YAHybridT: Does my math pan out?

[Ns1]

Cost of hybrid vs cost of other vehicle

Assume: 500 miles per week, 3.90 per gallon, similar repair & maintenance costs


25mpg vehcle
.156 cents per mile, $78/week, $4056/year


45mpg vehcle
.08667 cents per mile, $43 per week, $2253/year

Now, comparing these 2 vehicles, it's a $1802 savings per year

If you drive the car to the ground (8 years), that's a savings total of $14,421

So wouldn't the formula in determining if this is a fiscally responsible purchase be

if [(cost of hybrid) - (cost of non-hybrid)] > NPV of (14,421) then purchase hybrid
else purchase non-hybrid

Yes no maybe?


//edit

NPV of 14421 is about 11k. So, assuming you drive the car for 8 years, 500 miles a week, and gas prices are 3.90/gallon

Wouldn't the hybrid be a better choice unless you got a car that was a full 11k less? SO for a 22k prius, that cutoff would be 11-12k...

 

[Chapbass]

One thing...at 500 miles a week, thats 26000 miles a year. If I remember right alot of people were saying that those hybrid batteries are only really going to last ~100k miles. Even if you got more than that, it might not last a full 200k which is what 8 years would look like. If the battery is shot..theres another big cost to get a new one.

Granted, i could be wrong as i dont really research hybrids whatsoever, but I thought i remember reading that.

 

[ElFenix]

wtf is npv? present discounted value?

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: ElFenix
wtf is npv? present discounted value?

net present value


aka, the present value of $1 x years from now, today

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: Chapbass
One thing...at 500 miles a week, thats 26000 miles a year. If I remember right alot of people were saying that those hybrid batteries are only really going to last ~100k miles. Even if you got more than that, it might not last a full 200k which is what 8 years would look like. If the battery is shot..theres another big cost to get a new one.

Granted, i could be wrong as i dont really research hybrids whatsoever, but I thought i remember reading that.

hm 26k miles/year sounds like alot

maybe i should revise my estimates for 20k/year

 

[desy]

Average is 15K a year for most people

 

[MiataNC]

I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

 

[MiataNC]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

 

[Chapbass]

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

I actually had a quick question about that. OP: I'm not trying to hijack your thread, but it relates to hybrids. If you want me to move it to its own thread lemme know.



I was reading on another forum (okay okay, it was a forum devoted to SRT cars, but still). They were saying that the costs associated with making the li-ion battery (especially the plant up in canada that apparentally has dead forests everywhere around it from acid rain), transporting it across the world to the different manufacturing plants, etc...actually makes hybrid vehicles WORSE for the environment as a whole (not just in the consumers hands) than a traditional v6 or v8 car (they used the charger as an example).

Yes, they did in fact include the fact that the hybrid is much better from its better fuel efficiency, but also said that these savings werent enough to offset the damage to the environment from the construction of a hybrid.



Does anyone know if there is any truth to this? I'll see if I can find the thread.

 

[Ns1]

Originally posted by: Chapbass

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

I actually had a quick question about that. OP: I'm not trying to hijack your thread, but it relates to hybrids. If you want me to move it to its own thread lemme know.



I was reading on another forum (okay okay, it was a forum devoted to SRT cars, but still). They were saying that the costs associated with making the li-ion battery (especially the plant up in canada that apparentally has dead forests everywhere around it from acid rain), transporting it across the world to the different manufacturing plants, etc...actually makes hybrid vehicles WORSE for the environment as a whole (not just in the consumers hands) than a traditional v6 or v8 car (they used the charger as an example).

Yes, they did in fact include the fact that the hybrid is much better from its better fuel efficiency, but also said that these savings werent enough to offset the damage to the environment from the construction of a hybrid.



Does anyone know if there is any truth to this? I'll see if I can find the thread.

I've heard lots of similar stories. Quite frankly, that's not a concern to me lol

 

[Chapbass]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: Chapbass

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

I actually had a quick question about that. OP: I'm not trying to hijack your thread, but it relates to hybrids. If you want me to move it to its own thread lemme know.



I was reading on another forum (okay okay, it was a forum devoted to SRT cars, but still). They were saying that the costs associated with making the li-ion battery (especially the plant up in canada that apparentally has dead forests everywhere around it from acid rain), transporting it across the world to the different manufacturing plants, etc...actually makes hybrid vehicles WORSE for the environment as a whole (not just in the consumers hands) than a traditional v6 or v8 car (they used the charger as an example).

Yes, they did in fact include the fact that the hybrid is much better from its better fuel efficiency, but also said that these savings werent enough to offset the damage to the environment from the construction of a hybrid.



Does anyone know if there is any truth to this? I'll see if I can find the thread.

I've heard lots of similar stories. Quite frankly, that's not a concern to me lol

Well, to be honest I wasnt asking if it was a concern to you, i was asking if anyone know if that held weight.

 

[Ns1]

text

fair enough. in that case get your own fucking thread!



kidding

 

[Throckmorton]

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

If you end up spending the same amount, and putting out a lot less CO2, why NOT get the hybrid?

 

[Chapbass]

Originally posted by: Ns1

fair enough. in that case get your own fucking thread!



kidding

 

[Uhtrinity]

Originally posted by: Chapbass

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

I actually had a quick question about that. OP: I'm not trying to hijack your thread, but it relates to hybrids. If you want me to move it to its own thread lemme know.



I was reading on another forum (okay okay, it was a forum devoted to SRT cars, but still). They were saying that the costs associated with making the li-ion battery (especially the plant up in canada that apparentally has dead forests everywhere around it from acid rain), transporting it across the world to the different manufacturing plants, etc...actually makes hybrid vehicles WORSE for the environment as a whole (not just in the consumers hands) than a traditional v6 or v8 car (they used the charger as an example).

Yes, they did in fact include the fact that the hybrid is much better from its better fuel efficiency, but also said that these savings werent enough to offset the damage to the environment from the construction of a hybrid.



Does anyone know if there is any truth to this? I'll see if I can find the thread.

That is misinformation. First of all a vast majority of the Hybrids use NiMH which is very environmentally friendly. A nickel mine like any other mine might cause some local damage, but that is going to happen regardless of the heavy metals being mined. Entire forests being destroyed? Links, I couldn't find any. I'm not sure about lithium, though it hasn't seen mainstream usage in cars yet. Even without recycling NiMH batteries break down into their non toxic components. That isn't even considering they are 100% recyclable and have extremely long lifetimes.

As to the op, hybrids might cost a little more, but the fuel savings does add up, especially as gas prices are climbing daily. What you save in gas will be higher next year than this year. As far as maintenance being higher, with the long battery warranties, and the prevalence of replacement parts (batteries) it is currently a non issue for someone willing to do some research. I just replaced my 8 year old functioning battery pack with a slightly used Civic pack for $275 shipped. Since that I have also rebalanced my 8 year old pack to 90% of its original capacity. This is an area that is finally seeing some interest, and will most likely carry over into the mainstream for those out of the 8 year / 100k mile warranties.

I have no regrets on buying my Insight 1 year ago for $6,400 even with 143 k miles. It runs like a charm, and gets phenomenal mileage, and to top it off it is cheap to keep running. Granted I am willing to get my hands dirty (in an electrical sense), but through mine and other's trials more information is found and posted online for others to use. What I have done with my Insight can be done with any of the mainstream hybrids for the same low cost.

 

[Uhtrinity]

Originally posted by: Throckmorton

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

If you end up spending the same amount, and putting out a lot less CO2, why NOT get the hybrid?

CO2 output is directly proportional to the amount of gas you burn, My explorer (which I rarely drive) gets about 18 mpg average. My old Saturn SC2 got 25 town, 35 highway. My Insight gets 55 - 65 town, 75+ highway, and into the low 100's if I decide to push it to the limits. That is a huge CO2 and pocketbook difference. Add to that we can get off of middle eastern oil all that much sooner

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Ns1
Cost of hybrid vs cost of other vehicle

Assume: 500 miles per week, 3.90 per gallon, similar repair & maintenance costs


25mpg vehcle
.156 cents per mile, $78/week, $4056/year


45mpg vehcle
.08667 cents per mile, $43 per week, $2253/year

Now, comparing these 2 vehicles, it's a $1802 savings per year

If you drive the car to the ground (8 years), that's a savings total of $14,421

So wouldn't the formula in determining if this is a fiscally responsible purchase be

if [(cost of hybrid) - (cost of non-hybrid)] > NPV of (14,421) then purchase hybrid
else purchase non-hybrid

Yes no maybe?


//edit

NPV of 14421 is about 11k. So, assuming you drive the car for 8 years, 500 miles a week, and gas prices are 3.90/gallon

Wouldn't the hybrid be a better choice unless you got a car that was a full 11k less? SO for a 22k prius, that cutoff would be 11-12k...

Now imagine that gas prices double over the next 8 years.

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Chapbass
One thing...at 500 miles a week, thats 26000 miles a year. If I remember right alot of people were saying that those hybrid batteries are only really going to last ~100k miles. Even if you got more than that, it might not last a full 200k which is what 8 years would look like. If the battery is shot..theres another big cost to get a new one.

Granted, i could be wrong as i dont really research hybrids whatsoever, but I thought i remember reading that.

Toyota warranties the batteries in their hybrid cars for 10 years.

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: Chapbass
One thing...at 500 miles a week, thats 26000 miles a year. If I remember right alot of people were saying that those hybrid batteries are only really going to last ~100k miles. Even if you got more than that, it might not last a full 200k which is what 8 years would look like. If the battery is shot..theres another big cost to get a new one.

Granted, i could be wrong as i dont really research hybrids whatsoever, but I thought i remember reading that.

hm 26k miles/year sounds like alot

maybe i should revise my estimates for 20k/year

I managed to put 24,000 miles on a vehicle in one year once...mostly commuting miles. I made some adjustments the following year and by car pooling and bike commuting/taking the train I dropped that down to 10,000 miles the next year working at the same place.

 

[mwmorph]

Originally posted by: MiataNC

Originally posted by: Ns1

Originally posted by: MiataNC
I don't think there is a vehicle on the road that gets 25/gas and 45/hybrid.

Run your numbers using something like a Civic (36/gas 45/hybrid). The fuel savings between gas and hybrid is nowhere near the numbers/dollars you are estimating with.

??

The car I have now is 25mpg

I pegged the prius at 45 mpg

Originally posted by: desy
Average is 15K a year for most people

We're way over 15k/year. Not 26k/year though.

Do the math on any gas powered car that gets 36. Using your numbers you would save $1,200 per year, or $600 less than a hybrid. If you kept the car for 8 years you would spend $4800 more on fuel than a Hybrid. Any Hybrid you buy will cost you $3-6K more than the standard model. Eating up your fuel savings upfront and with interest over time on the car loan.

I am all for promoting hybrids, but right now the bang for the buck isn't there.

This is an interesting proposition but here's my $0.02, I recently talked with an energy professor and he brought up a valid point.

I don't want to get political but every time you spend money on gas, your money is going to mostly corrupt Russia (especially since Putin has been taking control of oil companies for the government), Venezuela(almost all of the profits anytime you go to Chevron), who hates us or the middle east, where invariably, a small percentage finds it's way to countries who either support, fund terrorism, or just straight up hate us.

Even if you break even, hybrids create
a) more jobs
and
b) more of the money goes to countries that don't hate us like the US, Mexico and Japan

It just makes more economic sense. For every Escape/Vue/Tsahoe Hybrid you buy, we keep a good amount of money in America, for every Prius/Altima/Civic Hybrid, we give it to one of our strongest allies, Japan. Also, production of those cars creates/supports more jobs than the petroleum industry does. Manufacturing cars just is a better proposition than drilling for oil.

If it as up to me and it was the exact same amount of money or even a bit more, I'd go for the hybrid or diesel every time over buying more oil.

With oil prices creeping up, the economic proposition also looks better. Oil will not be $3.75 forever. In Europe, gas is up to $8.xx a gallon in London, granted they have much higher petroleum taxes(America is the developed nation with the lowest petrol taxes). Gas will breach $4 and in 8 years $5 is likely, $6 possible or probable imo.

It'd be rash and irresponsible not to look at better mileage cars if it meets your needs and performance.

People tend to overlook Hybrids on an economic basis, but why when it comes down tothe macroeconomics, it just makes sense?

 

[Rio Rebel]

You seemed to blow over a very important point that MiataNC brought up:

All your formula tells you is whether to buy a hybrid, or buy YOUR car (new)...because you're not comparing a hybrid to its gas counterpart.

If you are looking at a hybrid and want a net cost of ownership comparison, you should be comparing the hybrid to other comparable cars that you would buy. For example, if you are interested in the Civic hybrid, why wouldn't you compare it to a regular Civic?

Given that the mileage difference is not so drastic when you compare other economical gas-only cars, you might come to a different conclusion. And when you throw in higher repair costs (which you have to consider, given that you're talking about putting 200,000 miles on this car), it probably brings you back the other way.

So your math is fine, but your variables need tweaking.

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel
You seemed to blow over a very important point that MiataNC brought up:

All your formula tells you is whether to buy a hybrid, or buy YOUR car (new)...because you're not comparing a hybrid to its gas counterpart.

If you are looking at a hybrid and want a net cost of ownership comparison, you should be comparing the hybrid to other comparable cars that you would buy. For example, if you are interested in the Civic hybrid, why wouldn't you compare it to a regular Civic?

Given that the mileage difference is not so drastic when you compare other economical gas-only cars, you might come to a different conclusion. And when you throw in higher repair costs (which you have to consider, given that you're talking about putting 200,000 miles on this car), it probably brings you back the other way.

So your math is fine, but your variables need tweaking.

Have hybrid cars proven to be more costly to maintain/repair? I haven't seen any evidence that they cost any more than a normal car.

 

[Rio Rebel]

We know the battery is significant (as in, a couple thousand or more), and it has a finite life. And it just makes sense that it will be more costly to repair some things, since only certain mechanics will be capable of repairing that technology.

You're right - there isn't much data, since they haven't been around that long.

 

[iamwiz82]

Originally posted by: Rio Rebel
We know the battery is significant (as in, a couple thousand or more), and it has a finite life. And it just makes sense that it will be more costly to repair some things, since only certain mechanics will be capable of repairing that technology.

You're right - there isn't much data, since they haven't been around that long.

11 model years for the Prius, and from what I have been told, 0 warranty repairs on them.

I think the highest mileage Prius out there now is in the mid 300s with no battery failure. Batteries can be purchased on ebay for $500-$1000, or directly from Toyota for $2500.