Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[tamz_msc]

170 watts for an 8-core?

Presumably these may not be final TDP, but over 20 watts/core is going to be quite toasty.

 

[adroc_thurston]

So it begins...

yes. soon™.

Presumably these may not be final TDP, but over 20 watts/core is going to be quite toasty.

same rules at Raphael, heat limits are smashed before power ones.

 

[tamz_msc]

yes. soon™.

same rules at Raphael, heat limits are smashed before power ones.

7700X was 105 watts.

 

[igor_kavinski]

7700X was 105 watts.

This time maybe if you can cool it well enough, it will scale? And besides, enthusiasts have shown that they don't care how hot a chip runs as long as they can have the fastest or top 1% benchmark scores in the world. The LGA1700 line is proof of that.

 

[Kaffeekenan]

So, what is our consensus as far as Arrow Lakes competitiveness is concerned? Zen 5 seems to be a really nice chip and many people believe, that there will be a rather huge performance bump. Will it be enough to clearly defeat Arrow Lake or will it be a close fight. I tend towards a close fight, maybe in slight favor of Zen5. Any thoughts?

 

[deasd]

This time maybe if you can cool it well enough, it will scale?

Assuming Zen5 core is 50% larger than Zen4, heat density could be unleashed quite a bit. If Zen5 DT strategy is the same as Zen4 which tend to push silicon close to its limitation, I guess it could push higher with Zen5.
But is this 8-core thing indeed Granite Ridge? Any chance it could be 8-core EPYC Turin?

 

[H433x0n]

170 watts for an 8-core?

Presumably these may not be final TDP, but over 20 watts/core is going to be quite toasty.

I’m assuming it’s not final specs or a typo. That’d mean that the 9950X power draw would exceed AM5 limitation of 230W.

 

[gdansk]

So, what is our consensus as far as Arrow Lakes competitiveness is concerned? Zen 5 seems to be a really nice chip and many people believe, that there will be a rather huge performance bump. Will it be enough to clearly defeat Arrow Lake or will it be a close fight. I tend towards a close fight, maybe in slight favor of Zen5. Any thoughts?

I suspect some of the X3D parts will be quite desirable.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I’m assuming it’s not final specs or a typo. That’d mean that the 9950X power draw would exceed AM5 limitation of 230W.

Either 9950X's cores have to make do with reduced power within the 230W PPT limit or AMD mandates the OEMs to release special mobos that provide higher power than that. Maybe AM5+?

 

[igor_kavinski]

But is this 8-core thing indeed Granite Ridge? Any chance it could be 8-core EPYC Turin?

I think it's deliberate misinformation. I can only find the 6C entry by searching Granite Ridge at https://en.nbd.ltd/

 

[adroc_thurston]

7700X was 105 watts.

That's a lower end SKU.
9800X is $499 if you're lucky.

 

[Joe NYC]

But is this 8-core thing indeed Granite Ridge? Any chance it could be 8-core EPYC Turin?

More likely Granite Ridge.

Turin has some 20+ SKUs, and the 8 core SKU is the most marginal.

While for Ryzen desktop, the 8 core SKU is the main SKU.

 

[Joe NYC]

That's a lower end SKU.
9800X is $499 if you're lucky.

If they call the 8-core part without V-Cache 9800X, that would be a signal that AMD indeed plans to go up in price.

Otherwise, following Zen 4 naming, 8 core part would be called 9700X.

 

[adroc_thurston]

AMD indeed plans to go up in price

Isn't that obvious.

 

[Joe NYC]

Isn't that obvious.

I would not put it past the AMD marketing, which is the weakest link in the AMD chain.

Introduce 8 core Zen 5 as 9800X at $499, and within weeks allowed it to be discounted at $399.
As opposed to calling it 9700X at $399 and try to maintain the MSRP at $399.

Or is anybody really fooled when they buy a processor at $399, when it says $100 off, from $499?

 

[adroc_thurston]

I would not put it past the AMD marketing, which is the weakest link in the AMD chain.

Marketing doesn't call prices much.
They do, well, marketing.

Introduce 8 core Zen 5 as 9800X at $499, and within weeks allowed it to be discounted at $399.

They don't have to.
It can be $549 and people would still evaporate it off the shelves.

As opposed to calling it 9700X at $399 and try to maintain the MSRP at $399.

9700X just won't exist.

 

[Tigerick]

Isn't that obvious.

No, I still think AMD will maintain current pricing and dropping Zen4 to sub-$200 level. Let's put in the table below:

	6 core	8 core	12 core	16 core
Zen 3	$299	$449	$549	$799
Zen 4	$299	$399	$549	$699
Zen 5 (adroc)		$549		$999
Zen 5 Official Prices	$279	$359	$499	$649

DIY market is not exactly growing. That's why AMD has dropped the price of 7950X from $799 to $699. And in case you didn't know, AMD's client PC revenue has dropped from $6.8 billion (2022) to $6.2 billion....

If you think AMD will increase the prices of Zen5, give me your price and I will update the table for you...and bookmark it.

 

[adroc_thurston]

No, I still think AMD will maintain current pricing and dropping Zen4 to sub-$200 level.

it just goes EOL.
Instantly obsolete.

That's why AMD has dropped the price of 7950X from $799 to $699.

Because comp pressure.
Which doesn't exist for Zen5 until h2'26.

 

[Goop_reformed]

Because comp pressure.
Which doesn't exist for Zen5 until h2'26.

What the F? Are you telling me it will take intel 2 gens to catch up with zen 5?

 

[Tigerick]

it just goes EOL.
Instantly obsolete.

Because comp pressure.
Which doesn't exist for Zen5 until h2'26.

I know ArrowLake does not look good, but as I said the DIY market is not growing. Why not give me your estimated or should I put $999 for 16-core?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Are you telling me it will take intel 2 gens to catch up with zen 5?

Yeah lol.
ARL is a meme and PTL is a nothingburger tick that doesn't exist on DT.
Nova Lake ftw.

but as I said the DIY market is not growing.

which is why you hike ASPs.
are you daft

 

[Tigerick]

Yeah lol.
ARL is a meme and PTL is a nothingburger tick that doesn't exist on DT.
Nova Lake ftw.

which is why you hike ASPs.
are you daft

So you admit DIY market is shrinking and AMD will increase the prices instead...

OK, got it. I will put $549 for 8-core and $999 for 16-core since you said it

 

[adroc_thurston]

So you admit DIY market is shrinking

It's not going anywhere.

AMD will increase the prices instead...

You always hike the ASP when no comp.

 

[Tigerick]

It's not going anywhere.

You always hike the ASP when no comp.

NP, I have updated the table for you and bookmark it. Will come back when AMD launch the Zen5...

PS: I recommend others bookmark it also so that we can witness the raise of AMD's desktop Zen 5 prices..

 

[dr1337]

How many times can you guys have the exact same conversation and not get bored? Yall are just trying to inflate those post counts, lmao admit it.