Will the middle east tide of change influent Western power?

[iGas]

Tunisia and Egypt is falling apart, and Yemen & Jordan are going to be next.

At the moment ecconomic is to blame for the problem in theses countries, but IMHO it could be possible that the Western meddling in Middle East politic, along with the invasion/occupation of Afghanistan & Iraq contributes to the instability of the ME.

Q&A: What's at stake for U.S. in Egypt unrest

Q: Why is the turmoil in Egypt of such concern to the United States?

A: Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world, has played a crucial role in working with U.S. officials toward Middle East peace and been a strong partner in military and intelligence efforts... Egypt also controls the Suez Canal,...

Q: Could the U.S. lose a critical ally in the Middle East and, if so, what would that mean?

A: "The Mubarak regime is gone, but we're not going to lose Egypt (although) the situation is going to be precarious," says the Doha Center's Hamid... As far as relations with Israel are concerned, a more democratic Egypt would mean that the U.S. will have to take into account a much broader range of Egyptian views, including those that insist on the rapid improvement of Palestinian lives in the West Bank and Gaza. "...

Q: Are there risks to oil prices or disruption of shipments through the Suez Canal?

A: Many experts on the Middle East say it would not be in Egypt's interest to disrupt shipping through the Suez Canal. However, the turmoil has already caused oil prices to rise, and it is not clear how the uncertainty will play out in upcoming months.

 

[Nintendesert]

The goal of Iraq was to destabilize all of the middle east. Propping up friendly dictators was recognized as a failed policy so the goal became to erode those governments and encourage democracy. Real democracies are normally less aggressive and violent so this fits our aims of either wiping out our enemies there or appeasing the populace so as not to be a threat to us.

What is happening in the middle east now is exactly what we want.

 

[Orignal Earl]

Propping up friendly dictators was recognized as a failed policy so the goal became to erode those governments and encourage democracy.

What is happening in the middle east now is exactly what we want.

You were wrong the first time ( and dozens of times before)
But whats happening right now is exactly what you want.
You ever notice what you figure is right, is always the current choice.

 

[iGas]

The goal of Iraq was to destabilize all of the middle east. Propping up friendly dictators was recognized as a failed policy so the goal became to erode those governments and encourage democracy. Real democracies are normally less aggressive and violent so this fits our aims of either wiping out our enemies there or appeasing the populace so as not to be a threat to us.

What is happening in the middle east now is exactly what we want.

Wasn't the Iraq goal was to search for WMD?

And, the WMD was them pesty oil.

Coalition Forces Secure Oil Fields -- March 22, 2003

U.S. and British troops have captured many key facilities in Iraq's southern oil fields...

Iraq's Crude Awakening -- Saturday, May. 10, 2003

Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has been firm and consistent on what the war in Iraq is not about. "It has nothing to do with oil, literally nothing to do with oil," he says. If it sounds as though he's protesting too much, it's because the Bush Administration is up against a prevailing world view that the burden of proof is on the U.S. to show that it won't exploit Iraq's underground riches. Hours after the invasion began, U.S. forces had seized two offshore terminals that can transfer 2 million bbl. daily to tankers. They secured the southern Rumaila oil field so swiftly that Saddam Hussein's retreating troops managed to set only nine wells ablaze, compared with 650 Kuwaiti wells during Gulf War I, and U.S. airborne troops took the northern oil fields at Kirkuk largely intact.

Three weeks later, when U.S. forces rolled into downtown Baghdad, they headed straight for the Oil Ministry building and threw up a protective shield around it. While other government buildings, ranging from the Ministry of Religious Affairs to the National Museum of Antiquities, were looted and pillaged, while hospitals were stripped of medicine and basic equipment, Iraq's oil records were safe and secure, guarded by the U.S. military. General Richard Myers, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, had an explanation: "I think it's, as much as anything else, a matter of priorities."

 

[Nintendesert]

Wasn't the Iraq goal was to search for WMD?

And, the WMD was them pesty oil.

It was never about WMD though it offered us a good pretense to do what we needed. We publicly prop up many of these governments and actively work to subvert them. Read some of the stories coming out on these revolutions and see the handiwork of US trained subversives doing their thing.

 

[Nebor]

Wasn't the Iraq goal was to search for WMD?

And, the WMD was them pesty oil.

We secured the oil because we knew it was Iraq's only chance at developing into a prosperous democracy, and that anything less than absolute control over the oil would cause a civil war over who controlled it. Because WE controlled it, those disputes were worked out between the Shiites, Sunni's and Kurds via contracts instead of a civil war.

We didn't steal the oil, at worse we ensured that it was able to be steadily sold to us.

 

[Zebo]

I don't worry about it too much. A bunch of Iran's won't hurt us just hurts the minority, free thinkers and women within. MAD will stop them fucking with Israel too much, not like they are going to try and wipe them out unless they want world to die. And they can't wipe us out.

 

[IGBT]

what's gona happen to the mummies??

 

[Nebor]

what's gona happen to the mummies??

As soon as things started destabilizing on TV, this old Master Sergeant sitting next to me goes, "you ever seen that king tut exhibit sir? I bet no one's thinking about it right now, but I'd be lootin' the shit out of it."

 

[IGBT]

As soon as things started destabilizing on TV, this old Master Sergeant sitting next to me goes, "you ever seen that king tut exhibit sir? I bet no one's thinking about it right now, but I'd be lootin' the shit out of it."

they be's lots of gold teeth in egypt shortly soon.

 

[irishScott]

I have a feeling that as long as Egypt doesn't start disrupting the Suez Canal all the west will have is a bunch of mean words. We didn't support the Iranian people back when the Government Basij were beating them in the alleys, and the situation in Egypt is thus far much less severe in terms of human casualties.

 

[Sacrilege]

George W. Bush has said that history will redeem him. We are starting to see the fruits of his labors of regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. By demonstrating that Arab and Muslim democracy is possible, the eyes of the Muslim world have been opened and hopes have been ignited. Iranians, Egyptians, Tunisians, the people of Yemen, etc. are asking themselves, if Iraqis can vote for their leaders, why can't I? If Afghans can vote, despite all of the problems in their nation, why can't I?

In 50 years, George W. Bush will be on the US five dollar bill. He will be the 21st Century's Lincoln.

 

[irishScott]

George W. Bush has said that history will redeem him. We are starting to see the fruits of his labors of regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. By demonstrating that Arab and Muslim democracy is possible, the eyes of the Muslim world have been opened and hopes have been ignited. Iranians, Egyptians, Tunisians, the people of Yemen, etc. are asking themselves, if Iraqis can vote for their leaders, why can't I? If Afghans can vote, despite all of the problems in their nation, why can't I?

In 50 years, George W. Bush will be on the US five dollar bill. He will be the 21st Century's Lincoln.

Yeah, let's see how long Iraq and Afghanistan last after we leave. I'd say within 10 years it's back to Islamist drone-sandboxes for both of them.

 

[Nebor]

Yeah, let's see how long Iraq and Afghanistan last after we leave. I'd say within 10 years it's back to Islamist drone-sandboxes for both of them.

We're not leaving. Ever. We will scale back to tens of thousands of advisors, but we'll still be there.

If you think the past 2 weeks in Iraq haven't caused a buzz about the need for and logistics of a second surge, well, you're wrong.

 

[Darwin333]

George W. Bush has said that history will redeem him. We are starting to see the fruits of his labors of regime change in Afghanistan and Iraq. By demonstrating that Arab and Muslim democracy is possible, the eyes of the Muslim world have been opened and hopes have been ignited. Iranians, Egyptians, Tunisians, the people of Yemen, etc. are asking themselves, if Iraqis can vote for their leaders, why can't I? If Afghans can vote, despite all of the problems in their nation, why can't I?

In 50 years, George W. Bush will be on the US five dollar bill. He will be the 21st Century's Lincoln.

Yeah and the fact that they basically can't afford to buy food anymore has nothing at all to do with it.

Psst, hungry people tend to do stuff like this. People who aren't hungry, not so much.

 

[nageov3t]

in the interest of full democratization, we should force Egypt to take Gaza back so their voices can be represented.

 

[EagleKeeper]

in the interest of full democratization, we should force Egypt to take Gaza back so their voices can be represented.

Maybe a change of regime will allow that.

And then the same mistakes can be made that happened in Jordan

 

[trenchfoot]

>OP "Will the middle east tide of change influent Western power?"

Only as long as there's oil in the sand and the canal stays open for business.

 

[bfdd]

Wasn't the Iraq goal was to search for WMD?

And, the WMD was them pesty oil.

Anyone who thinks Iraq was for oil or uses silly things like that as proof of such is a moron.

 

[Lemon law]

Anyone who ever believed a word turd of what GWB&co ever said is a moron and still is.
Not only was every reason GWB gave to invade Iraq proved false, every goal he stated has backfired on us.

It sorta goes back to the idiot poster who stated we will have US advisers stationed in Iraq and Afghanistan forever advancing our interests. We had piles of US adviser in Vietnam too, but wait, we forgot to win and we have zero now. And in the same sense, I predict both Iraq and Afghanistan will tell our advisers to not go away mad, but instead to just go away ASAP in the ten year or so time frame.

As for the Western powers, of which the USA is only one of, most of the Western powers will successfully adapt to a new Arab power structure, but because the USA is too controlled by Israeli interests, the USA will lose most of its Western allies before it ever wakes up and smells the coffee..

 

[Atreus21]

Wasn't the Iraq goal was to search for WMD?

And, the WMD was them pesty oil.

If it was about oil, I'd like to know why prices are so high despite us controlling it.

 

[crownjules]

If it was about oil, I'd like to know why prices are so high despite us controlling it.

Iraq's oil production facilities haven't been nationalized by the US. That's the only way you would control the price of oil coming out of that country. Otherwise it's set by the markets*.

*Of course, OPEC uses it's control of the supply to manipulate the price.

 

[iGas]

If it was about oil, I'd like to know why prices are so high despite us controlling it.

Here ya go!

Iraq quietly rows back on lofty oil plans

BAGHDAD, Jan. 28 (UPI) -- Iraqi officials are quietly backpedaling on Baghdad's plan to boost oil production to as much as 12 million barrels per day in six years to a more modest 8 million bpd.

This is largely because the country's oil industry infrastructure is so dilapidated after decades of war, insurgency, international sanctions and neglect that it cannot support such an ambitious project.

The country's 4,500-mile pipeline network, a vital element in exporting oil, is barely able to handle current production levels...

In November, the International Energy Agency poured cold water on Iraq's plans to boost production to 12 million bpd by 2017, saying it could take 20 years just to reach half that.

The only countries that have been able to pull off the kind of feat Iraq seeks to achieve are Russia and Saudi Arabia, which during the 1960s pushed through the 10 million bpd barrier.

Upgrading Iraq's infrastructure will be an immense task and could cost as much as $150 billion, the IEA noted.

 

[iGas]

Iraq's oil production facilities haven't been nationalized by the US. That's the only way you would control the price of oil coming out of that country. Otherwise it's set by the markets*.

*Of course, OPEC uses it's control of the supply to manipulate the price.

OPEC can't produce more oil if it wanted to. Their production is pretty much running at 100% capability. North Sea production is on the decline. China & India consumption is rising rapidly that put a greater demand on supply. While Canadian tarsand hasn't been ramping up to take up the slack due to the last market crash and stupid/uneducated environmentalists.

<--- 100% of investment portfolio is in energy and oil is a large part of it.

[add]

Oil breaches $101 amid turmoil in Egypt -- Financial Times

 

[iGas]

IMHO, this situation could have implications for Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, if the current situation spread farther beyond Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan, and Yemen.

Saudi is smack in the middle of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, and Yemen.