In an attempt to enchance the logical part of this debate, i'm gonna make an attempt to put out what evidence we have on global warming.
Let it be known, that i believe in global warming, or atleast, i did untill i wrote this little post. This is the way of logics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png
The measure of the average temperature the last 5.5 million years, found by "measurements from 57 globally distributed deep sea sediment cores." They checked them for a oxygen isotpe: "The measured quantity is oxygen isotope fractionation in benthic foraminifera, which serves as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheets."
Then compared them to the last 420k years of measurements gotten from the Vostok ice-cores. "The observed isotope variations are very similar in shape to the temperature variations recorded at Vostok, Antarctica during the 420 kyr for which that record exists."
And they thereby reach an average gloabl temperature. The average is set to be around 1950.
What's interesting about this graph (apart from the temperatures we get from the last 5.5 million years) is the fact that there are some very distinct cycles in temperature. Lets just copy paste it so you have what he says:
"Labels are added to indicate regions where 100 kyr and 41 kyr cyclicity is observed. These periodicities match periodic changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity and obliquity respectively, and have been previously established by other studies (not relying on orbital tuning)." For further information on that look at this wiki page.
Now we have the average temperature of the old days, now look at it these days.
Here the data is.
We see a very sharp peak at the end, nearer our time! Now, this does not mean anything, as we do not have the same average as the first graph, atleast i can't see if we do. Not to specific numbers, only by estimating that the 1950 is estimated zero.
But note that all measurements of temperatures show this increase.
The increase is shown here and here, the latter is just a more detailed version of the second.
This page has this data on the temperature for the last few hundred years. Here we can see two things:
The first is that the average is set to cirka 1950.
The second is that the average temperature last year (2004) was 0.455 above average (1950) level. And if we compare this to the first graph we saw in my post, we see that this is an average that has not been seen atleast in the last 5.5 million years.
Now lets examine Co2 outlets, that this is something that i have seen many comments about, especially i remember the ones saying we do not produce nearly as much as what volcanoes produce.
Now look at this graph. It clearly shows a rise in Co2 contents in the atmosphere, which was averagely normal around year 1800, but then started rising. Dramatically.
Now, lets dig this page. Look at the atmosphere part of it. And i quote:
"The initial carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of the young Earth was produced by volcanic activity; this was essential for a warm and stable climate conducive to life. Volcanic activity now releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year. Volcanic releases are about 1% of the amount which is released by human activities."
Another thing related is global cooling which was big. And it certainly appears that it might have actually made sense. But since we didn't know about global warming back then, we worried for nothing.
And this shows that some scientists fear that the reason we've not felt global warming that much, is because of the dust in the atmosphere, and that the climate models today are wrong, because we didn't know how much of an impact it created.
Now lets move to the only thing that i see may have some validity! Sun spots.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation_theory
From what i can gather from those 2 pages, it is hard, if not impossible, to say what's controlling our current weather.
But what i can gather, is that the solar activity has a major role on the average temperature of our dear atmosphere. But what you will notice, is that since the sixties the solar activity has stayed somewhat the same, If not reduced. But the average temperature has increased "dramatically".
Conclusion:
The earths temperature is going up and down as shown in the first graph. We are on the top of one such wave, and now it looks like it keeps going. Because during the past 5.5 million years we have never seen a average temperature this high. And for atleast 420k years of recorded history Co2 has never been as high as it is now.
Now, the fact that this happens at the same time the suns acticity is hitting a high, can mean two different things.
Either that the sun is responsible for this. Or that this is just a coincidence, but it still has something to do with it.
What i have concluded from the data i have seen today, is that there have been some small deviations in solar activity and temperature rise. And it's unlikely, at best, that our sun has suddenly run amok, and increased the temperature in our atmopshere over the last decades.
But maybe this is yet another cyclus of the sun that coincided with our current time?
My end comment will have to be that global warming looks to be real, but that our sun might be responsible for it. There's just too many maybe's when we're talking about the suns influence.
So my opinion would be that we take our precautions, and, for now, pretend that global warming is a fact. Because it might show that the sun is responsible for it in the future, but the case might turn out otherwise.
Disclaimer:
This post is not scientific, i do not have every piece of data ever collected. Therefore it will be much to my joy if any of you would find some data, especially regarding sunspots/solar-activity and more specific temperatures during the last few thousand years.
My conviction is, allthough, that the data i need to form a solid judgement is available, i cannot imagine else. But it's a big world, and many people have many interests.
Let it be known, that i believe in global warming, or atleast, i did untill i wrote this little post. This is the way of logics.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Five_Myr_Climate_Change.png
The measure of the average temperature the last 5.5 million years, found by "measurements from 57 globally distributed deep sea sediment cores." They checked them for a oxygen isotpe: "The measured quantity is oxygen isotope fractionation in benthic foraminifera, which serves as a proxy for the total global mass of glacial ice sheets."
Then compared them to the last 420k years of measurements gotten from the Vostok ice-cores. "The observed isotope variations are very similar in shape to the temperature variations recorded at Vostok, Antarctica during the 420 kyr for which that record exists."
And they thereby reach an average gloabl temperature. The average is set to be around 1950.
What's interesting about this graph (apart from the temperatures we get from the last 5.5 million years) is the fact that there are some very distinct cycles in temperature. Lets just copy paste it so you have what he says:
"Labels are added to indicate regions where 100 kyr and 41 kyr cyclicity is observed. These periodicities match periodic changes in Earth's orbital eccentricity and obliquity respectively, and have been previously established by other studies (not relying on orbital tuning)." For further information on that look at this wiki page.
Now we have the average temperature of the old days, now look at it these days.
Here the data is.
We see a very sharp peak at the end, nearer our time! Now, this does not mean anything, as we do not have the same average as the first graph, atleast i can't see if we do. Not to specific numbers, only by estimating that the 1950 is estimated zero.
But note that all measurements of temperatures show this increase.
The increase is shown here and here, the latter is just a more detailed version of the second.
This page has this data on the temperature for the last few hundred years. Here we can see two things:
The first is that the average is set to cirka 1950.
The second is that the average temperature last year (2004) was 0.455 above average (1950) level. And if we compare this to the first graph we saw in my post, we see that this is an average that has not been seen atleast in the last 5.5 million years.
Now lets examine Co2 outlets, that this is something that i have seen many comments about, especially i remember the ones saying we do not produce nearly as much as what volcanoes produce.
Now look at this graph. It clearly shows a rise in Co2 contents in the atmosphere, which was averagely normal around year 1800, but then started rising. Dramatically.
Now, lets dig this page. Look at the atmosphere part of it. And i quote:
"The initial carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of the young Earth was produced by volcanic activity; this was essential for a warm and stable climate conducive to life. Volcanic activity now releases about 130 to 230 teragrams (145 million to 255 million short tons) of carbon dioxide each year. Volcanic releases are about 1% of the amount which is released by human activities."
Another thing related is global cooling which was big. And it certainly appears that it might have actually made sense. But since we didn't know about global warming back then, we worried for nothing.
And this shows that some scientists fear that the reason we've not felt global warming that much, is because of the dust in the atmosphere, and that the climate models today are wrong, because we didn't know how much of an impact it created.
Now lets move to the only thing that i see may have some validity! Sun spots.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_activity
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation_theory
From what i can gather from those 2 pages, it is hard, if not impossible, to say what's controlling our current weather.
But what i can gather, is that the solar activity has a major role on the average temperature of our dear atmosphere. But what you will notice, is that since the sixties the solar activity has stayed somewhat the same, If not reduced. But the average temperature has increased "dramatically".
Conclusion:
The earths temperature is going up and down as shown in the first graph. We are on the top of one such wave, and now it looks like it keeps going. Because during the past 5.5 million years we have never seen a average temperature this high. And for atleast 420k years of recorded history Co2 has never been as high as it is now.
Now, the fact that this happens at the same time the suns acticity is hitting a high, can mean two different things.
Either that the sun is responsible for this. Or that this is just a coincidence, but it still has something to do with it.
What i have concluded from the data i have seen today, is that there have been some small deviations in solar activity and temperature rise. And it's unlikely, at best, that our sun has suddenly run amok, and increased the temperature in our atmopshere over the last decades.
But maybe this is yet another cyclus of the sun that coincided with our current time?
My end comment will have to be that global warming looks to be real, but that our sun might be responsible for it. There's just too many maybe's when we're talking about the suns influence.
So my opinion would be that we take our precautions, and, for now, pretend that global warming is a fact. Because it might show that the sun is responsible for it in the future, but the case might turn out otherwise.
Disclaimer:
This post is not scientific, i do not have every piece of data ever collected. Therefore it will be much to my joy if any of you would find some data, especially regarding sunspots/solar-activity and more specific temperatures during the last few thousand years.
My conviction is, allthough, that the data i need to form a solid judgement is available, i cannot imagine else. But it's a big world, and many people have many interests.
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