2015 NFL draft and offseason thread: How will the Browns screw up this year?

[angminas]

The teams with the ability to draft Mariota or Winston should look very seriously at trading that pick. I'm not crazy about either one of them, but somebody out there will be.

 

[smackababy]

The teams with the ability to draft Mariota or Winston should look very seriously at trading that pick. I'm not crazy about either one of them, but somebody out there will be.

If we look at the king's ransom paid for a top QB pick recently, both those teams could easily make out like bandits.

 

[preslove]

The teams with the ability to draft Mariota or Winston should look very seriously at trading that pick. I'm not crazy about either one of them, but somebody out there will be.

Trading down higher picks for more lower picks is the only rational strategy in the nfl.

 

[MetalMat]

Trading down higher picks for more lower picks is the only rational strategy in the nfl.

The problem is with a team like Tampa that there will be instant mutiny against Lovie Smith if they go into the season with Glennon as their starter. I don't think Glennon is terrible but I don't think he is better than a backup QB at this point.

 

[zinfamous]

A little humor for the day....

(sfw)

http://imgur.com/a/xzEUx

I laffed. like, a lot.

 

[zinfamous]

If we look at the king's ransom paid for a top QB pick recently, both those teams could easily make out like bandits.

they need to work on that O-Line in Tampa. They have too many weapons to not be competitive in their division.

The problem is with a team like Tampa that there will be instant mutiny against Lovie Smith if they go into the season with Glennon as their starter. I don't think Glennon is terrible but I don't think he is better than a backup QB at this point.

Glennon is no worse than a guy like Dilfer, and Glennon can actually move. Give him another second or two in the pocket, an extra target and someone to clear space for Martin, and that team can pull a Dallas next year. ....OK, that's crazy. He's not Romo, but Tampa has too many tools out there to suck as bad as they do on the field.

 

[glenn1]

ATL to release SJax. LeVeon Bell to get 2 game suspension for his DUI. Seahawks reportedly looking to sign former Browns TE Jordan Cameron.

 

[Ban Bot]

I expect Seattle to surprise people in how active they are in free agency. They have $23M free in 2015, $66M in 2016, and $99M in 2017. That includes the Avril and Wright contracts (as well as Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Bennett).

Due to having Wilson on a rookie contract for 3 years they have been able to extend guys early at market contracts. Most of these contracts fill in the first year with a large signing bonus but small salary and guaranteed 2nd year figure with a steady incline year over year. This is how they were able to dump Harvin without a huge cap hit--they cut him in year 2 of the contract and yet the savings by trading him effectively balanced out the 2015 cap hit (i.e. The $7M cap hit was balanced out by the 2014 savings in shipping him).

The three orders of business will be 1a. Wilson, 2a. Wagner, and 2b. Lynch. Marshawn already is making significant money so I think he may see a couple Million bump plus maybe some down the road guaranteed money (e.g. a bump from $8.5M to $11.0M fully guaranteed in 2015 plus $3M roster guarantee in 2016 and $7M in salary--basically $12.5M in new money and $14M in guarantees to a 29 year old running back. Total guess but ball park).

I fully expect Wilson and Wagner to be extended, with their 2015 numbers going up but not a ton; instead offset by the signing bonus and year 2 and 3 guarantees. Basically the same structure given to Sherman and Harvin. Seattle has leverage here because the players want the guaranteed money as soon as possible. Players want to rip up the 4th year on the rookie deals but the teams hold sway over the franchise tag in the 5th year so the guarantees while keeping the 4th year low has been a winning compromise.

Net sum is Seattle will likely need to fork over $10M-$15M of their 2015 cap for Wilson, Wagner, and Lynch. But the cap will likely go up $5M more than projected leaving Seattle with $10-$15M in 2015 to play with and a huge chunk in 2016/2017.

And then there are the cuts. They save $5.5M from cutting DT Mebane, $3.0M for DT McDaniels, and $2.4M for TE Miller. What do they have in common? Last year of their contract. All will be 30 or 31 next year. And Miller and Mebane had significant injuries in 2015. "Young Forever" indicates 2 of the 3 will be gone. If Seattle gets a big free agent TE Miller is gone; that aside I think they keep him as they won't find a $2.4M replacement ($3.4M salary - $1M dead money). McDaniels didn't live up to his contract and Mebane's injury sounds pretty serious. That is $11M from salary cuts.

The salary cap savings on cuts, plus the cap space after extending Wilson, Lynch, and Wagner, and factoring in the $4-5M for injury replacement contracts Seattle, I predict, will have about $20M in cap space to use for new contracts in 2015.

I expect them to build through the draft (looks like 10-11 picks) for the most part, target Mashall or Fitz as a vet receiver for a short term solution, and make a surprising signing--just like they did with Avril and Bennett after the 2012 season ending loss to Atlanta. Getting Wilson a big target or two, DL rotation depth, and a plan for slot corner/2nd CB, and building the OL (finding a replacement for Okung after next year) are all big picture issues. Slot corner in particular--in 2012 Trufant was toasted by Atlanta. Seattle got VERY deep there in 2013 with Thurmond, Lane, and Maxwell so even when Browner and Thurmond went out they still had Lane and Maxwell. This year they loss Browner and Thurmond to free agency and then lost for stretched Lane, Maxwell, and Jefferson. The problem with a very physical secondary is injuries so Seattle will address this.

I wouldn't be surprised with Seattle nabbing Marcus Peters if available at pick 31. I don't think they will overpay to keep Maxwell--they need to keep the DB salaries in check and Maxwell is good, not great, and didn't provide press ability like Browner which forced more Cover 3.

 

[Pocatello]

Trading down higher picks for more lower picks is the only rational strategy in the nfl.

People still think a single person can lift a bad team into a winning franchise, it's going to take a very extra ordinary gifted athlete to do that, a miracle worker. Fans and owners want to see instant success, as they see many last place teams make the playoffs the next year. Instead of building a team from the draft, many teams signed rich contract to free agent players, only to realize those players are let go to the free agency for a reason.

 

[glenn1]

I expect Seattle to surprise people in how active they are in free agency. They have $23M free in 2015, $66M in 2016, and $99M in 2017. That includes the Avril and Wright contracts (as well as Sherman, Thomas, Chancellor, Bennett).

Due to having Wilson on a rookie contract for 3 years they have been able to extend guys early at market contracts. Most of these contracts fill in the first year with a large signing bonus but small salary and guaranteed 2nd year figure with a steady incline year over year. This is how they were able to dump Harvin without a huge cap hit--they cut him in year 2 of the contract and yet the savings by trading him effectively balanced out the 2015 cap hit (i.e. The $7M cap hit was balanced out by the 2014 savings in shipping him).

The three orders of business will be 1a. Wilson, 2a. Wagner, and 2b. Lynch. Marshawn already is making significant money so I think he may see a couple Million bump plus maybe some down the road guaranteed money (e.g. a bump from $8.5M to $11.0M fully guaranteed in 2015 plus $3M roster guarantee in 2016 and $7M in salary--basically $12.5M in new money and $14M in guarantees to a 29 year old running back. Total guess but ball park).

I fully expect Wilson and Wagner to be extended, with their 2015 numbers going up but not a ton; instead offset by the signing bonus and year 2 and 3 guarantees. Basically the same structure given to Sherman and Harvin. Seattle has leverage here because the players want the guaranteed money as soon as possible. Players want to rip up the 4th year on the rookie deals but the teams hold sway over the franchise tag in the 5th year so the guarantees while keeping the 4th year low has been a winning compromise.

Net sum is Seattle will likely need to fork over $10M-$15M of their 2015 cap for Wilson, Wagner, and Lynch. But the cap will likely go up $5M more than projected leaving Seattle with $10-$15M in 2015 to play with and a huge chunk in 2016/2017.

And then there are the cuts. They save $5.5M from cutting DT Mebane, $3.0M for DT McDaniels, and $2.4M for TE Miller. What do they have in common? Last year of their contract. All will be 30 or 31 next year. And Miller and Mebane had significant injuries in 2015. "Young Forever" indicates 2 of the 3 will be gone. If Seattle gets a big free agent TE Miller is gone; that aside I think they keep him as they won't find a $2.4M replacement ($3.4M salary - $1M dead money). McDaniels didn't live up to his contract and Mebane's injury sounds pretty serious. That is $11M from salary cuts.

The salary cap savings on cuts, plus the cap space after extending Wilson, Lynch, and Wagner, and factoring in the $4-5M for injury replacement contracts Seattle, I predict, will have about $20M in cap space to use for new contracts in 2015.

I expect them to build through the draft (looks like 10-11 picks) for the most part, target Mashall or Fitz as a vet receiver for a short term solution, and make a surprising signing--just like they did with Avril and Bennett after the 2012 season ending loss to Atlanta. Getting Wilson a big target or two, DL rotation depth, and a plan for slot corner/2nd CB, and building the OL (finding a replacement for Okung after next year) are all big picture issues. Slot corner in particular--in 2012 Trufant was toasted by Atlanta. Seattle got VERY deep there in 2013 with Thurmond, Lane, and Maxwell so even when Browner and Thurmond went out they still had Lane and Maxwell. This year they loss Browner and Thurmond to free agency and then lost for stretched Lane, Maxwell, and Jefferson. The problem with a very physical secondary is injuries so Seattle will address this.

I wouldn't be surprised with Seattle nabbing Marcus Peters if available at pick 31. I don't think they will overpay to keep Maxwell--they need to keep the DB salaries in check and Maxwell is good, not great, and didn't provide press ability like Browner which forced more Cover 3.

I can't possibly see Peters lasting until the 1.31 pick. CB is literally the top need for at least 4-5 and maybe more teams in the league. No way in hell he makes it past the Eagles. So long as the 'Hawks don't make the mistake of drafting Dorial-Green Beckham I think you're OK.

 

[Ban Bot]

I can't possibly see Peters lasting until the 1.31 pick. CB is literally the top need for at least 4-5 and maybe more teams in the league. No way in hell he makes it past the Eagles. So long as the 'Hawks don't make the mistake of drafting Dorial-Green Beckham I think you're OK.

I am dumb but I would draft at 31, in order based on need:

1. Peters -- Maxwell is going to leave a big hole. Peters has all the tools and would be a ~ $1M player for 4 years. I already wrote about depth in the Seattle secondary, Peter's addresses that. He is a Top10 talent who will fall due to on field issues (but not performance) and would be, in the long-term, and improvement over Maxwell IMO as he would bring press skills back to the LOB. Seattle's M.O. is to draft corners low and coach them up but they have no one on the shelf right now other than Simon who is clearly an outside-only cover corner.

2. Gurley -- Lynch will eventually retire, but I think he has 2 years with the Hawks. Gurley IMO is like Lynch in that he is physical and can make yards with a bad line (moreso than Gordon IMO). C Michael is a physical stud but the team seems cold on him so to remain a run-first team Seattle needs to get a great back somehow. Gurley is a Top10 talent who could be a 2nd round pick based on injury. And he plays EXACTLY how they want. The idea of spelling Lynch with Gurley in 2015-2016 is downright awesome.

3. Green-Beckham -- Seattle needs 2 big targets in 2015 so Beckham may not be the immediate need player to fill those shoes. Fitz or Marshall plus a TE free agent would be a short term fix... but Beckham has huge upside. But his legal troubles could be nasty. I like Beckham on the field and he reminds me of Bruce Irvin who has been a pretty good guy off the field and matured a LOT. From what I have read Beckham had a troubled youth but is heading in the right direction (kind of like Moss or Dez Bryant). 10 years of Wilson-to-Beckham is only tempered by the fact Beckham, another Top10 talent, could fall out of the first couple days.

Who in order of red flags:

1. Peters -- significant coaching issues. Could he be another Harvin? Coach Pete is recommending him to the NFL...
2. Gurley -- injuries, could be a PUP candidate. Might never be the same and plays a punishing position.
3. Green-Beckham -- multiple significant off field legal issues. I think his issues are different but looking at Gordon and Blackmon a team has to be SCARED about his off field issues. Who needs a Rice/Peterson/Hardy headache???

But I think in terms of "up side" these 3 are inverted

1. Green-Beckham -- Could be a slower Megatron, crazy catch radius and red zone threat. 6'5" with huge hops, long arms, and soft hands and seems to love football. He is open even when covered just like Dez.
2. Gurley -- I could see him rushing for 1,000 yards in 4 of the next 6 seasons if he stays healthy. He has the Lynch wiggle and that tenacity to make something out of nothing.
3. Peters -- I think Peters has the best tools to be successful early I don't see in him anything that makes you think he will be the next Revis, Sherman, or Champ Bailey. Whoever gets him gets a versatile player with a lot of upside but right now I don't see the desire to take whatever coaching he can get to be the best. Green-Beckham and Gurley appear to have that fire, I don't see it in Peters.

Save this post because in 5 years I will have it totally wrong.

I would be shocked if not at least 1 of them lasts to 31 and think it is 50/50 they would take one if there--66/33 if 2 are there, and 99% chance if all 3. All 3 meet pressing short term needs and Peters and Green-Beckham address immediate needs.

 

[Imported]

Drafting DGB at 31 might not be a mistake if he's still there. Hell, I kinda even want the 49ers to draft him at 15.

 

[manimal]

I can't possibly see Peters lasting until the 1.31 pick. CB is literally the top need for at least 4-5 and maybe more teams in the league. No way in hell he makes it past the Eagles. So long as the 'Hawks don't make the mistake of drafting Dorial-Green Beckham I think you're OK.

I dont think Peters gets picked in the first with all those pass rushers and big boys on both sides of the ball.


Dorial Green freakshow is rising up peoples boards after the interviews and metting him face to face.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2362711-2015-nfl-draft-matt-millers-pre-combine-scouting-notebook

Funny exerpt from above

This is a draft article, but first a very credible rumor that will affect the draft: I'm told the New York Jets plan to roll out the red carpet for Demaryius Thomas if he doesn't receive the franchise tag from the Denver Broncos.

— After seeing Dorial Green-Beckham in person before the Super Bowl, I started asking NFL scouts what they've heard about his year at Oklahoma. As one Southwest scout assigned to Oklahoma told me, "He's completely turned his life around. Big brother moved in, whipped his ass and took control. He's on the straight-and-narrow since leaving Mizzou."


article also mentions Peters

Former Washington cornerback Marcus Peters will get a lot of space in this article, but it's important to note that he'll be working out at the Husky's Pro Day in early April, per a team source. Peters was dismissed from the team midway through the year.

wonder why he isnt going to the combine? May raise red flags

 

[Jimzz]

ATL to release SJax. LeVeon Bell to get 2 game suspension for his DUI. Seahawks reportedly looking to sign former Browns TE Jordan Cameron.

Yea I have been saying that for a while. He cost to much and Atlanta needs a long term running back. With new coaches no point to keep someone that at best has maybe another year left.

Not sure of another team will give him a try, he may be done.

 

[manimal]

I am dumb but I would draft at 31, in order based on need:

1. Peters -- Maxwell is going to leave a big hole. Peters has all the tools and would be a ~ $1M player for 4 years. I already wrote about depth in the Seattle secondary, Peter's addresses that. He is a Top10 talent who will fall due to on field issues (but not performance) and would be, in the long-term, and improvement over Maxwell IMO as he would bring press skills back to the LOB. Seattle's M.O. is to draft corners low and coach them up but they have no one on the shelf right now other than Simon who is clearly an outside-only cover corner.

2. Gurley -- Lynch will eventually retire, but I think he has 2 years with the Hawks. Gurley IMO is like Lynch in that he is physical and can make yards with a bad line (moreso than Gordon IMO). C Michael is a physical stud but the team seems cold on him so to remain a run-first team Seattle needs to get a great back somehow. Gurley is a Top10 talent who could be a 2nd round pick based on injury. And he plays EXACTLY how they want. The idea of spelling Lynch with Gurley in 2015-2016 is downright awesome.

3. Green-Beckham -- Seattle needs 2 big targets in 2015 so Beckham may not be the immediate need player to fill those shoes. Fitz or Marshall plus a TE free agent would be a short term fix... but Beckham has huge upside. But his legal troubles could be nasty. I like Beckham on the field and he reminds me of Bruce Irvin who has been a pretty good guy off the field and matured a LOT. From what I have read Beckham had a troubled youth but is heading in the right direction (kind of like Moss or Dez Bryant). 10 years of Wilson-to-Beckham is only tempered by the fact Beckham, another Top10 talent, could fall out of the first couple days.

Who in order of red flags:

1. Peters -- significant coaching issues. Could he be another Harvin? Coach Pete is recommending him to the NFL...
2. Gurley -- injuries, could be a PUP candidate. Might never be the same and plays a punishing position.
3. Green-Beckham -- multiple significant off field legal issues. I think his issues are different but looking at Gordon and Blackmon a team has to be SCARED about his off field issues. Who needs a Rice/Peterson/Hardy headache???

But I think in terms of "up side" these 3 are inverted

1. Green-Beckham -- Could be a slower Megatron, crazy catch radius and red zone threat. 6'5" with huge hops, long arms, and soft hands and seems to love football. He is open even when covered just like Dez.
2. Gurley -- I could see him rushing for 1,000 yards in 4 of the next 6 seasons if he stays healthy. He has the Lynch wiggle and that tenacity to make something out of nothing.
3. Peters -- I think Peters has the best tools to be successful early I don't see in him anything that makes you think he will be the next Revis, Sherman, or Champ Bailey. Whoever gets him gets a versatile player with a lot of upside but right now I don't see the desire to take whatever coaching he can get to be the best. Green-Beckham and Gurley appear to have that fire, I don't see it in Peters.

Save this post because in 5 years I will have it totally wrong.

I would be shocked if not at least 1 of them lasts to 31 and think it is 50/50 they would take one if there--66/33 if 2 are there, and 99% chance if all 3. All 3 meet pressing short term needs and Peters and Green-Beckham address immediate needs.

Peters of all the early round possible character guys seems the most likely to continue the shitty behavior.

I would rather have Gurley of all those guys but I am now less worried about DGB as a bad character guy because it seems like he hit his rock bottom. He may end up being as fast as Megatron which would make my earlier assessment of a round 2 pick a much less likely outcome. I bet the combine speed numbers changes up a bunch of stuff. The stuff I think that is gonna be more interesting is the measurables. I best a couple of the OTs surprise people with thier athleticism and there is a run on OTs and Gs in the late first and second.

nature only makes a few big guys that move like that a few times a year.


I think this years draft is quickly approching the talent levels of last year with the big gaps being QB and 4-3 defensive ends. Tons of 3-4 guys and developemental pass rushers. 6-8 starting Guards in this draft. 4-5 RTs and 2-3 real RT prospects. Tons of Zone blockers with quickness and ability to get to the second level and some maulers that can push the beef around. Last year had more blue chip prospects and depth at certain positions but this year has so much more in so many spots. There are developmental starters in the 3 and 4th round and starting centers available in the 4th round and starting running backs available till the fifth.
So many recievers its not even funny. 5 guys could break 4.4

Devin Smith and Dorsett could be historic.


the miami kid timed his 40 this year as the fastest player to ever get timed there at the U.

Fastest ever? didnt whatshisname go there?

 

[glenn1]

Good for SEA if Peters lasts until the 1.31 but I don't think he will.

Ugh on Demaryious Thomas to the Jets. That would be close to the worst possible landing spot for him besides maybe BUF or CLE.

 

[Phokus]

Hahahahaha, someone did a BRILLIANT Hitler Downfall Parody of Rodger Goodell and the Pats winning the superbowl here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImljYg8-W7w&feature=youtu.be

 

[glenn1]

Impending free agent Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw just arrested for MJ possession.

 

[manimal]

Impending free agent Colts RB Ahmad Bradshaw just arrested for MJ possession.

Its always the running backs with the MJ.



Its like theres some kind of club where all the RBs hang out and smoke spliffs and listen to Marley



The free agency list is shaping up to be pretty damn good though the franchise tags are coming.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAj72pOPmto

Really like Jalen Mills Cover work and his body control when the ball is in the air in this video. Guy makes plays on balls most guys wouldnt get to. Really like him as a cover corner. Cant believe they are saying he is gonna be a 3rd rounder. I dont see much difference between him and Peters I think Mills may be faster. There are a few corners who could break 4.4 this year and rocket up the boards like the kid from Florida

 

[manimal]

Cowgirls declined option on Melton. HAHA


http://draftbreakdown.com/video/denzel-perryman-vs-florida-state-2014/


Denzel Perryman all 22 coverage from the FSU Miami game this year. Interesting tape since he starts the game and dominates for 3 quarters and wilts in the 4th and gives up huge runs and whiffs on two tackles.

Great player who is a stud against the run but may have gained too much weight this year to be more physical and lost a little something in coverage. I thought he looked better in coverage last year.

As he is now he is an AWESOME jack backer in a 3-4 since he can key the run and stay close to the line of scrimmage and coverage areas that are much smaller than a 4-3. I could see him getting exposed i coverage in a 4-3 since he would be responsible for a wider range of field. Guy would be amazing in Fangios and in 3-4 scheme where he plays downhill and doesnt have to take on guards or centers since you can see on the tape above a athletic blocker in the second level gives him trouble and he gets stuck on blocks and misses tape.


I think he should have come out last year and would have been taken right after Moseley who had a pro bowl year in a jack backer position in their hybrid 3-4

mike singletary anyone?

 

[manimal]

Broncos havent said ANYTHING officially after Peyton Manning announced he was coming back.

Could PFManning hit free agency

 

[MetalMat]

n.

Glennon is no worse than a guy like Dilfer, and Glennon can actually move. Give him another second or two in the pocket, an extra target and someone to clear space for Martin, and that team can pull a Dallas next year. ....OK, that's crazy. He's not Romo, but Tampa has too many tools out there to suck as bad as they do on the field.

Because this is not the 2002 Bucs with the monster defense. Tampa has some good pieces to their team but I still they are 2-3 years from actually being a competitor. Glennon is not a bad QB but I don't think he is the answer for that team, I think he would be better off backing up someone like Carson Palmer. I'm not a huge Cam Newton fan but if you put him in Tampa they would be winning more games because he has a rocket arm and they have huge wide receivers

 

[manimal]

Browns rumored to have offered a 4th for Kirk Cousins but Washington wanted a 2nd.

http://walterfootball.com/nflrumors.php



Pittsburgh is allowing Jason Worldis or w/e his name is to hit free agency. Guy has upside unlike Orakpo who has injury issues and didnt make any impact when healthy last year and in serious decline. I bet Orakpo takes a 1 year prove it deal on a contender.

 

[manimal]

http://nfltraderumors.co/adam-gase-reportedly-balked-at-hiring-jim-tomsula-as-defensive-coordinator/

Gase reportedly offered the 49ers job if he made Tomsula the DC. Gase was then offered the OC after Tomsula offered and he said um no.

Interesting narrative coming out of San Fran Land.

 

[glenn1]

Browns rumored to have offered a 4th for Kirk Cousins but Washington wanted a 2nd.

http://walterfootball.com/nflrumors.php



Pittsburgh is allowing Jason Worldis or w/e his name is to hit free agency. Guy has upside unlike Orakpo who has injury issues and didnt make any impact when healthy last year and in serious decline. I bet Orakpo takes a 1 year prove it deal on a contender.

WAS might have gotten the 2nd too if they did that deal last year. As it was when Cousins started this season he wasn't very good. Browns might have lucked out on this one in spite of themselves.