Wow! 72% of republican primary voters do not believe Obama born in America!!!

[fskimospy]

Math fail.

Uhmm, it really isn't. You either believe that Obama was born in the USA, you believe he was not born in the USA or you don't believe either because you aren't sure. Saying otherwise would be like saying that agnostics believe in god because they aren't sure.

 

[bfdd]

Sample size affects the standard deviation, which in turn will affect the margin of error for each question. (4.9% here). Considering 51% of these guys are birthers according to this poll, if only 46% were it wouldn't really be considerably better.

The arguments against sample size that I continually see on here are just based in an ignorance of scientific polling and statistics. Given the results, 400 is plenty.

55,000,000
400

Now I'm not going to argue the validity of the standard deviation or any of that, but I personally think these kinds of polls do nothing but harm to our political climate. 400 people is far to small of a sample to poll people on where they stand in "political" issues, especially when the "group" is so broad and encompasses so many different trains of thought.

That said, their numbers do line up with those of the previous polls.

 

[bfdd]

Uhmm, it really isn't. You either believe that Obama was born in the USA, you believe he was not born in the USA or you don't believe either because you aren't sure. Saying otherwise would be like saying that agnostics believe in god because they aren't sure.

"not sure" is not "not born in the USA" and is probably more in line with "I don't give a fuck"

 

[fskimospy]

55,000,000
400

Now I'm not going to argue the validity of the standard deviation or any of that, but I personally think these kinds of polls do nothing but harm to our political climate. 400 people is far to small of a sample to poll people on where they stand in "political" issues, especially when the "group" is so broad and encompasses so many different trains of thought.

That said, their numbers do line up with those of the previous polls.

I know we've talked about this before. I don't know how else to say it, but it isn't. Math proves it isn't. The standard deviation is there exactly to encompass differences in trains of thought, in craziness, in whatever. That's the whole point.

 

[disappoint]

That's why Obama is going to be reelected. GOP primary voters are going to pick an unelectable nutcase moron like themselves.

They already did that. He was selected. I hope it's Charlie Sheen this time, he'd make a better president than that other drunk they put in office.

 

[MotF Bane]

Math fail.

Lulz.

 

[bamacre]

Uhmm, it really isn't. You either believe that Obama was born in the USA, you believe he was not born in the USA or you don't believe either because you aren't sure. Saying otherwise would be like saying that agnostics believe in god because they aren't sure.

As someone who has worked in this field for >10 years, I can assure you, when analyzing data, you don't lump in answers like "don't know, unsure, refused" with others.

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Lulz.

 

[bamacre]

:biggrin::biggrin:

 

[Hayabusa Rider]

Uhmm, it really isn't. You either believe that Obama was born in the USA, you believe he was not born in the USA or you don't believe either because you aren't sure. Saying otherwise would be like saying that agnostics believe in god because they aren't sure.

Why didn't he just say that 51% don't believe Obama was born in the US? 51% don't believe it. 28% do. The remainder is uncertain.

Whatever though. It's semantics and at least 51% are idiots about this. If you want to toss in the difference then be my guest.

If however someone said 51% of people do not believe in God, 28% say they do and 21% say they're unsure, you're going to have a pretty tough sell saying the first group is the same as the last.

You'll note the article cited was worded to be completely unambiguous.

 

[fskimospy]

As someone who has worked in this field for >10 years, I can assure you, when analyzing data, you don't lump in answers like "don't know, unsure, refused" with others.

I work in statistics too. My answer was not that it would be a good idea for analysis purposes, but it is definitely a reasonable and rational description of the data, and not any sort of math fail.

EDIT: To be clearer, the reason you don't lump 'unsure' in with 'yes' or 'no' is that you lose the nuance in the data that 'unsure' is supposed to provide. The point of this figure however is to show how fucking stupid people are that they don't know a clear and incontestable fact. 'unsure' is only marginally less stupid than 'not born in america' and so it's quite reasonable to view that as a distinction without a difference.

 

[Zebo]

That's actually good since 90% of all people are stupid.

His mother was obviously not one of them. She had clairvoyance enough to publish his birth in newspaper in HI knowing Obama would be president one day.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

looking at the actual polling data...

1% called themselves "very liberal" so that is 4 people. Yet the question about birth has the "very liberal" with a 70-30 split with the 30% saying yes he was. the "somewhat liberal" has 33% saying no he wasn't. Sounds to me like their sample is flawed.... OR the "journalist" didn't actually look into the polling and just pulled out something he could make a headline with in hopes people won't look at the actual data.

 

[fskimospy]

looking at the actual polling data...

1% called themselves "very liberal" so that is 4 people. Yet the question about birth has the "very liberal" with a 70-30 split with the 30% saying yes he was. the "somewhat liberal" has 33% saying no he wasn't. Sounds to me like their sample is flawed.... OR the "journalist" didn't actually look into the polling and just pulled out something he could make a headline with in hopes people won't look at the actual data.

Hey math whiz, it's called rounding. There were probably 5 people who identified as 'very liberal', which rounds down to 1%. In case you ever wondered how people in polls of 1029 adults somehow got out to those nice even numbers, this would be why that is too.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Hey math whiz, it's called rounding. There were probably 5 people who identified as 'very liberal', which rounds down to 1%. In case you ever wondered how people in polls of 1029 adults somehow got out to those nice even numbers, this would be why that is too.

hey genius - 5 doesn't do 70-30 either.... but I'm no "whiz"

 

[fskimospy]

hey genius - 5 doesn't do 70-30 either.... but I'm no "whiz"

haha, fair enough. It's still rounding though.

 

[bamacre]

I work in statistics too. My answer was not that it would be a good idea for analysis purposes, but it is definitely a reasonable and rational description of the data, and not any sort of math fail.

EDIT: To be clearer, the reason you don't lump 'unsure' in with 'yes' or 'no' is that you lose the nuance in the data that 'unsure' is supposed to provide. The point of this figure however is to show how fucking stupid people are that they don't know a clear and incontestable fact. 'unsure' is only marginally less stupid than 'not born in america' and so it's quite reasonable to view that as a distinction without a difference.

You can show how stupid people are by being honest, 51% is a really high number, IMHO.

But the GOP doesn't have a monopoly on stupidity, far from it.

Edit: The OP allowed the topic of the thread be diverted by his own shenanigan.

 

[xj0hnx]

I don't know who to be more leery of the 51% that think he was born abroad, or the people still polling this stupid question for political means. I'd also like to know who commissioned that poll.

 

[Lanyap]

It's the old people.

 

[bamacre]

looking at the actual polling data...

1% called themselves "very liberal" so that is 4 people.

That question pisses me off every time I see it, and I see it a lot. This is basically how that question is asked...

Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal?

For people like me, someone who is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, that question makes no sense. But I don't write the questionnaires.

 

[zsdersw]

If 1.5 chickens can lay 1.5 eggs in 1.5 days, a pound of butter weighs 1.5 pounds.. according to 64% of Americans.

2 in 5 Americans believe that tomatoes are neither a fruit nor a vegetable but are, instead, a vegetafruit.

45% of Americans believe dihydrogen monoxide is inherently carcinogenic.

85% of Americans don't know the definition of "carcinogenic".

14% of all people know that statistics can be created to prove anything to anyone.

Oddly, only 5% of participants in a study conducted by Coca-Cola think "Hidden Valley Ranch Cola" would be a good product.