Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Joe NYC]

Hail Mary assumption about a phone memory? Are you serious?

Phone memory does not come in removable modules

LPDDR5 came out in CAMM package recently. It is for laptops and its price premium is high over any other memory option.

LPDDR6 is not available even in phones yet.

But you know that...

 

[Joe NYC]

If they add memory on the package they can maintain socket compatibility with a second memory controller for mainboard memory. Maybe you add a new bracket for the bigger package, but want to retain compatibility with the socket and previous coolers. Older CPUs still only use maiboard memory on the next generation. Older CPUs might benefit from the newer, optionally wider bracket when it comes to cooling the higher end Zen 5 CPUs. Or they just plunk on the old cooler because the bracket is made for both.

Maybe it makes the performance of integrated APUs possible that turn old competitor low end options obsolete and raises the bar to make Intel ARC/Iris Xe look feeble. Doesn't hurt AMD/ATI stockpiles as hard as the competition because they don't have it to spoil. Done with modest modification of an existing socket, not something requiring costly retooling by vendors.

How much more heat do you generate with 32 GB of LPDDR6 on the package? Seems like we could handle it with an additional 25 mm (approx. an inch) to 40 mm of packaging.

Qualcomm is doing something like that.

I don't think AMD left enough room for on board memory in FP10.

I don't know about Medusa Halo Package.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Phone memory does not come in removable modules

It does when you force a platform actually mandating it into the market.
Building PCBs is helluva lot easier than ramping a new memory standard.

I don't know about Medusa Halo Package.

No MoP at AMD, anywhere, ever.

 

[Joe NYC]

Meta and AMD Partner for Longterm AI Infrastructure Agreement

We’re announcing a long-term agreement with AMD to power our AI infrastructure with up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs, helping us build a flexible, resilient tech stack for our AI workloads.

about.fb.com

AMD and Meta Announce Expanded Strategic Partnership to Deploy 6 Gigawatts of AMD GPUs

News Highlights Meta is partnering with AMD to rapidly scale AI infrastructure and accelerate the development and deployment of cutting-edge AI…...

ir.amd.com

From the CC (heavily paraphrased)

Interest in Mi450 is high ... In addition to partnerships announced (OpenAI, Meta), there are a number of other strategic partnerships that are on the way.

It seems like AMD is about to break NVidia monopoly in datacenter GPUs.

On CPU including Zen 6, Lisa said server CPU market is "on fire."

 

[jpiniero]

From the CC (heavily paraphrased)

Interest in Mi450 is high ... In addition to partnerships announced (OpenAI, Meta), there are a number of other strategic partnerships that are on the way.

It seems like AMD is about to break NVidia monopoly in datacenter GPUs.

On CPU including Zen 6, Lisa said server CPU market is "on fire."

I wonder how much of it is legit and how much of it is FB being able to buy 10% of AMD when they know a deal like this is going to make AMD's shares pop.

nVidia did the same thing with Intel. Really, this circular economy stuff is crazy. It truly is an infinite money glitch.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I wonder how much of it is legit and how much of it is FB being able to buy 10% of AMD when they know a deal like this is going to make AMD's shares pop.

They'll run out of capex slush funds long before that.
It's just a binding vow that prevents AMD from being footballed around via meet the comp discounts.

 

[gdansk]

On CPU including Zen 6, Lisa said server CPU market is "on fire."

Oh no. This is perhaps Lisa code for "You will not be able to buy either NVL or Z6 in 2026/2027 because Meta etc bought all 2nm output in server chips".

 

[Joe NYC]

I wonder how much of it is legit and how much of it is FB being able to buy 10% of AMD when they know a deal like this is going to make AMD's shares pop.

nVidia did the same thing with Intel. Really, this circular economy stuff is crazy. It truly is an infinite money glitch.

The share transfer did not take place yet. There are multiple tranches, each one of which has a certain amount in purchases (by Meta) taking place and AMD stock reaching certain threshold. It only completes fully if Meta purchases the full commitment and stock reaches $600 (IIRC).

 

[adroc_thurston]

Oh no. This is perhaps Lisa code for "You will not be able to buy either NVL or Z6 in 2026/2027 because Meta etc bought all 2nm output in server chips".

Packaging starts are the limiter for MI450/Venice.

 

[Saylick]

The share transfer did not take place yet. There are multiple tranches, each one of which has a certain amount in purchases (by Meta) taking place and AMD stock reaching certain threshold. It only completes fully if Meta purchases the full commitment and stock reaches $600 (IIRC).

Exactly. It’s not like all the stock is immediately handed over to OpenAI/Meta today. It’s given in chunks at certain delivery and stock price milestones, with the final chunk handed over at $600/share.

 

[jpiniero]

Exactly. It’s not like all the stock is immediately handed over to OpenAI/Meta today. It’s given in chunks at certain delivery and stock price milestones, with the final chunk handed over at $600/share.

They are getting the shares 'for free' too? I was thinking it was just going to be options at yesterday's final price that FB could exercise whenever and they'd use the profits from that to pay for any product they do end up buying. And then some.

 

[Saylick]

They are getting the shares 'for free' too? I was thinking it was just going to be options at yesterday's final price that FB could exercise whenever and they'd use the profits from that to pay for any product they do end up buying. And then some.

I’ll gave to dig into it, but if it’s the same as the OpenAI deal, then the purchase price for the stock is $0.01 (1 cent) so it’s effectively getting the shares for free.

 

[coercitiv]

Man, Meta and OpenAI get AMD stock when they buy a CPU or a GPU, we get a game bundle.

Jokes aside, these types of deals stink badly, companies do it to prop their share prices and scare other companies into negotiating a better deal, but at the end of the day they're just empty promises with only a fraction of true value behind them.

Meta Builds AI Infrastructure With NVIDIA

Meta’s AI Roadmap Supported by Large-Scale Deployment of NVIDIA CPUs, Networking and Millions of NVIDIA Blackwell and Rubin GPUs News Summary: Meta expands NVIDIA CPU deployment and significantly improves performance per watt in its data centers. Meta scales out AI workloads with NVIDIA...

investor.nvidia.com

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwerner/2025/08/23/6-things-to-know-about-the-metagoogle-cloud-ai-deal/

 

[Joe NYC]

Man, Meta and OpenAI get AMD stock when they buy a CPU or a GPU, we get a game bundle.

Jokes aside, these types of deals stink badly, companies do it to prop their share prices and scare other companies into negotiating a better deal, but at the end of the day they're just empty promises with only a fraction of true value behind them.

Meta Builds AI Infrastructure With NVIDIA

Meta’s AI Roadmap Supported by Large-Scale Deployment of NVIDIA CPUs, Networking and Millions of NVIDIA Blackwell and Rubin GPUs News Summary: Meta expands NVIDIA CPU deployment and significantly improves performance per watt in its data centers. Meta scales out AI workloads with NVIDIA...

investor.nvidia.com

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwerner/2025/08/23/6-things-to-know-about-the-metagoogle-cloud-ai-deal/

The incentive for AMD is to be almost instantly elevated from a bit player to a contender in the most important segment of the chip market, probably in history of mankind.

AMD is at $2-$3 billion AI revenue per quarter, while NVidia is at ~$50 billion per quarter.

The 2 deals with OpenAI and Meta increase quarterly revenue run rate by ~$10 billion per quarter. Which is a difference between not being a contender and being a contender.

 

[coercitiv]

The incentive for AMD is to be almost instantly elevated...

I fully understand the incentive for AMD to enter in these deals, but that not prevent me from arguing they stink.

 

[CakeMonster]

It stinks to high heaven. The only thing OAI has delivered of actual value so far is their deals getting shares of other companies, undeservedly if you ask me. All their other operating numbers are blood red and they may be lying about how bad as well. I'm not gonna make predictions about what the potential future value could be but its gonna an absurdly steep hill to climb just to break even if they don't get new world records of VC money which there isn't an infinite amount of.

 

[Joe NYC]

I fully understand the incentive for AMD to enter in these deals, but that not prevent me from arguing they stink.

Yeah, I agree, these deals stink in number of different ways.

But it is turning out, you have to do these sorts of deal to continue to exist in this space. Or risk being marginalized and left behind.

Lisa said there are 5 players in position to make the types of deals (OpenAI, Meta). The other 3 are Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

Who knows, Lisa's plan may be to give each one 10% of AMD and to sway them all to switch to AMD.

It just happens (coincidence, isn't it?) that AMD authorized enough shares recently to be able to do exactly that.

 

[marees]

MLID thinks GFX1170 could be medusa point

 

[adroc_thurston]

MLID thinks GFX1170 could be medusa point

Wdym thinks, it is MDS1/2/3.

Lisa's plan may be to give each one 10% of AMD and to sway them all to switch to AMD.

This is entirely contingent on both deployments and share price milestones over a 5y period.
Everyone will run out of cash and cheap debt long before that.

It's just a backstop against NV doing FINANCIAL HORSEPOWER stuff with their FCF pile.

 

[Joe NYC]

This is entirely contingent on both deployments and share price milestones over a 5y period.
Everyone will run out of cash and cheap debt long before that.

There is a very strong likelihood of that. But of those top 5 AI customers, OpenAI is likely the most at risk, unless they can raise a huge bundle of cash in an IPO.

So, it is quite possible that OpenAI does not end up with full 10% of AMD, but Meta will more likely fulfill the obligations fully.

In a sense, the Meta deal greatly de-risked AMD's AI business.

It's just a backstop against NV doing FINANCIAL HORSEPOWER stuff with their FCF pile.

NVidia is using their FCF as a weapon to protect / reinforce the monopoly.
Hard to penetrate it, but Lisa + Jean figured out a way to penetrate it.

 

[adroc_thurston]

but Meta will more likely fulfill the obligations fully.

Meta was already sleeping with AMD since 2023 anyway.
But Zucc is also debtmaxxing too much.

NVidia is using their FCF as a weapon to protect / reinforce the monopoly.

Intel already did all that back when they were cash rich (Swan years, 2018-2021).

 

[inquiss]

Yeah, I agree, these deals stink in number of different ways.

But it is turning out, you have to do these sorts of deal to continue to exist in this space. Or risk being marginalized and left behind.

Lisa said there are 5 players in position to make the types of deals (OpenAI, Meta). The other 3 are Microsoft, Google and Amazon.

Who knows, Lisa's plan may be to give each one 10% of AMD and to sway them all to switch to AMD.

It just happens (coincidence, isn't it?) that AMD authorized enough shares recently to be able to do exactly that.

Exactly. They got authority to issue 1.75 billion shares and these deals take issued shares to 320million. There's still a lot of powder for acquisitions or. Similar deals for the other groups. And why not, I see only upside in the deal (until share price gets to 600 anyway)

 

[Saylick]

There is a very strong likelihood of that. But of those top 5 AI customers, OpenAI is likely the most at risk, unless they can raise a huge bundle of cash in an IPO.

I'm sure Jensen is happy to know his $30B cash infusion will be potentially helping his main competitor by keeping OpenAI solvent. /s

NVidia is using their FCF as a weapon to protect / reinforce the monopoly.
Hard to penetrate it, but Lisa + Jean figured out a way to penetrate it.

I think there's one advantage to AMD's approach over Nvidia's approach in that there's actual incentive for OpenAI/Meta to want AMD to succeed, because their upside to this deal is tied to AMD's success. Nvidia is basically just throwing discounts at preferred customers to keep them solvent so that they can keep the overall AI TAM growing, so in terms of "who needs who?", it's really Nvidia who needs OpenAI to succeed. For the AMD deals, it feels like it's OpenAI/Meta who needs AMD to succeed.

 

[Joe NYC]

I think there's one advantage to AMD's approach over Nvidia's approach in that there's actual incentive for OpenAI/Meta to want AMD to succeed, because their upside to this deal is tied to AMD's success. Nvidia is basically just throwing discounts at preferred customers to keep them solvent so that they can keep the overall AI TAM growing, so in terms of "who needs who?", it's really Nvidia who needs OpenAI to succeed. For the AMD deals, it feels like it's OpenAI/Meta who needs AMD to succeed.

You, there is an incentive for OpenAI and Meta in AMD succeeding.
One thing is that all goes according to plan, their stake in AMD as of today can be projected as ~ $33 billion based on number of share * share price. That goes to $100 billion if the stock ends at $600.

$100 billions happens to be the value of each one of the deals.
So, after spending $100 billion on Capex on AMD hardware, they will end up with $100 billions of AMD stock as asset on their balance sheet

 

[Saylick]

You, there is an incentive for OpenAI and Meta in AMD succeeding.
One thing is that all goes according to plan, their stake in AMD as of today can be projected as ~ $33 billion based on number of share * share price. That goes to $100 billion if the stock ends at $600.

$100 billions happens to be the value of each one of the deals.
So, after spending $100 billion on Capex on AMD hardware, they will end up with $100 billions of AMD stock as asset on their balance sheet

Right, on paper it looks like OpenAI and Meta effectively get their AMD GPUs for free, but AMD's stock price would go up 3x to accomplish that ($200 to $600). I don't think shareholders would be disappointed in that outcome.