Zen hasn't taped out yet

[Arachnotronic]

And here you are lying because i stated that the perf/Watt improvement was about 13.5% but that the transistors performance was hugely degraded and compensated by the layout and input capacitances at the rate of 0.6 as published by Intel, 0.60/0.835 = 0.71, that s the loss in conductance of the transistors from 22nm to 14nm..

So you are saying that 14nm transistor performance regressed from 22nm but that BDW was 13.5% more efficient thanks to architectural/design enhancements?

Next time keep your facts straight as you are caught in blatantly deffamatory claims wich are obvious lies, check my post history about the numbers above if you want, you would be hard pressed to sustain your dishonnests statements, a practice that indeed do not surprise me at all coming from you...

If I am wrong, then I apologize, but it seems as though you are claiming that 14nm transistor performance regressed from 22nm.

 

[AtenRa]

Very expensive? Yes the top of the line is, but 5820k is 380ish right now. Are you saying 8 core Zen is going to be "much cheaper" than that? (I am expecting 8 core Zen to compete with 6 core BW-E, especially at 95W TDP.) And with the rumored 10 core BW-E, we might even see the 8 core at 5-6 hundred dollars.

Im talking about the platform (Motherboard + 4x Memory sticks + CPUs + Heat-sinks).

1. Socket 2011-V3 motherboards are more expensive than Mainstream Socket 1151 boards.

2. In order to get the benefit of the quad memory channel you need double the ram capacity and double the price. That means 4x 4GB vs 2x 4GB since 4GB sticks are the smallest of DDR-4.
But even if you want the same 16GB DDR-4 capacity 2x 8GB sticks are $20-30 cheaper than 4x 4GB.

3. Socket 2011-V3 CPUs are 140W TDP and come without heat-sinks. So the vast majority of users will also need to spend an extra $40-50 or more for an after market heat-sink, unless they have one that is socket 2011-V3 compatible.

So lets see,

1. AM4 motherboards will be cheaper than 2011-V3 since all AM4 CPUs/APUs are SoCs and an extra chipset for the motherboard is not mandatory. Motherboard PCB and BOM will be cheaper due to the dual memory channel, the absent of Chipset (in entry models) and the 95W TDP CPUs/APUs.

2. Dual memory sticks are cheaper than 4x. Also they use lower power.

3. ZEN HEDT CPU die size will be smaller than the Intel 10x Core CPU die. So at the same core count up to 8X Cores, the AMD ZEN CPUs will be cheaper than the Intel CPUs, but slower at the same core count.

At the end, we may be able to get a 8x Core ZEN HEDT Platform (CPU + Motherboard + Memory) that will be faster than the 6x Core Intel at lower price without AMD sacrificing its margins.

 

[Arachnotronic]

1. AM4 motherboards will be cheaper than 2011-V3 since all AM4 CPUs/APUs are SoCs and an extra chipset for the motherboard is not mandatory. Motherboard PCB and BOM will be cheaper due to the dual memory channel, the absent of Chipset (in entry models) and the 95W TDP CPUs/APUs.

Wrong. AM4 boards will include the Promontory chipset. The APUs have minimal PC I/O capability (1x USB 2/3, 1x SATA), so for anything but a cheap laptop the PCH -- designed by ASMedia -- will be required.

http://wccftech.com/amd-bristol-ridge-excavator-architecture-slides/

2. Dual memory sticks are cheaper than 4x. Also they use lower power.

2x8GB DDR4 2666 for $110 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...233834&cm_re=ddr4_16gb-_-20-233-834-_-Product

4x4GB DDR4 2666 for $105 http://www.newegg.com/Product/Produ...233698&cm_re=ddr4_16gb-_-20-233-698-_-Product

Not really seeing the price disadvantage to quad channel.

3. ZEN HEDT CPU die size will be smaller than the Intel 10x Core CPU die. So at the same core count up to 8X Cores, the AMD ZEN CPUs will be cheaper than the Intel CPUs, but slower at the same core count.

Smaller die sure, but you are forgetting that AMD has to pay GloFo margins. Also, given that GloFo's yields were so bad that they missed out on the A9 orders altogether, I don't have a lot of confidence in their ability to yield something like a high performance 8 core CPU at great rates, even a year from now.

Intel is having its own 14nm yield problems now (no 6700K availability in the US), but I would expect by the time 8 core Zen rolls out, Intel's yields will be superior. And, of course, Intel doesn't have to pay external margins for the parts.

At the end, we may be able to get a 8x Core ZEN HEDT Platform (CPU + Motherboard + Memory) that will be faster than the 6x Core Intel at lower price without AMD sacrificing its margins.

You know nothing about how the Zen CPU cores will be clocked (just the +40% IPC statement from AMD) so how can you come to this conclusion? Also, for these chips overclocking headroom is important. If the Zen chips clock fairly low and don't have much OC'ing headroom while the six core Intel chips offer as good if not better perf/MHz and clock way higher, then the six core Intel will still be arguably the better choice for games.

 

[Sweepr]

At the end, we may be able to get a 8x Core ZEN HEDT Platform (CPU + Motherboard + Memory) that will be faster than the 6x Core Intel

Citation needed.

at lower price

#2

without AMD sacrificing its margins.

#3

You know nothing about how the Zen CPU cores will be clocked (just the +40% IPC statement from AMD) so how can you come to this conclusion? Also, for these chips overclocking headroom is important. If the Zen chips clock fairly low and don't have much OC'ing headroom while the six core Intel chips offer as good if not better perf/MHz and clock way higher, then the six core Intel will still be arguably the better choice for games.

Agreed. Adding to this, we know nothing about Broadwel-E/EP dies (config) yet. Haswell-E/EP had three different dies, I'm willing to bet the lowest core count version of the new 14nm server chips will be fairly small.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Agreed. Adding to this, we know nothing about Broadwel-E/EP dies (config) yet. Haswell-E/EP had three different dies, I'm willing to bet the lowest core count version of the new 14nm server chips will be fairly small.

I wonder if it makes sense for Intel to do four different dies this time around; 8/12/18/24?

 

[AtenRa]

AM4 entry boards will be much cheaper than Socket 2011-V3 entry boards, no matter if they have a chipset or not. AM4 boards have way lower BOM than Socket 2011-V3, reasons explained above.

OK 2x 8GB vs 4x 4GB is more like $10, but if you go for 2x4 vs 4x4 you get almost double the price.

Intel pay the R&D for its fabs through selling its CPUs at a higher margin, AMD doesnt spend 10B (or more) for the fabs and so they dont have to sell its CPUs at that high margins. So even if you count CloFos margins, AMD will still get a high profit selling at lower margins than Intel.

The above was a scenario to explain why I believe ZEN will not directly compete against Intels HEDT platform IF ZEN CPU cores are small at the size of 4-5mm2 mentioned by Dresdenboy.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Intel pay the R&D for its fabs through selling its CPUs at a higher margin, AMD doesnt spend 10B (or more) for the fabs and so they dont have to sell its CPUs at that high margins. So even if you count CloFos margins, AMD will still get a high profit selling at lower margins than Intel.

That's just pure bollocks. And it shows in AMDs financials.

And we have to see if Zen can even compete with LGA1151.

 

[AtenRa]

That's just pure bollocks.

Yea, Intel pays the R&D from thin air.

 

[mahoshojo]

Personally I dont see AM4 ZEN directly competing against Intel HEDT platform. I believe what AMD is trying to do is cover the space between Intel mainstream CPUs (Socket 1151) and HEDT CPUs (Socket 2011-V3).

People that want the best APU (iGPU perf) at the best perf/$ will go for a up to Quad Core ZEN AM4 APU.
Those that want more cores/Threads than what Intel S Series (Socket 1151 and future) will offer, will opt for the iGPU-less ZEN up to 8x Cores 16x Threads.

edit: Im only talking about Desktop Socket AM4.

AMD's plan for 8 core Zen is just one MCM with 2 4core zen dies.
4 core chip die size shouldn't be more than 150mm^2.
Price target was around 7850k.

 

[Boze]

270TB Storage server though? Omg....
My little 37TB server.... It's so full and I doubt I even have the same quality rips as you. Jesus.... that's massive, how much is on there?

My Kodi Library Stats are 1700 Movies ~23,000 Episodes of TV. I can't even imagine how much that could be.....

Around 220 TiB, raidz3 ZFS. I have 1200 movies, and over 200 series, so I still have plenty of room thankfully. The movies average 20 to 45 GiB each, as they're all straight rips with commentaries, extras, subtitles, foreign language surround sound, etc. The television series are pretty standard, as a 22 episode season is around 200 GiB, but I have a lot of shows that are only 13 episodes, or 10 episodes like Game of Thrones.

I believe the movies make up around 45 terabytes and the series make up around 40 terabytes. Somewhere in that neighborhood. I still have a load of storage, which is why I say that I fully believe this will last me another five years.

My original storage server, which was around 76 TiB, 96 TB raw (16 x 6 TB), held all the Blu-rays I had bought since around 2007 until now. So you figure that's 8 years worth of movies and series, and I'm still sitting on around 140 TiB.

My girlfriend jokes that after we get married and have kids, I'll put the storage server in my will for my grandkids, lol...

 

[bystander36]

OK 2x 8GB vs 4x 4GB is more like $10, but if you go for 2x4 vs 4x4 you get almost double the price.

You getting double the RAM too...I'm not seeing your point.

 

[Arachnotronic]

AMD's plan for 8 core Zen is just one MCM with 2 4core zen dies.
4 core chip die size shouldn't be more than 150mm^2.
Price target was around 7850k.

How do you know this?

 

[fourdegrees11]

You getting double the RAM too...I'm not seeing your point.

One platform requires you to spend twice as much on ram?

 

[Arachnotronic]

One platform requires you to spend twice as much on ram?

What are you going on about? I showed that 4x4GB costs less than 2x8GB of RAM.

 

[bystander36]

One platform requires you to spend twice as much on ram?

One requires you to go (actually, there is no requirement) with what almost anyone with an HEDT system would get anyway. Who squeaks by with 8Gb with an x99 system?

EDIT: I forgot to mention that while the x99 platform allows quad memory, you can run it in dual or triple memory mode. There is no reason you have to by 4x4Gb, you can by 2x4Gb or 3x4Gb DDR4 as well.

 

[Dresdenboy]

1) Do you think these assumptions are reasonable?

2) How do these numbers stack up against 14nm Broadwell?

1) Without the final product I can only speculate, but base that on the patch, process data, Intel's big core study, cat core FPU, market opportunities, cost, etc. It should make sense at least.

2) BDW is ~1/8 smaller than SKL, which likely would mean less static power (which also depends on design style, and amounts of different types of transistors being used). At 6.9 sqmm it might still be bigger than Zen.

 

[AtenRa]

You getting double the RAM too...I'm not seeing your point.

The point is that in socket 2011-V3 you need to spend more (~double the ram price) for the Quad Channel performance vs the Dual memory for Socket 1151 and AM4.
Thus the platform price is higher for the Socket 2011-V3 than Socket 1151/AM4.

 

[Boze]

You guys are talking about Zen competing with Intel's HEDT line, so I assume you're talking about <Architecture>-E series processors.

Yet, we have commentators here saying that Zen is "trying to find a space between Intel's mainstream line and HEDT". Okay, so which is it?

The only way to do that from a pricing perspective is to aim for the $299-$349 area with appropriate performance. Skylake i7-6700 is $325 - 350 right now. The K version hovers around $399-$419. Those numbers will come back down to reality once yields improve and catch up with demand. I expect to see i7-6700K at $329.99 in around 4-6 months. If it doesn't hit that point, then no one has any reason to ever purchase it, because you can just get a Broadwell-E for $390 and get 2 extra cores and probably similar or better performance.

So if Zen is aiming between these two products, the only price range there is $300 to $350. This isn't a compelling place to be in my mind... but maybe I'm wrong.

 

[Arachnotronic]

The point is that in socket 2011-V3 you need to spend more (~double the ram price) for the Quad Channel performance vs the Dual memory for Socket 1151 and AM4.
Thus the platform price is higher for the Socket 2011-V3 than Socket 1151/AM4.

But you don't have to. You just buy four sticks of lower capacity RAM.

 

[Arachnotronic]

You guys are talking about Zen competing with Intel's HEDT line, so I assume you're talking about <Architecture>-E series processors.

Yet, we have commentators here saying that Zen is "trying to find a space between Intel's mainstream line and HEDT". Okay, so which is it?

The only way to do that from a pricing perspective is to aim for the $299-$349 area with appropriate performance. Skylake i7-6700 is $325 - 350 right now. The K version hovers around $399-$419. Those numbers will come back down to reality once yields improve and catch up with demand. I expect to see i7-6700K at $329.99 in around 4-6 months. If it doesn't hit that point, then no one has any reason to ever purchase it, because you can just get a Broadwell-E for $390 and get 2 extra cores and probably similar or better performance.

So if Zen is aiming between these two products, the only price range there is $300 to $350. This isn't a compelling place to be in my mind... but maybe I'm wrong.

If Intel can't get its yields up on 6700K by the time BDW-E launches, then expect big BDW-E shortages too

 

[bystander36]

The point is that in socket 2011-V3 you need to spend more (~double the ram price) for the Quad Channel performance vs the Dual memory for Socket 1151 and AM4.
Thus the platform price is higher for the Socket 2011-V3 than Socket 1151/AM4.

Did you know that x99 systems can use dual channel, triple channel and quad channel DDR4? You are not required to buy quad channel memory.

 

[AtenRa]

What are you going on about? I showed that 4x4GB costs less than 2x8GB of RAM.

Perhaps at 2666MHz, at 2400MHz 2x 8GB is cheaper than 4x 4GB.

 

[Maxima1]

The point is that in socket 2011-V3 you need to spend more (~double the ram price) for the Quad Channel performance vs the Dual memory for Socket 1151 and AM4.
Thus the platform price is higher for the Socket 2011-V3 than Socket 1151/AM4.

Why settle just for 8GB on desktop? And quad channel doesn't have to run in quad mode anyways.

 

[fourdegrees11]

What are you going on about? I showed that 4x4GB costs less than 2x8GB of RAM.

So how much does 2x4gb cost for the platform that doesnt require quad? Can you buy cheaper then 4x4gb for the quad platform?

If you dont need 16gb of ram you can spend half as much...

 

[AtenRa]

Did you know that x99 systems can use dual channel, triple channel and quad channel DDR4? You are not required to buy quad channel memory.

ehm read more carefully

The point is that in socket 2011-V3 you need to spend more (~double the ram price) for the Quad Channel performance vs the Dual memory for Socket 1151 and AM4.
Thus the platform price is higher for the Socket 2011-V3 than Socket 1151/AM4.

I said that in order to get the extra quad channel performance that the 2011-V3 platform offers, you need to spend double the price for the Memory. Nobody said you cannot use dual/triple channel on socket 2011-V3.