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Question Zen 6 Speculation Thread

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adroc_thurston said:
Yeah it's really funny.
PTL is not a marketshare reclamation tool, it's all too 'orribly expensive for dat.
NVL and WCL will have chances though.
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Whoever told you that PTL is not for market share taking is wrong it's designed entirely to move volume Inhouse and replace ARL-U/H ASAP to relieve margin pressure and allow them to take market share.
WCL has a 4MB SLC just leaked fresh info 🤣
 
poke01 said:
Why is Intel even shipping N3B products, Apple moved on from N3B like it was posion
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Cause they prepayed a huge order that was nuts and they have to suck it up cause TSMC Screwed N3B.

adroc_thurston said:
It's an expensive part still, margin pressure will be lower relative to only LNL.
They're not reclaiming any share until WCL.
Even then, it's gonna be tough as nails.
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ARL-H as well for ARL-U we have PTL 4+0+4
adroc_thurston said:
?
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1924322132722655664
 
adroc_thurston said:
PTL doesn't have the cost structure to stop AMD share gains.
Dell announcing a full AMD-based commercial stack was like the last straw before seven hells froze all over again.
Click to expand...

The full impact is still coming up. AMD gained 3% of revenue market share in Q1 before any meaningful revenue impact from:
- Kraken
- Strix Halo
- Dell commercial "Pro" lines of products.

This is an ongoing trend.
 
511 said:
The cost to produce 18A is similar to Intel 7 but higher margin ofc. For cost of I7 it is slightly more expensive than N4 to produce iirc can't remember the source exactly so don't hold me on that.
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Intel 7 was produced using Intel's existing DUV lithography. 18A use EUV, and Intel does not enough of this equipment. This equipment still needs to be purchased, it is more expensive.

Intel 7 products were monolithic. Panther Lake will be chiplet based, using also TSMC silicon, and also using the most expensive packaging of any client product.

511 said:
Make it 2.5 Quarter by Q1 26 it will be in mass availability.
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That's just start of availability. It may take a year before Panther Lake reaches 50% of notebook shipments.
 
Joe NYC said:
The full impact is still coming up. AMD gained 3% of revenue market share in Q1 before any meaningful revenue impact from:
- Kraken
- Strix Halo
- Dell commercial "Pro" lines of products.
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Yeah I know.
Joe NYC said:
This is an ongoing trend.
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Yeah I know how product rollouts work.
Joe NYC said:
18A use EUV, and Intel does not enough of this equipment
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They do.
Joe NYC said:
before Panther Lake reaches 50% of notebook shipments
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yeah about that...
 
Well, in regards to GPU..
I don't think what people actually need is as big a factor as what people think the MIGHT need, or simply want.
I bought a laptop with such a Ryzen so that I can play Civ 6 (last one) and Civ 7 (this one). Even though the last Civ I played was Civ 4, as that was the time where I actually had time for it.

Or, the smartphones.. Mid range chips max out all the games at 120FPS yet there is still a pissing contest.
 
MarkizSchnitzel said:
Well, in regards to GPU..
I don't think what people actually need is as big a factor as what people think the MIGHT need, or simply want.
I bought a laptop with such a Ryzen so that I can play Civ 6 (last one) and Civ 7 (this one). Even though the last Civ I played was Civ 4, as that was the time where I actually had time for it.

Or, the smartphones.. Mid range chips max out all the games at 120FPS yet there is still a pissing contest.
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Smartphones and Laptops gaming segments are way different tbf
 
Joe NYC said:
Imagine you time travel ~12 months to the future, and you see that AMD client revenue soared, and is greater than AMD server CPU revenue. Big part of the client gains was AMD gaining share in the Premium segments on desktop and notebook.

At that time, it will be seen as only logical that AMD wanted to build on this, went with N2, and that the price premium from selling more premium products >> cost increment from N2.
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I see where you are going with this; however, AMD is gaining market share already and doing it from a process shrink behind. It seems likely to me that they will shrink from N4P to N3P and still gain market share from a process shrink behind ..... and note that the difference between N3P and N2 is likely only 10% in transistor density.
511 said:
Or it got reduced due to Panther Lake where Intel won't feel margin pressure they will have the ability to reduce prices and supplying their own silicon.
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Not that I want to make a habit of agreeing with adroc, but Panther Lake will be a very expensive part for Intel to make. I am not sure where their head is on this one. That is one big chunk of silicon for the compute die if I understand the latest leaks correctly.
adroc_thurston said:
PTL doesn't have the cost structure to stop AMD share gains.
Dell announcing a full AMD-based commercial stack was like the last straw before seven hells froze all over again.
Click to expand...
Agree.
 
OneEng2 said:
Not that I want to make a habit of agreeing with adroc, but Panther Lake will be a very expensive part for Intel to make. I am not sure where their head is on this one. That is one big chunk of silicon for the compute die if I understand the latest leaks correctly.
Click to expand...
Why do you think that PTL is very expensive if anything it is going to be equal or cheaper than Arrow Lake H.
114mm2 is on 18A while it is expensive it is not that expensive as buying N4 Wafers not to mention TSMC has already hiked the price couple of times this year are you guys ignoring that?
54mm2 N3E silicon it is going to be slightly expensive and 49mm2 N6 Silicon this is dirt cheap and the rest two are passive that is just raw material. Include Advanced Packing as well which is not cheap though.
Arrow Lake H for Reference has every silicon made on TSMC so there goes Intel's foundry margin there is not a single Intel silicon except for the base die.
 
adroc_thurston said:
Doesn't exist.
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So what's their plan? No more offerings for a rising market of windows handhelds? Stick with Strix Point until Zen7?



If we really think about it, this Medusa Point looks a lot more like a Krackan Point successor than a Strix Point one. If the 2x LP cores only light up on standby / idle operation, they won't count for load performance at all. That leaves us with basically a Kracken Point design where they switched Zen5 for Zen6 and added the IFOP PHYs.


So something's missing here. Perhaps there's more than one Medusa Halo IOD, and the smaller one could fit the >20W range.
 
ToTTenTranz said:
this Medusa Point looks a lot more like a Krackan Point successor than a Strix Point one.
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You mean the R5/R7 flavor of Medusa Point 1, right? The R9 flavor of Medusa Point 1 however is obviously in a different league.

ToTTenTranz said:
So something's missing here.
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Another point to take note of is that the twitter post spoke of a "Medusa Point *1*". (Emphasis added by myself.) Wasn't it mentioned a while ago already that there is more? Although I don't know if this is about CPU or iGPU "swim lanes" or even something else.
 
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