2014 Gasoline Price Forecast

[realibrad]

6-10-2014

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101748086?__...yahoo&doc=101748086|Hot oil prices could burn

Hot oil prices could burn consumers



Crude oil has soared over the past week, crossing about the $105 level for the first time since March.



"From a fundamental standpoint, when you net back $105 crude oil, we are looking at a hit to the consumer. For instance, over the last couple of weeks, we've seen a $3.50 run-up in price—that will translate to about an eight- or ten-cent rise at the pump for the consumer. AAA prices are right around $3.65 a gallon on a national average—we could be looking at, over the next couple of weeks, should oil stay at this level, at $3.75. And for the consumer, that is a lot of money."

Are you just going to ignore the fact that global demand is up? You call me out, attack my intelligence and then dont back up anything you have been saying. You realize who the "thug" is right? People come back to you with data, and you spout ideology. If all you have is ideology then how are you any better than the "thugs" you so seem to detest?

 

[Engineer]

Gas has been the same price, accounting for inflation, for the last 40 years. You expect other things to go up except for gas? That's just weird.

So gas should just go up because other things went up and supply/demand should be totally ignored? Rising production / rising supplies and lower usage of ANYTHING else in the US would result in lower prices.

Speculation and easy fed money is keeping it high. Hell, even Exxon's CEO stated that without speculators, oil would be in the $60 per barrel range.

By the way, did you arbitrarily pick oil from 40 years ago?

I can say that oil is up over 1,000% from 1998 (was $10.25 per barrel that year with gas as low as $0.499 per gallon in Corbin, KY.

Good ole supply and demand works great, until it goes against your position.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by MagickMan
Gas has been the same price, accounting for inflation, for the last 40 years. You expect other things to go up except for gas? That's just weird.

So gas should just go up because other things went up and supply/demand should be totally ignored? Rising production / rising supplies and lower usage of ANYTHING else in the US would result in lower prices.

Speculation and easy fed money is keeping it high. Hell, even Exxon's CEO stated that without speculators, oil would be in the $60 per barrel range.

By the way, did you arbitrarily pick oil from 40 years ago?

I can say that oil is up over 1,000% from 1998 (was $10.25 per barrel that year with gas as low as $0.499 per gallon in Corbin, KY.

Good ole supply and demand works great, until it goes against your position.

There is a bunch of new characters like Magic that I suspect are RBM's and/or paid shills for the Oil Thug Industry.

They post such nonsense contrary to the facts. Newest member has a auspicious nickname feigning reality when his posts are pure fantasy garbage.

 

[dmcowen674]

Oil Oil everywhere but still price climbing fast.

Back to using the old standby Irag excuse once again.

Bush be proud

Will they push the $150 mark once again?


6-12-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-jumps-near-106-iraq-103140820.html

Oil jumps to near $106 on Iraq violence



Oil rose to near $106 per barrel Thursday as an insurgency in Iraq raised the risk of disruption to supplies after OPEC vowed to keep output unchanged.

The al-Qaida-inspired group that captured two key cities in Iraq earlier this week vowed Thursday to march on to Baghdad.

 

[dmcowen674]

Oil now past $106

6-12-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cln14.nym


Crude Oil Jul 14 (CLN14.NYM)

-NY Mercantile Follow

106.09

1.69(1.62%) 9:42AM EDT

 

[dmcowen674]

6-12-2014

How the Oil Thugs will profit more from plentiful U.S. oil using Iraq violence excuse

Their Thuggery bolded below

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/2014/06/12/will-sharp-rise-in-crude-increase-gasoline-prices/

Will Sharp Rise in Crude Increase Gasoline Prices?

The turmoil in Iraq is raising concerns about the ability of the country to continue delivering about 3.3 million barrels of crude a day to the global supply. Iraq is currently the second-largest producer among OPEC members, trailing only Saudi Arabia.


Iraqi production reached a high of 3.6 million barrels a day earlier this year, and the Iraqis said as recently as Tuesday that the country would reach its goal of 4 million barrels a day by the end of this year. Unless the political situation magically stabilizes quickly, that will not happen.

Why, if the United States is producing so much oil right now, will gasoline prices rise in response to the events in Iraq? Especially because U.S. crude cannot be exported. The United States still imports around 7 million barrels of oil a day and that oil is priced on the Brent benchmark.



As long as some U.S. refiners are paying the Brent price and selling their refined products at a higher price, all U.S. refiners will sell at the higher price regardless of how much the refiner pays for crude.



Refiners in the United States that have access to cheaper U.S. crude will raise fuel prices and pocket the higher profits.


The price increases will start fairly quickly too.


The longer the situation in Iraq continues, the more U.S. drivers can expect to pay at the pump.

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[realibrad]

First, what is RBM. I'm still pretty new to this section.

Let me take a crack at this....

"Gasoline and diesel fuel prices decrease
The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline decreased by two cents this week to $3.67 per gallon as of June 11, 2014, two cents more than the same time last year. Price decreases occurred in all regions of the country except for the Rocky Mountains, which increased less than a cent to $3.51 per gallon. The Midwest and Gulf Coast each declined two cents, to $3.69 and $3.42 per gallon respectively. West Coast and East Coast prices both decreased by a penny, to $4.00 and $3.63 respectively."

The national average price for diesel fuel decreased by three cents from last week to $3.89 per gallon, four cents more than the same time last year. Prices for diesel fuel decreased in all areas of the country. The East Coast, Midwest, Rocky Mountains and West Coast all decreased by three cents, to $3.98, $3.85, $3.91, and $4.00 per gallon respectively. The Gulf Coast price declined by one cent to $3.77 per gallon."

http://www.eia.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

OMG OIL THUGS REDUCE PRICE TO TRICK AMERICANS. US NATIONAL OIL PRODUCTION AT SAME LEVELS AS 1992!

Did I do it right?

 

[desy]

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/cheap-oil-is-gone-forever/4458

It costs money to get fraked oil
"Much of tomorrow's oil isn't of the light, sweet variety craved by refiners"

http://bittooth.blogspot.ca/2014/06/tech-talk-optimism-is-becoming-harder.html

"The major oil companies have urged complacency having bet on Iraq and OPEC coming through (and in the process assumed that Saudi Arabia would also increase production significantly above 10 mbd, something that they have consistently declined to commit to doing). As Libya and Iraq remove that surplus from the table then the question becomes where else can it come from?

It is increasingly unlikely that US increases in production can be sustained for long, given the very short high-level life of the new wells completed in shale, and as the sweet spots in the current fields are consumed. Thus within a couple of years we are now likely to see an increasingly desperate search for new reserves. But those reserves take years to find and develop (as well as large amounts of money), and if the crisis comes at a faster pace than most now expect, then $100 a barrel oil may seem an absurdly cheap price to have had to pay"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...il-hoarding-seen-keeping-crude-above-100.html

There are a multitude of drivers keeping oil high

"China is hoarding crude at the fastest pace in at least a decade, shielding itself from supply disruptions and helping keep prices above $100 a barrel. "


I for one never mocked your drive for $5 back in the day in fact as a peak oil supporter I expected it. What wasn't expected was the collapse in the world economy suppressing price and the lost decade of the North American economy and why we have an eroding middle class.

Now instead of the constant whining about the price of a barrel of oil, accept it and move to the realization you need to mitigate how the price impacts you. As I pointed out in the mid income thread everyone is going to have to accept a lower standard of living as there are too many drivers pulling us down to keep us at the top of the worlds economy

 

[MagickMan]

So gas should just go up because other things went up and supply/demand should be totally ignored? Rising production / rising supplies and lower usage of ANYTHING else in the US would result in lower prices.

Do I need to explain how inflation works? How a dollar today doesn't buy what it did even just a couple years ago? Really? How much did you pay for a can of soda in 2004 and what is it today, despite the fact they're making even more soda now?

 

[MagickMan]

Originally Posted by MagickMan
Gas has been the same price, accounting for inflation, for the last 40 years. You expect other things to go up except for gas? That's just weird.




There is a bunch of new characters like Magic that I suspect are RBM's and/or paid shills for the Oil Thug Industry.

They post such nonsense contrary to the facts. Newest member has a auspicious nickname feigning reality when his posts are pure fantasy garbage.

I've never worked for the oil industry. You're a complete idiot. :\

 

[dmcowen674]

I for one never mocked your drive for $5 back in the day in fact as a peak oil supporter I expected it.

What wasn't expected was the collapse in the world economy suppressing price and the lost decade of the North American economy and why we have an eroding middle class.

Now instead of the constant whining about the price of a barrel of oil, accept it and move to the realization you need to mitigate how the price impacts you.

As I pointed out in the mid income thread everyone is going to have to accept a lower standard of living as there are too many drivers pulling us down to keep us at the top of the worlds economy

OMG what a defeatist.

This is what is wrong with Americans now, just super pussies.

Sad, just so sad.

 

[realibrad]

OMG what a defeatist.

This is what is wrong with Americans now, just super pussies.

Sad, just so sad.

Uh oh, we have a Bush Republican Thug who wants to de-pussy murica. dmcowen674 is just another republican who thinks he knows whats best for the country.

 

[desy]

Its not like beating the Germans, which lack of oil is one of the things that defeated the Germans BTW.
Oil is finite, geology is making it harder, technology helps but can't compete against reality. Buy a car that uses less, move closer to work, eat better, consume less isn't defeatist. Or like Bush your of the our lifestyle is not negotiable camp?
Things change, adapt, I plan on having a perfectly comfortable happy life regardless of the price of oil.

 

[Engineer]

Do I need to explain how inflation works? How a dollar today doesn't buy what it did even just a couple years ago? Really? How much did you pay for a can of soda in 2004 and what is it today, despite the fact they're making even more soda now?

Then why was oil $10.25 per barrel in 1998 and gas as low as $0.49 then. There was inflation over that 24 year period (from 1974 (your 40 years ago) to 1998). Can you explain that since apparently everything rises the same rate in your inflationary world with no influence from supply and demand at all.

Thanks in advance.

 

[realibrad]

Then why was oil $10.25 per barrel in 1998 and gas as low as $0.49 then. There was inflation over that 24 year period (from 1974 (your 40 years ago) to 1998). Can you explain that since apparently everything rises the same rate in your inflationary world with no influence from supply and demand at all.

Thanks in advance.

I think you are missing a fundamental thing about prices. If a company can raise prices, and consumption stays the same, then, either that good that was under priced, or its a necessity and has inelastic demand.

Many would say oil has an inelastic demand, even though it does not. You can get power from other sources. Its just that its far more efficient to power things with oil than any other method right now.

that leaves the argument that oil prices are going up, because the value of oil is going up. The reason prices "should" go up, is because it rations supply. When oil prices go up, less of it is used, and not just because of an inability to pay. If the price of gas went up to $8/gal, people would still drive cars, but they would drive far less. People would carpool, or take other modes of transportation. The reason we drive so much, is because gas is cheap.

Prices are not arbitrary. If you can raise the price, and use less supply, you better damn well do it. The argument is not because of greed either.

Do you think the world would be better off if gas was back to $1/gal? That is not a rhetorical question either. Imagine the effect that would have on the planet if we could get gas at a price that low.

 

[Engineer]

Do you think the world would be better off if gas was back to $1/gal? That is not a rhetorical question either. Imagine the effect that would have on the planet if we could get gas at a price that low.

A resounding 'fuck yes'. The late 90's were awesome in that respect.

and for the record, US consumption has dropped to multi decade lows while in the tank supplies are at all time highs. Production is also at multi decade highs.

 

[dmcowen674]

Remember the beginning of the year (just look at the OP) , the experts said prices would not spike and i said they would be wrong.

I also said we could see $6 this year.

Well well well Iraq 3 is here

6-12-2014

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101755408

Oil could rise another $15



Crude oil is surging on news of the geopolitical crisis in Iraq, but the spike might not even be close to over, according to Oppenheimer senior energy analyst Fadel Gheit.


"Iraq is responsible for 3 million barrels a day of crude oil supply," Gheit pointed out on Thursday's "Futures Now." So "if Iraq stops exporting oil… add that to the disruption in Libya, the situation in Nigeria, you'll have a total of more than 4 million barrels of lower supply worldwide. And that could push oil prices to a much higher level—maybe 10,15 dollars higher from here."

With crude oil settling at about $106.50 per barrel on Thursday, already a nine-month high, the high estimate would mean crude oil above $120. And lest investors consider that impossible, Gheit is quick to remind that "we've experienced $150 oil five years ago—and we did not have disruption of 4 million barrels."

 

[realibrad]

A resounding 'fuck yes'. The late 90's were awesome in that respect.

and for the record, US consumption has dropped to multi decade lows while in the tank supplies are at all time highs. Production is also at multi decade highs.

Production is at an all time high, and the cost to get the oil is very high. On top of that, Global demand is at an all time high.

So you think that things would be great if gas was $1/gal. Let me ask you the next question. What do you think consumption would be? Oil is a limited resource. I dont know how much we have left, because we always seem to find more, but at some point we will run out. The reason prices are important is the rationing effect it has on limited resources. If the price of oil was cheap or even free, people would use it with out a care. Aside from the environmental, we would burn through the global supply too quickly.

Look at any resource that has been kept cheap with a high demand, you will see shortages. You see this after things like hurricanes because of price gouging laws. Retailers are not allowed to raise prices after a hurricane because they dont want people to be taken advantage of. So, when a hurricane comes, people buy up all the supplies. You cant bring in anything until the hurricane passes. After the hurricane passes, there is damage to the transportation network. The retailers could higher extra trucking companies, but that would cost extra, and cut into the margins. Often the profit margin is completely wipe out all profits at the price before the hurricane. So what do the retailers do when there is a huge demand, but no way to make a profit, shortages because they dont bring anything in.

If prices were higher, 2 things would have happened. First, people would be less likely to purchase supplies they dont need before the hurricane. Post hurricane, if prices were allowed to go up, you would get a huge influx of supplies coming in. The market would push prices down because of competition so they didn not continue to go up beyond some point. Retailers seeing possible profits would make sure to get supplies in at the new price point.

So if oil were cheap at 1/gal, you would see the world burn though the supply. There would be a huge boom in the economy, then a huge crash as the resource that feed it ran out. That shock would be horrible for the world. Moral of the story, prices are not arbitrary.

 

[Engineer]

*snip*

You're the only fucking person in the world that thinks that the US is better off because we get cheaper stuff from other countries (manufactured) yet think we are better off with higher gas prices. I guess this helps our poor too? How about our middle class?

Get your damn head out of a textbook and look at the real world around you.

You don't have a fucking clue of the real world....only textbook examples.

Shaking my fucking head.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

The total disconnect in the CA gasoline market from the rest of the nation will soon be absolute. Gas prices being heavily influenced by the taxes and regulations in CA will be/is a undeniable fact and the burden it creates on the average person will be evident as the costs will most rightly be passed onto consumers when CT goes into full effect. Whether it is passed on by companies by Chevron being taxed or CA's government directly taxing gasoline consumers it does not really matter in the end for the average guy trying to get by in life.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-28/california-carbon-tax-would-be-first-at-the-gas-pump.html

 

[dmcowen674]

6-13-2014

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-futures-above-107-iraq-063112909.html

Oil futures above $107 on Iraq fighting



Oil rose above $107 a barrel Friday as Iraq's widening insurgency raised the risk that plans to expand oil output from the No. 2 OPEC producer could be derailed.

 

[realibrad]

You're the only fucking person in the world that thinks that the US is better off because we get cheaper stuff from other countries (manufactured) yet think we are better off with higher gas prices. I guess this helps our poor too? How about our middle class?

Get your damn head out of a textbook and look at the real world around you.

You don't have a fucking clue of the real world....only textbook examples.

Shaking my fucking head.

Nothing in this world is either or. Economist are always accused of trying to have it both ways, because they look at everything.

I clearly said that there would be a boom in the short run if gas prices were low. But, like everything in life, there are tradeoffs. If you have a resource that is limited, and Oil very definitely is, then at some point you will run out. And if you make the price low, you will run out faster. Goods are not a resource like Oil is. The main difference between you and me, is that is that I dont think prices are arbitrary.

Prices are not just about profit and loss. Prices regulate supply in the long run as well. This is very important for limited resources. If resources were unlimited, then competition would push prices to be just about cost, and the margins would be razor thin. Oil is not unlimited, which means it should be used to give the greatest return relative to its supply. You do this with many other things, such as your money. Because your money is a limited resource, you don't spend all of it on 1 thing, you spread it out over all options that in net will bring you the most happiness. Oil should be treated the same way. As a resource, oil should be used where it brings the most value. Right now, the most efficient place to use oil is the USA. My country is the most productive country in the world. But, if you remove the constraints that limited resources bring, you get waste. Waste is trivial for the person wasting, and bad for everyone else in the world when you look at the net outcomes.

If the us is buying cheap goods, and the price mechanism is correctly functioning, then you should buy the cheaper good. If the mechanism for price is is ignored and prices are arbitrary, then it all breaks down. Resources will not go to their most efficient use, and waste will create horrible effects.

BTW, this is not text book, this is real life. You can see this happening now with things like pollution. The reason pollution is such a hard thing to control, is because 3rd party costs are not being applied to the price, and it in turn is artificially low. The things that cause pollution are being over consumed relative to the benefit they bring.

 

[desy]

The US as a net energy importer has a trade imbalance the higher the price of oil the worse it is. If gas would be a $ that would be a good thing, cheap energy is the lifeblood of an industrialized economy. We can argue about the environment in another thread.

However I'll keep pointing out the demand and geology and geo politics are going to conspire to keep prices permanently higher. You can wish for the good ole days but they aren't coming back.

For the sake of the economy it is necessary to transition away to hopefully a more environmentally sustainable resource. How we get there will be turbulent unless a scalable game changing solution comes out of a lab, soon, because for all of Dave's postings, he's pointing out the symptoms of an oil addicted economy.
Time to focus on solutions and that's where my energy and reading is directed

 

[realibrad]

The US as a net energy importer has a trade imbalance the higher the price of oil the worse it is. If gas would be a $ that would be a good thing, cheap energy is the lifeblood of an industrialized economy. We can argue about the environment in another thread.

However I'll keep pointing out the demand and geology and geo politics are going to conspire to keep prices permanently higher. You can wish for the good ole days but they aren't coming back.

For the sake of the economy it is necessary to transition away to hopefully a more environmentally sustainable resource. How we get there will be turbulent unless a scalable game changing solution comes out of a lab, soon, because for all of Dave's postings, he's pointing out the symptoms of an oil addicted economy.
Time to focus on solutions and that's where my energy and reading is directed

The environmental was not my main issue. When prices are low with out respect to a reason, you get over consumption that leads to shortages. The environmental effects are also an issue, but shortages is there as well. When the resource is limited, it will quickly run out.

 

[dmcowen674]

Oil closed near $107

Got 50 cent jump at the gas pumps today.

I expect it to keep making 30 to 50 cent jumps just about everyday now.

Obama is about to send aircraft strike into Iraq.

I predicted $6 gas this year but didn't realize it would be because of Iraq 3.