You think the US Economy is Recovering ?!

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W

wwswimming

Banned
Jan 21, 2006
3,695
1
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thank God for a few good financial journalists.

e.g. Karl Denninger, John Mauldin, and John Williams.

Sales tax receipts
Short Version ~ "bad to horrified" - state sales tax people.
Long Version ~
"John Maudlin cites the same numbers I do in a recent article:

I called Philippa Dunne at The Liscio Report. They survey the various states about taxes, among other things. "Sales taxes are not up and the current survey we are doing is pretty bad." She used the word "horrified" when commenting on some of the respondees' replies at the various state tax offices.

That's current economic activity folks, and it is why you keep hearing about states with horrifying budget problems."


Employment ... or Lack Thereof.
Percentage of the Population that is Employed:
EMRATIO_Max_630_378.png


63% in 2007 - 58% now.


Debt to GDP ratio
Short Version - we're going deeper into debt, to recover from economic problems that had their root in ... too much debt.
absolute-1980.png



Residential Foreclosure Rates.
Rising. Not falling.

9% in 2009. 8% in 2008. 7% in 2007.

That chart is somewhere on Denninger's site.

Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg, Fox Business - Cheerleaders.


Denninger
"A "Macro Level" Look At The Economy"
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/categories/4-Macro-Economics

Mauldin
"Just Biding Our Time Before The Crash In 2011"
http://www.businessinsider.com/just-biding-our-time-before-the-crash-in-2011-2010-1
 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
35,546
9,776
136
Thank you for bringing to light the truth behind the continuing economic meltdown. We would not have seen it otherwise.
 
C

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Jaskalas said:
Thank you for bringing to light the truth behind the continuing economic meltdown. We would not have seen it otherwise.
Click to expand...

He posted useful information. You didn't and attacked him.

While I'm posting, I'll put in a plug for "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips again.

By the way, what's the unit bar about above? It's showing $60 trillion in debt.

What's going on is the earlier stages of making a middle crash wipeout inevitable - now is the time to take corrective action. It should be no surprise the only way to do this is to elect more progressives.
 
S

soccerballtux

Lifer
Dec 30, 2004
12,553
2
76
Craig234 said:
He posted useful information. You didn't and attacked him.

While I'm posting, I'll put in a plug for "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips again.

By the way, what's the unit bar about above? It's showing $60 trillion in debt.

What's going on is the earlier stages of making a middle crash wipeout inevitable - now is the time to take corrective action. It should be no surprise the only way to do this is to elect more progressives.
Click to expand...

does that mean Krugman??
 
glenn1

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Craig234 said:
He posted useful information. You didn't and attacked him.

While I'm posting, I'll put in a plug for "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips again.

By the way, what's the unit bar about above? It's showing $60 trillion in debt.

What's going on is the earlier stages of making a middle crash wipeout inevitable - now is the time to take corrective action. It should be no surprise the only way to do this is to elect more progressives.
Click to expand...

Progressives run plenty of jurisdictions and some are awful (see Detroit). How about picking competent people first and for their progressive/conservative/whatever views second?
 
A

Avvocato Effetti

Senior member
Nov 27, 2009
408
0
0
The economy that I operate in has not suffered at all.

Choose the wrong field and you will be at the mercy of the market.
 
Zebo

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
I try to stay away from Denninger he's too depressing, not saying he's wrong, but man i'd never do anything productive if I listened to all his doom and gloom. I am prepared if SHTF though have water, diesel, food stores for about a year.
 
Zebo

Zebo

Elite Member
Jul 29, 2001
39,398
19
81
Craig234 said:
He posted useful information. You didn't and attacked him.

While I'm posting, I'll put in a plug for "Bad Money" by Kevin Phillips again.

By the way, what's the unit bar about above? It's showing $60 trillion in debt.

What's going on is the earlier stages of making a middle crash wipeout inevitable - now is the time to take corrective action. It should be no surprise the only way to do this is to elect more progressives.
Click to expand...

That is our total current debt. I think it include national, business and personal. Don't know if it inclues state and municipal.

We definitely need to make some choices before they are made for us.
 
C

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
glenn1 said:
Progressives run plenty of jurisdictions and some are awful (see Detroit). How about picking competent people first and for their progressive/conservative/whatever views second?
Click to expand...

There are a number of responses, but to pick one, I think you need to distinguish levels of government.

Stick to the national level for progressives, and discuss their competence there.

Republicans can do a far better job running cities than countries, IMO. The nature of the duties are a much better fit for them where they can't go changing societies' distribution of wealth a lot and invading.

But a far more important point: you don't appreciate the importance of agenda.

A lot of economic 'competence' is technical knowledge - and it's the agenda applying it that determines whether it's competency applied to make the rich richer, or competency to make the middle stronger.

Saying only competence matters is like saying 'let's see who has the more competent military officers. It doesn't matter which army they're in, the US or the Nazis, only their competence'. No, it matters.
 
C

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
Zebo said:
That is our total current debt. I think it include national, business and personal. Don't know if it inclues state and municipal.

We definitely need to make some choices before they are made for us.
Click to expand...

Thanks, that makes sense then. Few know recenlty private has skyrocketed much worse than public.

We agree - the policies allowing the exploitation for short-term wealth for a few need to be ended.
 
L

LegendKiller

Lifer
Mar 5, 2001
18,256
68
86
Zebo said:
That is our total current debt. I think it include national, business and personal. Don't know if it inclues state and municipal.

We definitely need to make some choices before they are made for us.
Click to expand...

The debt/GDP multi-counts a lot. The number is actually far lower than that and the increase is magnified by the multi-counting.

As far as the jobs picture, it is bad, but the decline has slowed and will likely improve soon.
 
glenn1

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
Craig234 said:
There are a number of responses, but to pick one, I think you need to distinguish levels of government.

Stick to the national level for progressives, and discuss their competence there.

Republicans can do a far better job running cities than countries, IMO. The nature of the duties are a much better fit for them where they can't go changing societies' distribution of wealth a lot and invading.

But a far more important point: you don't appreciate the importance of agenda.

A lot of economic 'competence' is technical knowledge - and it's the agenda applying it that determines whether it's competency applied to make the rich richer, or competency to make the middle stronger.

Saying only competence matters is like saying 'let's see who has the more competent military officers. It doesn't matter which army they're in, the US or the Nazis, only their competence'. No, it matters.
Click to expand...

How about competency to both make the rich richer AND the middle class stronger?

There are examples of both conservative and progressive successes and failures in the economic realm (at whatever level of government). San Francisco is progressive-led, and has been a disaster for the middle class, who are leaving in droves. Progressive President FDR suffered the 1937 Recession and of course the Great Depression dragged on until WWII. Other examples abound.
 
A

Avvocato Effetti

Senior member
Nov 27, 2009
408
0
0
dmcowen674 said:
You work at Goldman Sachs and get a $600,000 bonus?
Click to expand...

I will only reveal that I am in a business that is recession proof.

I missed the dot.com bubble and burst. I missed the mortgage bubble and burst.

I stayed away from swaps, options and all the other paper invented by JP Morgan. BTW, they are the only ones who knew how to do it right.

The way to prosperity is through daily contribution to the market in a quality way.

That is life.

Agressive opportunism will always lead to death.
 
W

wwswimming

Banned
Jan 21, 2006
3,695
1
0
Craig234 said:
He posted useful information. You didn't and attacked him.
Click to expand...

it's cool, but thanks for saying something. i don't feel like i was attacked.

i got thick skin.

but meanwhile ... in Australia it's 11:15 AM Monday - this website tracks world time -
http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/

... and their markets are up 1/2 %
http://money.cnn.com/data/world_markets/

i know reality will eventually set in in the equity markets but right now they're skipping along with out a care in the world. like a hippie on acid or something.

i can't help but be curious how the finance news shows talk their way around a steadily rising mortgage foreclosure rate. i have a feeling it involves pointing to the stock market & saying, "SEE ?! it's still going up ! it's a RECOVERY !"

i think the Fed Board of Gov has some interesting charts -
BOGNONBR_Max_630_378.png


non-borrowed reserves are bank reserves that they actually own. when the number was negative it indicated a condition resembling insolvency. when the number whipped back positive it indicates the gifting of money to the banks by the Fed.

TRARR_Max_630_378.png


long story short, they're printing money like a hippie on acid with a very fast laser printer.
 
C

Craig234

Lifer
May 1, 2006
38,548
350
126
glenn1 said:
How about competency to both make the rich richer AND the middle class stronger?

There are examples of both conservative and progressive successes and failures in the economic realm (at whatever level of government). San Francisco is progressive-led, and has been a disaster for the middle class, who are leaving in droves. Progressive President FDR suffered the 1937 Recession and of course the Great Depression dragged on until WWII. Other examples abound.
Click to expand...

I say discuss the competence of the progressives on national policy. You respond with San Francisco.

Now, San Francisco may have a foreignb policy but last I checked, you did not respond as I suggested.

I'm not getting into a discussion of whether you're right about SF, because of that.

But FDR, now that's fair game. Couple things though. What were the real causes of the 1937 recession? If they were progressive mistakes, how do they fit in the competence balanced against the other policies?

We've had decades for the right to build the myths for demonizing their arch-enemy who led the country out of their mess, FDR. We have to cut through those lies.

Fact is, for the decades starting with FDR's new deal, we had no financial meltdowns for the first time of that period, we had less concentration of wealth while the rich were still fine, a thriving middle class, etc.

By the way, isn't WWII being credit for turning the economy around better a contradiction of right-wing doctrrine?

The federal government spends massively, going into great debt - and not even for productive things like education and infrastructure, for figuratively or literall burning the money in war supplies, and we thrive.

Makes you wonder if we shouldn't repeated the WWII economics, but put the money to productive purposes instead of war, eh?
 
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