Will people still be buying home p.c.'s in 2020?

[IceBergSLiM]

I just returned a 10.1" tablet that, while pretty to look at and semi-functional for many things, was no substitute for my desktop, any more than my phone could be. BTW, I love my phone and take it everywhere, but a computer it ain't. Mobile devices have their niche, but for serious work I need a 23" screen, mechanical keyboard, an ergo mouse/digitizer tablet, and enough RAM and processing power to process photos, video, and large, complicated spreadsheets.

in 7 years the average phone and tablet will enough RAM and horsepower to do any processing you need. I DOUBT that it is even a real bottleneck today, probably more like the software needs to be updated.

Everything else you mentioned are peripherals that you don't need a full blown PC to operate. Smart Monitor should be sufficient. Or a dock if your really outside the curve.

 

[Fritzo]

I'm thinking everyone will have a smart device- phone/tablet/watch hybrid thing that will carry around all of our information, and you simply plug it into a dock when you're at work/home/whatever.

 

[T9D]

I just returned a 10.1" tablet that, while pretty to look at and semi-functional for many things, was no substitute for my desktop, any more than my phone could be. BTW, I love my phone and take it everywhere, but a computer it ain't. Mobile devices have their niche, but for serious work I need a 23" screen, mechanical keyboard, an ergo mouse/digitizer tablet, and enough RAM and processing power to process photos, video, and large, complicated spreadsheets.

That's the thing though. Intel has some serious mobile horsepower in the works. All I have right now is a laptop. I do all those things you mentioned. I also hook it up to a large monitor and keyboard mouse when I want to. A few years back I would have never been able to be happy doing this. But it's great now. Eventually I'll be able to go smaller and only have a phone. With mobile processors, GPU's moving onto the CPU (or outboard GPU's), and SSD's, I think eventually we will be hard pressed to tell a difference

 

[IceBergSLiM]

No doubt. I guess I should have made it a bit more clear: until a phone can be as powerful (CPU/RAM/harddrive/video card) as my PC, and accept the peripherals like I mentioned (either through a dock or some other way), I'll stick with a PC.

How far off is it really? Software has been lagging behind hardware for years in terms of fully utilizing the capabilities. So maybe just better software could do the trick.

 

[GTaudiophile]

I wouldn't care to speculate that far into the future. I can visualize a phone being powerful enough to run most programs, and dropping it in a dock at home which gives a full keyboard and other peripherals. When that day comes, and I have FULL control of the device, I'll give up the desktop. Other people will too.

I remember Motorola previewing that kind of technology. And I remember thinking, "This is the future!"

So yeah, my phone is as powerful as my desktop and I just need to dock it when I get home, then I won't see the need for a traditional WinTel desktop system.

 

[dighn]

I imagine for most people mobile will be enough if it can easily interface to external monitors/keyboards. there will always be desktop workstations for professional / academic / hobbyist use though.

 

[Vdubchaos]

So yeah, my phone is as powerful as my desktop

Not even close

And don't compare it from a "GHZ" perspective either as mobile/desktop CPUs use totally different architecture. It's not a direct comparison.

Your desktop doesn't even come CLOSE to your desktop (even if you desktop is 3-5 years old)

 

[Midwayman]

For the average user, sure. I think they already stopped buying desktops years ago though. They are laptop customers. As phones and tablets evolve they will serve as a single computing device for people who are casual users (most of the non-professional market). Maybe there will be desktop docks, etc for larger displays, etc.

As for going away completely? Not for a very long time. There are plenty of pro users or just serious home users who need computing power that won't fit into a mobile TDP. I wouldn't be surprised to have them fade away to the level that things like SGI, Sun, etc workstations were at prior to being overtaken by windows PCs in the '90s.

 

[SamQuint]

For me it is storage. Unless a phone can store 3-4 Terabytes I am not going to switch to a tablet. I have way too many photos, and I sure as hell am not going to pay for masses of cloud storage space.

Also I like the fact that a big tower is something most thieves are not going to take. People lose their phones left and right. Imagine having all you data only on a phone and poof a thief steals it. Unless everything is backed up to the cloud then you will be in a world of hurt.

I also like backing stuff up to CDs and DVDs.

I will continue to get desktop PCs until there is something really compelling to replace them. Current tablets suck as a PC replacement.

But then again I am old school, I still buy CDs.

 

[grrl]

I'm sure I will be - do tablets come with dual monitors? Plus storage is likely to never be enough on a tablet.

I think the dock idea is a likely forward path, but I have less confidence in the cloud taking over very soon.

 

[Gibsons]

As mentioned above - I need a full keyboard and a full size monitor, probably a mouse as well. I'm skeptical those needs will be fully bypassed in the next 7 years.

 

[lxskllr]

For me it is storage. Unless a phone can store 3-4 Terabytes I am not going to switch to a tablet. I have way too many photos, and I sure as hell am not going to pay for masses of cloud storage space.

Also I like the fact that a big tower is something most thieves are not going to take. People lose their phones left and right. Imagine having all you data only on a phone and poof a thief steals it. Unless everything is backed up to the cloud then you will be in a world of hurt.

I also like backing stuff up to CDs and DVDs.

I will continue to get desktop PCs until there is something really compelling to replace them. Current tablets suck as a PC replacement.

But then again I am old school, I still buy CDs.

No reason you can't carry what you NEED, and leave the other stuff at home on a server or NAS. My netbook has 16gb storage, and it's plenty for my traveling needs. Now I'm using a desktop, but assuming my netbook was powerful enough, there's no reason I couldn't hook it to external storage of some kind, and use it as my main machine.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

For me it is storage. Unless a phone can store 3-4 Terabytes I am not going to switch to a tablet. I have way too many photos, and I sure as hell am not going to pay for masses of cloud storage space.

Also I like the fact that a big tower is something most thieves are not going to take. People lose their phones left and right. Imagine having all you data only on a phone and poof a thief steals it. Unless everything is backed up to the cloud then you will be in a world of hurt.

I also like backing stuff up to CDs and DVDs.

I will continue to get desktop PCs until there is something really compelling to replace them. Current tablets suck as a PC replacement.

But then again I am old school, I still buy CDs.

why can't you just deploy a plug n play NAS if your storage needs can't be met on a tablet. Seems wasteful to have a full PC just to "store" pics

 

[BurnItDwn]

I will still own home PCs in 2020.
I play games, and there are no real alternatives to PC.
Consoles all lack flexibility and power, and mobile devices are a joke at best.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

As mentioned above - I need a full keyboard and a full size monitor, probably a mouse as well. I'm skeptical those needs will be fully bypassed in the next 7 years.

As mentioned above those are peripherals and there is nothing preventing peripherals to work wirelessly with a phone or tablet

 

[aaksheytalwar]

Half the people in this thread just don't get it. By desktop we mean the computing units. You will still have a tv\monitor, a keyboard and mouse. But the cpu, gpu, ram Tec will be of the smartphone with cloud storage in excess of a terabyte with a mobile ssd. For casual users this should happen around 2020-2030 but for hard core gamers it will probably take an additional 5-15 years or so.

 

[Vdubchaos]

Consoles all lack flexibility and power, and mobile devices are a joke at best.

And sadly most of attention for Game development is for a) mobile devices and b) consoles

PC folks get screwed as always....

 

[TheVrolok]

in 7 years the average phone and tablet will enough RAM and horsepower to do any processing you need. I DOUBT that it is even a real bottleneck today, probably more like the software needs to be updated.

In 7 years the average phone and tablet will still have significantly less horsepower than the contemporary performance/enthusiast desktop - just like today. A brand new phone/tablet doesn't even come close to the horsepower a high end desktop possess - and it's not a software issue.

 

[ImpulsE69]

People who keep using cloud storage as a "reason to not need a desktop" really aren't using a desktop now. Cloud isn't a substitute for anyone actually using a real PC. It's an add-on.

 

[Vdubchaos]

People who keep using cloud storage as a "reason to not need a desktop" really aren't using a desktop now. Cloud isn't a substitute for anyone actually using a real PC. It's an add-on.

Don't worry, just wait until their stuff is gone or the company goes under and they are SOL.

I don't see how people can even rely on "cloud" storage....but hey

 

[sixone]

Until they make typing on a smartphone or tablet as easy as using a full-sized keyboard, they won't replace laptops or desktops.

 

[Jaskalas]

I still like my desktop PC... Could be because I've been using them for years and I like familiarity.

You're familiar with the keyboard, video, and mouse. KVM. A simple connector will give you the desktop experience on a tablet, it'll be a popular market by 2020. Call it a "docking station" or whatever.

 

[IceBergSLiM]

In 7 years the average phone and tablet will still have significantly less horsepower than the contemporary performance/enthusiast desktop - just like today. A brand new phone/tablet doesn't even come close to the horsepower a high end desktop possess - and it's not a software issue.

I guess it depends on your measure, in pure MIPS your right. But in a comparison of what you can actually do(functionality) there will be nothing about the hardware of the tablet/phone inhibiting the equivalent functionality. And again as said at the beginning this is in the scope of the 95% of users not the 5% of engineers with their bleeding edge 3D modeling rendering stuffs

 

[IceBergSLiM]

Don't worry, just wait until their stuff is gone or the company goes under and they are SOL.

I don't see how people can even rely on "cloud" storage....but hey

Its more reliable than the average desktop hard drive that isn't even backed up and if it is backed up the back up is in the same location as the original so if there were a disaster its existence is moot.

 

[Mermaidman]

Will people still be buying home p.c.'s in 2020?

Yes. The question should be: "What will home PCs resemble in after 2020?"

Now, if you're talking about a big biege box, then no.