2013: Console market pillaged by Kaveri.

[Maragark]

2013 will be a very good year for AMD. They'll be releasing Bobcat's 28nm successor with GCN and the 28nm Steamroller with GCN (or maybe even GCNv2).

I'm very interested in both chips. Kabini (will be in competition with Atom) will probably perform better than some Llano chips. Kaveri though has the possibility to change the gaming market. Not only does it go up against Intel's offerings but it also poses a serious threat to the console market as well.

Everything is finally falling into place HDTV are pretty common and mini-ITX boards and cases are becoming common and most importantly, cheaper. Chips are becoming good enough at low power and cost to be used in mini-ITx builds and digital distribution has removed the need for a bulky optical drive. In 2013, I'm expecting to see a lot of 28nm Kaveri nettops priced similarly to consoles but with far better performance and functionality.

Trinity handles 1080P at low to mid settings so Kaveri will provide average 1080p graphics. I've never seen a game that needed more than 2 GB minimum of memory so 2x2GB memory would probably be enough but by then, you'll probably be better off getting 2x4 GB or even 2x8 GB. Given the GPU is dependent upon memory speed, I'd sacrifice amount of ram for faster ram and go for 2x2 or 2x4 of, at minimum, the highest rated officially supported speed (likely to be 2133MHz). Add in a 500 GB - 1 TB hard disk, case+psu (something like the Antek ISK110), wireless keyboard, mouse, xbox 360 controller (with wireless dongle), HDMI lead and ethernet cable (or wifi functionality) and you're all set to go on the hardware side.

A new PS3 with 500GB hard drive, 256 MB RAM, Nvidia 7800GTX GPU, wireless controller, HDMI cable and Assassin's Creed 3 for $300. $400 will get you the following mini-ITX PC to fit perfectly under the TV:

• IN WIN IW-BQ656T.AD80TBLR, Mini ITX case with 200W PSU - $54.99
• GEAR HEAD KB5150W 2.4GHz Wireless Desktop & Optical Mouse - $14.99
• AMD A10-5800K - $129.99
• Crucial Ballistix 2 x 2GB DDR3 1866 - $24.99
• OCZ Vertex Plus R2 VTXPLR2-25SAT2-120GB 2.5" SSD - $79.99
• ASRock A75M-ITX FM1 AMD A75 Mini ITX AMD Motherboard* - $89.99

* Using price of FM1 board due to lack of FM2 mini-ITX pricing.

By the time Kaveri comes out next year, mini-ITX should be a more established form factor and prices should be cheaper. Coupled with decreases in storage prices, we should be looking at around $300 for a similarly specced Kaveri system with greater performance.

Now, let's look at the software side. More and more indie devs are releasing Linux versions of games and Valve is about to release the Linux version of Steam and bring more developers around to support Linux as a result. This has great potential.

Imagine a steam based Linux build specifically targeting and optimised for a Kaveri platform, in a mini-ITX form factor that goes perfect under the TV (which can also dual-boot to windows of course).

This is the situation the next-gen consoles will be facing. We already know that they will be using AMD GPUs and there's also been rumours of AMD CPUs being used as well. It would make perfect sense for the next-gen consoles to be based on 28nm APUs.

If the next-gen consoles are not based on Kaveri or it's successor, then it will be interesting to see how those consoles compare to an APU based mini-ITX PC in performance and price. With the APU based system costing around $300-$400 with 8 GB RAM and 1TB hard drive, the next gen consoles are going to have to cost around $150-$250 to be competitive against the PC. The only benefit will be that the consoles will likely include a Blu-ray drive. Personally though, everything I play, watch and listen to I've downloaded. I could quite easily do without an optical drive, which has pretty much been replaced with a USB stick.

It's likely that when the next-gen consoles launch, they'll be going up against PCs that are smaller or just as small, more powerful, similarly priced, have a larger games library, the indie scene and everything that Steam and other distribution services brings to the table. All that and all the benefits of a full blown PC as well.

A lot of people are going to favour a mini-ITX PC over the next-gen consoles when it comes to upgrading their current console. That means developers will likely shift their focus back to the PC platform, convincing more people to choose the PC platform in turn. This has the potential to lead to an avalanche that would spell disaster for the console market but lead to a boom in the PC market.

 

[wlee15]

Did you really needed to use the term "pillage"?

 

[Blitzvogel]

Maragark, you forgot the OS cost, unless you're reusing the key that is.......

I think you're too optimistic, and it's starting to become more and more reasonable that we may see 2 TFLOP consoles next year or in 2013. Kaveri at best (and not considering bandwidth limitations) might come close to a full TFLOP (probably 800 GFLOPS), but I think we will continue to rely on dedicated graphics to get us that full 60 FPS 1080p with gobs of AA and AF we so crave.

 

[blastingcap]

2013

Welcome to the forums. AMD is already going to be in all three major console platforms so that other stuff doesn't matter to them so much.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Playstation 4

8 Modded Steamroller Cores(2 for the OS/6 for the games/hpc)
20 EGCN Cores(2 for the OS/18 for the games/hpc)

:whiste:

 

[ShintaiDK]

I think people are off to dreamland again.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

Maragark, you forgot the OS cost, unless you're reusing the key that is.......

Steam for Linux?

Playstation 4 or Xbox 3

8 Modded Steamroller Cores(2 for the OS/6 for the games/hpc)

Umm, no. Steamroller will not be ready by release. Even more, right now, people are talking about Jaguar cores, not BD ones.

Which, frankly, makes sense. Given the form factors they want to target, this time the most relevant limit for the whole system will be power output. Every single watt they spend on the CPU is a watt not spent on the GPU -- basically, the whole system split between CPU and GPU power is going to tilt way on the side of more GPU power.

20 EGCN Cores(2 for the OS/18 for the games/hpc)

Why would you ever want that? What exactly would the OS do with stream processing cores? The same question is relevant for the CPU cores. The OS on the next-gen consoles has no real need for any more reserved cpu power (although it has need for more reserved memory) than it did on last gen. I think it would be feasible that there will be a single low-power arm core to handle os functions. (Because this allows them to effectively isolate it from the rest of the system, allowing better security. Also, it would be sufficiently cheap that it simply wouldn't matter).

 

[Blitzvogel]

Steam for Linux?

Et tu Tuna?!

Touche

 

[NostaSeronx]

Steamroller will not be ready by release.

Excavator has been taped out already, the first version.

Even more, right now, people are talking about Jaguar cores, not BD ones.

It's for emulation purposes which are pretty compute/CPU heavy. Playstation 4 can run Playstation 3 games, Playstation 2 games, and Playstation 1 games.

What exactly would the OS do with stream processing cores?

Blu-ray, GUI, Playstation Button Overlay GUI, etc. All fall under the OS side.

 

[Tuna-Fish]

Excavator has been taped out already, the first version.

And which version of a CPU is typically the one that actually works? The 6th or 7th? If they want a 2013 launch, we are very much nearing the point where the designs have to be solid.

It's for emulation purposes which are pretty compute/CPU heavy. Playstation 4 can run Playstation 3 games, Playstation 2 games, and Playstation 1 games.

There is simply no way that a excavator would be able to emulate the SPEs. None at all. No matter how much flops it has, the SPEs have a sufficiently different memory layout that any attempt to emulate would necessarily be really, really slow.

My sources have consistently said that there will be no backcompat whatsoever. Instead, some top seller games will be ported over and available cheap/free for people who already own them on PS3. Sony will spin this as better than backcompat because they will be able to use the high-res textures and high-detail models from the PC versions.

Blu-ray, GUI, Playstation Button Overlay GUI, etc. All fall under the OS side.

None of those would actually use any significant amount of GPU power. Blu-Ray decoding will happen with dedicated circuitry, and it would really take some doing to make a button overlay gui take a tenth of a GCN CU. More importantly, because of the way AMD GPUs work, you are much better off taking all of the GPU for a very short time than you are constantly reserving some of it.

 

[NostaSeronx]

And which version of a CPU is typically the one that actually works? The 6th or 7th? If they want a 2013 launch, we are very much nearing the point where the designs have to be solid.

The first one usually works but has bugs but Excavator being taped out means Steamroller is 100% finished.

There is simply no way that a excavator would be able to emulate the SPEs. None at all. No matter how much flops it has, the SPEs have a sufficiently different memory layout that any attempt to emulate would necessarily be really, really slow.

Steamroller has the same memory layout as the SPEs.

Another similarity
http://www.ece.ncsu.edu/asic/ece733/2011/docs/ResonantClock.pdf

 

[Tuna-Fish]

The first one usually works but has bugs

In what industry? If the first one doesn't literally catch fire when you turn it on it's a win.

but Excavator being taped out means Steamroller is 100% finished.

No, it means that the initial design work is finished, and they are now creating the first masks for the chip. After the masks are done, they can get their first real chips made, which *will not work*, and won't work until they go through many months of hard debugging and validation.

Steamroller has the same memory layout as the SPEs.

What? No, it doesn't. SPEs have 256k of embedded, directly mapped 6-cycle SRAM. Steamroller has several levels of caches, with the lowest level at 4 cycles and the L2 much slower. The caches are better, however neither can be reasonably used to emulate the other.

Another similarity
http://www.ece.ncsu.edu/asic/ece733/2011/docs/ResonantClock.pdf

Which is completely, utterly insignificant for the programming models of the chips. The things are both made of transistors, are you going to use that as a similarity next?

 

[NostaSeronx]

The things are both made of transistors, are you going to use that as a similarity next?

They are both being made and produced by IBM with IBM-Sony tools. Did I forget to mention IBM is making AMD Modded Steamroller cores for Sony? AMD Bulldozer/Steamroller runs IBM Cell Broadband applications through emulation/PowerISA -> x86 better than Cell Broadband. IBM ran the benchmarks not Sony or AMD.

 

[Centauri]

For the sake of my AMD stock, I sure hope you're right Maragark.

 

[sefsefsefsef]

Llano shipped at B0, Bulldozer shipped at B2, and Trinity shipped at A1. I don't know what this means for Steamroller or Excavator, but AMD seems to not go through many revisions before shipping.

 

[inf64]

I don't know if SR will be in PS4/new xbox but AMD locked all 3 consoles with 2 of them probably having both CPU and GPU made by AMD (still not confirmed for the CPU side ). It might very well be QC Trinity chip with custom GPU.

 

[Crap Daddy]

2013 will be a very good year for AMD

Maybe... if they survive this year:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1172...w-52-week-low-amd.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

"TheStreet Ratings rates Advanced Micro Devices as a sell. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its deteriorating net income, generally high debt management risk, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself."

 

[NIGELG]

AMD needs better management.They should sell their CPU division and just do graphics.Somebody else like Apple or Amazon or Google might do better with that CPU division.

As it is AMD has done too many blunders from buying ATi to Qualcomm sale.

Who advises their directors anyway?

I'm not sure having graphics in all consoles will help AMD much.

 

[AnonymouseUser]

Maybe... if they survive this year:

http://www.thestreet.com/story/1172...w-52-week-low-amd.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO

"TheStreet Ratings rates Advanced Micro Devices as a sell. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its deteriorating net income, generally high debt management risk, disappointing return on equity, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself."

Cramer said "BUY" when AMD was at $40. I wouldn't count on TheStreet.com for investment advice...

 

[Phynaz]

Excavator has been taped out already, the first version

Link? Conference call stating this would be good.

 

[pelov]

Link? Conference call stating this would be good.

I was thinking the same thing. I haven't seen them brandishing any such thing at their recent fusion developer conference.

Their timeline would suggest that it should be taped out soon, or should have been taped out already. You'd figure that they need 6-12 months for the mask (closer to the year mark), and with the Kaveri release date following Trinity by a year, something would have to surface soon or should have surfaced already.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I was thinking the same thing. I haven't seen them brandishing any such thing at their recent fusion developer conference.

Their timeline would suggest that it should be taped out soon, or should have been taped out already. You'd figure that they need 6-12 months for the mask (closer to the year mark), and with the Kaveri release date following Trinity by a year, something would have to surface soon or should have surfaced already.

CPUs take alot longer time that GPUs due to validation. Just look at Broadwell, already there, far from release. I would say 18-24 months from first tapeout till the first product.

 

[pelov]

CPUs take alot longer time that GPUs due to validation. Just look at Broadwell, already there, far from release. I would say 18-24 months from first tapeout till the first product.

Yea, but that's assuming they've released a public statement as soon as its been taped out. Unlike GloFo, TSMC or other foundries, these 28nm chip tapeouts don't get the same attention or press release as Intel's 14nm or GloFo's 20nm ARM tapeouts.

 

[zephyrprime]

It's just not going to happen because there is no consumer market that has the power to market such a device. The mainstream consumer will never build for themselves and will not buy a niche device. Only a company with a billion dollar marketing budget could get such a machine off the ground.

 

[sm625]

Intel could make AMD go away completely by releasing a 10W haswell celeron for $67. It would be fast as any AMD