Zen ETA Q4, '16 ?

[Elixer]

As more stuff dribbles in...
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20150910PD202.html

Monica Chen, Taipei; Joseph Tsai, DIGITIMES [Thursday 10 September 2015]

AMD's next-generation Zen architecture is expected to arrive in the fourth quarter of 2016 at the earliest, but sources from motherboard players are concerned that the late arrival of the new platform may put AMD in a rather difficult competitive position.

Seeing PC demand remaining weak and its server, embedded and tablet product shipments failing to achieve major growth, AMD reported losses of US$360 million for the first half of 2015.

The sources believe Zen architecture's late release is due to Globalfoundries' issues with R&D and yield rates for its 14nm FinFET manufacturing process.

The Zen architecture is expected to achieve a 40% improvement in performance compared to AMD's existing x86 architecture and will be able to support simultaneous multi-threading (SMT). The new architecture also adopts a new cache subsystem to boost CPU efficiency.

This is much later than I would have thought, and Gloflo to blame...again.

 

[Fjodor2001]

I think 2016Q4 matches the info we've received so far.

 

[frozentundra123456]

Not sure if this is correct or not, but I have said all along we should be prepared for delays. A new architecture on a new process node is a very big undertaking. Even intel doesn't attempt this.

 

[positivedoppler]

I'm curious as to why GF is delay. Aren't they a cut a paste of samsung?

 

[dark zero]

Considering that Kabylake is about to enter at 2Q 2016, it's pretty much a game over from AMD.
RIP AMD. No one will miss you.

Unless... Bristol Ridge enters at 14 nm, making the last Bulldozer movement and only appearing to buy time before Zen arrives.

 

[Sweepr]

So Q4-2016 at the earliest and yield issues for Globalfoundries's 14nm FinFET.
Zen in 2016 is looking like Broadwell in 2014.

 

[AtenRa]

Since Broadwell-E has been delayed to Q2-Q3 2016, a Q4 ZEN release is not a big deal. Also those CPUs are not high volume parts, there should be adequate capacity before Christmas.

Or a higher MSRP will be a nice remedy, much like Fiji

 

[Fjodor2001]

Zen in 2016 is looking like Broadwell in 2014.

Hmmm... what does that mean?

 

[AtenRa]

Considering that Kabylake is about to enter at 2Q 2016

FX ZEN CPUs are going against Intel Broadwell-E CPUs, not against those Kabylake APUs.

 

[ShintaiDK]

FX ZEN CPUs are going against Intel Broadwell-E CPUs, not against those Kabylake APUs.

So they will be expensive or lack performance. Pick one.

 

[ShintaiDK]

So Q4-2016 at the earliest and yield issues for Globalfoundries's 14nm FinFET.
Zen in 2016 is looking like Broadwell in 2014.

Yep, seems like its on a slide already.

 

[Enigmoid]

FX ZEN CPUs are going against Intel Broadwell-E CPUs, not against those Kabylake APUs.

Tail end of BW-E. Will also compete against SKL-E in early/mid 2017.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Will also compete against SKL-E in early/mid 2017.

Skylake-E will compete against tail end of Zen. Skylake-E will also compete against Zen+.

 

[Enigmoid]

Skylake-E will compete against tail end of Zen. Skylake-E will also compete against Zen+.

Zen is very likely a Q1 2017 - Q2 2017 volume product. Zen+ likely isn't coming out for at least a year after Zen (probably at least mid 2018).

 

[Sweepr]

Antecipating his next post, we already know Skylake-E is a 2017 product and the latest leak indicates no Summit Ridge successor in 2017:

So yes, AMD's miracle chip will probably face Skylake-E for most of its life cycle.

Oh, and Broadwell-E could be launched as soon as Cebit in late Q1-2016 according to Bench-life (source of the leaks). Not sure where the Q3-2016 launch B$ is coming from.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Zen is very likely a Q1 2017 - Q2 2017 volume product. Zen+ likely isn't coming out for at least a year after Zen (probably at least mid 2018).

According to the info released so far, Zen is a 2016Q4 product. No further delay has been announced. If Zen+ is one year later, it'll be 2017Q4 and compete against Skylake-E too.

And what's interesting too is that we know Cannonlake is seriously delayed, so there will not be a new E model from Intel for a long time after Skylake-E. KabyLake-E is not likely to happen, since the CPU in KabyLake is the same as Skylake, and the E models only contain a CPU (no iGPU).

 

[AtenRa]

Tail end of BW-E. Will also compete against SKL-E in early/mid 2017.

BW-E is Q2 and most probably Q3 2016, if ZEN will launch in Q4 2016 thats hardly a tail-end of BW-E.

And if BW-E is Q3 2016 it means Skylake-E is 2018 and not 2017. Or best case a Q3-Q4 2017 launch, that will put it one year later than ZEN.

 

[Enigmoid]

According to the info released so far, Zen is a 2016Q4 product. No further delay has been announced. If Zen+ is one year later, it'll be 2017Q4 and compete against Skylake-E too.

And what's interesting too is that we know Cannonlake is seriously delayed, so there will not be a new E model from Intel for a long time after Skylake-E. KabyLake-E is not likely to happen, since the CPU in KabyLake is the same as Skylake, and the E models only contain a CPU (no iGPU).

Um, the OP mentions that Zen is, at its earliest, a Q4 2016 product. It is quite likely that there will only be significant volume in 2017 (paper launch).

I also thought intel was splitting its consumer and professional lines (a la AVX-512).

 

[Fjodor2001]

Um, the OP mentions that Zen is, at its earliest, a Q4 2016 product. It is quite likely that there will only be significant volume in 2017 (paper launch).

2016Q4 is what has been communicated by AMD. Anything else is speculation.

 

[Absolute0]

I read Q4 2016 "at the earliest" which tells me yes this is a 2017 product. Poor AMD! I hope they survive. I used to be a huge AMD fanboy back when we had dual cores beating up the old, inefficient P4s. Then Conroe came out and I've been Blue ever since.

 

[mikk]

Realistically not before 2017 given that delays are business as usual. Q4 2016 won't be the last re-scheduling of Zen.

 

[Dresdenboy]

2016Q4 is what has been communicated by AMD. Anything else is speculation.

A few weeks ago I found an AMD'ers LinkedIn profile mentioning, that he works on the next gen x86 arch to arrive in 2017.

Edit:
The exact wording:

System Architect for Carrizo APU (launched in 2015) and AMD's next-generation (to be launched in 2017) mainstream mobile/desktop FX and A-series APU.

 

[dark zero]

Tail end of BW-E. Will also compete against SKL-E in early/mid 2017.

INBF Skylake E gets delayed until end 2017.
Meanwhile, Broadwell E seems to be a lackluster launch. That's the only chance for Zen to shine... For few months.
Also, Intel is screwing the HEDT sector hard and who won't if the earnings come from the normal Core i7 and there is no competition.

 

[MrTeal]

Have any real details on AM4 been released? Everyone's pointing at it being a PGA socket that's used for everything from the dual core APUs to 8-core FX. If they're using a 900-1000 pin socket similar to the previous AM generations, desktop Zen would probably end up being limited to dual channel DDR4 unless they end up releasing an HEDT platform similar to Intel.

 

[Arachnotronic]

Have any real details on AM4 been released? Everyone's pointing at it being a PGA socket that's used for everything from the dual core APUs to 8-core FX. If they're using a 900-1000 pin socket similar to the previous AM generations, desktop Zen would probably end up being limited to dual channel DDR4 unless they end up releasing an HEDT platform similar to Intel.

It is limited to dual channel DDR4

https://benchlife.info/amd-summit-ridge-platform-structure-confirm-05062015/