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2012 Electoral Map

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dmcowen674 said:
I visited there as a kid.

All I remember is Montpelier and maple syrup.

Wikipedia disagrees with you

While some previous elections from 1992 on went blue the state is traditionally red and looks to be returning to red.

Basically looks to be confused people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vermont

Historically, Vermont was considered one of the most reliably Republican states in the country in terms of national elections.

In 1992, it supported a Democrat for president, the first time the state had done so since 1964, and has voted Democratic in every presidential election since.



Vermont gave John Kerry his fourth-largest margin of victory in 2004. He won the state's popular vote by 20 percentage points over incumbent George W. Bush, taking almost 59 percent of the vote. Essex County in the state's northeastern section was the only county to vote for Bush. Vermont is the only state that did not receive a visit from George W. Bush when he was President of the United States. In the 2000 Presidential Elections, Bush was the first Republican in American history to win the White House without carrying Vermont.[202] Vermont gave Barack Obama his third largest winning margin (37 percentage points) winning there 68–31 percent. On the other hand, Republican Governor Douglas won all counties but Windham in the 2006 election.

Today, Vermont is one of only two states represented by a member of the United States Congress who does not currently associate with a political party: Senator Bernie Sanders describes his political views as democratic socialist, but is officially registered as an independent and caucuses with the Democrats in the selection of the Senate leadership.
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So you're trying to tell me that because 20+ years ago Vermont was a Republican state it's going to be again, despite 5 presidential elections of evidence clearly stating that it's one of the most reliable blue states now? That's like saying that parachute pants are still in style because MC Hammer liked them. I don't get it.

Look at the senators from Vermont, Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders. I think it's safe to say they're both to the left of Obama. Their Governor was the first Governor to perform a same-sex marriage ceremony. Vermont is moving towards a single payer health system. What more do you want?
 
crashtestdummy said:
So you're trying to tell me that because 20+ years ago Vermont was a Republican state it's going to be again, despite 5 presidential elections of evidence clearly stating that it's one of the most reliable blue states now? That's like saying that parachute pants are still in style because MC Hammer liked them. I don't get it.

Look at the senators from Vermont, Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders. I think it's safe to say they're both to the left of Obama. Their Governor was the first Governor to perform a same-sex marriage ceremony. Vermont is moving towards a single payer health system. What more do you want?
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So lets says VT blue

Why did you say Florida will go blue?

So many of the working class have had to move out of the state duet to lack of jobs and they voted Dem leaving just the Republicans to vote in the majority.
 
dmcowen674 said:
So lets says VT blue

Why did you say Florida will go blue?

So many of the working class have had to move out of the state duet to lack of jobs and they voted Dem leaving just the Republicans to vote in the majority.
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You just keep jumping from state to state pulling stuff out of your ass, asking people to explain away baseless predictions from you.

Stop acting like an idiot.
 
dmcowen674 said:
So lets says VT blue

Why did you say Florida will go blue?

So many of the working class have had to move out of the state duet to lack of jobs and they voted Dem leaving just the Republicans to vote in the majority.
Click to expand...

Recent polling has leaned slightly to Obama despite (or perhaps because of) the recent primary. I have the feeling, though, that Obama's campaign will play up immigration issues there to bring out the Latino vote. I could see the state going either way. Same with Ohio and PA (I feel like much of the campaign would come down to those three, with Romney needing a sweep to win).
 
crashtestdummy said:
Recent polling has leaned slightly to Obama despite (or perhaps because of) the recent primary. I have the feeling, though, that Obama's campaign will play up immigration issues there to bring out the Latino vote. I could see the state going either way. Same with Ohio and PA (I feel like much of the campaign would come down to those three, with Romney needing a sweep to win).
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Oh your in Florida.

You see a lot of Latino recruitment? Interesting.

Will it be enough to make up for all those that have lost jobs? Hmmmm

Can't see Ohio or PA suddenly changing.

They been pretty solid red especially Ohio with all the jobs lost.
 
dmcowen674 said:
Oh your in Florida.

You see a lot of Latino recruitment? Interesting.

Will it be enough to make up for all those that have lost jobs? Hmmmm

Can't see Ohio or PA suddenly changing.

They been pretty solid red especially Ohio with all the jobs lost.
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I'm not in Florida, sorry for any misrepresentation. I'm in the northeast. I wouldn't be so sure about Ohio and Pennsylvania, though. Polling for both have been mostly leaning to Obama.
 
dmcowen674 said:
There are many Electoral Map predictor pages.

I chose this one at random

http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php


Here is my 2012 map with a dead heat but the Republican wins just like Bush did.

http://electoralmap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0wqnr0nr0nrwn0n


Edit: 2-20-12 Revision 280 Republican
Based on states like Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont I did not realize had turned Red.
Sad 🙁

Lets see your prediction and we'll see who was right this November.
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Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking phone. Wisconsin a red state? Are you kidding me? Why is it that these political pundit know-it-all's always want to say Wisconsin is a swing state? It isn't. It is a solid blue state. You would have to go way back far to find a Republican presidential candidate who won Wisconsin in the general election. You really think that after all of Scott Walker's shenanigans that Wisconsin is going to vote for a Republican presidential candidate when it hasn't done so in how long? Are you fucking kidding me?
 
xBiffx said:
Agreed.

Anyways, here is my prediction.

http://ElectoralMap.net/2012/myPrediction.php?d=qo0wqnr0nq0nrwnxw

Florida seems to be my only what if. If blue, then Obama, if red, then what if.
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That's one reason why I see the possibility of Senator Marco Rubio being drafted as a Vice-Presidential candidate. Yes, I know he doesn't want it, that's why I said drafted.
It may make the difference in Florida and possibly have an impact in several other toss-up states. New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado
 
TalonStrike said:
Whoa whoa whoa whoa. Hold the fucking phone. Wisconsin a red state? Are you kidding me? Why is it that these political pundit know-it-all's always want to say Wisconsin is a swing state? It isn't. It is a solid blue state. You would have to go way back far to find a Republican presidential candidate who won Wisconsin in the general election. You really think that after all of Scott Walker's shenanigans that Wisconsin is going to vote for a Republican presidential candidate when it hasn't done so in how long? Are you fucking kidding me?
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People's electoral maps will correspond pretty much exactly to their desired outcome at this point because it's all based on basically nothing.

The electoral trends clearly favor Obama at this point, he's by any reasonable measure the favorite to win. That being said, there's a lot of time between now and November and so being the favorite doesn't go very far.
 
eskimospy said:
People's electoral maps will correspond pretty much exactly to their desired outcome at this point because it's all based on basically nothing.

The electoral trends clearly favor Obama at this point, he's by any reasonable measure the favorite to win. That being said, there's a lot of time between now and November and so being the favorite doesn't go very far.
Click to expand...

I think there is a decent chance that Obama wins the popular vote but loses the election. IMO he's going to lose Pennsylvania and Florida which means he would have to win every other swing state or steal a red state to win the election.
 
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