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2012 Electoral Map

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the DRIZZLE said:
I think there is a decent chance that Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election. IMO he's going to lose Pennsylvania and Florida which means he would have to win every other swing state or steal a red state to win the election.
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Meh. It's impossible to say. Polling in the swing states is a tossup right now. Depending on the GOP candidate and economic conditions it could either stay close like that or turn into a landslide for obama. I have a hard time seeing a landslide the other way, which is why I said the fundamentals favor Obama. While there is a high degree of uncertainty right now if someone were forced to place money on this election they would be foolish to select the republicans.
 
eskimospy said:
Meh. It's impossible to say. Polling in the swing states is a tossup right now. Depending on the GOP candidate and economic conditions it could either stay close like that or turn into a landslide for obama. I have a hard time seeing a landslide the other way, which is why I said the fundamentals favor Obama. While there is a high degree of uncertainty right now if someone were forced to place money on this election they would be foolish to select the republicans.
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Have you spoken to any people?

I've talked to a lot of folks in Obama's old backyard here in Chicago area and not one has said they would vote for him again and they voted for him first time around.
 
dmcowen674 said:
Have you spoken to any people?

I've talked to a lot of folks in Obama's old backyard here in Chicago area and not one has said they would vote for him again and they voted for him first time around.
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Anecdotal evidence really isn't that useful. You end up with biased samples. The most recent polling has Obama up by 21 over Romney in Illinois.
 
dmcowen674 said:
Have you spoken to any people?

I've talked to a lot of folks in Obama's old backyard here in Chicago area and not one has said they would vote for him again and they voted for him first time around.
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I talk to people in Mass. every day and I get the same response "Mitt Romney ruined Massachusetts." Both Republicans and Democrats. Kind of interesting the candidates we have running these days.

I guess you vote for whoever is the least awfuller.
 
eskimospy said:
Meh. It's impossible to say. Polling in the swing states is a tossup right now. Depending on the GOP candidate and economic conditions it could either stay close like that or turn into a landslide for obama. I have a hard time seeing a landslide the other way, which is why I said the fundamentals favor Obama. While there is a high degree of uncertainty right now if someone were forced to place money on this election they would be foolish to select the republicans.
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In the popular vote I agree with you that it is more likely that Obama wins by more than 4% than that the Republican candidate (presumably Romney) does. However, IMO when you look at it from a bottom up standpoint and go state by state I give the Republicans the edge.
 
the DRIZZLE said:
In the popular vote I agree with you that it is more likely that Obama wins by more than 4% than that the Republican candidate (presumably Romney) does. However, IMO when you look at it from a bottom up standpoint and go state by state I give the Republicans the edge.
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Why? If you look at it state by state it basically endorses what I say pretty well, specifically if you look at the two states you mentioned, Pennsylvania and Florida. RCP polling averages are both in Obama's favor (although a more recent poll in PA gave Romney a lead within the margin of error). Obama's lead in Florida is in fact larger than Romney's in Pennsylvania. Furthermore, Obama's nationwide approval ratings have been increasing over the last month or so, and it's not unreasonable to think that some fraction of that will carry over to swing states. This is why I say that things are fluid, but with the fundamentals in Obama's favor. (barring economic catastrophe of course)

Pennsylvania in particular is not the swing state it was when I was growing up there, it has become steadily more Democratic over time. (the last time it went Republican was almost 25 years ago in 1988) Once again it's quite early to say anything, but I just don't see how current information would lead you to those conclusions. They seem to be based on gut feelings, which was sort of my point to begin with. There's no hard data from which to make any map that means anything.
 
Well let me put it this way:

I'm certainly not an BHO supporter. I'm not a major detractor either - I give POTUS lots of leniency, and this one did not inherit a good situation (on different levels no less).

That said...

...if the Rep's put up some unelectable candidate either by their lack of qualification and/or f*cking insane positions on things, then I'm not voting for them either. Just because I want someone better than BHO doesn't mean it's an automatic vote for the Rep's. I hope they keep that in mind...

Chuck
 
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