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Wow. Seagate really put a damper on the future of SSD.

Isn't this sort of like the oil companies saying that there is no way electric cars will never work because you can't fill them up all over the place like you can a gas-powered car?? I don't find it at all surprising that the second largest HDD company would opine in such a fashion... Western Digital all but said the same thing at the beginning of the week.

Perhaps they actually are on to something though, since I would guess that both companies have the know-how and capital to (for real this time WD...) get into this market if they really wanted to...
 
NAND production will continue to ramp up and Seagate is a dinosaur soon to be extinct. They know it and they aren't adjusting to meet the future. Too bad, was nice knowing them.
 
i could sell all the enterprise flash i could get my hands on. for alot more than consumer MSRP+3 points margin. this is the problem.
 
Nintendesert said:
NAND production will continue to ramp up and Seagate is a dinosaur soon to be extinct. They know it and they aren't adjusting to meet the future. Too bad, was nice knowing them.
Click to expand...
The vast majority of Seagate and other large storage manufacturers business comes from the OEM market and corporate IT accounts, where storage capacity at reasonable prices rule (value), not retail sales or direct to end-user, and especially not the performance-at-the-expense-of-all-else enthusiast segment. i.e.

Slower 500GB storage @ $55 is a more desirable product to orders of magnitude more customers than a much faster 64GB storage @ $120 (or 500GB @ $1200).

The first-tier storage companies probably shipped more mechanical hard disks last week than all the SSD drives that will ship in 2011 combined.

Seagate and the other big first-tier storage companies know their market and business. When SSD makes sense to more than just a teensy fraction of a percentage, they will be there with products.
 
their entire argument is "SSDs cannot replace HDDs, since there isn't enough of it to meet worldwide demand, and it will require 250b to build all the plants needed to produce it"

While SSDs will not totally eliminate HDD in 2011 for the reasons he stated, to claim that this means that the tech is "doomed" is ridiculous. Technically it will remain niche in 2011 (for exactly that reason), but its nothing to do with doom.

In fact, this demonstrates more of why HDD tech is doomed rather then SSD... Such scarcity of a higher grade product means higher prices... if you had 5b to invest would you build an SSD plant or an HDD plant? the obvious answer is SSD plant since the ROI is better, you can over charge due to scarcity and the world is buying it due to being superior tech.
Over time HDD plants will shut down to be replaced with SSD plants.

This is similar to what we saw with LCD technology... at first they couldn't meet demand, but overnight development of CRT dried up. People saw the writing on the wall and technology transitioned.
 
taltamir said:
their entire argument is "SSDs cannot replace HDDs, since there isn't enough of it to meet worldwide demand, and it will require 250b to build all the plants needed to produce it"

While SSDs will not totally eliminate HDD in 2011 for the reasons he stated, to claim that this means that the tech is "doomed" is ridiculous. Technically it will remain niche in 2011 (for exactly that reason), but its nothing to do with doom.

In fact, this demonstrates more of why HDD tech is doomed rather then SSD... Such scarcity of a higher grade product means higher prices... if you had 5b to invest would you build an SSD plant or an HDD plant? the obvious answer is SSD plant since the ROI is better, you can over charge due to scarcity and the world is buying it due to being superior tech.
Over time HDD plants will shut down to be replaced with SSD plants.

This is similar to what we saw with LCD technology... at first they couldn't meet demand, but overnight development of CRT dried up. People saw the writing on the wall and technology transitioned.
Click to expand...

Very well put.
 
tcsenter said:
The vast majority of Seagate and other large storage manufacturers business comes from the OEM market and corporate IT accounts, where storage capacity at reasonable prices rule (value), not retail sales or direct to end-user, and especially not the performance-at-the-expense-of-all-else enthusiast segment. i.e.

Slower 500GB storage @ $55 is a more desirable product to orders of magnitude more customers than a much faster 64GB storage @ $120 (or 500GB @ $1200).

The first-tier storage companies probably shipped more mechanical hard disks last week than all the SSD drives that will ship in 2011 combined.

Seagate and the other big first-tier storage companies know their market and business. When SSD makes sense to more than just a teensy fraction of a percentage, they will be there with products.
Click to expand...



At the moment sure, however it's very obvious where the future is. We all see it and so do they. Will they be ready to release an SSD product when the time comes is a big question. I think they're digging their heels in too much and ceding the market to other manufacturers far more then they should. When they finally enter the market who is going to choose them with a decade(or more) less of experience when Intel has been there establishing themselves? By they time they do get on board I think the boat will have long sailed for them.
 
at work we're getting velociraptors. they feel much better for workstation tasks than larger capacity 7200rpm drives. I think Seagate is unable to compete on performance level with WD, let alone SSDs makers. Their business for now is in "only size matter" domain, so we enthusiasts don't have much to expect from them.
 
Until they can sell me a 2TB+ drive for under $100 like current spindles SSD's WILL NEVER REPLACE hard drives, and there is zero chance we are going to see sub $100 2TB SSD's inside of 5-10 years.

People need media storage and SSD is not anywhere even close to a viable option for this. Sure i own a SSD as a boot and apps drive, but between my desktop and server i have 2 2TB, 3 1.5TB, and 2 1TB drives. Replacing that with SSD's(10.5TB) would cost me more than my car.
 
Rifterut said:
Until they can sell me a 2TB+ drive for under $100 like current spindles SSD's WILL NEVER REPLACE hard drives, and there is zero chance we are going to see sub $100 2TB SSD's inside of 5-10 years.

People need media storage and SSD is not anywhere even close to a viable option for this. Sure i own a SSD as a boot and apps drive, but between my desktop and server i have 2 2TB, 3 1.5TB, and 2 1TB drives. Replacing that with SSD's(10.5TB) would cost me more than my car.
Click to expand...

1. SSD has no spindle. Spindle Disk is what most people call HDD.
2. Unless there is a nuclear war or social collapse, we will absolutely see 2TB SSDs for under 100$ in under 10 years. You might want to ask how much would a spindle drive give you 10 years from now.
3. Most people's home computers don't need more than 100GB.
4. We have the tech for 2TB SSDs today, the problem is price. Price will go down as new NAND plants are built (NAND is used to make SSDs)

tcsenter said:
Nowhere in the Seagate report does it use any language or even imply that SSD is "doomed".
Click to expand...

Which makes the article more Fail.
article said:
Seagate: Solid-State Disks Are Doomed (At Least For Now)
Hard disk manufacturer Seagate has published an extraordinary report all but proving that solid-state disk (SSD) technology will remain niche for the next decade or two, at least.
Click to expand...
 
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drizek said:
"Let's face it, we're not changing the world. We're building a product that helps people buy more crap - and watch porn."
Click to expand...
Apparently there is more porn than there is NAND.
Click to expand...

who said that?
also... just because porn and video games drive innovation and development of technology does not mean that they are the only use or that you aren't changing the world.

Without porn the internet and many computer and video technologies would be a pale shadow of what it is today.

Pornography provided the commercial means to develop the technology early on, until it became mature enough to be used in other places and subsequently change the world. Now it can justify its development and use elsewhere. If you eliminated all porn today the internet and computers will remain and continue to develop.

But if you want to take over a market go back to basics... Porn has lost a lot of its driving power because its got sufficient capability today. But video games haven't, so by controlling video games you control technology. The way to unseat MS and Intel would be to rule the video game industry and make most of it transition to competing technologies.
 
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U don't read daily tech do you Taltimir? He said the "We're not changing the world quote' back in a 2006 interview. It's at the bottom of DT's stories like 80% of the time.
 
"This is similar to what we saw with LCD technology... at first they couldn't meet demand, but overnight development of CRT dried up. People saw the writing on the wall and technology transitioned."

So true, so very true.
 
Wasn't Seagate shopping around for someone to buy them and take the company private?

I remember reading that somewhere.....
 
Sounds like seagate sees the future and they're getting left behind. They're trying to put the brakes on the SSD train to stall for time.
 
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