2011's Global Cooling

[Jaskalas]

I am posting to show you the awesome power of this planet’s oceans and the effect they have using a collection of the empirical evidence we have at hand. The Pacific Decadal Osculation (PDO) shifted cold last decade and the effects are beginning to be felt. Global Warming is being countered.

How long this will last, and to what effect I do not know. Theory goes that man-made global warming does not exist and cyclical effects dominate our weather and climate. A cold PDO suggests cooling over 20 - 30 years. Of course it will not be linear and it will have both its ups and downs. The transition from 2010 to 2011 shows how quickly things can change.

I look forward to seeing where this will take us by 2020 and if nothing significant presents itself throughout this decade, then all the counter arguments to Global Warming must be reconsidered if not taken off the table. In short, these sorts of things will determine the strength of the arguments for both sides.

With last decade’s flat trend, it’ll be interesting to see where this one takes us.

First, I’d like to point out the flip in the pacific as shown by ESNO.

I will now enter the following evidence for the recent cooling of 2011.

Global Temperature:
After 2010’s ‘warmest year ever’ we have seen the global temperature dip below average in 2011, a rather healthy rebound.

Sea Level:
A steady rise in sea level has been halted. We are now below 2004 levels.

Western snow pack:
Record breaking snow pack in the western mountains. Much of it 200-300% above average.

Tornadoes:
2011's violent tornadoes are contrary to the warming trend of fewer violent tornadoes.

United States May Temperature:
Below average.

Surrounding Water Temperature:
Also below average.

In conclusion, warmth is not causing our current weather in 2011. Cold is causing it as displayed by the global temp’s fall, the sea level’s fall, the record snow, tornadoes, and current US air and water temps.

This all happens to coincide with a cold shift in the PDO.

The question is, where do we go from here? Certainly temperatures and weather will rebound back to the warm side, but after a series of strong winters there is no need to doubt that the winters of 09, 10, and 11 are a sign of things to come.

It brings to light the greater question, is the climate beginning to cool after the past 30 years? Too early to tell, but this year is off to a great start and this decade will tell the tale.

 

[Atreus21]

I am posting to show you the awesome power of this planet’s oceans and the effect they have using a collection of the empirical evidence we have at hand. The Pacific Decadal Osculation (PDO) shifted cold last decade and the effects are beginning to be felt. Global Warming is being countered.

How long this will last, and to what effect I do not know. Theory goes that man-made global warming does not exist and cyclical effects dominate our weather and climate. A cold PDO suggests cooling over 20 - 30 years. Of course it will not be linear and it will have both its ups and downs. The transition from 2010 to 2011 shows how quickly things can change.

I look forward to seeing where this will take us by 2020 and if nothing significant presents itself throughout this decade, then all the counter arguments to Global Warming must be reconsidered if not taken off the table. In short, these sorts of things will determine the strength of the arguments for both sides.

With last decade’s flat trend, it’ll be interesting to see where this one takes us.

First, I’d like to point out the flip in the pacific as shown by ESNO.

I will now enter the following evidence for the recent cooling of 2011.

Global Temperature:
After 2010’s ‘warmest year ever’ we have seen the global temperature dip below average in 2011, a rather healthy rebound.

Sea Level:
A steady rise in sea level has been halted. We are now below 2004 levels.

Western snow pack:
Record breaking snow pack in the western mountains. Much of it 200-300% above average.

Tornadoes:
2011's violent tornadoes are contrary to the warming trend of fewer violent tornadoes.

United States May Temperature:
Below average.

Surrounding Water Temperature:
Also below average.

In conclusion, warmth is not causing our current weather in 2011. Cold is causing it as displayed by the global temp’s fall, the sea level’s fall, the record snow, tornadoes, and current US air and water temps.

This all happens to coincide with a cold shift in the PDO.

The question is, where do we go from here? Certainly temperatures and weather will rebound back to the warm side, but after a series of strong winters there is no need to doubt that the winters of 09, 10, and 11 are a sign of things to come.

It brings to light the greater question, is the climate beginning to cool after the past 30 years? Too early to tell, but this year is off to a great start and this decade will tell the tale.

Where do we go from here? Absolutely friggin nowhere. Can't control this stuff.

 

[Ape]

Global Warming, Global Cooling, Climate Change, nature does what it wants no matter how much crap fear monger's like Gore say. HE and others try to blame man we are just a tiny part in all of this and in reality we are no where near as involved in this as some will make us think.

 

[Throckmorton]

This is exactly like the dumbasses who say "But it's winter, how can there be global warming herp derp!"

 

[Ape]

This is exactly like the dumbasses who say "But it's winter, how can there be global warming herp derp!"

What specifically is like the dumbasses?

 

[Throckmorton]

What specifically is like the dumbasses?

Claiming that a cold year means there's no global warming.



If you add insulation to your house, but one day you freeze to death, does that mean insulating your house didn't work? No... it means that other factors lead your house cooling more.

 

[Ape]

Claiming that a cold year means there's no global warming.



If you add insulation to your house, but one day you freeze to death, does that mean insulating your house didn't work? No... it means that other factors lead your house cooling more.

You mean climate shift correct?

 

[p0nd]

Claiming that a cold year means there's no global warming.



If you add insulation to your house, but one day you freeze to death, does that mean insulating your house didn't work? No... it means that other factors lead your house cooling more.

You don't understand, clearly. 2010 tied for the hottest year on record. If 2011 isn't hotter, then obviously global warming is a lie and Al Gore is stealing our money.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

I'd laugh at all the MMGW believers if they weren't so arrogantly stupid. ...ok, maybe I will

 

[sMiLeYz]

There was a breeze today when I left my house, Al Gore lied.

 

[Throckmorton]

I'd laugh at all the MMGW believers if they weren't so arrogantly stupid. ...ok, maybe I will

The funny thing is you and the other deniers are too stupid to understand some relatively simple concepts.... Global average temperatures, and trends.

You also don't seem to understand thermodynamics.

 

[Paratus]

I'd laugh at all the MMGW believers if they weren't so arrogantly stupid. ...ok, maybe I will

We measure the solar flux that intersects the Earth.

We measure the amount that is re-radiated back into space.

There is an approximatley 1 W/m^2 difference between the two.

Thermodynamics says the Earth will warm until it's in equilibrium.

The excess energy will drive the climate.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

 

[jhbball]

charts.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

We measure the solar flux that intersects the Earth.

We measure the amount that is re-radiated back into space.

There is an approximatley 1 W/m^2 difference between the two.

Thermodynamics says the Earth will warm until it's in equilibrium.

The excess energy will drive the climate.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

Assuming these are all correct - none. Please re-read my post.

 

[Paratus]

@Jaskalas

Do you drink beer?

 

[CADsortaGUY]

The funny thing is you and the other deniers are too stupid to understand some relatively simple concepts.... Global average temperatures, and trends.

You also don't seem to understand thermodynamics.

You don't seem to be able to read. I am not a denier, I know the climate changes.

<-laughing once again

 

[Portly Penguin]

Global Warming, Global Cooling, Climate Change, nature does what it wants no matter how much crap fear monger's like Gore say. HE and others try to blame man we are just a tiny part in all of this and in reality we are no where near as involved in this as some will make us think.

What a nuanced and well educated opinion

 

[Paratus]

Assuming these are all correct - none. Please re-read my post.

So we agree on "climate change"
On to the man made part.

We do not affect the input of solar flux obviously, but the suns output has not fluxuated much while we've been measure anyway.

The change is driven by the amount of incident solar flux reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere.

We measure the amount of gases in the atmosphere.

We've measured the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to be increasing.

We have measure4 in the laboratory that CO2 absorbs infrared solar energy.

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere leads to more absorbed energy which is reflected in our measurement of the difference in amount of energy the Earth receives versus what it radiates.

We measured man-made production of CO2 to be the increase of CO2 measured in the atmosphere.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

 

[Ape]

The funny thing is you and the other deniers are too stupid to understand some relatively simple concepts.... Global average temperatures, and trends.

You also don't seem to understand thermodynamics.

Care to educate us on thermodynamics? I for one would love to know more.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

So we agree on "climate change"
On to the man made part.

We do not affect the input of solar flux obviously, but the suns output has not fluxuated much while we've been measure anyway.

The change is driven by the amount of incident solar flux reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere.

We measure the amount of gases in the atmosphere.

We've measured the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere to be increasing.

We have measure4 in the laboratory that CO2 absorbs infrared solar energy.

Increasing CO2 in the atmosphere leads to more absorbed energy which is reflected in our measurement of the difference in amount of energy the Earth receives versus what it radiates.

We measured man-made production of CO2 to be the increase of CO2 measured in the atmosphere.

Which of these facts do you dispute?

So in the mind of a believer - we are the reason for the change, and not normal shifts? Pretty arrogant species - no?
How does one explain previous shifts?
How does one know what "normal" is? Who gets to set it.

 

[Jaskalas]

This is exactly like the dumbasses who say "But it's winter, how can there be global warming herp derp!"

This is to those dumbasses who say this year's weather is due to warming.

 

[p0nd]

So in the mind of a believer - we are the reason for the change, and not normal shifts? Pretty arrogant species - no?
How does one explain previous shifts?

It's so tricky because there are seasonal, decadal, multi-decadal, and even longer oscillations in natural climate.
Some of the strongest most relevant climate forcings are probably from changes in the shape of Earth's orbit and axial tilt, called Milankovitch cycles. Currently these are thought to drive the glaciation during the current Ice Ace, though the theory isn't without its problems as described on wiki. Despite the mismatch of some models with the data, it's generally accepted that these cycles are very important for determining long term climate patterns, and affect how much sunlight the Earth gets more than the sun's output itself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

For more massive, very long term, previous shifts in climate, the positioning of continents is very important as they determine the direction of ocean currents. As a brief example, when Antarctica was still connected to South America, it was much warmer because warm ocean water could make its way along the coast. When the two split, the current changed into the one that exists today, which is that of cold water circling the continent. Following the split, Antarctica became covered with near permanent ice.

How does one know what "normal" is? Who gets to set it.

This is a good question. Since we live during an interglacial of the Quaternary Ice Ages, the best "baselines" we have are the previous interglacial periods of the last 2 to 3 million years. The most recent interglacial besides the current one, the Holocene, is the Eemian:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian_interglacial

Normal could be considered how the natural climate shifts behaved during these times. What needs to be considered is that changes in Earth's orbit, tectonics, air and ocean currents will not be the same now as they were during one of these other periods. The difficulty is isolating and measuring the man made effects alongside all the natural variations.

 

[Paul98]

So in the mind of a believer - we are the reason for the change, and not normal shifts? Pretty arrogant species - no?
How does one explain previous shifts?
How does one know what "normal" is? Who gets to set it.

Yes we are obviously the reason for the change. From everything we have looked at man is a big driver in the current climate change.

It doesn't, no one is saying that the climate didn't change before, we know it has and changes constantly. But this isn't an argument again MMGW. We just need to look at other causes for the other shifts in climate. Such as volcanic eruptions, meteor impact, natural cycles, sun output, wobble of the earth, movement of continents,.... There are tons of things that can cause the climate to change. Some minor others major.

So you are wondering if the current change is "normal"? And your argument is that what we are experiencing now is normal, and we would have the planet would have the exact same rise in temperature if we weren't here?

 

[Paratus]

So in the mind of a believer - we are the reason for the change, and not normal shifts? Pretty arrogant species - no?
How does one explain previous shifts?
How does one know what "normal" is? Who gets to set it.

Since you didn't answer I'll assume you don't actually dispute what I said.

Normal is what "we" want it to be. Which is the weather patterns that have driven the location of our cities and farms.

Tell me if you were a farming conglomerate or insurance company would you be concerned by what I posted above?

 

[Throckmorton]

You don't seem to be able to read. I am not a denier, I know the climate changes.

<-laughing once again

Apparently I have to spell it out for you, because you fail to understand despite the number of times this has been posted.

There has been a warming trend since we started burning large quantities of fossil fuel and turning ecosystems into farmland.

That warming trend matches the amount of greenhouse gases we have put into the air.

The trend does not match the output of the sun, or any other factor.

By definition, if you increase greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, you increase heat retention.

Increased heat retention leads to warming, to a new equilibrium point where outgoing radiation matches incoming radiation.

That equilibrium point is at a higher temperature than what we started with.