[WSJ] TSMC is shipping 20nm SOCs to Apple

[Phynaz]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/tsmc-starts-shipping-microprocessors-to-apple-1404991514

Use the Google trick if you don't have a WSJ subscription.

Chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. 2330.TW +0.37% has begun shipping the computing brains used in smartphones and tablets to Apple Inc., AAPL -0.15% highlighting the U.S. company's continued push to diversify its suppliers.

TSMC began shipping its first batch of microprocessors to the Cupertino, Calif., company in the second quarter, people familiar with the matter said, supplanting Samsung Electronics Co. 005930.SE -0.15% , which had a lock on the orders for the chips until last year.

Apple and TSMC have also agreed to work together on more advanced chips next year, according to a person familiar with the situation.

 

[Homeles]

Here we go! Super excited for the brawl that will be happening towards the last quarter of the year.

 

[Fjodor2001]

So when can we expect the Apple products with these 20 nm chips to be available in the shops?

 

[soccerballtux]

yeah I wouldn't trust them as a legit source on this. They might be just talking about the 20nm radios that we've already seen. WSJ is such a joke when it comes to tech

 

[Exophase]

So when can we expect the Apple products with these 20 nm chips to be available in the shops?

Likely September like the last two iPhone releases, or October like the one before it.

 

[AtenRa]

I dont believe they have enough volumes of 20nm SoCs to have a product launch in September/October.
Unless they will do a paper launch.

 

[Roland00Address]

That is kinda cutting it close if they want to use 20nm in the next iphone in less than 90 days isn't it? The last two apple iphone presentations were 9/10/13 and 9/12/12 and the were ready for purchase less than 10 days later. That realistically means the final phone if it uses 20nm parts will be out in 60 days.

Last year they sold 9 million iphone 5s and iphone 5c during the first weekend (they do not break it down 5s vs 5c but I don't think it matters for the rumor is a new phone size for the 6 and thus they are going to have pent up demand that wants to buy it now). And they broke 50 million during that oct to december quarter (now that combines all iphone 5s, 5c, and 4s sales for once again apple does not break it down)

With a die area of 100 mm2 how many wafers will that be required by TSMC to fuel 50 million 20nm smart phones (yes some will be filled with 28nm chips, but I also assume we will see growth in apples numbers and thus it ends up being a wash with 50 million 20nm chips being needed.

 

[Roland00Address]

I am not an expert on this by any means. But if they had 100% yields shouldn't they be able to get 500 to 600 chips per wafer with a 100mm2 die? So for 50 million 20nm chips that would be about 80,000 to 100,000 wafers that are need in the very near future just from apple.

And there is no way in hell they will get a 100% yields

Am I doing this quick math in my head wrong?

 

[AtenRa]

That is kinda cutting it close if they want to use 20nm in the next iphone in less than 90 days isn't it? The last two apple iphone presentations were 9/10/13 and 9/12/12 and the were ready for purchase less than 10 days later. That realistically means the final phone if it uses 20nm parts will be out in 60 days.

Last year they sold 9 million iphone 5s and iphone 5c during the first weekend (they do not break it down 5s vs 5c but I don't think it matters for the rumor is a new phone size for the 6 and thus they are going to have pent up demand that wants to buy it now). And they broke 50 million during that oct to december quarter (now that combines all iphone 5s, 5c, and 4s sales for once again apple does not break it down)

With a die area of 100 mm2 how many wafers will that be required by TSMC to fuel 50 million 20nm smart phones (yes some will be filled with 28nm chips, but I also assume we will see growth in apples numbers and thus it ends up being a wash with 50 million 20nm chips being needed.

Assuming 10mm to 10mm die (100mm^2) then a 300mm wafer will have ~600 dies.
Lets say they have 60% yields, then that makes 360 dies per wafer.

Lets say they need 5M 20nm SoCs, then they will need ~13888 300mm wafers.
For 10M SoCs they will need ~27777 wafers and so on.

 

[TuxDave]

That is kinda cutting it close if they want to use 20nm in the next iphone in less than 90 days isn't it?

If this is the first time getting 20nm silicon back from TSMC, I would be very surprised to see it in a product 90 days from now. Apple and TSMC would have to pull off a miracle.

My guess is that this will be used for iPhone 7 or some early next year refresh of iPhone6 if this really is the first time they're getting 20nm silicon back.

 

[Exophase]

If this is the first time getting 20nm silicon back from TSMC, I would be very surprised to see it in a product 90 days from now. Apple and TSMC would have to pull off a miracle.

What do you mean by first time getting 20nm silicon? First time for anyone? That's not it since there are products with 20nm silicon out now. First time for Apple? Then in what capacity? And even this article says that the chips began shipping in Q2, not really "now", could have been a few months ago.

 

[Phynaz]

I dont believe they have enough volumes of 20nm SoCs to have a product launch in September/October.
Unless they will do a paper launch.

You are assuming they are the sole supplier. Nobody has said that.

 

[bullzz]

@Phynaz - TSMC has to be sole supplier isnt. who else has 20nm tech

 

[TuxDave]

What do you mean by first time getting 20nm silicon? First time for anyone? That's not it since there are products with 20nm silicon out now. First time for Apple? Then in what capacity? And even this article says that the chips began shipping in Q2, not really "now", could have been a few months ago.

"First time getting 20nm silicon from TSMC" = When Apple tapes-in a 20nm design and submits it to TSMC for fabrication and gets back their first stepping for post-silicon debug. If the chip in the article is THAT chip, then I doubt it'll appear in a product 90 days from now. That's what I mean. However, if they're well past that and this is just part of the ramp up to mass production, then I can believe it.

Edit: I don't know this WSJ trick so I can't really read the article

 

[mavere]

Lets say they need 5M 20nm SoCs, then they will need ~13888 300mm wafers.
For 10M SoCs they will need ~27777 wafers and so on.

As per some comments from JP Morgan last week, I don't think Apple will have a problem getting their chip supply.

We believe TSMC should see a very aggressive ramp up of 20nm revenues in 3Q14, with wafer out for Apple rising from 30-40k wfpq to 120-130k wfpq, with quite high yields of a process at such early stage of ramp up.

Considering that TSMC's Q3 ends around the (suspected) iPhone 6 launch, Apple should have at least several 10s of thousands of wafers worth of chips.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Likely September like the last two iPhone releases, or October like the one before it.

So for a few months, TSMC will be on a later node than Intel.

 

[Exophase]

"First time getting 20nm silicon from TSMC" = When Apple tapes-in a 20nm design and submits it to TSMC for fabrication and gets back their first stepping for post-silicon debug. If the chip in the article is THAT chip, then I doubt it'll appear in a product 90 days from now. That's what I mean. However, if they're well past that and this is just part of the ramp up to mass production, then I can believe it.

Okay, I don't think the article is saying that they're getting back that kind of first silicon. The article actually goes on to say:

"TSMC began mass producing the application processors for Apple using its advanced 20-nanometer chip-manufacturing technology in the first quarter, the people said."

Which is pretty contradictory since it first said Q2. But it still specifies mass production.

Also:

"It is unclear how many microprocessors TSMC has shipped to Apple, and people familiar with the matter said Apple will continue to rely on Samsung for some of its microprocessor needs."

That could mean 20nm SoCs from both Apple and Samsung, or simply that they'll keep using their older 28nm parts for some products.

I don't know this WSJ trick so I can't really read the article

Google trick literally means google the URL

 

[Exophase]

So for a few months, TSMC will be on a later node than Intel.

TSMC 20nm is already more out than Intel 14nm is, if you're really comfortable with calling that a later node than Intel 22nm. Maybe if looking only at density. When looking at performance, not so much.

 

[AtenRa]

As per some comments from JP Morgan last week, I don't think Apple will have a problem getting their chip supply.



Considering that TSMC's Q3 ends around the (suspected) iPhone 6 launch, Apple should have at least several 10s of thousands of wafers worth of chips.

Yea, I was reading again the available news and Apple may acquired 5-10M SoCs until the end of H1 2014. So they may get a late Q3 or early Q4 launch after all.

 

[Homeles]

You are assuming they are the sole supplier. Nobody has said that.

Yes, but Samsung and GloFo are unlikely to have 20nm up and running, no?

So for a few months, TSMC will be on a later node than Intel.

You know damn well that node names are worthless labels. 20nm will definitely be denser than 22nm, which isn't the first time they've had better density, but performance is still going to be well in Intel's favor.

Anyway, 14nm has been in production roughly as long.

As per some comments from JP Morgan last week, I don't think Apple will have a problem getting their chip supply.



Considering that TSMC's Q3 ends around the (suspected) iPhone 6 launch, Apple should have at least several 10s of thousands of wafers worth of chips.

Yeah, I don't think Apple will run into supply issues, unless they're having awful yields. They should be fine on wafers.

 

[Cloudfire777]

Obviously that SOC is going inside the upcoming iPhone 6 and their new line of iPads.

I am not an expert on this by any means. But if they had 100% yields shouldn't they be able to get 500 to 600 chips per wafer with a 100mm2 die? So for 50 million 20nm chips that would be about 80,000 to 100,000 wafers that are need in the very near future just from apple.

And there is no way in hell they will get a 100% yields

Am I doing this quick math in my head wrong?

Yields for Apple was 50% back in late April. It have increased a good amount by now, but there is no way they are near 100%. 60-70s maybe?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Anyway, 14nm has been in production roughly as long.

What matters is what's available in the shops and when.

 

[AtenRa]

What matters is what's available in the shops and when.

Well both may come out at the same time give or take one or two months.

 

[TuxDave]

Google trick literally means google the URL

WOAH... what is this black magic!

 

[ShintaiDK]

What matters is what's available in the shops and when.

Considering your statement. you must know when both products hits the shops. Do tell.