Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)

[DisEnchantment]

Speculate at will

 

[Fjodor2001]

They will have something to compete with Qualcomm and Apple.

Yeah, maybe we’ll see people migrating to Windows on ARM with Qualcomm X Elite.

 

[Rigg]

yea but what are you gonna do?
buy Intel? lol

yea true Zen3 sales were just awful despite price bumps across the stack.

Not buy anything? Buy something older at a severely reduced price?

yeah true US retailers had to cut prices on Zen 3 a month or so after launch when AMD got crapped on for the price increase over the previous gen.

yeah true reviewers put pressure on them to do so despite destroying intel in performance right up until alder lake launched over a year later.

 

[itsmydamnation]

Not buy anything? Buy something older at a severely reduced price?

yeah true US retailers had to cut prices on Zen 3 a month or so after launch when AMD got crapped on for the price increase over the previous gen.

yeah true reviewers put pressure on them to do so despite destroying intel in performance right up until alder lake launched over a year later.

Why would they reduce price, transistor pricing scaling is dead. Inflation globally is still high. Like what fantasy land do you al live in. Did you not just watch what happened to GPUs?

Why would amd give up margin? The answer is the people who want a 8 core zen5 buts priced to high will complain and then either buy it or buy the 6 core.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Not buy anything?

It's ok, others will.

Buy something older at a severely reduced price?

It's EOL and stocks won't last forever.

yeah true US retailers had to cut prices on Zen 3

They didn't, it was supply limited and sold above SRP for months.
Lmao.

yeah true reviewers put pressure on them

No?

 

[moinmoin]

Regardless of the final prices I expect the MSRP price/performance ratio to actually be better with Zen 5 than Zen 4 when launched. (Street prices obviously will be different as usual.)

 

[DaaQ]

I remember when the FX50, Intel EE were 1000$ cpu's. Before they even split to HEDT. Then again I got an add email from Newegg for a 4090 at an amazingly discounted 2000$ just today. 2099 Strix 4090 200$ off with promo code, MSRP 2299$

Yea so a 800 16 core doesn't sound absurd if it is top performance.

 

[Timmah!]

It's ok, others will.

They wont, like they did not with 7950x and as result AMD had to drop its price by 100 off like 2 months later. I shall know, i had to cancel my order to and re-order it back for that discounted price
I believe your performance predictions, but no way AMD is bumping price to successor of a product from gen to gen by 40 percent. That is kind of pricebump you have to invent new product tiers to sell that. Good luck selling CPU with same amout of cores and frequencies as 7950x for 300 more because reasons.

 

[Markfw]

It's ok, others will.

It's EOL and stocks won't last forever.

They didn't, it was supply limited and sold above SRP for months.
Lmao.

No?

Yes, there are people like me, that if the reviews hold to what you are saying, I will be buying one, day one, $1000 or not. Cheaper than a 9554 system ($1300 CPU on ebay, $800 mobo, $1100 memory and the rest like PSU and NVME)

 

[Tigerick]

Yes, there are people like me, that if the reviews hold to what you are saying, I will be buying one, day one, $1000 or not. Cheaper than a 9554 system ($1300 CPU on ebay, $800 mobo, $1100 memory and the rest like PSU and NVME)

Mark, that is you. Take China market which are big market for AMD and Intel, people there are price sensitive. If AMD/Intel price the CPU too high, they won't get much sales. That's why AMD has to adjust Zen4 pricing after two months due to lack of sales.

 

[Tigerick]

No, I still think AMD will maintain current pricing and dropping Zen4 to sub-$200 level. Let's put in the table below:

	6 core	8 core	12 core	16 core
Zen 3	$299	$449	$549	$799
Zen 4	$299	$399	$549	$699
Zen 5 (adroc)		$549		$999

DIY market is not exactly growing. That's why AMD has dropped the price of 7950X from $799 to $699. And in case you didn't know, AMD's client PC revenue has dropped from $6.8 billion (2022) to $6.2 billion....

If you think AMD will increase the prices of Zen5, give me your price and I will update the table for you...and bookmark it.

BTW, Zen4's GB6 ST performance is almost 40% higher than Zen3. Yet AMD has to price 7950X $100 lower...

 

[Rigg]

They didn't, it was supply limited and sold above SRP for months.
Lmao.

My time table was a bit off. This was peak covid scalping so your statement is accurate. I went back and checked old posts. 5800x was in stock at Micro Center and selling at $50 below MSRP by May 2021 with an additional bundle discount if you bought a motherboard. So it was closer to 6 months before it was discounted and not 1 month like I thought. I bought one BNIB at MC for $300 in November 2021. This was before ADL and X3D launched. Zen 4 was reduced in price a few months after launch. My timetable was off but the overarching point is valid.

 

[Glo.]

Mark, that is you. Take China market which are big market for AMD and Intel, people there are price sensitive. If AMD/Intel price the CPU too high, they won't get much sales. That's why AMD has to adjust Zen4 pricing after two months due to lack of sales.

Looking at Nvidia, and their GPUs - people do not care if those GPUs are overpriced, for what they are. But hey, its Nvidia. AMD cannot price their products in a premium category, right?

Guess what. Zen 5 paints to be a genuine premium product that nobody on desktop, DIY can compete.

 

[yottabit]

BTW, Zen4's GB6 ST performance is almost 40% higher than Zen3. Yet AMD has to price 7950X $100 lower...

The difference is Intel has a competitive product to the 7950x. That won’t be the case for Zen 5 for a long while if we believe the rumors from adroc et al

 

[Tigerick]

Another example, 8000G series, Phoenix APU has improved everything compared to 5000G series. GPU performance are almost double, has AIE; something Zen5 does not have. There is no competitor from Intel, and yet, AMD price it $30 cheaper....go figure

 

[Glo.]

I believe your performance predictions, but no way AMD is bumping price to successor of a product from gen to gen by 40 percent. That is kind of pricebump you have to invent new product tiers to sell that. Good luck selling CPU with same amout of cores and frequencies as 7950x for 300 more because reasons.

IF Zen 5 is what rumors suggest - it will sell, no matter the price.

 

[H433x0n]

The expanded power budget and increased fmax doesn’t make much sense if you assume AMD knows how ARL will perform and they have a good idea of what they’ll have to achieve to get performance leadership.

If you’ve got a healthy lead, why push it even further? If you can win by 15% with a lower TDP and not having to push clocks as hard - wouldn’t that make more sense than increasing TDP and running nearly 6ghz for a 25% lead? It’s the same logic that prevents nvidia from launching a 4090 Ti.

 

[adroc_thurston]

If you’ve got a healthy lead, why push it even further?

They aren't, it's still 230W PPT on top.

 

[Rigg]

The difference is Intel has a competitive product to the 7950x. That won’t be the case for Zen 5 for a long while if we believe the rumors from adroc et al

Intel didn't have a competitive product to the 5900x or the 5950x for a year. They only increased the 5950x MSRP by 7% over the 3950x. It was also significantly discounted several months before Alder lake and X3D launched despite the crazy market conditions due to the pandemic.

 

[Tigerick]

The difference is Intel has a competitive product to the 7950x. That won’t be the case for Zen 5 for a long while if we believe the rumors from adroc et al

You are forgetting AMD itself as competitor, when AMD launched Zen4 with 40% better performance, the sales did not take off becuase 5800X3D offer better performance/price. Also Zen3's pricing has dropped below $200 make it more attractive choices for DIY market. Eventually, AMD has to adjust Zen4 pricing even they are 40% faster.

The history will repeat itself cause current 7800X3D will be better choice if AMD price Zen5 too high....

 

[adroc_thurston]

when AMD launched Zen4 with 40% better performance

No?
Not in video games.

becuase 5800X3D offer better performance/price

Because none of the vanilla Z4 parts were better in gaming.

 

[igor_kavinski]

If you can win by 15% with a lower TDP and not having to push clocks as hard - wouldn’t that make more sense than increasing TDP and running nearly 6ghz for a 25% lead?

That's up to the user. He/she may choose Eco mode if they want that.

 

[igor_kavinski]

@adroc_thurston , enough about the positive aspects of Zen 5 and the one bad aspect you keep talking about (price). Please list all the weaknesses/follies made in the Zen 5 design that make it too good at one thing at the expense of something else. What's the worst aspect of its architecture? What could've been done better that will be rectified in Zen 6? What did they want to include but had to give up due to lack of time/resources? Is the memory controller of Zen 5 gonna be better tweaked out of the gate or will it be the same thing as with Zen 4 all over again?

 

[H433x0n]

That's up to the user. He/she may choose Eco mode if they want that.

That’s not how the tech press will interpret it (assuming they remain consistent in how they review CPUs). If the out of box settings have 8950X pulling 250W+, they’ll go nuts and make clickbait thumbnails for videos.

 

[adroc_thurston]

If the out of box settings have 8950X pulling 250W+, they’ll go nuts and make clickbait thumbnails for videos.

The PPT is 230W.
It's platform, not CPU-dependent.

Please list all the weaknesses/follies made in the Zen 5 design that make it too good at one thing at the expense of something else.

IPC isn't free, you're paying in area and power.

 

[igor_kavinski]

If the out of box settings have 8950X pulling 250W+, they’ll go nuts and make clickbait thumbnails for videos.

They did that with Intel's offerings because AM5 CPUs managed to meet or exceed their performance at a lower power. There will be nothing to meet or exceed Zen 5's performance so it's power usage if high will get ignored or acknowledged in the conclusion/verdict part with "it does like to eat power BUT you also get the best performance on the planet!".