wow, did not see this coming at all.. kim jong un calls for end of conflict with sout

[zanejohnson]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/01/kim-jong-un-end-confrontation-south-korea



Kim Jong-un has called for an end to confrontation between North and South Korea, technically still at war in the absence of a peace treaty to end their 1950-53 conflict, in a surprise New Year's Day speech broadcast on state media.

edit: crap was supposed to go in P&N edit edit: and there it is. -DocPizza

 

[DrPizza]

Seems to be a small step forward. For what it's worth, wasn't Kim Jong-un educated in the West? And, I thought that recently, he sort of cleared house among the top ranking officials. Perhaps that was a precursor to actually doing something positive for his people? Call me optimistic, though I am very skeptical. (Likewise, isn't it about time that the US ended its embargo with Cuba?)

 

[CZroe]

He's still talking about unification as one Korea. Somehow I don't think he's talking about turning over North Korea to the leaders of South Korea or becoming an equal self-governing state in a unified Korea.

Even if he did have a total change of heart compared to his father, the brain-washing of all those around him will make this very tough to do without being assassinated or something.

 

[ivwshane]

I called it. Not on this forum though

When he started getting rid of his top generals I knew change was coming.

 

[zanejohnson]

yep, hopefully this is just that, a step in the right direction, Kim Jong Un might turn out to be capable of doing some good for the entire region.

thanks DrPizza for the move

 

[piasabird]

Words are cheap. Maybe he wants some foreign aid. Tell him to open his society and his borders with the south, and quit point all his artillery at south korea. We will start pulling out troops on the 2nd.

 

[SheHateMe]

It's a tarp...

I'm not even sure if S. Korea wants N. Korea's damaged and brainwashed citizens trying to assimilate into their society.

 

[ShintaiDK]

I actually got great hopes for this guy. But remember he can not do as he want. He needs to make sure all the generals etc want too. So why we see him as the sole leader in news, its far from reality.

Plus this guy comes from a life abroad. He knows how big a hole N. Korea is.

With the proper conversion N. Korea could turn into an economic fairy tale with great boom in not only the regional economy. But also world economy.

 

[amyklai]

It's not that surprising, actually. North Korea's dependent on China, and China has been pressuring North Korea to follow their example for a while.
Wouldn't be surprised if Kim's going to start some China-style reforms this year.

 

[ShintaiDK]

Everyone in the region is tired of N.Korea as well. Specially after Myanmar is set on the right path.

China sits in crappy position. While it sure wants N. Korea changed. You cant push too hard either. Russia often serve the same purpose as China when world diplomacy happens. (US too for that matter.) Always make sure the country you push got a friend. So there is a backdoor for further negotation or negotiation reopening. Thats what we often forget.

N. Korea got China. Iran got Russia. Israel got the US.

 

[Zeze]

I'm surprised you guys are putting this much weight on his words.

I agree with general sentiments of reddit. NK needs aid and they'll be saber rattling in no time.

This means nothing.

 

[Zeze]

Plus this guy comes from a life abroad. He knows how big a hole N. Korea is.

He lived in Sweden or Finland. It was the country that is apathetic towards US & UN. I wouldn't exactly say he comes from 'a life abroad'.

 

[Zeze]

It's a tarp...

I'm not even sure if S. Korea wants N. Korea's damaged and brainwashed citizens trying to assimilate into their society.

So much this. It's 2013, not the 70s. SK is doing just very very fine without NK. (Samsung, Hyundai, LG, etc)

It's a shitty assumption of NK to say SK wants unification. Most of today's SK younger gens don't care for NK.

 

[ShintaiDK]

He lived in Sweden or Finland. It was the country that is apathetic towards US & UN. I wouldn't exactly say he comes from 'a life abroad'.

The correct answer would be Switzerland.

Your entire post is just wrong.

 

[ShintaiDK]

So much this. It's 2013, not the 70s. SK is doing just very very fine without NK. (Samsung, Hyundai, LG, etc)

It's a shitty assumption of NK to say SK wants unification. Most of today's SK younger gens don't care for NK.

Wrong again. Plus we already had the german unification as an example.

 

[DucatiMonster696]

It's not that surprising, actually. North Korea's dependent on China, and China has been pressuring North Korea to follow their example for a while.
Wouldn't be surprised if Kim's going to start some China-style reforms this year.

If they unshackle their economy from the reigns of total central government control it will be interesting to see what occurs and how quickly growth ensues. It might even be another example, along side the piles of previous examples of what occurs when markets are freed up from absolute and complete government intervention and meddling. Yet as another poster stated, "Talk is cheap" or better yet, "Deeds not words are the speech of angels."

 

[ShintaiDK]

If they unshackle their economy from the reigns of total central government control it will be interesting to see what occurs and how quickly growth ensues. It might even be another example, along side the piles of examples of what occurs when markets are freed up from absolute and complete government intervention and meddling. Yet as another poster stated, "Talk is cheap" or better yet, "Deeds not words are the speech of angels."

Their main problems is isolation and military spending tho. Both self applied.

 

[Zeze]

Wrong again. Plus we already had the german unification as an example.

You are absolutely and utterly wrong. I agree with this sentiment below:

Credits to Cenodoxus:
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/15r8r0/north_korean_leader_in_rare_address_seeks_end_to/

Reunification-a-no-go: Well, the first observation we have to make here is that there is no reunification possible in the short term that would not completely and utterly bankrupt South Korea. South Korea is a rich country and one of the world's most advanced economies, but they literally cannot afford to absorb their northern cousins without becoming destitute for generations. They've studied process of German reunification very closely, and that's still costing Germany something to the tune of $1 trillion per decade even though East Germany was nowhere near as poor as North Korea. It's a scary, scary prospect.
This is one of the reasons that South Korea has increasingly soured on the prospect of reunification recently. They pay lip service to it, but they're not willing to kill their economy in pursuit of the warm fuzzies.
So. Rapprochement is far more likely than reunification, and even that's kind of unlikely depending on how you want to define it. Under the best of all possible scenarios, North Korea would clean up its act all on its own, and the two states could reunify at some point in the distant future when they approach parity, but all of this would need to happen first:
Some measure of ideological maturity. The massive drain on the economy from the personality cult would need to go. Unfortunately, it's the only thing that grants legitimacy to the Kim regime and wider government as things stand now, so ... this one is not too likely. In the absence of true maturity, I think South Korea would settle for not being insulted and vilified every time NK doesn't get what it wants.
Ceasing its illegal activities in pursuit of more hard currency. Some statisticians have conjectured that as much as a third of North Korea's GDP is nothing but the result of exporting heroin, methamphetamine, counterfeit U.S. currency, missiles (non-nuclear -- at least for the moment, they're not dumb enough to farm nuclear expertise or a weapon out to somebody ... oh God, please let them not be dumb enough to do this ... ), etc.
Closing its concentration camps. This is a massive and insurmountable abuse of human rights and needs to stop. Now.
Elimination of the songbun system. Kim's songbun system essentially created an impregnable aristocracy of North Korean elites close to the regime, and while it's weakened in the post-famine years (you can't eat political influence), it's still very much present and also a human rights issue. Honestly, it's a modern form of feudalism.
Liberalization of the economy. No reunification is possible as long as North Korea is as poor as it is. And again, there's no reason for it. They may need help in the short term, but they have a ton of things going for them and could probably pay for their climb into a modern economy by mining and exporting rare-earths minerals alone. It wouldn't be pretty, but it would pay the bills.
Liberalization of its ... everything else. Reunification is also not possible as long as the Kim regime's grip on the media, communication, passage in and out of the country, passage within the country, military, and national culture is as strong as it is.
Having said all this, the government is not stupid, and one of the more overlooked impediments to change is the North Koreans' observance of both the USSR's fall and the fall of the communist regimes within its sphere of influence. They are terribly afraid of becoming another mocked set of has-beens that, at worst, may also be the target of violent retribution in a future democracy. It also knows that its collapse is far more likely after liberalization, because most revolutions don't happen as long as a regime maintains strict control. They happen when a regime has relaxed enough to let people get a taste of the good life and freedom.
As I've written elsewhere, it's not that the North Korean government doesn't care about its people. It does. It just cares about its own survival a lot more, and everything else in the country runs a distant second at best. Because reform renders it vulnerable, there's not much hope at present, unless Kim Jong-Un successfully consolidates power, turns out to be a reformer, and maintains sufficient control to keep both his underlings and his countrymen from revolt.
Possible, but unlikely.

----
That being said, I'm 1.5 generation Korean-American. I don't want reunification. My dad loves Korean politics and he feels the same. I keep in touch with Korean friends in Korea and they just want NK to do their own thing and leave SK alone.

The assimilation of NK could possibly cripple and stunt SK's economy at world stage for generations.

You can't compare East Germany and NK. They're both in a totally different time and landscape.

NK's condition is embarrassingly bleak. No one wants to absorb 25 millions of broke & brain washed people (half of SK's population).

 

[amyklai]

Their main problems is isolation and military spending tho. Both self applied.

On top of that, from their current position, they've practically no where to go but up. Any reform is automatically going to be a success in the economic sense.
What's much harder for the North Korean regime is keeping the political results of that under control, especially with a prospering and democratic South Korea across the border. Which is probably the reason why previous Kims didn't start doing the Chinese thing much earlier.

 

[amyklai]

You are absolutely and utterly wrong. I agree with this sentiment below:

Credits to Cenodoxus:
http://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/15r8r0/north_korean_leader_in_rare_address_seeks_end_to/

Reunification-a-no-go: Well, the first observation we have to make here is that there is no reunification possible in the short term that would not completely and utterly bankrupt South Korea. South Korea is a rich country and one of the world's most advanced economies, but they literally cannot afford to absorb their northern cousins without becoming destitute for generations. They've studied process of German reunification very closely, and that's still costing Germany something to the tune of $1 trillion per decade even though East Germany was nowhere near as poor as North Korea. It's a scary, scary prospect.

Don't see how South Korea cannot afford reunification. Sure they would have some transfer payments, but there's no rule that forces them to transfer as much per capita as Germany has done. They'll just do whatever will work for them.

 

[EagleKeeper]

It's a tarp...

I'm not even sure if S. Korea wants N. Korea's damaged and brainwashed citizens trying to assimilate into their society.

Such has been a dream of both Korea's to unify as one.

The South knows what can be done. The work ethic of the North is much different than what existed in East Germany which was the only other merge of totalitarian with capitalism.

East Germany had the entitlement mentality that North Korea does not have. That population is too broken in spirit to expect handouts.

North Korea should open borders and allow free passage each way. There should not be a stream of refugees heading South if they know that the South will come to them. The logistics to move masses does not exist and people are also strongly wedded to their land.

Let the South bring prosperity to the North, similar to what the Latin American immigrants do in the US.

Support relatives with goods/funds initially. That will allow growth of consumer manufacturing in NK due to demand and investment.

It will be up to the NK government to balance relaxed control with their political power needs for the first 15-20 years. Back down the military without releasing the power that the military provides to them. Once the feel secure that the population will not rebel using new freedoms, the policy adjustments can be made.

Carrot and stick will not work if they are sincere; such will reverse progress. Carrot or no carrot will work better if overtures are followed through by NK.

If it is a ploy, it will be obvious right away when no openness happens.

 

[Lemon law]

Every time a nation has a change in leadership, its an opportunity to break with the past.

Is the offer of Kim Jung UM genuine or not?

As for me, why should I scream its phony or genuine until it stands the test of time.

As the diplomogabble phrase is cautious optimism.
As two of the three post WW2 stupidities are already resolved, as the two Vietnam(s) are now one, East and West Germany are now one, and its in no one's interests to see Korea as the lone exception.

 

[Zeze]

Let the South bring prosperity to the North, similar to what the Latin American immigrants do in the US.

Support relatives with goods/funds initially. That will allow growth of consumer manufacturing in NK due to demand and investment.

They've been divided for too long. 2013 is like two different worlds compared to 1960s of NK & SK.

Oh man, I can already picture civil unrest and nation-wide clusterfvck happening if magically NK floods into SK.

I can see SK discriminating against NK, calling them commies and low class SK bitching how NK are taking their jobs, etc.

So so much disaster waiting to happen. SK doesn't want this.

Thankfully in reality, I don't think two Koreas would just open the floodgate and assimilate overnight. If reunification was to happen, it'll be VERY indirect and gradual while keeping the border online.

 

[Lifted]

Reunification? East Germany?

Do you really think the military leaders and Kim Jong-un will hand over all of their power and wealth to their enemy of 60+ years because they suddenly had a change of heart? Nobody in East Germany had anything of value to lose when the Russians left.

This is apples and oranges.

 

[Zeze]

Reunification? East Germany?

Do you really think the military leaders and Kim Jong-un will hand over all of their power and wealth to their enemy of 60+ years because they suddenly had a change of heart? Nobody in East Germany had anything of value to lose when the Russians left.

This is apples and oranges.

Thank you.

A month from now, no one will remember about this talk, not even NK themselves.