Will VR fail?

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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
The problem is we already tried it once. Just like 3D. 3D is on its second flop now and lets just call it what it is, dead. And from the looks of it, the second VR attempt doesn't look any better. Because none of the real issues have been fixed since the first release. Its just another clumsy odd piece of equipment that doesn't fit in.
 

SLU Aequitas

Golden Member
Jul 13, 2007
1,252
26
91
You should remove your product emotions. There is a reality no matter if you like it or not.

I would like to use VR in games like Elite Dangerous too. But its not going to be more than a niche. And everyone isn't going to run out and buy it. Nor is everyone going to code support for it. I would be surprised if it can even reach SLI/CF segment level sales.

The problem is we already tried it once. Just like 3D. 3D is on its second flop now and lets just call it what it is, dead. And from the looks of it, the second VR attempt doesn't look any better. Because none of the real issues have been fixed since the first release. Its just another clumsy odd piece of equipment that doesn't fit in.

But you've just admitted that you haven't tried the current implementation. The current run of VR (DK2, Vive) is not even close to the same thing as passive experience of the 3D implementation for TVs/monitors. I'm not just saying you're dealing with apples/oranges, I'm saying you're dealing with apples to bricks.

I've used my DK2 for hours on end with Elite: Dangerous. It's the single biggest step forward in changing how we interact with games/media since we first got the screen. Seriously, I'm not even a big fan of ED, but the experience with the DK2 was the most vivid gaming experience I've had.

Seriously, some of the remarks here by people who haven't even used these devices are so far off target it's not funny, and it has nothing to do with "emotional investment" with the device (which I'm in the process of selling, my second [child] is on the way :)). Don't get me wrong, these devices are not perfect--heck, just look back in my post history for my own critique on the DK2, but don't just knock these devices with out at least trying/researching it a bit.
 

HeXen

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2009
7,835
37
91
I have a great idea guys, lets judge before trying a release version of a modern design! Because the past VR's failed and plus forming a firm opinion and decision before release is the right thing to do.

Will it fail in the market place? No one knows because so far, no one has said they saw into the future and it failed. However typically, most any gaming peripheral's success in the past has been based on the quality and number of game titles that are compatible with it.
 
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5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
5,549
0
71
www.techinferno.com
It's a simple formula for failure:

1. It's an aftermarket device that costs a lot of money and doesn't have broad software support--reminiscent of 3D glasses.
2. There isn't even a universal standard for VR as oculus and vive will be competing against one another and there's no guarantee of interoperability of game support between them.
3. They still induce motion sickness in a lot of individuals.
4. For many people, strapping a large headset on for hours of gaming is not comfortable.
5. History teaches us that any niche product that is expensive with little support tends to fail. VR has failed already in the past and has that stigma attached to it even if it is much improved now.
6. It has to compete against augmented reality which has a far bigger consumer appeal and application than VR does and isn't as bulky.

It's gonna fail guys, I wouldn't waste my time or money on it.
 

cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
25,661
15,161
136
I don't know about any of you, but I made up my mind about VR. I don't want it. I don't care how amazing it might be either. My reason is simple. I don't want to stick a helmet on my head, ever. My 3D glasses were a pain in the ass all by themselves, and they were just light weight glasses. Me + helmet = no chance.

I dont see it going away, the applications reach well beyond gaming and general entertainment too, think augmented, think workplace - lots and lots of potential everywhere, keep in mind we're all carrying a little super computer in our pockets these days, today is not that 20-years ago proof-of-concept attempt.
I believe VR/AR is going to hit in a BIG way.

Also :
VR
+
http://www.brobible.com/life/article/twerking-butt-virtual-reality-sex-toy/
=
too big to fail.
 
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moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,731
3,440
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I see a pattern and it is clear to me that the future holds some form of immersive, created reality that we (or our children) will enjoy. The repeated attempts of 3D glasses, various VR implementations, google glass etc all appear to me as a baby chick pecking at the inside of their egg, trying to get out. It takes a while, but it will happen. That time is not now with these bulky, silly ass headsets.
 

showb1z

Senior member
Dec 30, 2010
462
53
91
So none of you tried it, you're saying it will fail because they already tried it 20 years ago and for some reason you're comparing it to a silly gimmick like 3D TV's.
Yeah it's fate is sealed, somebody better go tell all the companies spending billions on this crap.
 

Magic Carpet

Diamond Member
Oct 2, 2011
3,477
233
106
It's a simple formula for failure:

1. It's an aftermarket device that costs a lot of money and doesn't have broad software support--reminiscent of 3D glasses.
2. There isn't even a universal standard for VR as oculus and vive will be competing against one another and there's no guarantee of interoperability of game support between them.
3. They still induce motion sickness in a lot of individuals.
4. For many people, strapping a large headset on for hours of gaming is not comfortable.
5. History teaches us that any niche product that is expensive with little support tends to fail. VR has failed already in the past and has that stigma attached to it even if it is much improved now.
6. It has to compete against augmented reality which has a far bigger consumer appeal and application than VR does and isn't as bulky.

It's gonna fail guys, I wouldn't waste my time or money on it.
Agreed.

So none of you tried it, you're saying it will fail because they already tried it 20 years ago and for some reason you're comparing it to a silly gimmick like 3D TV's.
Yeah it's fate is sealed, somebody better go tell all the companies spending billions won this crap.
Businesses are taking chances, that's natural. In my opinion, the technology 20 years forward is still not good enough for mass-adoption of these kind of devices. It's similar why you don't see professional simulators used in the military going mainstream. It's too expensive and very niche. Without the strong software support and mass-adoption it's going to be "exactly where it was"...

Now I'd rather experience something like that.
 
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4K_shmoorK

Senior member
Jul 1, 2015
464
43
91
Why do people assume us who doubt the success of VR have never tried it?

A buddy from university has had a second hand Oculus V2 Dev kit for several months now. Used it for about 20 min and while the peripheral aspect combined with the touted motion tracking of your noggin' is really cool, I'd much rather play on a screen TBH. There is a general lack of control when using the headset. The keyboard and mouse provides the user with a much more sophisticated way of manipulating and interacting with on-screen objects.

I'm sure VR will mature but like any new technology, forget about 80s and 90s VR they aren't in the same league, it will take time for the process to be viewed as a replacement for 'viewpanel' gaming.

Not to mention the thing on your head still looks and feels goofy. :sneaky:

So do those who cry *you've never used it*, have you actually used a headset? What were your impressions?

I am curious. If VR every got to the point of a wearable the size of google glass or something with built-in 8K OLED displays, I think everyone would be shoving their money down VR devs throats. :D
 

atticus14

Member
Apr 11, 2010
174
1
81
I think it will be wildly successful with consumers and businesses, but it'll take about 3-5 years for it to go more mainstream, simply because of affordability.

Anyone who hates the idea of VR has no imagination for its possibilities. In general the problems from years ago have been fixed. Image quality is up, latency is down and motion tracking is pretty accurate. So we have the basics that allow most people to enjoy it, now they just have to build upon that to further increase immersion but it's not like that is far off either. 4k mobile screens are already on their way and by 2017 GPUs should be able to handle the graphical load.
 

thesmokingman

Platinum Member
May 6, 2010
2,302
231
106
So none of you tried it, you're saying it will fail because they already tried it 20 years ago and for some reason you're comparing it to a silly gimmick like 3D TV's.
Yeah it's fate is sealed, somebody better go tell all the companies spending billions on this crap.


That's what they said about the automobile when everyone was riding horse carriages lol. Why would you go to the trouble of fabricating a car when you could just ride a horse? Zomg.
 

5150Joker

Diamond Member
Feb 6, 2002
5,549
0
71
www.techinferno.com
That's what they said about the automobile when everyone was riding horse carriages lol. Why would you go to the trouble of fabricating a car when you could just ride a horse? Zomg.

You're seriously going to compare something that has utility and improves peoples lives to a toy like VR? o_O VR could be great but falls short because of the bulky headset. Technology still needs to progress at least another 10 years to allow for much more miniaturization of the headset before it's really worth it.

Companies are making a big push for this because they need something new and flashy to generate potential long term revenue. They tried with 3D and failed so now they're latching on to VR. Thing is, for consumers overall, augmented reality offers far better utility because it's not nearly as bulky and you interact with objects in the real world and can put it to use for everyday applications. Microsoft's use of this is a great example of where this type of technology is headed. Even with AR right now, especially MS's solution, the FOV is limited as a result of current battery and processor technology so we're still several years away from ideal implementations.
 
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ShintaiDK

Lifer
Apr 22, 2012
20,378
145
106
That's what they said about the automobile when everyone was riding horse carriages lol. Why would you go to the trouble of fabricating a car when you could just ride a horse? Zomg.

And we had electric cars since 1880s. What does that tell you?

I can see someone have put all their eggs in the VR basket. And it must succeed at all cost.
 

thesmokingman

Platinum Member
May 6, 2010
2,302
231
106
You're seriously going to compare something that has utility and improves peoples lives to a toy like VR? o_O VR could be great but falls short because of the bulky headset. Technology still needs to progress at least another 10 years to allow for much more miniaturization of the headset before it's really worth it.

Companies are making a big push for this because they need something new and flashy to generate potential long term revenue. They tried with 3D and failed so now they're latching on to VR. Thing is, for consumers overall, augmented reality offers far better utility because it's not nearly as bulky and you interact with objects in the real world and can put it to use for everyday applications. Microsoft's use of this is a great example of where this type of technology is headed. Even with AR right now, especially MS's solution, the FOV is limited as a result of current battery and processor technology so we're still several years away from ideal implementations.


I find it hilarious and ironic, you guys that keep saying this is dead. I'd imagine most of the inventions that supplanted previous tech came with the same disgust by certain parties not open to change.
 

Magic Carpet

Diamond Member
Oct 2, 2011
3,477
233
106
"The hardware isn't final so none of the things are completely done," Microsoft executive Kudo Tsunoda said during a video appearance on Giant Bomb. "I think you're never going to get to full peripheral field of view, but certainly the hardware we have the field of view isn't exactly final. But I wouldn't say it's going to be hugely noticeably different either."
Thats dooming it to failure like 3dtv. Oculus isnt releasing the Rift until everything about it is up to standard, which is smart, I have a DK2 and while the experience is amazing at first it doesnt take long before you get sick of the awful resolution and would rather play games on a monitor. The FOV can easily ruin the Hololens after the honeymoon period wears off, without having a COMPLETE experience it ends up being a gimmick.
Yeah.

so we're still several years away from ideal implementations.
Looks like.

I find it hilarious and ironic, you guys that keep saying this is dead.
In its current form.
 
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Pariah

Elite Member
Apr 16, 2000
7,357
20
81
I find it hilarious and ironic, you guys that keep saying this is dead. I'd imagine most of the inventions that supplanted previous tech came with the same disgust by certain parties not open to change.

I don't think you truly understand the depth of issues that need to be addressed to make this a mainstream usable product. No one can predict if VR will eventually be successful. It may well be, but there is little doubt that the current generation of products is not going bring VR into the mainstream, any more than the first generation attempts did. Another forum poster (BSim500) posted an outstanding overview of the obstacles facing VR who clearly understands the technology, so I will post that here and let you have at it:

http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=37683960&postcount=60

Right now VR isn't anywhere near "good enough" for the amount of hype ascribed to it. Almost no-one owns a high-end rig capable of driving multiple high res display, whilst many people find the lower res VR units are less pleasant than sitting in front of a decent monitor given how close they sit to the eyes. Still a lot of issues to work out : dislike of headsets, headset weight / comfort over several hours (beyond a 10-20min demo), comfort during hot weather, "VR sensor fusion" (eyes + inner ear positioning) only works on rotation axis not translation axis (beyond simple leaning a few inches) whilst sitting down, ongoing motion sickness even without any latency, spectacle wearer's discomfort, light bleed around the nose area, overnight grid persistence issues, calibration issues, can't see input device (keys on keyboard) so maybe limited to a controller which changes / limits gameplay to "fit" the device, headset based surround sound less accurate than a 4-speaker setup but speakers do not "rotate" with your head leading to confusion, etc. Some claim they can "push their way through" motion sickness, but how many consumer entertainment devices are going to sell on the back of "ignore the vomit, it'll go away after 18 months of training!" which sounds more like a 1950's Soviet nuclear fallout survival manual than a gaming enhancement...

I think it's going to take longer than VR firms wish simply because half the "problem" isn't just technology, it's that human beings are inherently different with different eyesight, tolerances and visual likes / dislikes. From what I've heard, even if you perfect rotation axis (pitch, roll, yaw), you cannot perfect the translation axis (x, y, z body movements) in the same way that maintain perfect nausea free simulation, because as soon as you start moving more than 1-2ft at a time (running / strafing / falling / FPS style jump pads) then your inner ears obviously cannot produce the "motion" that matches what you see (and which your brain now has a greater expectation of feeling vs a 2D monitor given the accurate rotation simulation), then a number of people get motion sick again from the "split" that occurs whilst you physically remain stationary when only the rotation axis movements will have an accompanying inner ear body movement, but not translation movements (beyond leaning a few inches). Even if you manufactured some kind of 2D walking treadmill, A: It still couldn't cope with accurate portrayal of sudden vertical movement (falls, jump pads, etc), and B: That simply doesn't fit in with the psychology of how most gamers play (flop out on the couch / bed / chair to relax).

Likewise, there's more to visual discomfort than just motion sickness. In real life your eyes work to both focus and converge on a point in space (Accommodation-Convergence Reflex). Since the focus/converge distance is the same, your brain has since birth learned to "couple" the two response together (Vergence-Accommodation Coupling). Headsets completely break that natural reflex as your eyes will be focal locked to only one distance (eyeball to VR screen distance) whilst your brain has an opposing instinct of variable distance convergence when "tricked" with the 3D effect. This "Vergence-Accommodation Conflict" isn't motion sickness, it's an additional effect on top of that which a lot of people find plain unpleasant for more than a few minutes / seconds, causes eye-strain, headaches, etc, even with silky smooth jitter free 120fps. So there's far more to "VR comfort" than just "stuff up the fps to 90-120, eliminate the jitter and all will be well". The very nature of how headsets try and split the natural focal/convergence paired reflex coupling, plus general eyestrain for many of constant forced focus of mere inches away is actually extremely unnatural as to how human vision works in reality.

By the time "full ergonomic total immersion VR" is "properly" ready (which may not even involve headsets in the long run), yes every current GFX card and every current VR kit will long be as totally obsolete as the 1st gen 1x speed Mitsumi clamshell CD-ROM drives were when 8-16x speed DVD-burners came out. Everything in between now and that is really just varying stages of Alpha/Beta testing for the 0.07% of the PC market who even care about enhanced realism enough to buy a single 2D 4K screen today.
 

jackstar7

Lifer
Jun 26, 2009
11,679
1,944
126
I have only one VR-related gaming desire and that's to use a VR headset and a Novint Falcon together to play HL2 or a similar engine-efficient game and just see how that feels.

But I honestly think I might be too old to care about VR. I can let it be for the next generation to enjoy if it works well. I'll see you guys on the holodeck.
 

QuantumPion

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2005
6,010
1
76
I own a DK2. VR is awesome for certain genres (mainly driving/cockpit/simulator type games). I don't think it will take off for general gaming like FPS, though it may spur a new trend or revival of those mentioned types. Whether VR will take off for social/movie/live event stuff, who knows. The technology needs to mature more for those applications. I could see VR making 3D movies obsolete in a few years.
 

moonbogg

Lifer
Jan 8, 2011
10,731
3,440
136
Even if the technology worked perfectly, in every way, it would still be held back because we have to wear a helmet. It would be fun for a while, but once it starts irritating your face or head, there's only so much of that most people are willing to tolerate. I think we are at least 20 years away from a reasonable VR experience, because a tremendous amount of technological weight must first be lifted just to get rid of that helmet. I don't see it happening before then.
 

QuantumPion

Diamond Member
Jun 27, 2005
6,010
1
76
Even if the technology worked perfectly, in every way, it would still be held back because we have to wear a helmet. It would be fun for a while, but once it starts irritating your face or head, there's only so much of that most people are willing to tolerate. I think we are at least 20 years away from a reasonable VR experience, because a tremendous amount of technological weight must first be lifted just to get rid of that helmet. I don't see it happening before then.

I had no problem using the DK2 for extended periods comfort wise, and the CV1 is supposed to be even better by leaps and bounds. I don't think that is a hurdle. The major issue right now is avoiding motion sickness and designing appropriate content that will interest enough people to buy it.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,348
642
121
VR is going to happen. It's just a question of when will it be mainstream.
It's a given fact that VR is going to happen though.
 

HeXen

Diamond Member
Dec 13, 2009
7,835
37
91
I think you guys forget that FB will be marketing this for more than just gaming such as medicine and science uses where many people in various fields have a serious interest in such products for simulations..etc, FB will profit regardless and can afford to keep this in the market whether it fails or not in the gaming arena as they have a ridiculous amount of resources and money.

Sony's VR for the PS4 will be as mainstream as it will get if it gets there as far as 2016 is concerned. PC gamers will let any complaint possible get in their way.
However another great use of VR is walking games like Ethan Carter and whatnot if developers of such will support it. If people will spend hundreds of $ on steering wheel setups then serious sim gamers will be more than willing to pay for VR as well.
 

tential

Diamond Member
May 13, 2008
7,348
642
121
Just saw the Oculus Rift page, didn't realize it was coming Q1 2016. Didn't realize the price is supposed to be around $350 either.
I hope it's around $500 and includes ALL of the accessories I saw pictured though (or whatever price it needs to be to include the complete experience).

I will look for a display to try this ASAP. Chances are, I'll buy it. It looks amazingly cool and refined looking at the oculus page now.
Edit:nvm
 
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