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Will YOU survive the coming bird flu pandemic?

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No, and I don't care. And to be honest, that "expert" doesn't know any better then you or I how to survive a plague on that scale. How anyone can be an "expert" in regards to cataclysmic events that occur maybe once every few generations is beyond me.

This reeks of the same mentality associated with people who hear it is going to snow 2" and then they raid the store for milk and toilet paper because the weatherman told them a blizzard was coming. The bottom line is, even if the blizzard does come, do you really need to have 15 rolls of toilet paper because you won;t make it to the store for 3 days? NO!
Click to expand...

Yeah, nice logic there... too bad you're using examples where people don't do that. I've lived in Canada for 30 years, been through tons of blizzard warnings, and i've NEVER seen anybody stock up on 15 rolls of toilet paper because they think there's going to be a blizzard.

And the expert knows more about it than you because they're obviously more educated. You don't need to go through a cataclysmic events to know exactly what's going to happen. It's called predictions, and it's based on logical assumptions. Will it turn out exactly as how it's predicted? Most likely not, but it's better than not having any idea.
[/quote]

Oh yeah? Well I live in Washington DC, capital of the free world, and people here DO in fact do just what I said. Freakin Morons if you ask me. So you Canadians stay all logical up there with your mounties and molson beer and Rick Moranis films, the real men are down here in crazy town! WOO!

As for education, I have a degree in chemisty, I've spent many years developing stealth technology for the navy at the Naval Research Lab, and am more then half way through my law degree. Furthermore, I've met more then my fair share of dumbasses who have the letters "PhD" behind their name. (Sidenote: for those who don't know, a person with a PhD knows a whole lot about a very teeny eensy weency area of their field. PhD's most certainly are not experts in everything with which they are associated. So the fact that this expert has a PhD and works in a government organization that deals with infectious diseases does not mean he knows jack about bird flu. Besides, I thought it was well established that the U.S. Govenrment doesn't necessarily employ the best and the brightest...hell, just look at our president)

Also, I am well aware of how prediction (aka GUESSING) works. But riddle me this, my fine Canadian friend, why can't we predict the weather with any degree of accuracy after trying to do so for literally hundreds if not thousands of years? Because the weather is unpredictable! Why do drug companies have to spend millions if not billions of dollars on research to find one drug? Because chemistry is (in general) UN predicatable. Indeed, Complex systems and interactions like chemical interactions, plagues, the weather, etc. are unpredictable by their very nature. Heck, we can hardly even predict the direction a forest fire will go because tiny changes in wind direction throw everything off.

That said, I feel I am well qualified to comment on the credibility of Mr. "I'm so expert I'll appear on Oprah and Scare a bunch of people." People with his creds don;t go on a talk show to inform people of an incoming pandemic. People like him publish their findings and then report them to skeeving politicians who chew those findings around a bit before they serve em up like soft serve to the American public.

And you know what they say about assumptions... they make an Ass out of U and Me
 
Originally posted by: wvtalbot
Originally posted by: Feldenak
Originally posted by: Looney
Well i don't know how credible those experts are, if they're repeating the obvious:


Butcher also said that there has yet to be a proven case in which one person is known to have passed the illness on to another.
Click to expand...

Um yeah... we know that... that's the concern, that IF it mutates and can be transmitted to humans to humans, that's when the problem starts.

Back to the unlikely scenario of those migratory birds carrying avian flu to a poultry house somewhere in Kansas.
Click to expand...


It doesn't have to get to the US for it to be a problem. In this day and age with such mass air transit, if this becomes airborned, you can bet it'll reach the US as well.

"For it to become dangerous to humans, it has to go through a pretty significant genetic change. If you put this in perspective, it's not going to happen. For a person to be infected now, it appears that the exposure level has to be astronomical," Butcher said.
Click to expand...

Um, it has gone through astronomical change... for centuries, bird flu was just isolated to bird flu. But it's mutated and now goes from bird to humans... that's a pretty big fvcking change right there.
Click to expand...

Ya know...I think wvtalbot is a conspiracy nutjob in regards to the bird flu but I do agree with him on one thing. Really, do you wear adult diapers or something when you watch the news?
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A day in the life of Looney.

Wake up.
Turn on Fox News.
Wet Pants.
Check under bed for Al-queda.
Kill a few chickens just in case.
Change pants.
Eat lunch consiting of air and multivitamins since everything causes cancer.
Post lunch cry.
Turn on News again.
Wet Pants.
Post on anadtech newsgroup using saran wrap covered keyboard.
Check 30 year stock of tamiflu.
Change pants.
Eat Dinner, freeze dried vegetables, yum!
Spend next 4 hours reading about how the world is going to end.
Cry self to sleep.
Click to expand...

:thumbsup:

 
Originally posted by: aidanjm
Saw a fascinating & disturbing Oprah special on this. The expert on the show suggested that to be prepared you might want to have the following things:

-enough food in the house (dried, canned, preserved) to last you at least 6 weeks. (So you can "hole up" and survive in the event of a total societal meltdown).

-anti-virals work best if you are already taking them at the point of infection. So by all means secure a supply of tamiflu or even other antivirals (possibly even hiv/aids meds, which may have effects on deadly enzymes produced by the avaian influenza virus)

-There are about 100,000 mechanical ventilators in the USA. This will not be even remotely enough machines to cope with the pandemic. So if you have a few hundred thousand $ to spare (or whatever they cost), by all means pick up one of these things, it may keep someone in your family alive.

-weapons, items for self-defence. When the pandemic hits, it will be like Katrina, but in every town in every state in every country around the world. More dead bodies than people know what to do with. There will likely be shortages of essential meds for things like diabetes, cancer. Also, there will be no cavalry. Basically about 7-10% of the population is expected to perish. Most vulnerable will be those in the prime of their life - the 20 to 40 year olds.

Do YOU have what it takes to survive?



edit: even after seeing the show, and hearing all these experts say a pandemic is inevitable, it still seems so surreal. maybe this will be like Katrina, with people warning all those years about the weak levees, and no one does anything until one day they burst.

Link
Click to expand...

yes my computer... + eBay!
 
Originally posted by: patentman
No, and I don't care. And to be honest, that "expert" doesn't know any better then you or I how to survive a plague on that scale. How anyone can be an "expert" in regards to cataclysmic events that occur maybe once every few generations is beyond me.

This reeks of the same mentality associated with people who hear it is going to snow 2" and then they raid the store for milk and toilet paper because the weatherman told them a blizzard was coming. The bottom line is, even if the blizzard does come, do you really need to have 15 rolls of toilet paper because you won;t make it to the store for 3 days? NO!
Click to expand...

Yeah, nice logic there... too bad you're using examples where people don't do that. I've lived in Canada for 30 years, been through tons of blizzard warnings, and i've NEVER seen anybody stock up on 15 rolls of toilet paper because they think there's going to be a blizzard.

And the expert knows more about it than you because they're obviously more educated. You don't need to go through a cataclysmic events to know exactly what's going to happen. It's called predictions, and it's based on logical assumptions. Will it turn out exactly as how it's predicted? Most likely not, but it's better than not having any idea.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah? Well I live in Washington DC, capital of the free world, and people here DO in fact do just what I said. Freakin Morons if you ask me. So you Canadians stay all logical up there with your mounties and molson beer and Rick Moranis films, the real men are down here in crazy town! WOO!

As for education, I have a degree in chemisty, I've spent many years developing stealth technology for the navy at the Naval Research Lab, and am more then half way through my law degree. Furthermore, I've met more then my fair share of dumbasses who have the letters "PhD" behind their name. (Sidenote: for those who don't know, a person with a PhD knows a whole lot about a very teeny eensy weency area of their field. PhD's most certainly are not experts in everything with which they are associated. So the fact that this expert has a PhD and works in a government organization that deals with infectious diseases does not mean he knows jack about bird flu. Besides, I thought it was well established that the U.S. Govenrment doesn't necessarily employ the best and the brightest...hell, just look at our president)

Also, I am well aware of how prediction (aka GUESSING) works. But riddle me this, my fine Canadian friend, why can't we predict the weather with any degree of accuracy after trying to do so for literally hundreds if not thousands of years? Because the weather is unpredictable! Why do drug companies have to spend millions if not billions of dollars on research to find one drug? Because chemistry is (in general) UN predicatable. Indeed, Complex systems and interactions like chemical interactions, plagues, the weather, etc. are unpredictable by their very nature. Heck, we can hardly even predict the direction a forest fire will go because tiny changes in wind direction throw everything off.

That said, I feel I am well qualified to comment on the credibility of Mr. "I'm so expert I'll appear on Oprah and Scare a bunch of people." People with his creds don;t go on a talk show to inform people of an incoming pandemic. People like him publish their findings and then report them to skeeving politicians who chew those findings around a bit before they serve em up like soft serve to the American public.

And you know what they say about assumptions... they make an Ass out of U and Me
[/quote]

*clap* *clap* *clap*
 
Originally posted by: patentman
No, and I don't care. And to be honest, that "expert" doesn't know any better then you or I how to survive a plague on that scale. How anyone can be an "expert" in regards to cataclysmic events that occur maybe once every few generations is beyond me.

This reeks of the same mentality associated with people who hear it is going to snow 2" and then they raid the store for milk and toilet paper because the weatherman told them a blizzard was coming. The bottom line is, even if the blizzard does come, do you really need to have 15 rolls of toilet paper because you won;t make it to the store for 3 days? NO!
Click to expand...

Yeah, nice logic there... too bad you're using examples where people don't do that. I've lived in Canada for 30 years, been through tons of blizzard warnings, and i've NEVER seen anybody stock up on 15 rolls of toilet paper because they think there's going to be a blizzard.

And the expert knows more about it than you because they're obviously more educated. You don't need to go through a cataclysmic events to know exactly what's going to happen. It's called predictions, and it's based on logical assumptions. Will it turn out exactly as how it's predicted? Most likely not, but it's better than not having any idea.
Click to expand...

Oh yeah? Well I live in Washington DC, capital of the free world, and people here DO in fact do just what I said. Freakin Morons if you ask me. So you Canadians stay all logical up there with your mounties and molson beer and Rick Moranis films, the real men are down here in crazy town! WOO!

As for education, I have a degree in chemisty, I've spent many years developing stealth technology for the navy at the Naval Research Lab, and am more then half way through my law degree. Furthermore, I've met more then my fair share of dumbasses who have the letters "PhD" behind their name. (Sidenote: for those who don't know, a person with a PhD knows a whole lot about a very teeny eensy weency area of their field. PhD's most certainly are not experts in everything with which they are associated. So the fact that this expert has a PhD and works in a government organization that deals with infectious diseases does not mean he knows jack about bird flu. Besides, I thought it was well established that the U.S. Govenrment doesn't necessarily employ the best and the brightest...hell, just look at our president)

Also, I am well aware of how prediction (aka GUESSING) works. But riddle me this, my fine Canadian friend, why can't we predict the weather with any degree of accuracy after trying to do so for literally hundreds if not thousands of years? Because the weather is unpredictable! Why do drug companies have to spend millions if not billions of dollars on research to find one drug? Because chemistry is (in general) UN predicatable. Indeed, Complex systems and interactions like chemical interactions, plagues, the weather, etc. are unpredictable by their very nature. Heck, we can hardly even predict the direction a forest fire will go because tiny changes in wind direction throw everything off.

That said, I feel I am well qualified to comment on the credibility of Mr. "I'm so expert I'll appear on Oprah and Scare a bunch of people." People with his creds don;t go on a talk show to inform people of an incoming pandemic. People like him publish their findings and then report them to skeeving politicians who chew those findings around a bit before they serve em up like soft serve to the American public.

And you know what they say about assumptions... they make an Ass out of U and Me
[/quote]

very well put
 
I ain't worried. My dad has the hook ups at CDC. He'd get something to help us out. As for the looting, not sure if I'd survive that since we don't really own any guns. Might get pwned there. Hard to go GTA on someones ass when you got a bat and they got a gun. Though, using frozen paintballs in my paintball gun wtih the velocity at max could really injure someone. That might help.
 
ok, lets look at this rationaly, shall we.

every year we are told that some dissaster is going to happen and kill lots of people. SARS, Anthrax, WMD's, the list goes on. Thats why we prepare ourselvs, so that win the ****** really does hit the fan, we have "something" to fall back on.

Its the same reason we have insurance, so that if/when something happens you can deal with it.

and as stated earlier in this thread. all it would take to infect the world, (once the virus has mutated for human to human transfer.) Is a couple people on an airplane. and BAAM! wide spread death and chaos.

Now for the good news.
in order for a virus to be succesful it has to leave its host alive, after all if the host dies the virus dies. so after a while the virus will mutate into a form that is less harmfull, a pain in the ass still - but you might make it. So maybe by the time it hits the major nations, it will have softened a bit (like candy in the sun)
 
i call shens on the bird flu.

bird flu = next "y2k" scare.

will i survive a pandemic that will 90% not likely happen? yes.

fvck a bird flu.
 
Originally posted by: Looney
Originally posted by: MS Dawn
Fear mongering plain and simple. Unless everyone here has feathers. Yawn. 😛
Click to expand...

It's not fear mongering. This is a world wide concern... you think governments like killing millions of chicken in their nation and pissing off the farmers and people just for fun? Yeah, it's 'safe' right now... because it's difficult to transmit to humans and it doesn't transmit from human to human. But if somebody with the normal flu picks up bird flu, and the bird flu mutates with the normal flu and becomes airborne, we would literally have hundreds of millions if not billions of deaths.
Click to expand...

I don't think governments care one way or another about killing millions of chickens in their nation and pissing off people. In fact, many governments present day don't care one way or another about killing thousands of people. It's not unreasonable to consider that the drive to kill off all those chickens is more driven by a desire to keep the disease from spreading to healthy chickens than it is to save human lives.

To give an example of how much government cares about pissing off people, read up on the drive in the state of Florida to eliminate citrus canker. Over more than a decade, healthy citrus trees were cut down and burned on the weight of questionable speculation that citrus canker might spread out of control and destroy a large majority of Florida's commercial citrus crop. This continued for many years after it became clear the battle was already lost. Recently, the Wild Canker Hunt was ended and acknowledged as a lost cause, but way too late for people whose trees were gone without restitution.
 
Originally posted by: So
How is it that aidanjm falls for every scare story that comes along...is he just gullible?
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what other scare story have I fallen for recently? do tell, I'm interested to know.
 
If the death rate is really > 50%, then the "pandemic" is going to burn itself out very, very quickly. It's like Ebola - if the virus kills its host with that kind of lethality, it doesn't have time to spread. Maybe it'll kill me, maybe not, but there's not much I can do about it, especially if I get infected very early on (possible - my wife takes mass transit to work).

I'll admit I'm not terribly concerned, but I also think stocking up on some water and food is a good idea in general. A few crates of bottled water and some canned foods aren't that expensive ($100 for 6 weeks?) or space-consuming, even for apartment dwellers like us. Not sure about the personal defense items - I'm not opposed to gun ownership or anything, but it's sort of a hassle to get a firearms license and do the mandatory training and practice with a firearm so that you're more likely to kill an intruder rather than an innocent bystander. A tazer or stun gun might be reasonable (if they're legal around here - gotta check).

-Erwos
 
Oprah special.
Says it all.

No, it will not kill me. I doubt it will kill anyone on AT. I'll tell you what though, if it does kill me, I promise to never post here again. Ever.

Go worry about something else.
 
Originally posted by: aidanjm
Originally posted by: Squisher
this is how these people (academics) make the real money, by inventing a crisis.
Click to expand...

oh for fvck's sake, did it ever occur to you that these DOCTORS - i.e., people who have devoted their lives to caring for sick people - might actually be genuinely worried about an impending human catastrophe of untold proportions? :roll:
Click to expand...

did it ever occur to you that if all of these crises actually happened, we'd all have died many times over. Jeez, maybe K-Mart just saw a slump in sales of toilet roll and ammunition, and so bought a few scientists and doctors to invent a scare. Honestly, if this happens, I'll happily apologise for being wrong, but I find it hilarious that you are bothered by this.
 
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