Y2K - used as proof that scientists are unreliable

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CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
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Originally posted by: wacki
A lot of MD's do research. Heck, I've even seen a 16 year old kid do Ph.D. level research. And Crichton has even done research. So lets just dispense with the nit picking ok?
I know MDs do reasearch. I work in a research lab at a medical school. My advisor has both MD and PhD. There are probably 25 MD researchers in my department. But there are also probably 500 MDs who do not do research in the same hospital. That, and who said anything about research? 'Scientists' are not the same thing as researchers. This is yet another manifestation of your fundamental misunderstanding. You could be a 'research scientist' or you could be a 'quality control scientist' or you could be a 'water quality technician', all which would fall under the umbrella of being a 'scientist', yet only one of them actually does research.
No. What you are demonstrating is that you are being an anal retentive prude arguing semantics. Anyone that does an experiment can be considered a "scientist" even if it's only for 5 minutes. What you don't seem to understand is that a lot of people simply aren't going to understand why Crichton isn't qualified to comment on certain fields of science (or even certain subjects his medical background is relevant to) when his arguments seem to make a lot of sense to the layman. So either help me find the flaws in Crichtons Y2K argument or get out of this thread. As of right now you are wasting my time on stupid semantic bullshit and contributing nothing useful.
See above. Until you understand the terms you are throwing around, there is no point trying to argue anything further. The fact that you say you've seen a 16-year-old do 'PhD level research' is a laugh and verifies my previous assessment of your being in high school. I do PhD-level research. It's a full-time job, something I doubt you know much about, and not something any 16-year-old would have time for. The fact that you can't even find the flaws in Crichton's argument and are asking for help just makes it that much funnier. You've already decided that he's wrong, but you don't know why. You just know that, somewhere along the line, someone who you deemed an authority figure said he was wrong. Therefore, he's utterly wrong beyond reckoning. You don't have the knowledge to assess his claims yourself, yet you've already arrived at your conclusions. This at least demonstrates beyond any doubt that you fit none of your broad definitions of 'scientist'.
 

imported_inspire

Senior member
Jun 29, 2006
986
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Originally posted by: wacki
Originally posted by: inspire
What I was driving at is that researchers tend to pontificate and prophesy far too much on the results of their experiments; more colloquially - they pimp out their conclusions to the media and politics to get attention and funding.

If you are talking about people like Einstein and Carl Sagan, then you are correct. however, if you are talking about the National Academy of Sciences (the only people you should listen to) then you couldn't be farther from the truth. They tend to speak far more clinically than is for their own good.

If the cycle is going to stop, it has to stop with the researchers. Unfortunately, with the way scientific research works, that's not something that's likely to happen.

What? I really don't see how this has anything to do with reality. There is no comparison between Inhofe's "junk science" campaign and the National Academy of Sciences.

Then you're not getting what I'm saying. The government funds research. And 'unsuccessful' studies are usually not published, which leads noobs in the government to believe that there's 'not much getting done', which means less grant money. So, there's economic influence to fudge that p-value of 0.0519 or use Gehan's Generalized Wilcoxon Test when the Log-Rank Test is more apporpriate.

There is undue economic influence on the validity of research. I wasn't comparing Junk Science with the NAS, so why don't you stop this crusade you're trying to wage behind the guise of a legitimate arguement. Thanks.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
881
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The fact that you say you've seen a 16-year-old do 'PhD level research' is a laugh and verifies my previous assessment of your being in high school.

Alia Sabur was in the nanophotronics Phd program at Drexel University at the age of 14. She isn't the person I worked with but this simply proves my point that what you are calling impossible is beyond a doubt possible. You are flat wrong on this one.

You don't have the knowledge to assess his claims yourself, yet you've already arrived at your conclusions. This at least demonstrates beyond any doubt that you fit none of your broad definitions of 'scientist'.

No, I'm simply asking questions. Unlike you I'm simply trying to learn about Y2K. I am simply testing somebody else's hypothesis (i.e. not mine) with empirical falsifiability like any good scientist does. You are contributing nothing of any value. Go away please.



 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
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Originally posted by: wacki
Alia Sabur was in the nanophotronics Phd program at Drexel University at the age of 14. She isn't the person I worked with but this simply proves my point that what you are calling impossible is beyond a doubt possible. You are flat wrong on this one.
It's pretty clear to me that you don't know much about research in any form. You've spent the majority of your energy in this thread saying how much scientists suck, how useless they are, and how trivial their work is. You tried to demean them further by saying that you've seen a 16-year-old doing PhD research, to which I said 'shens'. Then, you find one teenager doing PhD research and use her as a shining example of why scientists are worthless?
No, I'm simply asking questions. Unlike you I'm simply trying to learn about Y2K. I am simply testing somebody else's hypothesis (i.e. not mine) with empirical falsifiability like any good scientist does.
Liar.
So either help me find the flaws in Crichtons Y2K argument or get out of this thread.
You are contributing nothing of any value. Go away please.
You come into the 'Highly Technical' forum, which one would assume (correctly) is largely populated with scientists and engineers, repeatedly demean them, then tell us to go away? That deserves a :cookie:.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
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And for all you people trying to educate me on the definition of a scientist I suggest you read this article from the most respected scientific journal in the world:

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/284/5411/55

Not bad for a goverment/history major. The rules of Karl Popper are what defines science not a piece of paper. So again go away and stop wasting my time on semantics.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
881
0
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You've spent the majority of your energy in this thread saying how much scientists suck, how useless they are, and how trivial their work is.

lol ok. That's why I say: "National Academy of Sciences (the only people you should listen to) ". Are you on crack?

You tried to demean them further by saying that you've seen a 16-year-old doing PhD research, to which I said 'shens'. Then, you find one teenager doing PhD research and use her as a shining example of why scientists are worthless?

WTF. That's not what I'm saying at all. You have to be a troll. There is no way someone can be this stupid to consistently interpret what I'm saying as the exact opposite. Again I'm simply attacking Crichton and defending the consesnus while trying to learn about Y2K. Where the hell are the mods. Ban this idiot.
 

imported_inspire

Senior member
Jun 29, 2006
986
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This isn't the place or setting to attack Crichton. There's plenty of other journals besides Science and Nature that are completely legitimate. The definition of a scientist is not a trivial matter, but in the context you originally posed the question, it's ancillary.

EDIT: Not trying to bash you wacki, it's just that this isn't the typical course of threads in HT, and I think those things I listed are the reasons why...
 

Xyo II

Platinum Member
Oct 12, 2005
2,177
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Maybe you would do better to find information on Y2K yourself since you didn't bother to click my links, and instead you demanded that others do the work for you. You would do better to link an article with Crichton's argument before the senate committee, like this, so that you don't sound like a raving idiot.
You argued:
Originally posted by: wacki
But didn't experts predict bad things too? Crichton is infamous for quoting people that have little or no credibility just so he can prove a point.

and then

however, if you are talking about the National Academy of Sciences (the only people you should listen to)

and then argue:

Originally posted by: wacki
Anyone that does an experiment can be considered a "scientist" even if it's only for 5 minutes.

and then link an article about amateur scientists. You could simply state in your first post, without the "Y2K-proof that scientists are worthless", that you are curious as to what happened during Y2K, and want to learn about what happened and why. Just throwing out names and bashing them doesn't really help.
like:
Originally posted by: wacki
His committee hearing was based off of lies and misconceptions.

The hearing was about how the government should decide how scientific data should be considered valid for making policies. Apparently, if you have any data that goes against the NAS you are spewing lies and misconceptions?

Originally posted by: wacki
I get this argument a lot. People say we shouldn't listen to scientists about all sorts of things because they couldn't get Y2k right. Heck even Michael Crichton made this argument in a Senate committee hearing.

I don't see that argument anywhere in the hearing record.

Anandtech Moderator
Flame wars, flame bait, blatant fanboy type posts and personal attacks are strictly forbidden; off-topic posts are likely to be moved or locked.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
881
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Apparently, if you have any data that goes against the NAS you are spewing lies and misconceptions?

No. My absolute statement is an oversimplification to cut through the bullshit. As I said before the consensus is a very good guide for the layman. Nothing I've said about amateur scientists contradicts that. Anyone can do research. Data is data but unless you are an expert you simply can't rely on any random "scientist". There are too many psychos or even frauds hired by Exxon mobil and Tobacco companies to listen to anyone with a Ph.D. Some people like Sagan can be good at one thing but a complete loon at another. That is why the consensus is important. That is the basic point I've been trying to get across. It amazes me that I'm getting attacked for saying this.


I don't see that argument anywhere in the hearing record.

There are a lot of things crichton said that aren't in the record. In the video of the hearing he says climate models vary by 300%. That isn't in the text record but it's on video. Again this is a misconception on his part. This isn't the only thing he said during his testimony that is false.

He makes the Y2K argument in *text* here:
http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html
 

Xyo II

Platinum Member
Oct 12, 2005
2,177
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Originally posted by: wacki
I don't see that argument anywhere in the hearing record.

There are a lot of things crichton said that aren't in the record. In the video of the hearing he says climate models vary by 300%. That isn't in the text record but it's on video. Again this is a misconception on his part. This isn't the only thing he said during his testimony that is false.

He makes the Y2K argument in *text* here:
http://www.crichton-official.com/speeches/complexity/complexity.html

Ah, thank you for the full statement. It's fairly obvious that he uses broken logic and unverified information to make points, but as I said before, he is not a scientist. He is sharing his educated political views concerning science and the shortcomings of the general public reacting to bad information and advice from those calling themselves "experts".

Originally posted by: wacki
Crichton is wrong about a lot of things and I suspect he might be wrong about Y2K as well. I'm simply trying to learn right now.

He wasn't wrong about Y2K, he makes some valid points with it. He uses it towards his point that very large topics have been analyzed wrongly in the past on a mass scale, and it is very possible that global warming could be one of those topics. What he was wrong in doing was using completely unrelated topics to show that predictions of world warming are likely to be false. He doesn't use any science here, only past evidence of our limited understanding on topics used to make predictions to convice the committee to whatever end that he has basis for his point.
Basically, he said "we were sloppy in the past, so we could be being sloppy right now", which is hardly the reasonable or ethical way to make sensible conjectures. Having said that, I motion for this thread to be locked as it looks like more of a rant than a question. Next time, try making the point to your thread more concise.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
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but as I said before, he is not a scientist.

Since everyone seems to be all bent up on this point, I have to ask. What is *your* definition of a scientist?

 

blackllotus

Golden Member
May 30, 2005
1,875
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Originally posted by: wacki
I guess what I asking is, what did the leading experts predict with regard to Y2K? Is there such a thing as peer-review on this topic?

Their was no "official" prediction for Y2K, and those that attempted to create them were unqualified (unless, of course, they actually did analyze hundreds of millions of lines of code to reach their conclusion).

Originally posted by: CycloWizard
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm getting the feeling that you're a high schooler. Probably from a very wealthy family if you're from Fishers. Which reminds me that most wealthy high school students smoke weed because they have nothing better to do with their time like, say, work. Which reminds me of the movie 'Half Baked'. Which reminds me of when the character Brian says 'Well, they must have forms laying around. I mean, they are SCIENTISTS.' Then Thurgood says 'What the f*** are you talkin about man?" Because even though Thurgood is high, he realizes that calling someone a 'scientist' doesn't really mean anything.

If I ever bother to add something to my signature this will be at the top of my list :p
 

DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Mar 5, 2001
49,601
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www.slatebrookfarm.com
Originally posted by: wacki
I get this argument a lot. People say we shouldn't listen to scientists about all sorts of things because they couldn't get Y2k right. Heck even Michael Crichton made this argument in a Senate committee hearing. After reading parts of Michael Crichtons book "Travels" it's obvious that he is a complete loon that believes in the paranormal, spoon bending, etc. And despite his medical degree, he amazingly doesn't seem to understand evolution or even read peer-review journals on mosquito resistance to DDT. So it's easy to dismiss him but it's hard to dismiss the Y2k argument. So, what went wrong?

Okay... I just went through the entire thread, and simply turned back to the original post to try to figure out what kind of train ride this was.

First, to be a little blunt (pun intended), you must be smoking the wacki tobacki if you believe that having an MD implies that you'd be reading peer-review journals on mosquito resistance to DDT. There are more peer-review journals related to medicine and biology than anyone would ever have time to read.

Second, and I'm just going to generalize here, but much of the mass-hysteria of the public at large about y2k fears weren't driven by scientists, but rather were driven by the media who (in case you didn't notice) have embraced sensationalism for the past decade or so. Please provide this thread with a link to an article or two that warned of severe y2k problems - and was written by a "scientist" rather than a journalist. I've known many journalists... most struggled to pass kiddy math during their senior year in college and needed a tutor to get through the most basic intro to science class. I don't mean to be offensive to them; I certainly cannot write with the eloquence that many of them possess. But, nor can they really grasp many concepts, particularly when those concepts relate to statistics.
 

Pulsar

Diamond Member
Mar 3, 2003
5,224
306
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Wacki, you seem to be at a loss to understand why many of the extremely technical folks on this forum are taking pot shots at you. I'll try to explain.

You said:
>>I get this argument a lot. People say we shouldn't listen to scientists about all
>>sorts of things because they couldn't get Y2k right. Heck even Michael
>>Crichton made this argument in a Senate committee hearing. After reading
>>parts of Michael Crichtons book "Travels" it's obvious that he is a complete
>>loon that believes in the paranormal, spoon bending, etc. And despite his
>>medical degree, he amazingly doesn't seem to understand evolution or even
>>read peer-review journals on mosquito resistance to DDT. So it's easy to
>>dismiss him but it's hard to dismiss the Y2k argument. So, what went wrong?

First. Please directly quote Michael Crichton. Michael Crichton is a fiction writer with a medical degree. He is an absolute EXPERT at researching his particular fiction subject and picking references from perfectly acceptable scientific journals to prove bits and pieces of what he is writing. As everyone knows, a lie that contains a bit of truth is far more convincing.

As such he was the PERFECT person to give commentary on what has been going on in the scientific community.

The man is obviously quite intelligent. Calling him a loon does nothing to prove your point. Point of fact, his fiction writing shows a dedication bordering on insanity when it comes to researching his topic. Take a look at the number of articles, journals, and other publicatinos he quoted in "Prey". Calling a very intelligent man a loon simply hurts your credibility.

As someone pointed out, a person with an MD is not some all-knowing person. Why would someone who specializes in heart medicine even read journals concerning evolution and DDT? Calling them idiots or loons would be equally as foolhardy.

A number of people here have told you EXACTLY what happened during Y2k. We are not going to provide dozens of links for you to write your term paper. Find them yourself.

#1 Programmers point out that there was a potential glitch in software. It was not a revelation, and was not unexpected. It was intentional.
#2 Companies whose components were mission critical to their success began updating their systems.
#3 Lawyers and liability forced other companies to update as well
#4 The media hyped it beyond all belief. Not once did they say "here are the companies that have or have not updated, etc". They simply kept focussing on what would happen if major systems like air traffic control completely collapsed, or banking disinegrated. Oddly enough these were the companies who updated first....

If you want to know what went "wrong" then look at any sensationalistic over-hyped thing the media reports out on. They get stories wrong 50-75% of the time. Look at the OJ trial, Jon Benet recently, y2K less recently... look at their reporting around the time of the election the last time around, when one major network declared a presidential winner and was WRONG.

You continue to put your foot in your mouth with every new post. Please stop.

Finally, you say "wasn't it true that nothing went wrong in areas where nobody fixed the bug". No, it isn't true. Anywhere that bug existed, date stamps would be incorrect. This isn't magical. Important systems were fixed prior to y2k. Those that weren't fixed obviously weren't very important.

The Media picks their experts the same way political parties do. And the media experts are the ones you end up listening to. Just as biased and wrong as all the other "paid" experts.
 

Jeff7

Lifer
Jan 4, 2001
41,596
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Following the horrendous technology crash of 2000 after the Y2K bug caused significant economic damage, AT user "wacki" posts a thread in AT's Highly Technical forum, titled "Y2K - proof that scientists are worthless."
:)

Instead, it would say "I get this argument a lot. People say we shouldn't listen to scientists because they never even saw Y2K coming." Or "...they never thought Y2K would be any big deal."


My guess on why we had all the "Oh teh noes!!! Armageddon!!!!!" stuff was that the media loves that sort of stuff. So the computer scientists report that there are going to be some glitches, and at the very worst, it could cause elevators to fail, and planes to crash to the ground, and milk to go sour before its expiration date, even before it's been opened. Which will the media report on - a chance of some odd glitches, or Doom&Gloom&We're all going to die?
(Looks like LSDPulsar beat me to it on that idea.:eek:)
 

Atheus

Diamond Member
Jun 7, 2005
7,313
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Originally posted by: Einstein Element
"computer science" is a very techinical field, but it is as much science as cooking is.

If I come up with a theory on machine learning (for example) which states that a machine should behave in a certain way, then I build said machine, and generate a set of results from it's actual behaviour, how is that not science?
 

spike spiegal

Member
Mar 13, 2006
196
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Here's what Wikipedia says about Mr Crichton:

"an American author, film producer, film director, and television producer. His best-known works are techno-thriller novels, films and television programs."

So basically, if I want to know how to shoot a CGI T-Rex or an out of control robot gunslinger, he's the expert.

Yet we're pulling Einstein, who is perhaps the greatest 'ouf of the box' thinker in the history of modern civilization into this? Shame on everybody. I may have disagreed with Sagan's political views, but he was still a brilliant astronomer and not a drama queen like Chrichton is.

Like the guy above said, Y2K hype was pushed by lawyers and greedy IT reps who all wanted to cash in. I was working for a Pharmaceutical company in 98-99' and they had over 60million invested in Y2K testing. I actually saw mechanical scales with 'Y2K certified' stickers on them.

When Y2K turned out to be a solution in search of a problem the lsahing of corporate IT budgets helped contribute to the technology budget burst in 2000-2001.

If you don't know the difference between a scientist and a researcher, then you shouldn't be talking about it.
 

Schadenfroh

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2003
38,416
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When ever someone brings this up, it sickens me. When I was a child, my father (who worked in information technology) stayed gone many weekends slaving to keep the Y2K "problems" from happening at his place of employment. He would come home late and leave early and when he got back he looked like he was about to die from exhaustion. He did this for a long time and it nearly drove him INSANE from all the work he put into it. Finally, Y2K came and the company had no problems thanks to him and his coworkers and he was able to return to a normal work schedule, but he was still physically sick for a few months after that.
 

imported_inspire

Senior member
Jun 29, 2006
986
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Can we please just drop the whole thing about Crichton? Especially if we're not going to address him in a context that fits the thread?
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
881
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you must be smoking the wacki tobacki if you believe that having an MD implies that you'd be reading peer-review journals on mosquito resistance to DDT. There are more peer-review journals related to medicine and biology than anyone would ever have time to read.

He's been campaigning in front of large quantities of people/politicians while using DDT as an example. I would think it's pretty important he reviews the peer review literature. Apparently you don't.

Please provide this thread with a link to an article or two that warned of severe y2k problems - and was written by a "scientist" rather than a journalist.

This is the whole point of the thread. I'm trying to find out what reputable scientists predicted. An exact quote to an exact person or organization. The fact that you are asking me to post something that's not from a journalist shows that you simply don't understand what I'm asking. I will repeat again: I DON"T CARE ABOUT THE JOURNALISTS. I'm simply trying to find out what the leading *impartial* authorities said. There may not be an "official" view. However, I'm wondering which people or groups would be as close to an official representation from the scientists as you can get. I'm not familiar enough with the CS industry to figure out who would be the most reliable experts on this subject.


There is this guy:

http://www.everything2000.com/news/computer/y2kmoneywellspent.asp
Fernando Burbano, the State Department's chief information officer


However, he has a conflict of interest and there is no way a man in his position will say it's a waste. So this doesn't help much. Wikipedia's entry isn't much help at all.

And the guys quoted in this article:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/585013.stm

Also seem to be in positions that are conflicts of interest. So it's hard to tell.
 

wacki

Senior member
Oct 30, 2001
881
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actually saw mechanical scales with 'Y2K certified' stickers on them.

I would love to have a picture of that. Were these new scales or just some scale that some tech dude slapped a sticker on?