Question Windows on ARM: any chance for the desktop?

[thedighubs]

Good day dear friends,

For more than ten years, Microsoft has been struggling with Windows notebooks with ARM processors. But that's history I guess.

Now, there are attractive devices with the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite processor. Well afaik the new Windows-on-ARM notebooks are primarily aimed at potential MacBook buyers. They are intended to entice the latter to Windows or at least prevent frustrated Windows users from switching to macOS.

If we come to the tech factors: The new Windows-on-ARM notebooks run much longer on battery power than x86 laptops with AMD chips.

Would you mind taking such a new CPU?
What is your opinion here?

Look forward to hearing from you

 

[adroc_thurston]

The new Windows-on-ARM notebooks run much longer on battery power than x86 laptops with AMD chips.

they kinda don't and LNL exists anyway.

 

[thedighubs]

good day dear adroc_thurston

thank you for the reply. Food for thougths

 

[mikeymikec]

Now, there are attractive devices with the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite processor. Well afaik the new Windows-on-ARM notebooks are primarily aimed at potential MacBook buyers. They are intended to entice the latter to Windows or at least prevent frustrated Windows users from switching to macOS.

If we come to the tech factors: The new Windows-on-ARM notebooks run much longer on battery power than x86 laptops with AMD chips.

Are a significant percentage of Windows users frustrated about battery life? Of that percentage, how many care about x86 app performance (which ARM sucks at, AFAIK, most likely the reason why Apple clean-broke from x86)?

IMO one needs to ask why Windows users use Windows. AFAIK the answers are:

1 - familiarity
2 - compatibility / lock-in with old apps / hardware

I don't think there are going to be any more "killer apps" that are going to sell a new processor architecture, and I think that's what Windows on ARM needs... or Microsoft imitates Apple again and kills Windows on x86 for uh reasons, but IMO Microsoft would be betting the farm on this strategy as well as throwing OEMs under the bus, and I think they've been spending trust with their users ever since releasing Windows 8 rather than building trust.

I think Microsoft has been banking on "AI" to perform a soft maybe-migration to ARM ("soft" being users want AI so they choose Windows on ARM hardware, so OEMs follow where the money's going), which is the reason why for example Recall exists (kinda). IMO it's only a matter of time before mainstream "AI" runs its course as a fad and becomes a niche subscription service.

It would make sense for Microsoft to maintain a viable Windows on ARM service in a potentially volatile time in the hardware market, if Microsoft can be bothered to do any meaningful QA on Windows.

 

[Doug S]

What problem does Windows on ARM solve? It isn't better at running native Windows apps, at best it does that equally well with x86. It is clearly worse at running x86 Windows apps, and there aren't any ARM only Windows apps so its disadvantage isn't mirrored by the competition.

There's nothing inherent in the ARM ISA that makes it more power efficient than x86. The x86 duopoly has just never cared (and probably never will care) about efficiency as much as Apple does - and as noted LNL does a pretty decent job of matching Qualcomm ARM laptops efficiency wise.

I'd argue Windows on ARM has always been a solution looking for a problem. For Microsoft the problem is "some of our userbase is gazing longingly at the fanless Macbook Air" but the current crop of ARM Windows laptops doesn't even fully solve that problem - they all have a fan. For Qualcomm the problem is "the smartphone market is saturated so we need new markets to expand into". Unfortunately for Qualcomm, their ARM designs possess no inherent competitive advantage over Intel & AMD, and one huge competitive disadvantage when it comes to running x86 Windows binaries. They can't compete on price because stealing Celeron market share would hurt their margins, so they have to attack the premium segment.

When the floodgates are opened to other ARM competitors they won't all have Qualcomm sized margins to protect (Mediatek) meaning competition from below, and you never know what ARM competitors might out-premium Qualcomm - perhaps Nvidia with their GPU and AI advantage, or possibly even Apple if Microsoft decides the best way to keep Windows users from defecting to macOS to get a Macbook Air is to fund a Windows GPU driver and fully support installing native Windows on Macbook Air and other AS Macs. Qualcomm won't make Windows on ARM a success, but maybe some combination of the above does to enough of an extent for Microsoft to decide to keep it around.

 

[Thibsie]

x86 binaries are a problem.
Arm drivers are probably way more of a problem.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I think WinARM will carve a sizeable niche for itself in the market, not the least because Microsoft wants to ensure its success. Will it displace x86 someday? Maybe. Maybe not. I do not dislike cool running powerful devices. I have seen first hand what the M1 SoC can do in Microsoft Excel (it's blazing fast). So if suddenly Microsoft and the OEMs get this bright idea of pitching better TCO to corporates due to much lesser power consumption of ARM devices in typical office environments, that could spell serious trouble for x86.

I had a deadline to meet and my task was to provide some important data for a survey. There were 800,000 rows of data to process. Excel took 25 minutes on a Core i5-12500 and then Excel froze because probably Windows so I had to spend another 10 or maybe 15 minutes doing the same thing in LibreCalc. I could hear the fans roaring in the quietness of the night. At that moment, I sure wished I had my M1 laptop with me in the office. Would have saved a good deal of time for me.

 

[Doug S]

Arm drivers are probably way more of a problem.

Drivers for what?

What does the average PC user need drivers for that aren't included by the OEM in the preinstalled Windows load? Drivers for everything on the motherboard, and the dGPU (if any) will be included in the OEM load. I've mentioned before the stats (outdated, it would be even higher now) that over 90% of PCs are NEVER opened. The mainstream PC consumer isn't adding mystery PCIe cards that need drivers, or even upgrading RAM.

For them "expansion" begins and ends at USB, and even that is being supplanted more and more by stuff the PC talks to via wifi or bluetooth. Most of that stuff will be keyboards/mice (covered by generic USB HID drivers or the BT equivalent) or USB storage (covered by generic USB storage drivers) A printer is the only thing I can think of that might need a driver that may not be available for ARM, though the days of the "winprinter" are fortunately in the past (I think?) with most supporting wifi and IPP.

Now sure from the perspective of people here, many of whom who are tinkerers who build their systems from part and are constantly swapping stuff around, it is easy to imagine getting caught short if you buy the latest Nvidia GPU and find its ARM driver sucks or worse isn't available yet, or you're doing something less than mainstream like attaching monitors using USB-C or TB and find the drivers your OEM included have broken/no support for that. Those ARM PCs aren't for you, and may never be.

 

[Doug S]

I think WinARM will carve a sizeable niche for itself in the market, not the least because Microsoft wants to ensure its success.

Why do you think Microsoft really cares about the success of ARM Windows? It is a hassle for them to support other ISAs, and when they have in the past they've abandoned them all (including ARM the first time around in the Windows 8 days)

I think the only reason they decided to renew support for ARM is because Qualcomm came to them with a bag of cash that would defray all their development/support costs so it was a no lose proposition. They'll ride the train as long they can, but if they decide its market share is too small to be worth it it will suffer the same fate as the ports to i860, MIPS, PPC, Alpha, Itanium, and ARM before it.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Why do you think Microsoft really cares about the success of ARM Windows? It is a hassle for them to support other ISAs, and when they have in the past they've abandoned them all (including ARM the first time around in the Windows 8 days)

You don't use Win11 probably so you don't know how it is becoming more and more like MacOS (annoying). It's like Microsoft hired a bunch of ex-Apple software engineers and UI designers and told them, make Windows great again! Except it's just bewildering existing users with disruptive changes they didn't ask for.

Windows 11 - The Bits That Look Like A Mac

Windows 11 has borrowed a few interface ideas from macOS. See how the new operating system looks here.

www.forbes.com

That article is old. Win11 is more intrusive and problematic than ever. Microsoft is hell bent on trying to make its Surface line succeed and the only thing they can think of is to copy Apple but in the worst way possible.

 

[adroc_thurston]

You don't use Win11 probably so you don't know how it is becoming more and more like MacOS (annoying).

No it's like a badly edited badly themed Plasma 5 setup.

 

[poke01]

You don't use Win11 probably so you don't know how it is becoming more and more like MacOS (annoying). It's like Microsoft hired a bunch of ex-Apple software engineers and UI designers and told them, make Windows great again! Except it's just bewildering existing users with disruptive changes they didn't ask for.

Windows 11 - The Bits That Look Like A Mac

Windows 11 has borrowed a few interface ideas from macOS. See how the new operating system looks here.

www.forbes.com

That article is old. Win11 is more intrusive and problematic than ever. Microsoft is hell bent on trying to make its Surface line succeed and the only thing they can think of is to copy Apple but in the worst way possible.

wow that article is outdated but WIndows 11 is nothing like macOS. Although, now macOS does have better widgets than windows 11 as you now place them on your desktop.

 

[Thibsie]

wow that article is outdated but WIndows 11 is nothing like macOS. Although, now macOS does have better widgets than windows 11 as you now place them on your desktop.

But macOS "control panel" is utter crap IMO.

 

[perry mason]

Surprised by some of the doubt expressed here. Nvidia is about to roll out ARM processors combined with its GPUs. Qualcomm’s one weakness has been its GPU (as compared to LnL or any M-Series Mac). Apple plays in a high margin space, but already the laptops dominate among white collar types, many of whom run Windows 11 through Parallels (a seamless, performant experience for most).

A side note on LnL. LnL is not generally as efficient at similar performance levels as many of the X-Elite laptops. And, Intel has abandoned the LnL project anyway. They can’t afford it. Oops.

Someone asked what problem ARM solves. Heat, noise, power, what problem isn’t there? Apple embarrassed the industry with the M-Series and there’s much mindshare to recapture.

x86 can have all the theoretical ability in the world to be low power, but it’s a duopoly. One is a volume giant teetering on insolvency with design issues unless serious changes occur, and the other designs primarily for high power data center uses. This means that other designers have ample room to create and market superior CPUs on different ISAs for consumer and corporate use cases. Win 11 ARM makes that possible. Bring Nvidia’s drivers to the mix and a key missing piece arrives.

My prediction is that outside of data centers, corporate laptops are the other market driver by volume and revenue and here is where the attack will come. These laptops are ripe for the taking by ARM designs, if they can be serviced at the same or reduced cost. Intel’s margins will be squeezed in very uncomfortable ways… ways that may cause a breakup, which could ironically allow others to use the foundries to make their ARM competitors.

DIY may be the last to go, but it’s a niche.

 

[MS_AT]

Someone asked what problem ARM solves. Heat, noise, power, what problem isn’t there?

Problem is, as you have yourself spotted

Apple embarrassed the industry with the M-Series and there’s much mindshare to recapture.

ARM != Apple. Windows/Linux != MacOS.

Bring Nvidia’s drivers to the mix and a key missing piece arrives.

You mean these drivers that have been giving people headaches for months? Also, surprisingly Jensen was very quiet about N1X and the like during the keynote. Maybe we have to wait until CES for the announcement.

 

[poke01]

I actually think the best WoA player would be AMD.

 

[igor_kavinski]

I actually think the best WoA player would be AMD.

Version 1.0 may not be that great but if they stick with it, 3.0 or 4.0 will be where they strike gold.

And since they listen to customers and their concerns about the most common pain points, I'm betting they will do something great for x86 compatibility.

 

[mikeymikec]

many of whom run Windows 11 through Parallels (a seamless, performant experience for most).

Apple Silicon Macs Gain x86 Emulation Capability, Run x86 Windows Apps on macOS

Parallels has announced the introduction of x86 emulation support in Parallels Desktop 20.2.0 for Apple Silicon Macs. This new feature enables users to run x86-based virtual machines on their M-series Mac computers, addressing a longstanding limitation since Apple's transition to its custom...

www.techpowerup.com

However, Parallels is transparent about the current limitations of this preview release. Performance is notably slow, with Windows boot times ranging from 2 to 7 minutes, and overall system responsiveness remains low.

I'd also like to point out that you apparently regard "good enough" to be a valid argument on your side of the street, but it's not a valid argument from the other side.

Qualcomm’s one weakness has been its GPU

A weakness for whom? Let's say your average user uses Windows for basic productivity work and standard consuming behaviour like social networking. That's going to be noticeably improved with a better GPU?

Btw, I'm not saying Windows/ARM will never catch on, I'm saying it's up against a "good enough" incumbent, which has been enough to sink many would-be competitors in capitalism. If it can do better for basic uses at say two-thirds of the price, then those computer makers are cooking with gas. If they want to compete at price parity or worse then their benefits have got to be sufficiently enticing to the users who want those benefits. I for example have a >10 year old Broadwell laptop for occasional use and the battery life is fine for my needs despite the fact that it's just as old as the laptop is so obviously its life has degraded. I would be nervous about changing to an ARM laptop because while my everyday personal app needs could probably be catered for natively, I've been using x86-compiled apps for nearly 30 years, and two apps I continue to use are now >15 years old. I know from experience that emulation is rarely flawless so if some emulated app starts crashing out because it's making funky system calls that the emulator doesn't like, then that's a problem, isn't it?

I've only seen a couple of Windows ARM laptops and their performance suuuuuucked (AFAIK no emulation was involved either). Admittedly, they probably were competitors to Celeron-N types which also suck. I also haven't seen a single Windows ARM computer put through some serious benchmarking and compared to a price-parity x86 counterpart.

I also wonder if it's a potential problem if there isn't a decent ARM option at every price segment of the Windows hardware market (which is far more diverse than the Apple market), and the ARM alternative has to be compelling and profitable to make/sell in every segment. If it doesn't compete like that, then it might only get a foothold on the market rather than take it.

As you say, Intel is floundering. Maybe the x86 market will implode so the choice might end up being very subpar x86 options vs virtual no-brainer ARM options for most people. However I have the feeling that the powers that be will deem Intel "too big to fail".

 

[jpiniero]

ARM != Apple. Windows/Linux != MacOS.

Yeah. Microsoft (OEMs?) think that people are buying Macs because of it's battery life and fanless performance. When in reality, it's to get away from Windows.

 

[Jan Olšan]

I actually think the best WoA player would be AMD.

No, AMD would be the best x86 laptop chip maker if it did similarly low-power and standby-friendly SoC design as the phone-origin ARM vendor SoCs have. Without that there is no point to switching the ISA (because the ARM advantage is in the SoC designs and behaviour, not in cores' ISA). And if they do that, there is also no point to change the ISA because you already have the benefits.

Honestly, I think it could be cool or even good if there were two ISAs in the Windows platform with equal share and support, long-term. What I don't want is one of them to kick the other out with us ending just with one again (and in the worst case, without all that nice long-term compatibility).

 

[gdansk]

Yeah. Microsoft (OEMs?) think that people are buying Macs because of it's battery life and fanless performance. When in reality, it's to get away from Windows.

Isn't it both? But Apple is stepping toward making the operating system annoying. With unstoppable updates with notifications that reappear, adverts for Apple services in settings, and needless iOS-ification of applications. The new settings app is a good example of this downgrade in both Windows 11 and MacOS 13.

The problem for Windows is manifold: hardware available isn't as efficient or fast, Microsoft cannot throw away backward compatibility, many components have no ARM drivers and the majority of their ecosystem will not leave x86 for a long time. Then on top of that Microsoft decides it is best to turn it into adware garbage which drives away some users.

 

[mikeymikec]

Yeah. Microsoft (OEMs?) think that people are buying Macs because of it's battery life and fanless performance. When in reality, it's to get away from Windows.

Or they simply like Macs.

The problem for Windows is manifold: hardware available isn't as efficient or fast, Microsoft cannot throw away backward compatibility, many components have no ARM drivers and the majority of their ecosystem will not leave x86 for a long time. Then on top of that Microsoft decides it is best to turn it into adware garbage which drives away some users.

many-fold*

I think Microsoft could throw backwards (which I take to mean x86) compatibility out of the window. Many (most?) software makers would love them for it, it would allow software makers to get out of lifetime licences without breaking a legal sweat, sell more users rental licensing only, a lot of legacy hardware gets kicked to the curb and users forced to upgrade to newer options, etc. However I think Microsoft would have to plan such a migration carefully: End users and hardware/software makers would have to have their heads in the sand to avoid the messaging, and a far-off date picked to give everyone plenty of time to make sure they're ready. Say ten years' time. And when the migration has happened, the 'new' system has been tested *very* thoroughly, for say 5 of the years before the deadline.

What I have my doubts about is whether Microsoft can plan their Windows competently to achieve such a migration successfully, and also whether they would bother doing the kind of widespread testing that made Windows a decent product >10 years ago.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Honestly, I think it could be cool or even good if there were two ISAs in the Windows platform with equal share and support, long-term. What I don't want is one of them to kick the other out with us ending just with one again (and in the worst case, without all that nice long-term compatibility).

AMD can prevent that by making hybrid ISA cores. ARM and x86 cores that share caches and OS can switch to whichever the application code desires.

 

[Doug S]

You don't use Win11 probably so you don't know how it is becoming more and more like MacOS (annoying). It's like Microsoft hired a bunch of ex-Apple software engineers and UI designers and told them, make Windows great again! Except it's just bewildering existing users with disruptive changes they didn't ask for.

Microsoft has been tilting towards Apple in how they make things look since forever. When Jobs came back and brought NeXT's OS with him that became OS X and they got the "lickable" icons a couple years later Microsoft trots out XP with a generous helping of eye candy layered over the tired gray Windows look. The UI was functionally the same as Win2K/ME but all the buttons were colorful and rendered.

Microsoft's screwing with the how the UI actually functions rather than just giving it a layer of eye candy hasn't been an Apple aping thing but part of their deluded dream of having a single UI that unifies the desktop and tablet experience. That's why you got the abomination that was Windows 8, that they were forced to mostly walk back with Windows 10. You're right I haven't seen Windows 11 but I thought it was basically a rehash of Windows 10 - that the only reason it got a new version number was because they wanted to require TPM 2.0.

I suppose it would be on par for Microsoft to hit a dud and continue the pattern from ME -> Vista -> 8 where every other release is widely hated.