.... Roy Moore losing is what got you to retire your socks? FFS... Run back to your safe space RipRorin....

 

[imported_tajmahal]

For a counter-point from someone who has, you know, brains, and knows what he's talking about:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/

If the very strange and existentially weird conditions of the special Alabama Senate election were to happen in every State and with every candidate again Silver would be right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Billb2]

Democrats: 100,000,000
Republicans: 0

 

[Texashiker]

Signing out guys, peace.

Always remember I love each and every one of you.

 

[woolfe9998]

If the very strange and existentially weird conditions of the special Alabama Senate election were to happen in every State and with every candidate again Silver would be right, but I wouldn't bet on it.

You probably didn't read the link. The problem isn't just Alabama. It's that when measuring all 7 special elections so far this year, the dems have outperformed expectations based on the partisan lean of the district or state they ran in, by an average of 16 points. In Alabama, Jones outperformed it by 30 points. That's because, as you say, Alabama is something of an outlier. Nonetheless, if dems outperform the baseline by 16 points on average next year, there won't be many seats in Congress left for the GOP. It probably won't be as bad as that for the GOP, but it's not looking pretty.

Also, dems are leading in generic Congressional polling by 11 points. Historically, that is consistent with a 35 seat pickup in the House.

 

[umbrella39]

Bye... Please come back after your paycheck is 20 percent smaller due to you willingly offering it up to your rich, white, puppet masters. How will you blame Obama then...

 

[imported_tajmahal]

You probably didn't read the link. The problem isn't just Alabama. It's that when measuring all 7 special elections so far this year, the dems have outperformed expectations based on the partisan lean of the district or state they ran in, by an average of 16 points. In Alabama, Jones outperformed it by 30 points. That's because, as you say, Alabama is something of an outlier. Nonetheless, if dems outperform the baseline by 16 points on average next year, there won't be many seats in Congress left for the GOP. It probably won't be as bad as that for the GOP, but it's not looking pretty.

Also, dems are leading in generic Congressional polling by 11 points. Historically, that is consistent with a 35 seat pickup in the House.

We'll see how it ends up. I'm perfectly happy to wait and see what happens in Nov. of 2018.

 

[Greenman]

I think the republicans are going to get their asses handed to them in 18. That's assuming that Hillary goes away, she could skew the results toward the GOP if she continues to "work for a better America".

 

[JujuFish]

However, main stream media will be hastily at work playing on the fears of the public..

This is, quite literally, the tactic Trump and the right wing uses. It makes sense, too, since studies show that feeling unsafe makes one more conservative.

 

[JSt0rm]

Bye... Please come back after your paycheck is 20 percent smaller due to you willingly offering it up to your rich, white, puppet masters. How will you blame Obama then...

you think he is working?

 

[feralkid]

I've been in a coma for the last 72 hours; what happened in Alabama?

Fixed.

 

[trenchfoot]

So far, a failed attempt at ramming through a big tax cut for the rich under the guise of health care repeal/replace, an imminent tax cut bill for the wealthy/corps and very big "FVCK YOU" to the middle class and the poor with a possible 13 million folks with no more health care, a warning from the Repubs that they are soon to go after medicare, medicaid, social security, veteran's benefits and have just handed the once free and open internet over to the big internet providers for fun and profits profits profits.

And that's just for starters.

That's going to affect millions of Trump's working class supporters in a very big and hurtful way along with everybody else that tried to stop this shit from ever happening.

Maybe many of Trump's supporters are now going to feel the hurt badly enough to have them WAKE THE FVCK UP and start putting their own interests before party like most other folks with clear heads and a lick of common sense.

If that ever happens before the coming elections, then wow, the Repubs are going to get their asses kicked off the hill en mass. If not, as I'm supposing, well, it's 2000-2008 all over again.

 

[bshole]

Unfortunately the Republican tax plan will have a very strong short term benefit. A year from now I would expect the stock market to be significantly higher as corporate profits go through the roof. A booming economy is usually very helpful to incumbents. I would love to predict the decimation of the Republicans in the next midterms but I honestly don't have any idea.

 

[Commodus]

In the eight years obama was president, democrats lost over 1,000 state seats, both houses and the presidency.

Before Trump was elected, which I predicted, main stream media waged an all out war on him. This war continues in earnest.

Between January - November 2018 will be critical for the GOP. If they play their cards right, democrats will be handed another crushing defeat. However, main stream media will be hastily at work playing on the fears of the public.

Regardless of what mainstream media does, money talks.

If:

The economy continues to climb,

Unemployment reaches historical lows,

FBI is brought to heel for their crimes,

ISIS is crushed,

Dreamers given citizenship.... and a few other things.

The Democrat party will be on their way to being extinct. They have nobody who can touch Trump. The DNC leaders are old and out of touch. Chances are the democrat party will splinter before November 2018. Nancy and her gang are no longer progressive enough for the younger generation.

Going to leave this here and come back in November 2018 and see how many things were true.

Not surprising to see you living in an alternate reality where special elections and polling never happen, and where you jerk off to the thought of a Republican dictatorship. Remind me, are you supposed to be American? Because yearning for perpetual one-party rule definitely isn't representative of American values.

 

[SlowSpyder]

I'm pretty confident the Republicans will do alright in the upcoming election year. Not the doom and gloom that the left is trying to sell that only their base is buying. Not that different than 2016.

 

[Jhhnn]

Unfortunately the Republican tax plan will have a very strong short term benefit. A year from now I would expect the stock market to be significantly higher as corporate profits go through the roof. A booming economy is usually very helpful to incumbents. I would love to predict the decimation of the Republicans in the next midterms but I honestly don't have any idea.

Meh. The stock market & real estate prices were booming in 2016. They were also booming in 2006 when Dems took back the HOR & the Senate.

The welfare of the American people in general is increasingly divorced from the fortunes of the movers & shakers of the financial realm. There is no trickle down & everybody knows it other than GOP politicos.

 

[bshole]

I'm pretty confident the Republicans will do alright in the upcoming election year. Not the doom and gloom that the left is trying to sell that only their base is buying. Not that different than 2016.

You may be correct, if so that is more a reflection of the Republican voters than anything else. There is a time coming when a majority of Republicans voters are going to realize that their leaders have been giving them the shaft. When that does happen, there is a chance we could change the world for the better.

 

[dullard]

I'm pretty confident the Republicans will do alright in the upcoming election year. Not the doom and gloom that the left is trying to sell that only their base is buying. Not that different than 2016.

Do you have reasons for this logic? In off years, the party out of power almost always does better. So, if history is a guide, Democrats will do well in 2018.

But, we don't need distant history as a guide, we can go off of elections the last few months. In all of the 7 national special elections this year. Democrats have done between 3% and 30% better than they did in the last presidential elections (More lost a seat in an area that Trump won by 28%!) But it isn't just Moore, all 7 special elections had Democrats up more than expected. The average was a 16% boost, not a small number, but a full 16% more than expected from past elections. There wasn't a single election this year where Republicans outperformed.

What will turn that trend back to Republicans?