Alchemize, I'm not reading enough Tom Clancy. Touche. But, I still think ChuckieLand was accurate. The U.S. does not have enough interest in Taiwan to support a takeover supported by a lot of bu11sh1t, like we did in Iraq. Taiwan is far, far, away from us. We don't have bases in the Philippines anymore. When push comes to shove, I'll bet Japan would rather not anger China than not anger us (who, with any sense wouldn't in the same situation). OK, where do we operate from, Australia?
We'd definitely operate from Japan and carrier battle groups. Historically whenever anyone gets forceful over there (i.e. China/North Korea), Japan snuggles in with us. I don't think the question is if Japan would "let us" operate, it's whether or not we'd get involved. My guess is the current administration would, first economically and diplomatically, then quite possibly militarily.
That's why I don't think China would ever try an invasion. They'd pop off a few missles, then get everyone to the table to "save face". China doesn't want to go head to head with the US (yet).
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
Whitling, despite what you may have heard, Taiwan not only has quite a competent military, but also has the benefit of a modern Western arsenal which has, for the last few decades, been augmented by their own weapons development. Missile technology, in particular. The Taiwanese Airforce is also nothing to sneeze at. Are you trying to imply the Taiwanese don't have airfields? I'm aware how vurnerable they are to bombardment, but the Chinese really have a hodgepodge mix of equipment, some of it pretty good, a lot of it several generations old. I do indeed think the Chinese would find it difficult to cross and invade Normandy style all the while weathering a coordinated Taiwanese defense. The referense to distance was made toward a previous assertation that Chinese tanks would just roll into TaiPei. C'mon, I don't have to draw you a picture do I? I'm quite aware of the logistical hurdles we went over in the Gulf Wars - I think it's you who isn't giving that aspect enough consideration in terms of China attacking Taiwan.
If conflict were to erupt, I hold no illusions that China would take Taiwan - however, it would be an extremely costly endeavor on the attackers part. Alchemize is correct about the 'war of attrition' I believe. Do I somehow have my history wrong by noting China's willingness to endure massive casualties in war?
I know that China considers Taiwan a part of China. However it's a contestable thing whether it is or not. I personally have no opinion on it.
I provided the Puerto Rico example as a way that the US was willing to let an area go willingly which the previous poster said we would never allow.
Kage Your history is right noting China's willingness to use attrition as a strategy. Your strategy is wrong if you think we'll fly from Japan. It's about 1000 miles from Southern Japan to Taiwan. I'm not up to current tech specs, perhaps someone will fill us in. But 1000 miles to the target isn't in the cards for fighter support planes. Think for a moment about what you think you know about World War II. Depending on which side of the conspiracy theory you believe, Roosevelt either almost knew about the raid on Pearl Harbor but couldn't get the message there on time or did know about it but needed the outbreak of the war to help in Europe. No we have a market of 750,000 million people or the Taiwanese market. Hey, someone else, probably China, can always learn to make motherboards and cases. You think we'll truck ourselves down to Southeast Asia to defend a small market (without oil resources) like Taiwan.
One additional thing. When you make a statement like "Historically, Japan will hunker down with the U.S., you make me a little crazy. You're talking about the last 60 years of history (to exagerate by a couple of years). IMHO, both Japan and Asia are much better at thinking about the long term. Hey, in China a leader is "elected" for life. The U.S. cannot and will not extend itself that far without one very good reason. Keeping China from taking Taiwan doesn't qualify. It's like why organized crime doesn't shoot cops. It's not that it can't be done or that it can't be done and you get away with it. It's because it isn't worth the trouble. You're 26. In your lifetime you will see China and Taiwan grow closer and closer. I've seen that in my lifetime. Geography isn't everything but geography and culture are.
One additional thing. When you make a statement like "Historically, Japan will hunker down with the U.S., you make me a little crazy. You're talking about the last 60 years of history (to exagerate by a couple of years). IMHO, both Japan and Asia are much better at thinking about the long term. Hey, in China a leader is "elected" for life. The U.S. cannot and will not extend itself that far without one very good reason. Keeping China from taking Taiwan doesn't qualify. It's like why organized crime doesn't shoot cops. It's not that it can't be done or that it can't be done and you get away with it. It's because it isn't worth the trouble. You're 26. In your lifetime you will see China and Taiwan grow closer and closer. I've seen that in my lifetime. Geography isn't everything but geography and culture are.
Taiwan's business leaders will simply not allow it. They poured way too much money into China and will leave Taiwan highly vunerable to an attack. If there is a war, Taiwan will be flattened by an Air Campaign. The United States would have to mobilize its entire Air Force to match. In that event, it would be the world's first Jet v Jet aerial combat with long range missiles. The last major previous engagement with Air Power from both sides was World War II.
Taiwan is independant, but not in name. I doubt they will risk the potential for millions of lives just so they can call themselves "indepedant".
Taiwan is independant, but not in name. I doubt they will risk the potential for millions of lives just so they can call themselves "indepedant".
dexvx, yes, the present system is imperfect, but it works. China gets to think Taiwan belongs to it and Taiwan gets to think it's independent. One little change in a name and, Holy Smoke.
I highly doubt Taiwanese will ever declare independance. The issue always comes up when the election is near, it is just one of the card the Democratic Progressive Party (The party where current President's from) use everytime there is an election to get the votes. There are about 20~30% die hard pro independance people, and it is just a way for DPP to secure those votes. Overall, Taiwanese knows that there is too much to loose if there is an invasion from China, and there will be, if Taiwan declares independance.
Look, every businessman in Taiwan is one way or another tied to China. Taiwan is just an island without much natural resources. All China needs to do is cut off all air/sea access to Taiwan and close all Taiwanese business factory/bank account in China, Taiwan will collapse on its own. They don't have to actually attack Taiwan to paralyze it.
But China would like to take Taiwan via power transfer Hong Kong style to keep the business/commerce intact. That's why they won't do anything to Taiwan unless they have a reason to, and Taiwan declaring independance will be a sure reason.
So don't get yourself all fired up for this. No Taiwan won't declare independance, so China won't attack Taiwan, and even if China do attack Taiwan, there is nothing America can or will do about it. Like Bush demonstrated in Iraq/Korea, American is gonna use force on the easy target only and won't do jack when dealing with countries that actaully have some kind of military presence.
Look, every businessman in Taiwan is one way or another tied to China. Taiwan is just an island without much natural resources. All China needs to do is cut off all air/sea access to Taiwan and close all Taiwanese business factory/bank account in China, Taiwan will collapse on its own. They don't have to actually attack Taiwan to paralyze it.
But China would like to take Taiwan via power transfer Hong Kong style to keep the business/commerce intact. That's why they won't do anything to Taiwan unless they have a reason to, and Taiwan declaring independance will be a sure reason.
So don't get yourself all fired up for this. No Taiwan won't declare independance, so China won't attack Taiwan, and even if China do attack Taiwan, there is nothing America can or will do about it. Like Bush demonstrated in Iraq/Korea, American is gonna use force on the easy target only and won't do jack when dealing with countries that actaully have some kind of military presence.
Pepsei
Lifer
- Dec 14, 2001
- 12,895
- 1
- 0
Who was that Chinese leader that gave up Mongolia? Hmmmm... I wonder....
A lot of people think that US will not use force if China attacks, and I agree, because China's force will overrun the tiny nation in 1-2 days before any help can get there. Yes, Taiwan do have some defensive military equipment, but picture a bear trying to get into the bee's nest.
I like to believe that China will not use force, but then again, I didn't think they would ran over all those students with tanks. "They" hate freedoms there, as in the leaders of the Communist Party.
A lot of people think that US will not use force if China attacks, and I agree, because China's force will overrun the tiny nation in 1-2 days before any help can get there. Yes, Taiwan do have some defensive military equipment, but picture a bear trying to get into the bee's nest.
I like to believe that China will not use force, but then again, I didn't think they would ran over all those students with tanks. "They" hate freedoms there, as in the leaders of the Communist Party.
That was the Soviet-Sino schism. USSR played the part in pretty much forcing Mongolian independance, so it could be a buffer state to China.
I don't know who would win, but that analogy doesn't always work. Didn't Israel defend itself against several larger Arab countries?
kage69
1.you really been brian wash by the extreme independist
so far no nation in the world know there is a nation call TAIWAN
Even Taiwanese people call themself ROC which stand for Republic of China
only about 20-30% extreme independist think there is a nation call Taiwan.
china national name: People republic of China
taiwan national name: Republic of China
they all Call themself China, that is why USA has a 1 China policy. and Taiwan is part of China.
the way i look at it
People Republic of China claim to have Taiwan island
Taiwan (republic of China) used to claim to have entire mainland include mogolia.
2.if my history are correct, Japan take Taiwan from China before WW2, then after WW2 Japan return Taiwan to China. where is this Nation of Taiwan come from?
3. Check USA history Civilwar. it's not just about Free african american, it's also about some states wanting to seperate from USA. which lead to War
1.you really been brian wash by the extreme independist
so far no nation in the world know there is a nation call TAIWAN
Even Taiwanese people call themself ROC which stand for Republic of China
only about 20-30% extreme independist think there is a nation call Taiwan.
china national name: People republic of China
taiwan national name: Republic of China
they all Call themself China, that is why USA has a 1 China policy. and Taiwan is part of China.
the way i look at it
People Republic of China claim to have Taiwan island
Taiwan (republic of China) used to claim to have entire mainland include mogolia.
2.if my history are correct, Japan take Taiwan from China before WW2, then after WW2 Japan return Taiwan to China. where is this Nation of Taiwan come from?
3. Check USA history Civilwar. it's not just about Free african american, it's also about some states wanting to seperate from USA. which lead to War
yes, that's because israel has one of world best army.
and several larger Arab countries is all talk.
so far only arab county that put their words in action when fighting with enemy is parkistan.
ManSnake
Diamond Member
- Oct 26, 2000
- 4,749
- 1
- 0
No one was ran over by a tank during China's pro democracy protest. The PLA shot and killed hundreds of protesters, but they never ran them over. Stop reading tabloids!
Regarding possible war, there will be none. Election time is coming up in Taiwan, A-Bian wants to secure himself another term, thus the talk of independence now.
Pakistan isn't Arab. China isn't exactly a military powerhouse, too... and it's surrounded by countries that probably wouldn't be receptive to Chinese military invading another territory, not that they would retaliate with war or anything.
I just think that the US is having a hard enough time with Iraq after battle, China would probably have a harder time in Taiwan.
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
Whitling, before you start attributing quotes to people, you might want to make sure they actually said whatever it is you hold in contention. I never said anything close to 'the US getting involved via Japan.' In fact, my exact words were Believe it or not, the Dems, Reps, and Indie's all agree that the US would not take military action to interfere.
No need to pummel the obvious, everyone knows what a huge market China represents.
Is someone experiencing a 'senior moment'? I think you're already a little crazy if you're, again, qouting me as saying something I never did. Perhaps you're just confusing and merging posts in this thread, but the above quote seems to point to the previous paragraph, which openly addresses me.
I've been watching Taiwan and China grow closer in the last few years now that you mention it, a trend that I hope continues as a war over official Taiwanese independence would be disastrous for all concerned. Your mafia analogy works quite well I believe.
"kage69
1.you really been brian wash by the extreme independist
so far no nation in the world know there is a nation call TAIWAN
Even Taiwanese people call themself ROC which stand for Republic of China
only about 20-30% extreme independist think there is a nation call Taiwan.
china national name: People republic of China
taiwan national name: Republic of China
they all Call themself China, that is why USA has a 1 China policy. and Taiwan is part of China.
the way i look at it
People Republic of China claim to have Taiwan island
Taiwan (republic of China) used to claim to have entire mainland include mogolia.
2.if my history are correct, Japan take Taiwan from China before WW2, then after WW2 Japan return Taiwan to China. where is this Nation of Taiwan come from?
3. Check USA history Civilwar. it's not just about Free african american, it's also about some states wanting to seperate from USA. which lead to War "
1. Please, pardon my brian being washed. No one is debating the pissing contest China and Taiwan have been involved in the last 50 odd years over who is the legitimate goverment of China. The subsequent bickering over labels and semantics might be a concern for you, but the fact is Taiwan has been on it's own for almost 60 years and doesn't consider itself under Communist rule. Let me guess, you probebly believe North Korea is a Democracy, for the People, and a Republic, right? Maybe too much State run media has affected YOUR brian.
2. Probably around the same time the Taiwanese created their own functioning government, laws, school systems, economy, military, etc. A better question would be, if a country has all of these attributes that were self-imposed, and continued to operate independently for over half a century, why would that not be considered a seperate nation? They appear to be in all but name, and even then only under the threat of an overwhelming attack.
3. I've already stated how your US analogy doesn't apply, perhaps if you knew anything about the US Civil War you'd realize that. Just because you want to compare apples to oranges, it doesn't mean the rest of us have to.
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
"yes, that's because israel has one of world best army.
and several larger Arab countries is all talk.
so far only arab county that put their words in action when fighting with enemy is parkistan"
*waits patiently for Whitling to criticize more views on history*
and several larger Arab countries is all talk.
so far only arab county that put their words in action when fighting with enemy is parkistan"
*waits patiently for Whitling to criticize more views on history*
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
Brian?
edit: wait Red, no, we shouldn't poke fun. It's insensitive to expect someone to have a grasp on English if they want to post in a English forum. Or some knowledge of World history if they're going to cite examples of it. I guess that makes us bastards huh?
edit: wait Red, no, we shouldn't poke fun. It's insensitive to expect someone to have a grasp on English if they want to post in a English forum. Or some knowledge of World history if they're going to cite examples of it. I guess that makes us bastards huh?
Kage69. It seemed obvious to me that you are not a native English speaker (sure hope I'm right about that). It also seemed obvious to me that you confused the English term "Arab" with "Muslim." When I say "obvious," I mean that Red should have realized that you meant "Muslin" instead of "Arab." I'm not sure what your reference to Pakistan is intended to include. It's adversity to India? The struggle over Kashmire? Pakistan hasn't been a country long enough to develop a rich and lengthy history of military confrontation.
But, as an aside about Arab countries. In 1954, Egypt and South Korea had comparable economic structures. Today, those structures are a little different. Egypt does not have the technical capability to produce light bulbs -- and I mean that literally, not figuratively. We know where South Korea stands. The point is, that a society's world view has a profound affect on how they live.
But, as an aside about Arab countries. In 1954, Egypt and South Korea had comparable economic structures. Today, those structures are a little different. Egypt does not have the technical capability to produce light bulbs -- and I mean that literally, not figuratively. We know where South Korea stands. The point is, that a society's world view has a profound affect on how they live.
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
I'll take that all to mean, 'Yes, I'm experiencing one, continous senior moment.' All that which appears 'obvious' to you seems to be the result of you attributing the sayings of others to me. Please, stop this. You haven't even cleared up why you falsely represented my words from before, and then proceed to do it again. Why is this?
YOU'RE NOT MAKING ANY SENSE. Please go back and find the posts you're refering to, then if you could, look slightly ot the left - there you will find the author. Note that I didn't bring Pakistan into anything, I only qouted Chuckieland in an attempt to draw attention to his complete lack of knowledge on history, something you yourself did at the beginging of this thread yet now somehow ignore.
kage69
Lifer
- Jul 17, 2003
- 27,299
- 36,448
- 136
Allow me to break it down real easy-like for ya:
You portrayed me as saying "Your strategy is wrong if you think we'll fly from Japan."
I NEVER SAID THIS.
Then you quoted me as saying "One additional thing. When you make a statement like "Historically, Japan will hunker down with the U.S., you make me a little crazy."
You're already crazy. Again, I DIDN'T SAY ANY OF THAT.
Then you go on to say: "It also seemed obvious to me that you confused the English term "Arab" with "Muslim." When I say "obvious," I mean that Red should have realized that you meant "Muslin" instead of "Arab." I'm not sure what your reference to Pakistan is intended to include. It's adversity to India? The struggle over Kashmire? Pakistan hasn't been a country long enough to develop a rich and lengthy history of military confrontation."
Oh god, take your damn medication old boy! You are either EXTREMELY confused, or blatantly attributing statements from CanOWorms and chuckieland to me, while also working in a liberal amount of your own stuff. Not to mention ignoring it all the first time I pointed it out.
It kind of pisses me off that you can opine with "if we had to depend on your reading of history books to understand history and it's lessons, we'd be in trouble." yet give no justification for it whatsoever, go on to agree with chuckielands faulty comparison, and then completely ignore his great "understanding of history" with the post
"yes, that's because israel has one of world best army.
and several larger Arab countries is all talk.
so far only arab county that put their words in action when fighting with enemy is parkistan."
You're really coming off as a confused, biased, and just plain lost Whitling...
Please feel free to address any or all of this in an attempt to clear this up. I've always considered your input in other threads generally spot-on, insightful, or at the least witty - a stark contrast to this thread I'm sorry to say.
You portrayed me as saying "Your strategy is wrong if you think we'll fly from Japan."
I NEVER SAID THIS.
Then you quoted me as saying "One additional thing. When you make a statement like "Historically, Japan will hunker down with the U.S., you make me a little crazy."
You're already crazy. Again, I DIDN'T SAY ANY OF THAT.
Then you go on to say: "It also seemed obvious to me that you confused the English term "Arab" with "Muslim." When I say "obvious," I mean that Red should have realized that you meant "Muslin" instead of "Arab." I'm not sure what your reference to Pakistan is intended to include. It's adversity to India? The struggle over Kashmire? Pakistan hasn't been a country long enough to develop a rich and lengthy history of military confrontation."
Oh god, take your damn medication old boy! You are either EXTREMELY confused, or blatantly attributing statements from CanOWorms and chuckieland to me, while also working in a liberal amount of your own stuff. Not to mention ignoring it all the first time I pointed it out.
It kind of pisses me off that you can opine with "if we had to depend on your reading of history books to understand history and it's lessons, we'd be in trouble." yet give no justification for it whatsoever, go on to agree with chuckielands faulty comparison, and then completely ignore his great "understanding of history" with the post
"yes, that's because israel has one of world best army.
and several larger Arab countries is all talk.
so far only arab county that put their words in action when fighting with enemy is parkistan."
You're really coming off as a confused, biased, and just plain lost Whitling...
Please feel free to address any or all of this in an attempt to clear this up. I've always considered your input in other threads generally spot-on, insightful, or at the least witty - a stark contrast to this thread I'm sorry to say.
Well, Kage, I'll have to check it later. I will say, however, that when I've made big mistakes on this board, it's in attributing who said what to whom. I'll retrace the thread later and, if appropriate (and I assume you didn't rant and rave in error), I'll apologize for my confusion about who said what.
One of the things that appeals to me about this board is the ability to make "factual" statements with a source that people can evaluate. Obviously there's a small problem with "facts" when half us us believe Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and half us believe that they don't. That's why I think the ability to evaluate a source is important. But your objection to what I said seems capable of a fairly simple evaluation. I'll be back, coming in like March (the month); either as a lamb or as a lion.
One of the things that appeals to me about this board is the ability to make "factual" statements with a source that people can evaluate. Obviously there's a small problem with "facts" when half us us believe Iraq has weapons of mass destruction and half us believe that they don't. That's why I think the ability to evaluate a source is important. But your objection to what I said seems capable of a fairly simple evaluation. I'll be back, coming in like March (the month); either as a lamb or as a lion.
TRENDING THREADS
-
-
Discussion Intel current and future Lakes & Rapids thread- Started by TheF34RChannel
- Replies: 23K
-
Discussion Zen 5 Speculation (EPYC Turin and Strix Point/Granite Ridge - Ryzen 9000)- Started by DisEnchantment
- Replies: 10K
-
Discussion Speculation: Zen 4 (EPYC 4 "Genoa", Ryzen 7000, etc.)- Started by Vattila
- Replies: 13K
-
Discussion Intel Meteor, Arrow, Lunar & Panther Lakes Discussion Threads
- Started by Tigerick
- Replies: 7K
Facebook
Twitter