Originally posted by: erwos
I don't understand how you're making this into a criticism of Natal, though. Wii Fit and GH/RB sell insanely well, and Microsoft's in-house developers are rather competent. There's no reason that Microsoft couldn't produce something that combined Wii Sports and Fit, but like a hundred times better. 🙂
Don't get me wrong...I think Natal will be genuinely cool when it drops, but I just dont see it gaining widespread acceptance. I'm not criticizing it, I prefer the sony tech, but this is still badass in it's own right. I just dont think MS has that special something nintendo has when it comes to the mass market, no matter how hard they seem to try.
Well, yes, if it's unsuccessful, no one will develop for it. But your assumption that it will be unsuccessful because of lack of third-party support because it's unsuccessful is, um, circular logic.
It's not circular logic, it's a vicious cycle that all expensive peripherals end up falling into. People don't want to buy it until there's a good reason to, which is either one killer app or a multitude of other good reasons. Third party developers wont develop until people buy it, so it all hinges on that first party killer app. And even then, when the choice is still between making a game for the 15 million consoles without it, and the 1-2 million with it, that becomes a pretty hard proposition for third parties, and if there's a company that relies on 3rd party more than any other, its MS.
Even if they were to bundle it for cheap, and it had that killer app, by the time it comes out and it starts achieving some sort of critical mass, it'll still take any third party dev a good year to make decent software, by that time, the next xbox will be on the horizon, and the party will be over just as it was getting started.
I think most people would have said the same of Nintendo a few years ago. But a really compelling product could shift the scales, especially if the perception that many casuals just think of the Wii as the "Wii Sports box" is correct. Microsoft could really bring a lot to the table with a $200-$250 bundle.
Time will tell, but the problem here is that MS is playing catchup, and theyve fallen flat on their face so far with every other attempt at casual gaming...you never know...natal could end up being another "we're in the movies" nightmare instead of something cool. If the best thing theyve got lined up when it drops is air steering, elephant painting and flagellation ball, I'm not sold.