2012 Electoral Map

[fskimospy]

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnoqnn0oqwn0q



My shot
I think VA will go blue again, but NM and CO might not. I gave MA to the reds in case Romney is the candidate, but even then that might not be enough. Should be a reasonably close election, and again it all comes down to FL or OH.

I sincerely doubt Romney would win Massachusetts even if he were the nominee. When Romney left the governorship his approval rating was at 34%. Furthermore, Obama won Massachusetts by 25 points. I have a really hard time imagining how a 34% approval rating governor makes up 25 points, even in his home state.

Also, why do you think Romney would carry Maine? Obama won that state by more than 17 points as well. That would also be quite a hurdle to overcome, I can't say that's very likely. New Hampshire is certainly possible, but outside of that I can't see any Republican winning a state in the Northeast, at least outside of an election he was already going to dominate anyway. (and that doesn't seem likely here)

 

[fskimospy]

With the caveat that making electoral predictions this far out is insane and incredibly likely to be wrong, here's mine:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnrznn0nrwnxq

If I were to build in a margin of error however, it would be very much in favor of Obama. If economic performance continues to improve as it has been this election will be a slaughter.

 

[Slew Foot]

Obama will easily beat Romney and Santorum would be lucky to win anything but the bible belt and some mountain states.

 

[dmcowen674]

With the caveat that making electoral predictions this far out is insane and incredibly likely to be wrong, here's mine:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnrznn0nrwnxq

If I were to build in a margin of error however, it would be very much in favor of Obama. If economic performance continues to improve as it has been this election will be a slaughter.

Why do you have

Maine blue? It just went Republican Governor

Florida blue? It is clearly a red state

Wisconsin blue? You haven't heard it went Republican and current battle?

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally Posted by dmcowen674
Where will the blue votes come from in Ohio and Florida?

The working class has been decimated and moved out of those states leaving only the rich Republicans to vote.

Florida was a Blue state in the 2008 Presidential election and most likely will be again in 2012 because the GOP doesn't have anyone that can beat Obama (and Paulbots, please don't try to claim that RP could beat him because there's not a chance in hell that would happen).

Obama won't get nearly the numbers that came out to vote this time especially since so many of those that voted for him in2008 were scattered to the winds with the job losses.

No one seems to be factoring that in for some reason.

 

[fskimospy]

Why do you have

Maine blue? It just went Republican Governor

Florida blue? It is clearly a red state

Wisconsin blue? You haven't heard it went Republican and current battle?

Why do you base presidential election outcomes on midterm election outcomes? Maybe this explains why you're always so wrong.

Didn't you learn anything from me the last time you did this?

 

[shortylickens]

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=00000000000000000

:awe:

 

[dmcowen674]

Why do you base presidential election outcomes on midterm election outcomes? Maybe this explains why you're always so wrong.

Didn't you learn anything from me the last time you did this?

Not basing it on mid terms.

Basing it on people voting party ticket.

 

[monovillage]

You know what kills me is when working class blue collar workers vote for a Republican...talk about voting against your self interests!

Which make it very obvious that you aren't a working class person or that you depend on government largesse for your paycheck. "government or union employee of one type or another"

 

[shortylickens]

Virginia used to be red state and could very easily swing that way again.

Virginia is most definitely a swing state.

 

[uclaLabrat]

I sincerely doubt Romney would win Massachusetts even if he were the nominee. When Romney left the governorship his approval rating was at 34%. Furthermore, Obama won Massachusetts by 25 points. I have a really hard time imagining how a 34% approval rating governor makes up 25 points, even in his home state.

Also, why do you think Romney would carry Maine? Obama won that state by more than 17 points as well. That would also be quite a hurdle to overcome, I can't say that's very likely. New Hampshire is certainly possible, but outside of that I can't see any Republican winning a state in the Northeast, at least outside of an election he was already going to dominate anyway. (and that doesn't seem likely here)

I was trying to keep it close. I have no barometer for ME, and I think the chance of Obama winning every state from OH and VA (save WV) to ME is just as if not more likely than the map I put up. That said, if you subscribe to the domino theory, I believe OH will flip red before FL does.

 

[fskimospy]

Not basing it on mid terms.

Basing it on people voting party ticket.

You're doing it wrong, you aren't basing it on people voting party ticket because that information isn't available. 2 of your 3 states that you questioned were due to events that happened during a midterm election. It's silliness and you are clueless as to what is going on. My prediction could very well be wrong, even wildly so, but it certainly stands a much better chance to be right than yours.

I will personally bet you $100 that Maine goes to the Democrats this year.

 

[dmcowen674]

You don't know what on earth you're talking about. Indiana traditionally votes Republican and in the last election, went to Obama. That was the first time Indiana went blue in a long, long time.

Tippecanoe and Tyler too

Indiana started the whole country divided and it wasn't even a state yet.

Why am I not surprised.

 

[TastesLikeChicken]

Originally Posted by dmcowen674
Where will the blue votes come from in Ohio and Florida?

The working class has been decimated and moved out of those states leaving only the rich Republicans to vote.




Obama won't get nearly the numbers that came out to vote this time especially since so many of those that voted for him in2008 were scattered to the winds with the job losses.

No one seems to be factoring that in for some reason.

No one seems to be factoring it in because it's a delusion of yours alone that has no bearing on reality. You continue the make the false claim that the rich are all Republicans who only vote the party line. Guess what, Dave? Obama got more of the rich vote in 2008 than McCain did.

http://brandtao.wordpress.com/2008/11/06/demographics-for-us-presidential-election-2008/

As far as job losses, you seem to be implying that only Democrats lost their jobs and somehow, magically, all Republicans maintained employment. Got any proof of that whatsoever?

Your delusional trolling about Republicans and making outlandish statements with absolutely no proof at all is getting extremely tiresome. Straighten up or some of us may feel inclined to call upon the new rules that are now in effect in this forum.

 

[jstern01]

Originally Posted by dmcowen674
Where will the blue votes come from in Ohio and Florida?

The working class has been decimated and moved out of those states leaving only the rich Republicans to vote.




Obama won't get nearly the numbers that came out to vote this time especially since so many of those that voted for him in2008 were scattered to the winds with the job losses.

No one seems to be factoring that in for some reason.

Florida will more than likely go Blue. Obama has a huge campaign network and machine in Florida. Registration for Dems is about 5% ahead of the Republicans.

http://search.dos.state.fl.us/DOE/d...bcontent\search\SearchDOEWeb\SearchDOEWeb.asp

And Independents despite what people may think, tend to support the incumbent when things are looking up, especially in Florida

 

[dmcowen674]

With the caveat that making electoral predictions this far out is insane and incredibly likely to be wrong, here's mine:
http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnrznn0nrwnxq

If I were to build in a margin of error however, it would be very much in favor of Obama. If economic performance continues to improve as it has been this election will be a slaughter.

Just a change of Vermont and Maine to Red and Republicans win with your map.

Those come in early so will know pretty quick election night how things are going.

 

[crashtestdummy]

Here's my attempt, assuming Romney wins the nomination:

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnr0nq0nqwn0q

If Santorum gets it:

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0zqnrznr0xrwn0n

Santorum will be stronger in the midwest, but will alienate the northeast.

The big question mark to me is Florida. If Romney can pull out that state, everything looks different.

 

[crashtestdummy]

Just a change of Vermont and Maine to Red and Republicans win with your map.

Those come in early so will know pretty quick election night how things are going.

I don't think you've ever been to Vermont. There are conservatives there, but they're heavily outweighed by liberals. This is the state of Bernie Sanders.

 

[fskimospy]

Just a change of Vermont and Maine to Red and Republicans win with your map.

Those come in early so will know pretty quick election night how things are going.

.....Obama won Vermont by THIRTY SEVEN POINTS. All we need is a 40 point electoral swing and we're golden, right? What is wrong with your brain? Even if Vermont were to flip red by some act of god, it would be literally one of the final states in the US to do so, including ones in the Northeast that would close at the same time.

You have this bizarre persecution complex where you blame Republicans for all the evils in the world but simultaneously desperately wish for them to be successful in order to justify how you're so terribly picked on. It's pathetic.

Maybe you should take a minute and try to figure out why it is that you act this way.

 

[dmcowen674]

.....Obama won Vermont by THIRTY SEVEN POINTS. All we need is a 40 point electoral swing and we're golden, right? What is wrong with your brain? Even if Vermont were to flip red by some act of god, it would be literally one of the final states in the US to do so, including ones in the Northeast that would close at the same time.

You have this bizarre persecution complex where you blame Republicans for all the evils in the world but simultaneously desperately wish for them to be successful in order to justify how you're so terribly picked on. It's pathetic.

Maybe you should take a minute and try to figure out why it is that you act this way.

I based VT going red by NH going red.

They seem to vote like each other. Do they not?

 

[crashtestdummy]

I based VT going red by NH going red.

They seem to vote like each other. Do they not?

Not in the least.

 

[Anarchist420]

My map o' predictions outlines a narrow Republican win although it's kind of silly since we don't know who the nominee will be. I picked mainly based upon who controls each State legislature. That doesn't mean the Republicans won't lose their 2010 gains however.

WV still red (they just don't like black people there).

I made WI red and MI blue even though I think MI could go either way.

I made IN red.

Virginia red as in 2004.

I made DE red (I think it was blue last time)

I didn't pick for CT and MA.

NC was the only State I made blue in the South.

I didn't take into consideration if there would be any independents either. That could change the outcome.

 

[fskimospy]

My map o' predictions outlines a narrow Republican win although it's kind of silly since we don't know who the nominee will be. I picked mainly based upon who controls each State legislature. That doesn't mean the Republicans won't lose their 2010 gains however.

WV still red (they just don't like black people there).

I made WI red and MI blue even though I think MI could go either way.

I made IN red.

Virginia red as in 2004.

I made DE red (I think it was blue last time)

I didn't pick for CT and MA.

NC was the only State I made blue in the South.

I didn't take into consideration if there would be any independents either. That could change the outcome.

You picked a state that went for Obama by 25 points to go red? Why?

 

[dmcowen674]

I don't think you've ever been to Vermont. There are conservatives there, but they're heavily outweighed by liberals. This is the state of Bernie Sanders.

I visited there as a kid.

All I remember is Montpelier and maple syrup.

Wikipedia disagrees with you

While some previous elections from 1992 on went blue the state is traditionally red and looks to be returning to red.

Basically looks to be confused people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont

Historically, Vermont was considered one of the most reliably Republican states in the country in terms of national elections.

In 1992, it supported a Democrat for president, the first time the state had done so since 1964, and has voted Democratic in every presidential election since.



Vermont gave John Kerry his fourth-largest margin of victory in 2004. He won the state's popular vote by 20 percentage points over incumbent George W. Bush, taking almost 59 percent of the vote. Essex County in the state's northeastern section was the only county to vote for Bush. Vermont is the only state that did not receive a visit from George W. Bush when he was President of the United States. In the 2000 Presidential Elections, Bush was the first Republican in American history to win the White House without carrying Vermont.[202] Vermont gave Barack Obama his third largest winning margin (37 percentage points) winning there 68–31 percent. On the other hand, Republican Governor Douglas won all counties but Windham in the 2006 election.

Today, Vermont is one of only two states represented by a member of the United States Congress who does not currently associate with a political party: Senator Bernie Sanders describes his political views as democratic socialist, but is officially registered as an independent and caucuses with the Democrats in the selection of the Senate leadership.

 

[Born2bwire]

Are we going through this again? Hell, Dave, you had McCain winning the last election, including Hawaii of all places.

Shouldn't we at least wait until we actually know who the candidates will be? The Democrats are not campaigning very much right now and most of the Republicans are still trying to sort out the primaries. Any poll data of late will be focusing on the Republican primaries.