You guys are down... Says who?... Polls, All of them.

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MomentsofSanity

MomentsofSanity

Lifer
Jan 25, 2011
17,191
9,727
146
Jaskalas said:
These polls?
Why crow over a statistical tie?
Click to expand...
Rasmussen has consistently been the only poll that showed Trump ahead or tied for the last 2 months. They have routinely been the glaring outlier in all polling the last few months.

As for the LA Times/USC measure there's something you're missing in that number. The significant drop in the likelihood to vote indicated by the Trump supporters they've locked in to that survey the last two weeks.
 
M

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
74,971
6,802
126
JockoJohnson said:
This is just so sad and pathetic at this point. Does this moron seriously not know Trump is down according to EVERYONE?

Says who...what a f'n moron. Trump's camp needs to face reality and wake the hell up if they want to even try and win this race. I have serious doubts about Trump even wanting to win by his past and current behavior.
Click to expand...

The problem with your post is that while it is true that conservatives supporting Trump have important things to wake up to, liberals should understand that they have a similar irrational flaw that drives them to react as irrationally in the face of conservative denial as conservatives are irrational in their denial. Liberals are quite terrified of how irrational conservatives are and react in a correspondingly irrational way to that fact.

The flaw, then, is that while you are right that conservatives need to cease their irrational denial for their own good and the good of everybody else, they will not do so just because liberals are terrified they won't and they will not respond with anything but denial to being informed they are in denial.

Two things have to happen. One is that they need to see why they are in denial and to accept that they have to be in that state. They were powerfully conditioned as children to conform, both to authority and to their group. The torture to insure they did so was brutal. You are asking them to drop the defense they built, their state of denial, that protects them from suffering the memory of the pain they were subjected to. You are also asking them to do that without facing your own similar condition, your fear of their mental state.

I would suggest that you first need to deal with your own fear of them, so that you can sympathize with their state rather than fear and hate them. Then and only then, when you are emotionally free from any need to change them, you can offer your sympathy for their state and suggest that they are not to blame for their own condition and that they might want to consider the possibility that life can be lived without all the defenses they have built. The only person we have any real chance of changing is ourselves. Every person who does so adds a bit more love to the world.
 
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zinfamous

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
111,994
31,558
146
MomentsofSanity said:
Rasmussen has consistently been the only poll that showed Trump ahead or tied for the last 2 months. They have routinely been the glaring outlier in all polling the last few months.

As for the LA Times/USC measure there's something you're missing in that number. The significant drop in the likelihood to vote indicated by the Trump supporters they've locked in to that survey the last two weeks.
Click to expand...

Rasmussen is also the discredited poll that showed Romney winning handedly and, I believe, was the only poll that Karl Rove was following--which lead to his hilarious on-air meltdown.
 
Ken g6

Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
16,829
4,812
75
Some people won't believe anything's down until Netcraft confirms it.

The Trump campaign probably wouldn't even believe them. :p
 
MomentsofSanity

MomentsofSanity

Lifer
Jan 25, 2011
17,191
9,727
146
zinfamous said:
Rasmussen is also the discredited poll that showed Romney winning handedly and, I believe, was the only poll that Karl Rove was following--which lead to his hilarious on-air meltdown.
Click to expand...
I believe you are correct.

As to the USC/LA Times day break poll it's too new to really measure how accurate a predictor it is. It was just introduced the middle of last month. Time will tell on that one.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,261
55,834
136
MomentsofSanity said:
I believe you are correct.

As to the USC/LA Times day break poll it's too new to really measure how accurate a predictor it is. It was just introduced the middle of last month. Time will tell on that one.
Click to expand...

The USC/LA Times poll has a really unique way of looking at the election which has probably inserted a fairly large pro-Republican bias. It's a panel survey so they keep asking the same people from week to week. The problem is that they weight their survey based on who the people in the panel say they voted for in the last election, and it's very common for people to say they voted for the winner when they actually didn't. Therefore they are almost certainly weighting their poll to in a way in which Republican voters are being counted as former Democratic voters, skewing the sample.

Regardless of the results on election day I would bet money that the USC/LA Times poll will predict a result several points more favorable to the Republicans than what actually occurs.
 
Jaskalas

Jaskalas

Lifer
Jun 23, 2004
36,469
10,749
136
fskimospy said:
Why would you cherry pick polls? The polling averages have Clinton with a large lead, doesn't it make more logical sense to trust the average of many polls?
Click to expand...

Personally, polls aren't going to show voter turnout on election day. And that is what will decide this election. You might think it's in the bag, but maybe it's not. Trump has an unusual base, you might agree.

As for the polls I presented, they're posted on Drudge. He's been thumping for Trump for the past year.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,261
55,834
136
Jaskalas said:
Personally, polls aren't going to show voter turnout on election day. And that is what will decide this election. You might think it's in the bag, but maybe it's not. Trump has an unusual base, you might agree.

As for the polls I presented, they're posted on Drudge. He's been thumping for Trump for the past year.
Click to expand...

The polls have been awfully good at showing the results on election day for awhile now, no? I don't think the election is in the bag because it's August. I do think if the election were held today it would be a slaughter though. That's what the polls tell us.

We also know from history that the electoral outcome is unlikely to change between now and November. It might get close (I expect it to), but it's very unlikely Trump will win barring some external event. So in the bag? No. Trump in deep deep shit? Yes.
 
flexy

flexy

Diamond Member
Sep 28, 2001
8,464
155
106
Something very important that you shouldn't forget:

For those people, the truth is not relevant, NEVER has been.

The truth is only relevant for us, "liberals". The Trumpers and hardcore Reps etc. don't even have an interest in the truth. It is only important if a story fits their narrative. And EVERY story, no matter how far-fetched, can fit their narrative..which means the mere existence of a story already full-fills their purpose.

(If the truth were in any way relevant, sites like Infowars, Breitbart etc. wouldn't even exist)
 
Meghan54

Meghan54

Lifer
Oct 18, 2009
11,684
5,228
136
Donald Trump’s Crucial Pillar of Support, White Men, Shows Weakness


Donald J. Trump’s support among white men, the linchpin of his presidential campaign, is showing surprising signs of weakness that could foreclose his only remaining path to victory in November.

If not reversed, the trend could materialize into one of the most unanticipated developments of the 2016 presidential campaign: That Hillary Clinton, the first woman at the head a major party ticket and a divisive figure unpopular with many men, ends up narrowing the gender gap that has been a constant of American presidential elections for decades.

Interviews with voters found that Mr. Trump’s increasingly outlandish behavior was rubbing many in his key voting bloc the wrong way. “I liked Trump until he opened his mouth,” said Phil Kinney, a retired middle school administrator and a Republican from Bethlehem, Pa. The recent string of attacks Mr. Trump has unleashed, particularly his criticism of the family of a Muslim soldier killed in Iraq, left Mr. Kinney disappointed. Faced with the choice of voting for Mr. Trump or Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Kinney said he may just stay home.

Two national polls conducted this month have Mrs. Clinton catching up to Mr. Trump among men over all. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Mrs. Clinton with 43 percent support among men to his 42 percent. A Bloomberg Politics survey put Mr. Trump with a low-single-digit lead among men, according to the pollster who conducted the survey, Ann Selzer.

The data reveal a huge gap in those who have a college education and those who do not. As Mr. Trump saw in the Republican primaries, he is most vulnerable with white men who have a college education or higher. Mr. Romney won that group, which votes at a higher rate than those without college degrees, by 21 points. Recent national polls have put Mr. Trump’s support with them far lower.

“We’re looking at a margin among college-educated white men for him that’s less than half what Romney won,” said Gary Langer, an independent pollster who conducted an ABC News/Washington Post survey this month that showed Mr. Trump losing over all to Mrs. Clinton. “And that is problematic for Trump given his need to appeal to whites.”

Self-identified Republicans, white women, the wealthy and well-educated people of all races are turning their backs on him. Two national polls have recently put his support from African-Americans at an astonishing 1 percent. Separate Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist surveys in Ohio and Pennsylvania from July found that zero percent of black voters said they planned to vote for him. The latest poll of Latinos, conducted within the last week by Fox News, had Mr. Trump with just 20 percent support, below the 27 percent that Mr. Romney received in 2012.
Click to expand...

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...hite-men-shows-weakness/ar-BBvMotQ?li=BBnb7Kz
 
ivwshane

ivwshane

Lifer
May 15, 2000
33,747
17,401
136
Moonbeam said:
The problem with your post is that while it is true that conservatives supporting Trump have important things to wake up to, liberals should understand that they have a similar irrational flaw that drives them to react as irrationally in the face of conservative denial as conservatives are irrational in their denial. Liberals are quite terrified of how irrational conservatives are and react in a correspondingly irrational way to that fact.

The flaw, then, is that while you are right that conservatives need to cease their irrational denial for their own good and the good of everybody else, they will not do so just because liberals are terrified they won't and they will not respond with anything but denial to being informed they are in denial.

Two things have to happen. One is that they need to see why they are in denial and to accept that they have to be in that state. They were powerfully conditioned as children to conform, both to authority and to their group. The torture to insure they did so was brutal. You are asking them to drop the defense they built, their state of denial, that protects them from suffering the memory of the pain they were subjected to. You are also asking them to do that without facing your own similar condition, your fear of their mental state.

I would suggest that you first need to deal with your own fear of them, so that you can sympathize with their state rather than fear and hate them. Then and only then, when you are emotionally free from any need to change them, you can offer your sympathy for their state and suggest that they are not to blame for their own condition and that they might want to consider the possibility that life can be lived without all the defenses they have built. The only person we have any real chance of changing is ourselves. Every person who does so adds a bit more love to the world.
Click to expand...


Is it fear or is it the inability of the left to understand how or why people are so irrational to facts? (The key words there are "irrational to facts")
 
MongGrel

MongGrel

Lifer
Dec 3, 2013
38,466
3,067
121
Fear not found and/or many opposing facts in the thread so far.

I guess you are referring to denial.
 
F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,261
55,834
136
Jaskalas said:
Three. Not that your choice of media would allow you to know it.

Zogby: Clinton and Trump in Statistical Tie
Click to expand...

This one also shows Clinton ahead. The mainstream media is reporting on the state of the race using polling averages. This is the statistically correct way to do it and the media would be biased to report it any other way. Any site that is reporting differently than that has an agenda. Surely you see that, right?

As an aside, Zogby is one of the worst rated pollsters by fivethirtyeight.
 
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