Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

[VirtualLarry]

Tesla started accepting bitcoin as payment last night. But it's interesting they're planning on holding on to bitcoin they take as payment rather than converting it immediately to fiat currency. Pretty much all other companies that take bitcoin as payment does the opposite and immediately converts the bitcoins into fiat currency to minimize their risk. So Tesla end goal is not fiat but rather more bitcoin. Very interesting.

That actually dovetails nicely with what I've been believing and saying the last few months, that we are going to see a bifurcation of "the market", into two different types of currency.

"Hyper-inflation currency" (Fiat, USD) and "inflation-proof currency" (Bitcoin, possibly others).

Fiat will still be useful, for buying bread, milk, and paying the rent in public housing. It will be essentially a "poor person's currency". Items of necessity will secretly be subsidized, and the CPI manipulated (it already is!), to HIDE the fact that Hyper-inflation is slowly happening NOW.

Bitcoin, will be the "preferred", if not ONLY currency, accepted for "Luxury" items, which may eventually include personal vehicles. (Unmanned/driver-less "individual public transport" will be the primary method of transport for "the poors", think the MBTA meets Uber.)
GPUs will be sold in Bitcoin. Rolex watches (and Hermes scarves) are going to be sold in Bitcoin. Basically, anything of real and tangible, durable value will be sold in Bitcoin.

 

[ponyo]

That actually dovetails nicely with what I've been believing and saying the last few months, that we are going to see a bifurcation of "the market", into two different types of currency.

"Hyper-inflation currency" (Fiat, USD) and "inflation-proof currency" (Bitcoin, possibly others).

Fiat will still be useful, for buying bread, milk, and paying the rent in public housing. It will be essentially a "poor person's currency". Items of necessity will secretly be subsidized, and the CPI manipulated (it already is!), to HIDE the fact that Hyper-inflation is slowly happening NOW.

Bitcoin, will be the "preferred", if not ONLY currency, accepted for "Luxury" items, which may eventually include personal vehicles. (Unmanned/driver-less "individual public transport" will be the primary method of transport for "the poors", think the MBTA meets Uber.)
GPUs will be sold in Bitcoin. Rolex watches (and Hermes scarves) are going to be sold in Bitcoin. Basically, anything of real and tangible, durable value will be sold in Bitcoin.

Definitely possibility in the future. It's something I haven't thought much about but I can definitely see the potential of bitcoin becoming the universal global currency where the price of of a car, house, luxury watch, etc listed in local fiat currency and also in bitcoin underneath.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Well, it's what I see as the result of "Money-printers go Brrrr.".

Even now, look at the rumblings of Bond-market yields going up. Inflation is happening, folks.

 

[ultimatebob]

That actually dovetails nicely with what I've been believing and saying the last few months, that we are going to see a bifurcation of "the market", into two different types of currency.

"Hyper-inflation currency" (Fiat, USD) and "inflation-proof currency" (Bitcoin, possibly others).

Fiat will still be useful, for buying bread, milk, and paying the rent in public housing. It will be essentially a "poor person's currency". Items of necessity will secretly be subsidized, and the CPI manipulated (it already is!), to HIDE the fact that Hyper-inflation is slowly happening NOW.

Bitcoin, will be the "preferred", if not ONLY currency, accepted for "Luxury" items, which may eventually include personal vehicles. (Unmanned/driver-less "individual public transport" will be the primary method of transport for "the poors", think the MBTA meets Uber.)
GPUs will be sold in Bitcoin. Rolex watches (and Hermes scarves) are going to be sold in Bitcoin. Basically, anything of real and tangible, durable value will be sold in Bitcoin.

Sorry, but I gotta laugh. Have you ever tried buying something with Bitcoin? It's a lousy experience. The transaction fees are high, and the transaction times are slow. It was cool in 2012, but the transaction experience of something like Apple Pay blows it away.

They should stick with being a "store of value" until they resolve those issues.

 

[VirtualLarry]

Sorry, but I gotta laugh. Have you ever tried buying something with Bitcoin? It's a lousy experience. The transaction fees are high, and the transaction times are slow. It was cool in 2012, but the transaction experience of something like Apple Pay blows it away.

They should stick with being a "store of value" until they resolve those issues.

So why can't Bitcoin remain as the "Store of value" (non-inflationary), while using a different transaction-layer for actual purchases. (Lightning Network, LiteCoin, etc.)

That seems like a bit of a quibbling point, on the overall theory.

Do you see "money printers going Brrr" resulting in anything different? What do you think that will do for the "effective value" of Fiat currency?

Edit: Think of Bitcoin like your "Savings" account, and something like LiteCoin (being more scalable) as your "Checking/Debit" account.

 

[repoman0]

That actually dovetails nicely with what I've been believing and saying the last few months, that we are going to see a bifurcation of "the market", into two different types of currency.

"Hyper-inflation currency" (Fiat, USD) and "inflation-proof currency" (Bitcoin, possibly others).

Fiat will still be useful, for buying bread, milk, and paying the rent in public housing. It will be essentially a "poor person's currency". Items of necessity will secretly be subsidized, and the CPI manipulated (it already is!), to HIDE the fact that Hyper-inflation is slowly happening NOW.

Bitcoin, will be the "preferred", if not ONLY currency, accepted for "Luxury" items, which may eventually include personal vehicles. (Unmanned/driver-less "individual public transport" will be the primary method of transport for "the poors", think the MBTA meets Uber.)
GPUs will be sold in Bitcoin. Rolex watches (and Hermes scarves) are going to be sold in Bitcoin. Basically, anything of real and tangible, durable value will be sold in Bitcoin.

People don’t spend deflationary currencies. Automakers and luxury item manufacturers better hope that your scenario doesn’t play out or they will all go out of business. The only thing more disastrous for economic activity than runaway inflation is significant deflation. Why spend money when it makes 10+% per year just sitting there, with little risk?

Re: money printers and their effect on the value of USD ... it will probably decrease 2-3% per year, as usual. The money printers are there to fill a giant $2T hole in the economy and keep hungry people fed.

 

[njdevilsfan87]

everytime someone tries to explain NFT's and their 'value' i just lmao

There's actually some really good use cases for NFTs. But right now 99.9% of them are junk. It all feels similar to the ICO bubble of 2017. But all of the junk that floods the market effectively ends up being the beta test for the better use cases. It's all going to plan.

 

[Train]

People don’t spend deflationary currencies. Automakers and luxury item manufacturers better hope that your scenario doesn’t play out or they will all go out of business. The only thing more disastrous for economic activity than runaway inflation is significant deflation. Why spend money when it makes 10+% per year just sitting there, with little risk?

Re: money printers and their effect on the value of USD ... it will probably decrease 2-3% per year, as usual. The money printers are there to fill a giant $2T hole in the economy and keep hungry people fed.

That would only make sense if the vast majority of people had a lot of disposable income. They don't. A good portion of people live paycheck to paycheck. Another good portion of people only have a small portion of thier income as disposable. Are they really going to sit on it forever? Of course not.

Deflation fears are always way overblown, they don't justify 2-3% inflation. At best they should justify 0% inflation instead of negative.

 

[repoman0]

That would only make sense if the vast majority of people had a lot of disposable income. They don't. A good portion of people live paycheck to paycheck. Another good portion of people only have a small portion of thier income as disposable. Are they really going to sit on it forever? Of course not.

Deflation fears are always way overblown, they don't justify 2-3% inflation. At best they should justify 0% inflation instead of negative.

We are specifically talking about luxury items. The type of people you describe aren’t even part of the discussion.

A small amount of inflation is a really good way to keep the economy churning and to keep businesses and people investing in their futures. There is no negative compared to static monetary value or deflation.

 

[ultimatebob]

People don’t spend deflationary currencies. Automakers and luxury item manufacturers better hope that your scenario doesn’t play out or they will all go out of business. The only thing more disastrous for economic activity than runaway inflation is significant deflation. Why spend money when it makes 10+% per year just sitting there, with little risk?

Re: money printers and their effect on the value of USD ... it will probably decrease 2-3% per year, as usual. The money printers are there to fill a giant $2T hole in the economy and keep hungry people fed.

Yeah, the money printers have basically been running 24/7 since the last economic collapse in 2008. We haven't seen runaway inflation yet, so we must be doing something right.

 

[Train]

We are specifically talking about luxury items. The type of people you describe aren’t even part of the discussion.

A small amount of inflation is a really good way to keep the economy churning and to keep businesses and people investing in their futures. There is no negative compared to static monetary value or deflation.

I still don't buy it. Rich people aren't trying to making money off of savings accts. They own stock, real estate, and businesses.

They also aren't the people who would postpone a purchase because the price might drop. I saw plenty of plasma screens get snatched up when the prices were plummeting.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I kept trying to tell you guys inflation was out of control. The first sign of trouble was gold almost doubling to $2,000 an ounce from 2017-2020.

Im glad we all finally acknowledge it.

And now with a proposed additional $6 trillion in profligate debt spending, we arent even "there" yet.


In less than 7 years, I suspect we will cross $50,000,000,000,000 in debt and soon thereafter there will be talk of CANCELLING or REPLACING THE EXISTING CURRENCY so we can payoff the old debt with more valuable "money".

Unfortunately this may cause all sorts of problems for everyone.

Mexico cancelled and replaced their currency back in the 1990s and the Prime Rate skyrocketed over 50%, there was rioting and looting of grocery stores for food and other essentials. Government payments stopped to those getting assistance and the military.

If you had $10,000 pesos in your checking account, now you had $10 new pesos. People were making panic withdrawals (not that it mattered, it was in the old currency, but they were trying to buy anything of value that could be converted back for new pesos).

To help people transition, the new currency replaced the old currency over three years.

Prime rate in Mexico:

 

[ultimatebob]

Doubt it, stimmy checks have just started hitting.

It seems that the stimmy rally didn't happen. Actually, we're down 15% since the last time I complained about this:



I think that the India crypto ban spooked some investors. It will probably come back at some point, though.

 

[Train]

Actually, we're down 15% since the last time I complained about this

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So buy some at a discount.

 

[Viper GTS]

It's fairly delusional IMO to think that a significant percentage of people who make so little that they are eligible for the stimulus payments are going to be in a financial position to drop a few thousand dollars into anything that isn't housing payments, car repairs, credit card bills, etc.

There was never going to be a 'stimmy rally' anyone who thinks otherwise is waaaaay out of touch with how most of America lives.

And I'm saying this as someone who is way out of touch with how most of America lives.

Viper GTS

 

[Train]

There were several articles about it.

Millions Tempted By Stimulus Check Bitcoin Bet After Sudden Price Surge

The third such Covid-19 stimulus check, worth $1,400 to those earning less than $75,000 per year, comes as bitcoin and the stock market has soared over the last few months...

www.forbes.com

How much actually went into BTC, or GME or whatever hot meme stock, who knows. The inflow to BTC could have been offset by other factors.

 

[ultimatebob]

¯\_(ツ)_/¯ So buy some at a discount.

I'm not sure how much more it's going to drop. I thought that $55,000 was a good point to get in and buy more, and now my investment is already down 10%. I think that I'll wait.

 

[ultimatebob]

It's fairly delusional IMO to think that a significant percentage of people who make so little that they are eligible for the stimulus payments are going to be in a financial position to drop a few thousand dollars into anything that isn't housing payments, car repairs, credit card bills, etc.

There was never going to be a 'stimmy rally' anyone who thinks otherwise is waaaaay out of touch with how most of America lives.

And I'm saying this as someone who is way out of touch with how most of America lives.

Viper GTS

Yeah, they put a tighter income cap on this round of stimmies. I'd imagine that there were a lot fewer people this time around who got a stimulus check and really didn't need it. We were kinda counting on those folks to boost crypto and the meme stocks like AMC and GME.

 

[Train]

Yeah, they put a tighter income cap on this round of stimmies. I'd imagine that there were a lot fewer people this time around who got a stimulus check and really didn't need it. We were kinda counting on those folks to boost crypto and the meme stocks like AMC and GME.

75k for individuals or 150k for households. Both of those numbers are ~double the national median. 150k household puts you in the 81st percentile by income:

Household Income Percentile Calculator, US - DQYDJ

Check your household income percentile vs. 2023's United States income distribution in this calculator. How does it rank: top 1%, median, or other?

dqydj.com

 

[Viper GTS]

This is relevant here:

• U.S. income distribution 2019 | Statista

This data is old but if you combine this with the former you can see how income distribution actually happens in the US.

Distribution_of_Annual_Household_Income_in_the_United_States_2010.png (3742×2510) (wikimedia.org)

It's easy to lose sight of this if you exist somewhere on the right side of those graphs. Particularly now in Covid times. If you've had a job this whole time you're probably not interacting with a lot of people who make up the fat end of stimulus eligibility. I don't think I regularly interact with anyone who is stimulus eligible this time around.

Viper GTS

 

[ponyo]

I'm not sure how much more it's going to drop. I thought that $55,000 was a good point to get in and buy more, and now my investment is already down 10%. I think that I'll wait.

boohoo. Do you want some cheese with that whine? Bitcoin is still $51,000 atm. I think that's amazing.

 

[Fritzo]

Reading reports BTC is going to hit a floor around $46000. Great time to buy!

Honestly, I'm skipping new Bitcoin and hitting some of the smaller coins. You get get a lot more growth from the newer coins trading at $1 or less than BTC.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I'm thinking I will dollar cost average all the way to the bottom. Just small infusions every week or so. Probably do the same thing with ETH and stocks.

 

[ultimatebob]

boohoo. Do you want some cheese with that whine? Bitcoin is still $51,000 atm. I think that's amazing.

Oh, I'm blaming YOU personally for my losses, Ponyo... Mr. "Bitcoin is going to a million"

 

[ponyo]

Oh, I'm blaming YOU personally for my losses, Ponyo... Mr. "Bitcoin is going to a million"

And I'm going to blame you for keeping me on the sidelines. When I thought about buying at around $7,500, you said that was too high. When I considered at $12,500, you said it was too high. At $33,000, you said it was too high. Now $50,000 can't even buy me 1 bitcoin.