Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

[Kepler_L2]

So bumblebee MDS-3 is also a transformer, hmmm 🤔 @Kepler_L2

TRANSFORMERS: BATTLEGROUNDS - Kids Videogame

Battle through the tangled multiverse on an open-ended adventure to Cybertron in TRANSFORMERS: BATTLEGROUNDS!

outrightgames.com

Yeah, SoundWave too. There's also a few things using Warhammer 40K codenames which haven't leaked yet.

 

[OneEng2]

They haven't even STARTED mass production of N2 yet. You think there will be finished N2P wafers in Q3 next year - which would be six months or less after the first finished N2 wafers? Dream on!

I agree! Unless N2P is such a trivial change to N2 .... but then , what would be the point?

Bumblebee (MDS-3): FP10 and/or FP8 socket: TSMC N3C monolithic
2-core Zen 6 + 2-core Zen 6c + 2-core Zen 6 LP = 6 total cores (2+2+2)
2-4 CU RDNA 4 or 3.5 (+) iGPU (both architectures are referenced as possibilities)
128-bit LPDDR5X memory controller
"MDS-3" is specifically listed as targeting the "budget laptop" market


There is also a new one "Medusa point little" aka MDS-2 — maybe this is scrapped now ? (Edit: maybe 2028?)

Medusa Point Little (MDS-2): FP10 socket, TSMC N3P monolithic
2 or 4-core Zen 6 + 4-core Zen 6c = 8-10 cores total (2 or 4+4+2) (AMD has not yet decided if they want to go with 2 or 4 "full" Zen 6 cores)
4 CU RDNA 4 or 3.5 (+) iGPU (both architectures are referenced as possibilities, and there are different CU counts referenced between documents of different variants)
128-bit LPDDR5X memory controller
"MDS-2" is specifically listed as targeting "AI 5" and "AI 3" class products

It does seem like AMD have abandoned any thought of sharing die across products. They seem perfectly happy to share modular architecture and make a butt ton of die.

all these are useless 😭 I'm 100% sure amd is losing money with all these choices

market only needs:
- medusa range (top end, x3D etc)
- medusa halo
- medusa baby
- phoenix++++

LOL. Not sure I agree with your individual markets; however, I do agree they don't need so many SKU's!

 

[Josh128]

Yeah, SoundWave too. There's also a few things using Warhammer 40K codenames which haven't leaked yet.

I used to have a Soundwave transformer toy back in the '80s. He had a cassette player in his chest and a little cassette that transformed into a pterodactyl/ condor. I used to have quite a few transformers, it seemed the toy quality was much better back in the 80s than the trash you generally see on the big box store shelves today. The dinobots were my favorite.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I cant wait to see what Gator Rande is.

Pretty sure that's meant to be Gator Range.

 

[Josh128]

Pretty sure that's meant to be Gator Range.

I know, I was being cheeky.

 

[Magras00]

N2P

N2P

N3P

So it's exclusively N3 based IODs for entire stack?

Not a cost optimized lineup for sure. Really looks like AMD is going all out but a N2P 12 core CCD and N3P IOD for lowest SKU can't be cheap. Either lower margins or everything gets a price increase nextgen.

 

[Kolifloro]

Some days ago ML said ...

2027 is too long ...

... now you can guess how long 2028 will be ...

Maybe AMD needs more consistent competitors ... ... but it doesn't look good : they're going to be the absolute kings at DC ... and regarding client, well ... that's NOT their main interest ... ... ... ... so ... 2028 ...

 

[adroc_thurston]

or everything gets a price increase nextgen

duhhhhhhhhhh.
you vvill pad me share price and there's nothing you can do about it.

 

[Josh128]

So it's exclusively N3 based IODs for entire stack?

Not a cost optimized lineup for sure. Really looks like AMD is going all out but a N2P 12 core CCD and N3P IOD for lowest SKU can't be cheap. Either lower margins or everything gets a price increase nextgen.

I think their line of thinking is that people who want cheap can buy Zen 4 or Zen 5. Or Zen 2 Mendocino if you are really strapped. They need to release an AM4 version of that. 🤣 🤣

Adroc is right, they going to make bank on Zen 6 unless Intel somehow pulls a rabbit out if its hat and forces them to lower pricing.

 

[511]

Adroc is right, they going to make bank on Zen 6 unless Intel somehow pulls a rabbit out if its hat and forces them to lower pricing.

Which they will do this time in client at least 😛

 

[DrMrLordX]

I know, I was being cheeky.

It was a pretty funny typo . . .

duhhhhhhhhhh.
you vvill pad me share price and there's nothing you can do about it.

He can just not buy anything. Never forget that.

 

[Josh128]

Which they will do this time in client at least 😛

Only time will tell... Still a lot of unknowns for both Nova Lake and Zen 6.

 

[yuri69]

Also, its a bit interesting that Zen 6 mobile isnt coming until 2027. Zen 5's first appearance was in mobile.

The mobile roadmap leaked back in 2024. It confirmed there was no Zen 6 for 2026. CES 2027 has always been assumed for Medusa stuff.

 

[fastandfurious6]

Either lower margins or everything gets a price increase nextgen.

Price increase

pricing model from now on generally will be

last gen = normal prices
new gen = premium prices

(doesnt include rehashes, different thing. though there won't be rehashes until zen6 and that's a good thing)

 

[gdansk]

This was widely discussed with Z3, people speculated that the 5900X would have a theoretical advantage in some scenarios over the 5950X. It was tested (I can't remember where) and nobody could find any scenario where it benefited.

Those have the same L3. Not what is being talked about.

They're saying even if an application doesn't use more cores there is more shared L3 available in Z6 than Z5. This should help games a bit. Like a poor man's vcache.

I am replying in the appropriate thread if one wants to continue the discussion.

 

[OneEng2]

I think their line of thinking is that people who want cheap can buy Zen 4 or Zen 5. Or Zen 2 Mendocino if you are really strapped. They need to release an AM4 version of that. 🤣 🤣

Adroc is right, they going to make bank on Zen 6 unless Intel somehow pulls a rabbit out if its hat and forces them to lower pricing.

I am pretty certain that IS their thinking.... mostly.

There has to be some overlap though. A 12c CCD that only yields 8 good Zen 6 full cores is STILL worth more to most people than a Zen 4 16c .... especially if it clocks higher than the Zen 4.

It will be interesting to see how the product lineup works out. AMD definitely has that roadmap out there for mobile showing exactly this kind of product mix... but the details (generation of cpu, # cores, # CCD's, amount of L3 etc) will be interesting.

 

[adroc_thurston]

has that roadmap out there for mobile showing exactly this kind of product mix...

?

 

[Josh128]

Those have the same L3. Not what is being talked about.

They're saying even if an application doesn't use more cores there is more shared L3 available in Z6 than Z5. This should help games a bit. Like a poor man's vcache.

I am replying in the appropriate thread if one wants to continue the discussion.

AMD project +10% IPC for Zen 6 over Zen 5 in MLIDs now famous (but real) AMD tick-tock cadence leak slide. I think we can take that to the bank (plus or minus 1 or 2 percent). That is average geomean IPC uplift over a range of workloads. The kicker is what IPC uplift will we see for gaming. It could differ significantly from the geomean of 10%. Unfortunately, we probably wont know anything more than that for another 12 months or so.

 

[Abwx]

AMD project +10% IPC for Zen 6 over Zen 5 in MLIDs now famous (but real) AMD tick-tock cadence leak slide. I think we can take that to the bank (plus or minus 1 or 2 percent). That is average geomean IPC uplift over a range of workloads. The kicker is what IPC uplift will we see for gaming. It could differ significantly from the geomean of 10%. Unfortunately, we probably wont know anything more than that for another 12 months or so.

Not +10% but 10%+, wich is not exactly the same thing, even if the end result should be very close since 11% would be enough to fulfill the promise.

 

[Josh128]

Not +10% but 10%+, wich is not exactly the same thing, even if the end result should be very close since 11% would be enough to fulfill the promise.

Stay calm, I did say plus or minus 1 or 2 percent. Things can always be better or worse than projections...

 

[Markfw]

Stay calm, I did say plus or minus 1 or 2 percent. Things can always be better or worse than projections...

View attachment 129711

since its 10+ that COULD mean like 13,14,15 or even higher.. That's because AMD never knows for sure how much higher until the QS's are done and tested !

 

[SteinFG]

My prediction
Ryzen 7 - 12C, 48MB L3, N3P: ~$399
Ryzen 5 - 10C, ?, N3P: ~$299
Ryzen 3 - 8C, 32MB L3, N4P: ~$199

$200 is too low. Bump all those by $50 would be my guess. Maybe even more (hopefully not).

My guess is
$449 12-core R7
$389 10-core R7
$329 8-core R5
$279 8-core R5 Zen5 (9700X refresh)

Basically a small reduction in $/core, nothing crazy.
This pricing pushes people with less than 300 dollars to buy last gen 8-cores, which is what AMD really wants.

 

[adroc_thurston]

$279 8-core R5 Zen5 (9700X refresh)

oh no they're not doing that.

which is what AMD really wants.

then want you to buy Zen6 and pay respective ASP premiums on it

 

[SteinFG]

oh no they're not doing that.

then want you to buy Zen6 and pay respective ASP premiums on it

maybe they can just keep selling it as R7 9700, but AMD likes to do pointless refreshes (5000 GT, XT), so not out of the question. No new silicon obviously, just renaming.

 

[adroc_thurston]

but AMD likes to do pointless refreshes (5000 GT, XT), so not out of the question

They haven't done that in a while.