Ok, there are a number of misconceptions floating around in this thread, the first of which is that having deep pipelines makes the Xeon faster than the Opteron. That couldn't be farther from the truth as you'll see
here and
here. Having a deep pipeline is what hurts the Xeon, even more so now that it's using the Nocona core. I'm sure you've seen how bad Prescott performs in a number of situations. If there's one thing server apps don't like, it's deep pipelines and pipeline stalls. Secondly, what exactly do you do for a living that would allow you to beta test Nocona? I find that hard to believe unless you're associated with a publication or hardware site. Until I see it mentioned elsewhere, I'm sticking with what ppl are currently saying in the industry: Nocona's 64-bit performance "sucks".
I'm glad you think HT is an innovation. I'm sure you'll be pleased to know that AMD holds the patent for that technology. So, who's innovating again?
🙂 As to the dual-core issue, don't expect anything more than that. AMD may surprise you, but given the size of a dual-core Opteron, adding features that won't be used is wasteful. You would be correct in assuming that there will be things that the Xeon is good at and the Opteron is good at. It's always been like and will most likely continue to stay like, at least until the 64-bit transition takes place, as we've seen a number of huge boosts in the encoding realm from moving to a 64-bit environment. And AMD
is thinking beyond x86. When they made AMD64 they threw out a lot of unnecessary stuff while extending the architecture. What a lot of ppl don't seem to realize is that x86 is here to stay. There have been numerous attempts to dethrone it and it's still going strong. The
only way x86 would ever disappear is if an ISA was capable of doing near-perfect emulation. Chances are that's not going to happen.
Now, you speak of delays. How many times was the Itanium delayed? What about Intel's 90nm process and the "fastest ramp in product history"? How about Prescott, Nocona, and Dothan? Everyone has delays, it's a fact of life. To single out AMD as being the only one is asinine. You also need to take manufacturing into account. AMD has one fab, that's it. Intel, conversely, has around 10 or so devoted to just processors. In addition to this, both companies, one more so than the other, can't just ramp up clock speeds whenever they feel like it.
Btw, they can't die shrink it any further, or rather, they can, but they won't anytime soon. It's the die shrink that caused all the problems in the first place. I place the blame partially on SSi and partially on Intel being too stubborn to use SOI. By the time Intel's 65nm process comes online, the P4 will be dead and the PM will be the flagship.
Now, on to the Itanium. It's not going to run at 3GHz anytime soon. If you've noticed, Intel has pretty much been capped at 1.5GHz or so with that processor. Even the third generation version, Madison, is only getting a 200MHz bump. Intel continues to do nothing but throw large amounts of cache on the chip. The only real change that Madison is receiving is that it will be dual-core. Otherwise, it's just the same old formula and the Itanium is big enough as it is. Do you realize how much heat it puts out and you expect Intel to pull 2-3GHz with it? Not happening, at least not until they do a serious die shrink. Itanium may have been a threat had it actually gathered momentum but it's as good as dead in the water. Ppl are quickly abandoning it now that they see Opteron is more than a capable solution. And that's supposed to threaten the Opteron? It should also be mentioned that Itanium is not the only processor that can link 128 processors. Opteron has the same capability. I need only mention Red Storm and other clusters to indicate that. Itanium is a multibillion dollar failure despite what proponents and Intel will tell you. Intel has barely managed to sell any of them. Hell, the Opteron has already out sold in and is continuing to gain momentum. And you know what the final nail in the coffin is? That it's been said that MS will be dropping IA-64 support completely. Now, why would they do that? Because there's only room for one 64-bit architecture and Tier 1 OEMs have chosen it.
And, finally, AMD isn't going anywhere. They hit the bottom so many times I've lost count. And each time they've come back, with this most recent one being the strongest. AMD isn't the only one adopting the competition's technology, as I've mentioned elsewhere. Intel has adopted AMD64, what will arguably be the ISA for years to come. It should be said that despite this, AMD, nor Intel for that matter, will ever receive money from one another because of their licensing agreement. Despite what's been said year in and year out, AMD is here to stay.