2017 NBA Playoffs

[Red Storm]

What a waste these Celtics are in the Eastern Conference finals. While I don't think the Wizards would beat Cleveland, I know they would at least make it more competitive.

 

[lupi]

Celtics won't win a game, IT guy out for the season.

Looking doubtful the Spurs manage to pick up more than one at this point.

 

[smackababy]

Celtics won't win a game, IT guy out for the season.

Looking doubtful the Spurs manage to pick up more than one at this point.

Well, Warriors have been known to blow a 3-1 lead, so maybe 3-0 isn't impossible?

 

[Ackmed]

Well, Warriors have been known to blow a 3-1 lead, so maybe 3-0 isn't impossible?

Warriors also have been known to come back from a 1-3 deficit. I think the Warriors got extremely lucky, having both Leonard and Parker go out. I think the Spurs would have beaten them, or gotten very close. As it is now, no challenge. I don't want to see another series between the Cavs and Warriors. And I don't want Durant to win now that he jumped ship. But the Warriors will probably win, but LeBron is playing other woldly right now so who knows.

These playoffs suck ass. Very few good games. Green calling Olynyk a dirty player was pretty funny though. Green is as dirty as they come.

 

[Majes]

Warriors also have been known to come back from a 1-3 deficit. I think the Warriors got extremely lucky, having both Leonard and Parker go out. I think the Spurs would have beaten them, or gotten very close. As it is now, no challenge. I don't want to see another series between the Cavs and Warriors. And I don't want Durant to win now that he jumped ship. But the Warriors will probably win, but LeBron is playing other woldly right now so who knows.

These playoffs suck ass. Very few good games. Green calling Olynyk a dirty player was pretty funny though. Green is as dirty as they come.

The Spurs would have won a game or two vs the Warriors, but I couldn't see them winning the series even if perfectly healthy. It's not that the Spurs aren't a great team. They are, and they match up well with the Warriors down the line favorably until you get to point guard and then Curry is just such a huge upgrade over Parker or Mills at this point that it would have tilted a healthy series.

On the other hand though a Celtics team that had absolutely no favorable matchups somehow won a game vs the Cavs last night... So a health Spurs team definitely could have stolen the series if they got lucky.

 

[Mr.IncrediblyBored]

Kyrie put on a clinic last night. Dude is coooold blooded.

 

[Majes]

Kyrie put on a clinic last night. Dude is coooold blooded.

I think his matchup with Curry next round will determine the series. If he can outplay him like last year the Cavs have a good chance. If Curry can match or outplay him the Warriors will most likely win.

 

[mxnerd]

Lebron looks completely lost before Kyrie took over and reversed the game.

 

[Ackmed]

The Spurs would have won a game or two vs the Warriors, but I couldn't see them winning the series even if perfectly healthy. It's not that the Spurs aren't a great team. They are, and they match up well with the Warriors down the line favorably until you get to point guard and then Curry is just such a huge upgrade over Parker or Mills at this point that it would have tilted a healthy series.

On the other hand though a Celtics team that had absolutely no favorable matchups somehow won a game vs the Cavs last night... So a health Spurs team definitely could have stolen the series if they got lucky.

You may be right. I think the Spurs would have beaten the Cavs too, I think they had the best match up for them. Guess we'll never know. Playoffs ruined by injuries to big time players. Parker isnt the Parker of 8 years ago, still a very good player, a leader, and floor general. Rondo being out for the Bulls, up 2-0 over the Celtics, they would have wont that series I think. But another injury fucked a series.

As it is, I dont see the Cavs beating the Warriors 4 games, but we'll see. I detest the Warriors and hope they lose.

 

[manly]

This isn't saying much at all, but Ty Lue can out-coach Mike Brown. Lue should pin ESPN BPI and 538's projections onto their bulletin boards:
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/131082/bpi-playoff-chances-for-nba-teams
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

Vegas has the Dubs as 5:2 favorites which seems about right.

IIRC 538 had the Celtics as slight favorites to beat the Cavs in the ECF before game 1 started (53% to win the series lol).

Now I wouldn't be wholly surprised if the Warriors win in 5, but I'm expecting a competitive series (i.e. 6 games or maybe even 7).

 

[AznAnarchy99]

This isn't saying much at all, but Ty Lue can out-coach Mike Brown. Lue should pin ESPN BPI and 538's projections onto their bulletin boards:
http://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/131082/bpi-playoff-chances-for-nba-teams
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nba-predictions/

Vegas has the Dubs as 5:2 favorites which seems about right.

IIRC 538 had the Celtics as slight favorites to beat the Cavs in the ECF before game 1 started (53% to win the series lol).

Now I wouldn't be wholly surprised if the Warriors win in 5, but I'm expecting a competitive series (i.e. 6 games or maybe even 7).

Out coach Mike Brown how? By playing Lebron 48 minutes? lol.

 

[slayer202]

fivethirtyeight just embarrassing themselves saying the warriors have a 90% chance of winning the series

 

[Majes]

fivethirtyeight just embarrassing themselves saying the warriors have a 90% chance of winning the series

Yeah it's nowhere near that high right now. At the start of the playoffs and after the Pacers series when the Cavs looked like an awful defensive team then sure... But after the first round the Cavs have looked amazing and they do have some match-up advantages vs Golden State unlike most teams.

Don't get me wrong, the Warriors will win if their 4 All Stars play average or above average in the series. But they haven't really done that in the playoffs so far. Klay Thompson has been below average, and Cleveland is the one team that can take advantage of that.

I afraid that Cleveland turns the series into a wrestling match and ends up winning somehow. But I think most people know that if Curry or Thompson get hot in 3-4 games then Golden State will win. Durant steadies them, but Cleveland is good enough to win with below average games from Curry and Thompson.

 

[slayer202]

Lebron has had issues in the past but at this point I think the cavs are the stronger team mentally. Hopefully losing last year will motivate the warriors. It should be a great series either way

 

[MetalMat]

Lebron has had issues in the past but at this point I think the cavs are the stronger team mentally. Hopefully losing last year will motivate the warriors. It should be a great series either way

Yeah it's going to be awesome, would like to see Cleveland bring home another championship but I could go either way. I know some people are griping about the same teams being in it again but whatever, they blasted away the competition in the playoffs and are clearly heads and shoulders above the rest on the league.

 

[Drako]

fivethirtyeight just embarrassing themselves saying the warriors have a 90% chance of winning the series

Meh, ESPN has the Warriors at 93.8%

 

[slayer202]

really? that's insane...

according to ESPN, vegas has it
Cavaliers +215
Warriors -255

which is closer to 5/2 than 9/1, but still feels like a lot. I'd say it's an even matchup but if you are gonna give the warriors the advantage it can't be much more than a 60% chance imo. the only reasoning I can think of is that the east was so weak but unless vegas knows something about the cavs that we don't, I am surprised

 

[lupi]

If Cavs manage to take game 1, it will be a real interesting series.

 

[manly]

Out coach Mike Brown how? By playing Lebron 48 minutes? lol.

Mike Brown had the 2 best regular season Cavs teams ever, and managed an ECF loss and an ECSF loss with them. Right now it looks like the Dubs coach themselves, but in a close contest, Brown is a significant liability IMO. His track record just sucks as a head coach.

Lebron has had issues in the past but at this point I think the cavs are the stronger team mentally. Hopefully losing last year will motivate the warriors. It should be a great series either way

What issues are you talking about? LeBron is the playoffs career scoring leader and I think 2nd to MJ in playoff scoring average. OK OK, you have a point about 2011. But his entire body of work is very strong IMO.

How are the Cavs mentally stronger? They blew a huge lead to the Celtics at home in game 3. The only reason you could make that statement is because both KD and Steph Curry are considered in some circles as less than reliable.

really? that's insane...

according to ESPN, vegas has it
Cavaliers +215
Warriors -255

which is closer to 5/2 than 9/1, but still feels like a lot. I'd say it's an even matchup but if you are gonna give the warriors the advantage it can't be much more than a 60% chance imo. the only reasoning I can think of is that the east was so weak but unless vegas knows something about the cavs that we don't, I am surprised

538/ESPN BPI rely on regular season results because the playoffs don't give you enough data points. 538 especially considers there to be a talent gap between the Dubs and the Cavs (I don't know how BPI works). I think the series is highly anticipated because both teams are on fire and this is the rubber match. But 70/30 is pretty reasonable odds to my untrained eyes. Dubs have 2 of the game's best 5 players, and 4 of the best 20-ish.

If Cavs manage to take game 1, it will be a real interesting series.

They just need to take game 1 or game 2, doesn't really matter which.

I'm rooting for the Cavs, but the Warriors have home court advantage and are more stacked at the top. The series could go either way, but I can see why the Warriors are solidly favored at sportsbooks. Obviously none of us here thinks the Dubs should be considered 9 to 1 favorites.

 

[slayer202]

I mean lebron has a reputation for not being the most clutch player, whether that's accurate or not, and he's 3 for 7 in the finals (3 for 6, the last 6 consecutive years. 7th in a row this year, that's nuts). On the other hand, I think he's matured a lot now that he doesn't have anything to prove. Also, kyrie is a beast, nothing will faze him. And the warriors have a reputation for being soft.

 

[manly]

That's a false reputation. The sample size for "clutch shooting" is too limited for just the playoffs*. You have to include regular season as well, and LB is pretty good when he's barreling to the hoop. I think his crunch time jump shooting is not good though. Kobe Bryant has this god reputation for clutch shooting, but his numbers actually suck. His team would've won more one possession games if he didn't decide to ALWAYS take the last shot.

http://www.libertyballers.com/2012/...t-dwyane-wade-clutch-nba-playoffs-4th-quarter

LeBron understands high-leverage 3s are not the strongest part of his game, but his ability and willingness to pass to an open shooter improves his team's chances of winning a one possession game.

* As of 2 years ago, the playoffs-only last possession numbers looked especially favorable for LeBron:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/lebron-may-be-the-most-clutch-playoff-shooter-of-his-generation/

As for LeBron's Finals record, his team has been the favorite just twice. In 2012, OKC was favored in Vegas while power rankings had the series as a toss-up. Even including the infamous 2011 choke, his teams have performed as well as expected overall.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/lebrons-finals-record-isnt-really-a-disappointment/

I'm not saying 3-4 is something to brag about, but going to the NBA Finals 7 straight years in the free agency & salary cap era? That's insane. Problem for him is that dropping to 3-5 will give the haters fresh ammo to fire barbs.

 

[QueBert]

Mike Brown had the 2 best regular season Cavs teams ever, and managed an ECF loss and an ECSF loss with them. Right now it looks like the Dubs coach themselves, but in a close contest, Brown is a significant liability IMO. His track record just sucks as a head coach.

To be fair the ECF loss 2 of their 3 best players were out, they still managed to win 2 games and a bench player owned Curry for a game. It was James and a bunch of guys who had hardly played much at all. No coach could have lead them to a title that season. All things considered, they did far better than they should have in those finals.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Kyrie put on a clinic last night. Dude is coooold blooded.

Ya, Kyrie is insane on days that he doesn't suck.

 

[preslove]

The Spurs would have won a game or two vs the Warriors, but I couldn't see them winning the series even if perfectly healthy. It's not that the Spurs aren't a great team. They are, and they match up well with the Warriors down the line favorably until you get to point guard and then Curry is just such a huge upgrade over Parker or Mills at this point that it would have tilted a healthy series.

On the other hand though a Celtics team that had absolutely no favorable matchups somehow won a game vs the Cavs last night... So a health Spurs team definitely could have stolen the series if they got lucky.

The spurs would have won game 1 if Leonard didn't get injured in the dirty play. Your entire argument is worthless.

 

[manly]

To be fair the ECF loss 2 of their 3 best players were out, they still managed to win 2 games and a bench player owned Curry for a game. It was James and a bunch of guys who had hardly played much at all. No coach could have lead them to a title that season. All things considered, they did far better than they should have in those finals.

What does Mike Brown and the 2009 ECF have to do with the 2015 NBA Finals?