Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Joe NYC]

I don't see how AMD sets the MSRP for the 9700X at $299 when the MSRP for the 7700X was $399. It is true though that Zen 4 prices cratered pretty quickly. Maybe AMD learned from that. I doubt it. They can be their own worst enemy at times.

Oops, I think I got myself confused a little bit here (with pricing)...

 

[Goop_reformed]

Based on what? Overblown expectations?

Based previous performance uplift from zen 2, 3 and 4.

We need to keep in mind that datacenter is a more strategic area for AMD, and in datacenter (and HPC), there are more uses of AVX-512. For example, AI differencing running on CPU, without a GPU. That may be far more economical approach for lightly loaded system without spending arm and a leg on NVidia hardware.

We may hear more about this at the time of official Turin release.

I did say "for us plebs". Still waiting for an official review but it doesn't seem it will be anything different than what Amd said aka 16% is 16% and not anything else.

 

[poke01]

It’s funny when people call Zen 5 performance mid.

I do wonder what they would called the Skylake -> Kabylake increase. Junk? (tbh, it was)

Seriously we live in the best times in the CPU industry. OEMs using ARM CPUs as measurements, Intel bringing its A game again and it’s a strong contrast to the GPU world where everything is Nvidia dominated.

 

[adroc_thurston]

a strong contrast to the GPU world where everything is Nvidia dominated.

Lmao, GPU comp is hotter than ever.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

Based previous performance uplift from zen 2, 3 and 4.

I did say "for us plebs". Still waiting for an official review but it doesn't seem it will be anything different than what Amd said aka 16% is 16% and not anything else.

Well, there are multiple things at play.

• Node jumps are getting smaller and smaller, meaning you can cram less additional circuitry with each generation. So IPC gains are getting harder to come by. Still, 16% is the second largest gen-on-gen jump;
• Clock speed gains were bound to run out at some point as well;
• Third, N3B being sort of a dud and Zen 5 being back ported to N4 means that some stuff was likely cut. I find it very curious that AMD were hell-bent on keeping the CCD area the same (under 70mm^2). That leads me to think the design team had limited transistor budget, so it makes sense that the jump isn't as big as some hoped.

Don't get me wrong, I myself wished for low 20s IPC jump. But 16% is still pretty respectable, albeit not earth-shattering.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Node jumps are getting smaller and smaller, meaning you can cram less additional circuitry with each generation.

Ugh, no, logic is the only thing that scales.
What you can't pile on is cache or shoreline I/O.

 

[FlameTail]

Third, N3B being sort of a dud and Zen 5 being back ported to N4 means that some stuff was likely cut.

How do you know this? Is this an assumption?

If AMD really wanted 3nm, they could have done N3E.

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

How do you know this? Is this an assumption?

If AMD really wanted 3nm, they could have done N3E.

I said "likely cut".

 

[Joe NYC]

I did say "for us plebs". Still waiting for an official review but it doesn't seem it will be anything different than what Amd said aka 16% is 16% and not anything else.

Yeah. Assuming that there was a certain budget for die area, and AVX-512 spend a good chunk of that budget, there is not much left "for us plebs" in other areas.

Zen 4 and Zen 5 are still short of critical mass for game developers to seriously consider AVX-512 optimizations. It will probably have to wait until next generations of Consoles come out with AVX-512.

The transition gamers from using Intel processors or AMD AM4 processors -> AM5 processors (which have AVX-512) would also need to kick into higher gear...

 

[CouncilorIrissa]

Ugh, no, logic is the only thing that scales.
What you can't pile on is cache or shoreline I/O.

oh it does, but shrink factors are nowhere near as big. Intel targeted what, 2.7x increase in density with their back-then 10nm node? Whereas N3 vs N5 is like a 1.7x increase for logic.

 

[Joe NYC]

How do you know this? Is this an assumption?

If AMD really wanted 3nm, they could have done N3E.

Not if N3B was the only process technology available when first Zen 5 silicon came out.

Since N3B was not worth the cost, AMD back ported to N4P.

 

[poke01]

Lmao, GPU comp is hotter than ever.

Not in market share. I go by that. It’s funny you think its hot.

 

[poke01]

If AMD really wanted 3nm, they could have done N3E.

3NE is a decent node. AMD should have gone for that for client too.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Not in market share. I go by that. It’s funny you think its hot.

Client MSS irrelevant, GPGPU wars are in full force now.

Intel targeted what, 2.7x increase in density with their back-then 10nm node?

That was never sane or reasonable or even possible.

How do you know this? Is this an assumption?

If AMD really wanted 3nm, they could have done N3E.

They did.
For Dense CCD.

 

[Joe NYC]

Ugh, no, logic is the only thing that scales.
What you can't pile on is cache or shoreline I/O.

I think the way to min-max this is to have 2 dies stacked on top of each other, one N6, the other in advanced node, and use Wafer on Wafer stacking, so that the default processor is a stacked processor, that is highly cost (plus power and performance optimized)

 

[poke01]

is X3D launching September?
Might wait till then

 

[FlameTail]

3NE

you OK bud?🤣

 

[gdansk]

is X3D launching September?
Might wait till then

Who knows!
But there's no harm in waiting unless you have a real garbage processor now.

 

[Markfw]

@adroc_thurston , do you have a more specific date for reviews to come out ? Or retail availability of Zen 5 ? More than July something ?

 

[poke01]

you OK bud?🤣

yeah I see now 😂😂

 

[Goop_reformed]

is X3D launching September?
Might wait till then

That's only 2 months after the stock zen 5. Why is amd launching X3D parts much sooner than zen 2 and 3 equivalents?

 

[Makaveli]

That's only 2 months after the stock zen 5. Why is amd launching X3D parts much sooner than zen 2 and 3 equivalents?

If that launch is true I guess this time they are not concerned with X3D parts affecting vanilla Zen 5 sales?

 

[jpiniero]

If that launch is true I guess this time they are not concerned with X3D parts affecting vanilla Zen 5 sales?

Or they are concerned that Zen 5 will be a dud because the 7800X3D is faster in games.

 

[Goop_reformed]

Or they are concerned that Zen 5 will be a dud because the 7800X3D is faster in games.

How so?

 

[H433x0n]

How so?

Desktop DIY seemingly cares about gaming performance over everything else. If AMD wants to move Zen 5 chips they’re betting it’ll have to be packaged with X3D.

Just look at sales of 7800X3D vs the rest of the Zen 4 lineup.