Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

[ponyo]

To be fair, the idea is for the good ones to get decoupled from BTC, prior to any death of bitcoin. I also don't envision bitcoin actually dying though, but it won't be achieving the original intent, not unless they start making solid fork proposals that all the market can get behind without much controversy.

There are no good ones. If you want to survive the eventual crash, you're going have to learn this. Bitcoin and eth will survive. All others will end up $0.

 

[DrMrLordX]

There are no good ones. If you want to survive the eventual crash, you're going have to learn this. Bitcoin and eth will survive. All others will end up $0.

Nah, stuff like NEO may make it in the long term. There are some good ERC20s linked to the Ethereum blockchain. And of course XMR.

 

[SKORPI0]

Wow, didn't know that there are this many cryptos, 1507 right now.
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

Now where did this all "wealth" come from and what are they really worth? They need to be regulated like any "commodity", maybe like stocks. $$$ changes so fast.. they need to be tracked, pay the appropriate due taxes in real currency/legal tender.

 

[Charmonium]

Wow, didn't know that there are this many cryptos, 1507 right now.
https://coinmarketcap.com/all/views/all/

Now where did this all "wealth" come from and what are they really worth? They need to be regulated like any "commodity", maybe like stocks. $$$ changes so fast.. they need to be tracked, pay the appropriate due taxes in real currency/legal tender.

Welcome to a modern day gold rush. The only people getting rich are the one's selling pans and pickaxes. You know you've stepped into an alternate universe when even Dogecoin is worth a few tenths of a cent.

But yeah, the only real regulation right now is KYC/AML. Once you've crossed the great divide from fiat to crypto, it's a lawless frontier. Although some cases do attract the attention of regulators. I recently read about a crypto that claims to be back by USD called Tethers. The idea is that since so few exchanges have bank relationships for funds transfers, you would trade into tethers and use them in place of dollars. The only problem is that no one can verify that the company behind the currency actually has all of the USD it claims to. IOW, at the moment, it has the ability to print money.

The thing is, what exactly are you going to regulate? There's no underlying value so disclosure and reporting isn't an issue. Block chains and ledgers are virtually always publicly available. The only thing you can really do is insure that people are cheated fairly.

 

[ultimatebob]

You guys are crazy if you want bitcoin to die. If bitcoin crashes, every altcoins will suffer even worse fate than bitcoin. Like it or not, bitcoin and eth are the market. If they go down, it's going to take everything with it and no altcoins will be spared. None.

Yeah, it's annoying, but all of the cryptocurrencies seem to be tied to the original Bitcoin. When it goes down, all of the others go down by roughly the same amount.

 

[cbrunny]

I started mining Garlicoin. I like garlic bread and so it is just a natural fit.

I pre-ordered my yacht yesterday, so the thing better spike in value soon or my wife is gonna kill me.

 

[IronWing]

Yeah, it's annoying, but all of the cryptocurrencies seem to be tied to the original Bitcoin. When it goes down, all of the others go down by roughly the same amount.

It's almost as if investors have no idea what they are pumping their money into and invest in anything that labeled crytpo or blockchain and dump anything labeled crypto or blockchain.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Now where did this all "wealth" come from and what are they really worth?

From sales records. If I create software enabling people to create and sustain a blockchain, and if I then convince some non-zero number of people to maintain nodes (assuming a decentralized blockchain), I can then set the software to handle token issuance and start assigning tokens to addresses on the blockchain according to however I wrote the software.

Then all I have to do is convince someone to buy at least a fraction of one token. The price paid for that fraction defines the per-token price of my new blockchain token. See the price history for ZEC on an exchange like Poloniex, for example: ZEC was worth more than $1k when it first launched, due to someone somewhere paying a non-trivial amount for a tiny fraction on 1 ZEC. Once token volume increased for ZEC (it was hard to mine it back then, so volume was low for awhile), price inevitably dropped as people started trying to sell more ZEC for lower and lower prices.

Regardless, all it takes is one sale on record, and you get market cap. The higher the trading volume for a token, the less the market cap value represents pure fiction.

They need to be regulated like any "commodity", maybe like stocks. $$$ changes so fast.. they need to be tracked, pay the appropriate due taxes in real currency/legal tender.

I'm not entirely sure I agree. Some of the crypto projects will work well in a regulatory framework, while some others won't. XMR, for example, won't pass regulatory muster. It's too easy to use it for money laundering, buying/selling contraband, circumventing international currency controls, and other pretty darn illegal things. It's also an interesting tool for tax evasion.

On the flip side, it would be an incredibly useful asset in countries where "we" (that is, those of us in the country contemplating regulation of crypto) do not like the local government and want to help local rebels conduct business while avoiding all of those country's currency controls. The feds probably don't want people using it in the US of A, but I'm sure they'd love to see people using it in Venezuela.

The main thing we need are more anti-fraud controls to help warn investors away from obvious scams. Government involvement is probably not going to help there, sadly. I do not expect the feds to understand crypto projects well enough to pick out the scammy ones in any meaningful timeframe.

 

[IEC]

On the flip side, it would be an incredibly useful asset in countries where "we" (that is, those of us in the country contemplating regulation of crypto) do not like the local government and want to help local rebels conduct business while avoiding all of those country's currency controls. The feds probably don't want people using it in the US of A, but I'm sure they'd love to see people using it in Venezuela.

I know of some individuals in Venezuela who have been mining since 2016 (or even earlier) in order to not starve. We might think a few USD a day is nothing up here, but in a country like Venezuela the USD is currently very, very valuable due to hyperinflation and government price controls.

As an aside, if you want cheap Spanish lessons now is the time to take advantage of the Internet and help out enterprising doctors/lawyers/etc in Venezuela with some USD.

 

[DrMrLordX]

I know of some individuals in Venezuela who have been mining since 2016 (or even earlier) in order to not starve. We might think a few USD a day is nothing up here, but in a country like Venezuela the USD is currently very, very valuable due to hyperinflation and government price controls.

As an aside, if you want cheap Spanish lessons now is the time to take advantage of the Internet and help out enterprising doctors/lawyers/etc in Venezuela with some USD.

That's one of the reasons why I support projects like XMR. Privacy isn't all about letting the terrorists win. Some people live in difficult circumstances. Venezuela's currency and export/import controls represent a terrible burden on the people living there. Stuff like XMR isn't a perfect solution to their problems - they still have to deal with import restrictions and local scarcity of goods/services. Having crypto can help them barter for whatever is available locally, though.

 

[Ns1]

Daaaaaamn 8200 BTC

 

[destrekor]

I'm honestly thinking we are right around the bottom. Look at the overall crypto market trendlines of 2017 and prior -- bitcoin was rising incredibly well through 2017, in a strong but relatively modest and consistent trend, then it shot up out of sync with the trend. It's back down now, but right now it's still above the trend, and in many time-based patterns it is showing a strong resistance to the lower bounds right now. A lot of people are taking advantage of still strong gains during the meteoric rise in the past few months and 2017 in general, but the market will even out as the large-gain whales start pulling the reigns on sell pressure.

 

[Train]

yeesh. Good thing I am playing with house money. Or I might be like some of those guys on reddit who are freaking the fuck out. I'm more upset that Ford is down 18% in 2 weeks. Kicking myself I didn't do some profit taking after a really good earnings report.

 

[destrekor]

The only thing I'm kicking myself for is not cashing into either actual USD or just USDT (for all the scam worries it still holds its peg quite well) while my holdings were higher and then buying back now (or continuing to hold the cash). But I've kicked myself on that for many dips, and realize I really just don't want to fret over every dip whether I'm getting the right moment, especially because I often do not have good timing and lose some. I'm mostly content with holding through as the general trend, IMHO, remains on the up and up year on year. Right now very much looks like a great time to get in, accumulate, or buy back in. Me, I'm just annoyed that I haven't maximized my gains through swing plays, but day trading often requires far more attention than I can often provide if I'm going to do my actual job well. I check often but I often miss what I knew would be the best timing. Admittedly I might try some more because I've been holding to myself some personal charting guesses that have been right calls if I could have convinced myself to make them, but I worried I'd miss the start of the downswing due to work or other circumstances. When I have tried, that has happened, and then I end up holding too long thinking I'm reading a bounce correctly and then it's a free fall. Welp, time to hodl the bag I guess. Unless it's too scammy, then I'm probably out.

One thing I wouldn't mind is for BTC to remain on the up and up, because if you watch when the entire market drops, not only to USD values drop as BTC drops, but most alts continue to lose ground against BTC as well, so their USD value drops are far more significant. If you ignore the USD values and stick to BTC values, you'll see you can actually make far more if you weather the BTC storms, as you'll make more in BTC and when it inevitably begins to rise and the alts begin to rise against BTC, that's when you buy back in. As BTC rises overall you'll find your gains moving far more. That's IF you can more or less actively day trade. Still nearly impossible to time the major spikes, they can sometimes start from moments like right now where there is tremendous squeeze pressure. Theoretically it could rocket in either direction, a huge candlebar, but I'm guessing more generally upward than down from here.

But as I'm playing entirely on house money now myself (I've cashed out original USD values), I also don't mind weathering the major storms like right now because I don't have a pressing need to worry about withdrawing any more cash, and I strongly suspect the general bull market is going to continue, despite the well-needed correction) as that last surge was entirely too much too soon, breaking out of the channel. On longer scales, it has returned to the channel and hasn't broke the southern boundary. It tested that boundary but shows some promise in retreating from it, retracing from what will likely have been decided is an over-correction.

 

[VirtualLarry]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

 

[Zeze]

I feel so bad for any of those folks that sold.

I mean why? That means you're LOCKING IN YOUR LOSS. Ugh. This is NOT the end of crypto. It's barely -60% from ATH. You pissed your pants while you still have 40% that's proportionally will grow back?

 

[paperfist]

I feel so bad for any of those folks that sold.

I mean why? That means you're LOCKING IN YOUR LOSS. Ugh. This is NOT the end of crypto. It's barely -60% from ATH. You pissed your pants while you still have 40% that's proportionally will grow back?

Yup it works a lot like sticks. Pile up what you mine and sell high.

Has anyone bought an Antminer from eBay? Wondering if there's any reputable sellers...

 

[destrekor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

If there's large-scale manipulation like that, I wouldn't be at all surprised. However, I also suspect it's not quite as it seems on first read -- but regardless, if a proper audit is not released in a reasonable time frame from here (perhaps Bitfinex/Tether are being honest when they said they grew tired of the slow pace with the current auditor, hey it's possible!), then I fear BTC will be held down for quite some time. IIRC, it took BTC a long time to recover from Mt. Gox, even when it isn't the Bitcoin community itself. Multi-partner market manipulation is hardly new, and yes without regulations all of crypto is more prone to it. And, like every crash previously, this was just a hasty retreat following a hasty explosion upward. Either bad timing or complicit behavior is to blame for unusually bad news happening during the explosive period. Then there's the fact that the crypto market is especially flighty and easily spooked.

 

[DrMrLordX]

The only thing I'm kicking myself for is not cashing into either actual USD or just USDT (for all the scam worries it still holds its peg quite well) while my holdings were higher and then buying back now

It's hard to read the highs and lows. I've had plenty of woulda-coulda-shoulda moments over the ~2 years. Most traders miss out on stuff like this unless they are somehow directly causing it (whales/scammers/FUDers).

Now might not be the right time to buy back in anyway, if you had sold. We're getting buy pressure pushing prices back up some, but that doesn't mean it can't suffer another dip soon.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/31/technology/bitfinex-bitcoin-price.html

Nice of the NYT to notice.

I have a feeling that it'll take the CFTC awhile to cut through all the nonsense and finally audit Tether Ltd./Bitfinex satisfactorily. My prediction is that a). the money isn't there or b). it's non-liquid IOUs/investments in violation of Tether Ltd.'s own charter; either way, the backing capital isn't available or simply doesn't exist. If BFX/Tether try to stall or obfuscate the issue too much, the gub'ment will just rule the audit to be a bust regardless of what's really going on. USDT will take a dump on itself no matter what.

That's just my prediction, mind you.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I dunno. Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. I say back under $9,000 by Friday.

 

[destrekor]

I dunno. Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. I say back under $9,000 by Friday.

I think it'll be back under 9k tonight/tomorrow, maybe it crosses a few more times yet.

 

[Crono]

Predicting these short term rises and falls is an exercise in futility.

 

[brianmanahan]

I dunno. Looks like a dead cat bounce to me. I say back under $9,000 by Friday.

forget friday, it was more like "6 hours from now"

 

[destrekor]

Predicting these short term rises and falls is an exercise in futility.

Actually with charting you can get a decent feel for the swings and breakout moments, BUT you have to be tapped into the live global news and social media if you want to even begin to predict the massive breakouts. You might be able to find yourself able to get a feel for when it moves in the natural ups and downs and might get lucky hopping onto a breakout during/after a coiled squeeze, but to truly catch those early it can be practically impossible. And no multi-day breakout is predictable due to the volatile nature of a relatively thin forex-like global market, combined with near-daily regional news and rumors that drastically affect market emotions.

It wouldn't be as thin if trading was truly decentralized, as right now you have to be on a particular centralized exchange in order to trade, and then only with others on the same exchange. I think we may eventually see a successful decentralized exchange - and maybe more of today's crypto exchanges will become more like brokers down the road. There are projects setting out to achieve a P2P decentralized exchange, and that might be the best stepping stone for the market to evolve.

 

[destrekor]

forget friday, it was more like "6 hours from now"

Called it.

It's still coiling, but it is showing very strong support a bit north of $8000. Right now it looks to be finishing a triple-bottom, a very encouraging sign in the coming hours/day/days.

My prior prediction I made without even noticing the existing double-bottom formation. I think both reads together offer a confirmation of support level and pressure to retrace the over-correction.

But then again, as I stated in the above post, predictions are difficult due to the number of wrenches that can be thrown into it.