Wow. Bitcoin is almost $1,500

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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
I'm getting part of my wish of lower Bitcoin/Ether prices. The other part is for it to go much much lower and remain low forever.
why? Because of the video card shortage and high prices caused by bitcoin miners buying the cards?
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,842
4,785
146
Ethereum miners, Ponyo. No sane person has tried to mine Bitcoin for a GPU for about 6 years now. :)
Why? Does it take a millennium for it to mine a single Bitcoin now or something? And what determines the time? I always figured it would just give you fractions or something but obviously I've never cared to look into mining myself.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,450
126
Why? Does it take a millennium for it to mine a single Bitcoin now or something? And what determines the time? I always figured it would just give you fractions or something but obviously I've never cared to look into mining myself.

Basically, yes. The Bitcoin mining difficulty is insanely high now, to the point where you need custom mining hardware to do it. At this point, you would end up wasting about $400 of electricity GPU mining for a year to get about $40 worth of Bitcoin. If you mined Ethereum instead, you would still end up with a small profit at the end of the year... probably $600 to $900 depending on the card. Even that really isn't worth your time unless you build a mining "farm" with a lot of cards.

Here's a mining calculator, if you want to see the math. I put in some numbers for an average gaming system with a midrange gaming card for reference:


 
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gorobei

Diamond Member
Jan 7, 2007
3,988
1,487
136
I was thinking that or it's a signal to the chinese people to cash out now. Transfer that wealth into China while the getting is good
the chinese people are trying to get their money out of china. they have less faith in the govt than anyone.

right now there is no reliable storage of wealth in china. with the government dictating everything (money, investments, policy) anything you have can easily become worthless.

extended family members in china are pooling money to buy 2nd, 3rd, and even 4th houses in order to make the eldest sons look like a promising marriage prospect because of the fallout of the one child policy reducing the number of females born decades earlier. men outnumber women by wide margins in the rural areas. there is a housing bubble in china and everyone is waiting for it to burst.

the current means of wealth storage is land/housing. because of the way smaller districts (US equivalent would be counties/states) are making up for shortfalls in budgets, there is a ton of borrowing based on land. but central government policy can mandate any kind of change that could result in an area being turned into some project development zone. residents could be forced to sell (not necessarily at a profit) and all their saving was for naught.

the newly wealthy are now looking for ways to get their money out of china. the laws limit citizens from taking out more than $50,000 worth of rmb/yuan in a year outside of china and spending it on land or other long term investments. the number of citizens skirting the law has forced the government to hire western law enforcement veterans to track down and recover the money. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02...-reclaim-money-from-inside-australia/10806228

mining bitcoin and eth are effectively the best way to get money out china with no bank record trail. all you need is the wallet key, just take a vacation to some nation without strong ties to china and looser bank regulation/reporting and access the wallet on some local exchange to convert your crypto to cash. there is no way for china to know.

that's why even if china cracks down on domestic exchanges their citizens will keep mining.
 
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repoman0

Diamond Member
Jun 17, 2010
5,191
4,572
136
Basically, yes. The Bitcoin mining difficulty is insanely high now, to the point where you need custom mining hardware to do it. At this point, you would end up wasting about $400 of electricity GPU mining for a year to get about $40 worth of Bitcoin. If you mined Ethereum instead, you would still end up with a small profit at the end of the year... probably $600 to $900 depending on the card. Even that really isn't worth your time unless you build a mining "farm" with a lot of cards.

Here's a mining calculator, if you want to see the math. I put in some numbers for an average gaming system with a midrange gaming card for reference:



It can be a lot more than $600-900 annually right now. My 3080 has printed about two grand since I gave up on my principles and started mining on it in early February. It’s usually in the neighborhood of $10-15 per day at whatever the current prices are. That’s at 230W plus whatever the rest of the system power usage is. That’s why the going rate is now $2200-2400 for an $800 card. I would have sold my card by now at these prices but so far it’s better to just let it run.

edit: although checking now, it has dipped under $8/day, first time I’ve seen that. Early indicator of people starting to think about selling off their gpus? You heard it here first :)
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,342
265
126
Found an old wallet with 95K DOGE in it. Wish I had started looking for old "loose change" 2 weeks ago! Still worth a nice little chunk at $0.35 each. Going to keep looking through old wallets on old hard drives this week.
 
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ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
Found an old wallet with 95K DOGE in it. Wish I had started looking for old "loose change" 2 weeks ago! Still worth a nice little chunk at $0.35 each. Going to keep looking through old wallets on old hard drives this week.
That's nice surprise! The most "loose change" I've found was couple hundred bucks of cash in one of my old coat jacket. I was pretty happy with that.

I think DOGE will break the buck sometime this year.
 

njdevilsfan87

Platinum Member
Apr 19, 2007
2,342
265
126
Well I've at least sold enough prior to this crash that I can continue to fund and work on my business for the next year. That Bittrex coin recovery was critical, BCH airdrop recovery when it was trading around $1500, and recently 95K DOGE recovery. I also liquidated some long term positions I had on the way up. I rotated some of that back into short term value plays like XTZ back in January, but that has totally bombed now with the rest of the market. But at least those losses counter my short-term gains in the stock market and not my tax favorable long term sales. But I'm obviously not going to be tax loss harvesting anything until the end of this year.

Fun but stressful. And this is why I am working on something tangible right now: so I hopefully don't have to manage high risk high reward speculative investments anymore!
 

Icecold

Golden Member
Nov 15, 2004
1,147
1,089
146
I'm having trouble deciding which I should buy some more of right now - Bitcoin, Eth, or Cardano. They're all at prices that seem like they have a lot of potential upside(and downside as well).
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,450
126
I see that Ethereum is below $2,000 now and Bitcoin looks like it's headed to below $30,000 soon. Bummer.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,614
6,003
136
I see that Ethereum is below $2,000 now and Bitcoin looks like it's headed to below $30,000 soon. Bummer.

i sold out a while ago and pulled all the money out of my coinbase account

but i have just enough USD left sitting around in there to buy 1 ETH

tempted to buy it and forget about it for a few years
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,688
2,811
126
I'm having trouble deciding which I should buy some more of right now - Bitcoin, Eth, or Cardano. They're all at prices that seem like they have a lot of potential upside(and downside as well).
I'm almost out of spare cash in my Coinbase Pro account as I bought the dip Wednesday morning. But it looks like Coinbase will give me $100k instant deposit credit if I need it so if things really crash, I will use that to buy more Bitcoin and Eth.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,614
6,003
136
i sold out a while ago and pulled all the money out of my coinbase account

but i have just enough USD left sitting around in there to buy 1 ETH

tempted to buy it and forget about it for a few years

ah crap, i almost bought an ETH at 1750$, but didn't

and now it's 2100$

i coulda made 350$ today
y1IFwRZ.png
 

Roger Wilco

Diamond Member
Mar 20, 2017
4,748
7,127
136
This is an interesting article attributing the latest crypto dip to the CCP's hardened stance on crypto and the resulting actions of Chinese miners.


"Although what they receive on a daily basis is small compared to global BTC volume, the data showcased above suggests that when miners are likely selling (an increase of Flows Sent), markets respond negatively.

Aggregate flows sent by miners are at the highest levels since March 2020, which supports the hypothesis that the latest sell-off was driven by Chinese miners that have sold part of their holdings in order to escape the latest wave of enforcement actions by the CCP.
Remember that miners are also speculators. Even though what they receive in miner rewards is small, in USD terms, relative to the volume of global BTC markets, they do hold BTC in their balance sheets. In times of uncertainty, when they expect to need cash, their collective actions affect the market.

Now put yourself in the shoes of a Chinese miner that might have to move to a different country. Regardless of the scale of your operations, you will likely need cash to finance that move. The good news is that this is a temporary phenomenon. As with previous spikes in Flows Sent, the market impact was short-term and close to coincidental.

Another interesting on-chain behavior worth highlighting is miners’ potential concerns towards centralized exchanges in light of the CCP’s crackdown. The current sell-off coincides with thousands of bitcoins being withdrawn from major exchanges and deposited to miner addresses,"
 
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DrMrLordX

Lifer
Apr 27, 2000
22,885
12,941
136
While I am not normally positive about anything related to BTC, I will say that moving hashpower out of a centralized communist oligarchy is probably good for Bitcoin's decentralization. It may also be a signal to all miners that they need to rethink Proof of Work eventually, despite their massive investments in ASICs that would be instantly rendered useless should anything change.
 

ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
25,134
2,450
126
There was a Bitcoin sponsored race car in the Indy 500 yesterday. It led the race for awhile, but didn't really have a chance of winning at the end. Not sure if there is some symbolism there.

Seriously though, we're now at the halfway point in the year. If you had to guess, where do you think Bitcoin and Ethereum will be at the end of 2021?
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,614
6,003
136
There was a Bitcoin sponsored race car in the Indy 500 yesterday. It led the race for awhile, but didn't really have a chance of winning at the end. Not sure if there is some symbolism there.

Seriously though, we're now at the halfway point in the year. If you had to guess, where do you think Bitcoin and Ethereum will be at the end of 2021?

was reading twitter on my phone this morning

and there was a freaking "you can now buy dogecoin on coinbase!" ad stuck in the feed every 3 or 4 tweets