Zen hasn't taped out yet

[Arachnotronic]

Zen was a clean sheet design that started few years ago. We are in the final figure of executing and the milestone that you want hear us talk about is Zen tapping out, which should be over the next several months. And then putting samples in the hands of our customer and then starting portfolio of revenue in 2017.

And by the way, because we have this reuse approach for cores, you will see us with Zen cores in the high-end desktop first and then the server from our overall products standpoint. But the key is tapping out in the next several months, samples and customers for the validation of the product over the 2016 time frame and then the revenue ramp happening in 2016.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/374...y-investors-conference-transcript?part=single

Jeez...

 

[ShintaiDK]

Ouch. Forget all about 2016 and then some.

They have absolutely no silicon yet. And it normally takes 12-18 months to end with a real product after that for CPUs.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Ouch. Forget all about 2016 and then some.

Guess I'll be stuck sitting on this slow and expensive Skylake for quite some time to come...

 

[Arachnotronic]

Ouch. Forget all about 2016 and then some.

They have absolutely no silicon yet. And it normally takes 12-18 months to end with a real product after that for CPUs.

This means they probably have no clue what the final silicon will actually clock at...

 

[svenge]

Zen was a clean sheet design that started few years ago. We are in the final figure of executing and the milestone that you want hear us talk about is Zen tapping out, which should be over the next several months. And then putting samples in the hands of our customer and then starting portfolio of revenue in 2017.

I guess that would explain why there's all this talk about Excavator-based AM4 chips, considering that it seems that Zen won't hit store shelves until mid-2017...

 

[witeken]

Also see the other quote:

We haven’t given the specifics but you know they taped out in the last few months and typically what happens on the product depending on when you taped it out it can be 12 to 14 months from the time you tape out the products to when you start shipping the products

So they say a couple of months until tape-out, but then they say it's 12-24 months for product shipment. Not sure if there's anything wrong with my math, but given 2015 is almost over, I don't see how they could be claiming 2016 launch...

 

[mikk]

This means no Zen next year as expected from me. There is roughly a year from tapeout to sale usually.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Also see the other quote:



So they say a couple of months until tape-out, but then they say it's 12-24 months for product shipment. Not sure if there's anything wrong with my math, but given 2015 is almost over, I don't see how they could be claiming 2016 launch...

This is a 2017 product in terms of real availability, IMO.

Say hello to Kaby Lake and Skylake Xeon, Zen!

 

[Sweepr]

Ouch. Forget all about 2016 and then some.

They have absolutely no silicon yet. And it normally takes 12-18 months to end with a real product after that for CPUs.

Yup, 2016 is looking like a difficult target at this point. Even if it happens in late 2016 (paper launch?), we can probably forget about broad availability till 2017. By then, Skylake-E will be around the corner with +10C/20T running on a brand new platform.

Guess I'll be stuck sitting on this slow and expensive Skylake for quite some time to come...

Oh I'm sure there will be plenty of marketing slides to keep you waiting.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Yup, 2016 is looking like a difficult target at this point. Even if it happens in late 2016 (paper launch?), we can probably forget about broad availability till 2017. By then, Skylake-E won't be far.

Yep. Broadwell-E IMO should be enough to successfully fend off Zen in HEDT (more cores, +5% IPC over HSW-E), but if Zen is the miracle core that some people envisage it as, Skylake-E should do a good job of regaining leadership.

 

[MrTeal]

This means no Zen next year as expected from me. There is roughly a year from tapeout to sale usually.

If things go well, hopefully. Intel's transition to 32nm went quite smoothly, and they launched Clarkdale/Arrandale in Jan 2010, almost a year after they demonstrated silicon in hand capable of running Windows.
http://www.dailytech.com/First+West...+D1D+Shown+Running+Windows+7/article14273.htm

Edit: Also, Intel demonstrated working SB silicon in Sept 2009, and launched SB in Jan 2011. http://techreport.com/news/17633/working-sandy-bridge-system-demoed

 

[Headfoot]

Pending information on Zen's release was staying my hand on an upgrade to X99 from a OC'd 2500k, but now that 2016 is out of the picture I'm not going to wait.

 

[Arachnotronic]

This means no Zen next year as expected from me. There is roughly a year from tapeout to sale usually.

That's even assuming that they get it right on the first try, which is seems unlikely in this case.

 

[monstercameron]

Talk about a circle#@%k. So its a 2017 product, big whoop.

 

[Sweepr]

Yep. Broadwell-E IMO should be enough to successfully fend off Zen in HEDT (more cores, +5% IPC over HSW-E), but if Zen is the miracle core that some people envisage it as, Skylake-E should do a good job of regaining leadership.

Realisticaly speaking, if Summit Ridge is H1-2017 now, what about their client APUs and server products? At this rate their APUs will have to face Cannonlake (rumoured to increase mainstream core count + Gen 10 graphics).

 

[mikk]

That's even assuming that they get it right on the first try, which is seems unlikely in this case.

1 year is a best case I know. With this in mind Zen isn't coming before mid-2015. With the typical delays even this target is optimistic.

 

[Shehriazad]

Ah don't worry...AMD will just work some magic and they'll have 5 Million units ready for shipping in 10 months...because that's totally plausible *cough* xD


I mean I'll get 2 AM4 boards regardless...but this is a bit sad. You'd think that they would get at least close to their plans...but if only one thing goes wrong there is even a risk of Zen being unavailable for SO long that it drops out of competitiveness just by being far too late. (Q4 2016/Q1 2017 it can at least still win on the pricing front...)

 

[Sweepr]

Everyone but fanboys saw this coming. Seriously they were expecting October 2016 (at the earliest) back in March. Now we're basically into 2016 and no tape out yet.

Ps: Shintai, one myth from your sig already busted.

 

[svenge]

You'd think that they would get at least close to their plans...but if only one thing goes wrong there is even a risk of Zen being unavailable for SO long that it drops out of competitiveness just by being far too late.

When was it even in competition in terms of performance, even when judged against 2½-year-old Intel Haswell chips from their mainstream line?

 

[Boze]

You mean I'll be using an expensive and fast Core i7-6950K in 2016?!

 

[Abwx]

Also see the other quote:
So they say a couple of months until tape-out, but then they say it's 12-24 months for product shipment. Not sure if there's anything wrong with my math, but given 2015 is almost over, I don't see how they could be claiming 2016 launch...

Because he s talking of the final iteration, the one that will be validated for production and the only one that is relevant for a financial guy...

FTR there s several tape outs before a chip is qualified, i guess that we had another demonstration of knowledge of this industry by the usual suspect.

Edit : Final silicon is the one marked ES :

 

[mikk]

Because he s talking of the final iteration, the one that will be validated for production and the only one that is relevant for a financial guy...

The same guy says this.

We haven’t given the specifics but you know they taped out in the last few months and typically what happens on the product depending on when you taped it out it can be 12 to 14 months from the time you tape out the products to when you start shipping the products

Doesn't look like final iteration.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Because he s talking of the final iteration, the one that will be validated for production and the only one that is relevant for a financial guy...

FTR there s several tape outs before a chip is qualified, i guess that we had another demonstration of knowledge of this industry by the usual suspect.

Edit : Final silicon is the one marked ES :

Well according to you current AMD products mop the floor with Intel's products right now, so no reason for you to be worried. :thumbsup:

 

[MrTeal]

Because he s talking of the final iteration, the one that will be validated for production and the only one that is relevant for a financial guy...

FTR there s several tape outs before a chip is qualified, i guess that we had another demonstration of knowledge of this industry by the usual suspect.

Edit : Final silicon is the one marked ES :

So when asked about Zen and timing by analysts, he didn't mention that they already have working silicon in-hand, but that they should wait to hear about Zen taping out in the next several months? You would think if they had working A0 silicon in-hand it would be something they'd like to share.

Also see the other quote:

We haven’t given the specifics but you know they taped out in the last few months and typically what happens on the product depending on when you taped it out it can be 12 to 14 months from the time you tape out the products to when you start shipping the products

So they say a couple of months until tape-out, but then they say it's 12-24 months for product shipment. Not sure if there's anything wrong with my math, but given 2015 is almost over, I don't see how they could be claiming 2016 launch...

That was talking about 16FF products, and the question was illegible, so it's hard to tell what they were talking about. It could have been Arctic Islands, or some other 16FF product instead of Zen.

 

[Abwx]

The same guy says this.

Doesn't look like final iteration.

He said that they have no enginering sample, and it s logical since those wont be available before a few months, so i really dont see what is new that would had deserved a new thread.

Currently what they have at hand are partly or fully functional dies that are used to test the different blocks or even the full chip but wich will be slightly redesigned to definitly fix the caracteristics.

So when asked about Zen and timing by analysts, he didn't mention that they already have working silicon in-hand, but that they should wait to hear about Zen taping out in the next several months? You would think if they had working A0 silicon in-hand it would be something they'd like to share.

They have no samples that could be sent to the OEMs, likely only silicon for in house tests, besides it s likely that they are not even manufactured using a definitive process..