Will Obama win in 2012?

[Theb]

The election will be based on the state of the economy. If the economy is showing definite signs of improvement, Mr Obama wins. If the economy gets worse, Mr Obama might lose.

Agreed.

If I had to pick a Republican contender this far out my money would be on Bobby Jindal.

 

[PJABBER]

Obama is a narcissist. He cannot fathom why so many oppose him now that he has shown his true colors. And they ain't brown! LOL!

Whether the Democrats stand behind him will depend on what happens in November. If the Republicans thrash the Dems, they will turn against him, but I expect he will not be responsive and take on an ever greater bunker mentality. If the Repubs don't prevail, the Dems will continue down the road they have taken, to the country's great detriment.

 

[Jiggz]

He should win in 2012! Otherwise he will blame Bush again!

 

[kalrith]

The governator will run and win. I know he can't technically be president now, but I'm sure they'll pass a constitutional amendment allowing naturalized citizens to be president.

 

[RedChief]

Wow. Well thought out. I think you're probably right. I don't think Obama has a snowballs chance in hell at getting re-elected so the dems will have to put somebody else up. And if I recall the 08 primaries were pretty damn close.

In '08 Hillary usually won states with primaries (so normal voting) while Obama won states with caucuses (where peer pressure and being known as the person who didnt want to vote for the black guy comes into play).

Hillary cannot wait until 2016 as Obama will have no coatails. People were sick of Clinton by '00, hence we got Bush not Gore. People wanted 4 more years of Reagan in '88 hence we got Bush instead of Dukakis.

 

[Pens1566]

Agreed.

If I had to pick a Republican contender this far out my money would be on Bobby Jindal.

Jindal has been less than stellar whenever he's had a national audience.

 

[nageov3t]

Jindal has been less than stellar whenever he's had a national audience.

I'm pretty sure he's ruled out a 2012 run as well.

 

[StageLeft]

I said no but of course it depends greatly on his competitor and also a great deal can happen in two years. As he stands right now I do hope he is a one-term president. I don't know that this country deserves better, it probably doesn't, but I hope it does get better.

 

[StageLeft]

Jindal has been less than stellar whenever he's had a national audience.

I dunno, I think he does great. Here he was talking to a group of third graders after the state of the union.



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voAHRKlh7RQ&feature=fvw

 

[boomerang]

I've felt for some time that he has higher aspirations. Secretary-General of the U.N. is his goal IMO. He's not content to run just the U.S. He's been unable to achieve his goal of fundamental transformation as just President, but as SG he might have a chance with the right person in the White House assuming he can retain his backers. He's both bored and frustrated with the job he has now. Too difficult to accomplish his goals. Don't mistake my statements as some form of consent that he's qualified for the job - he's not. He's not qualified to run an ice cream truck. But that hasn't stopped him from attaining the highest position in the land. But Socialism is failing in Europe so he may be the right man at the wrong time.

So, he'll decide not to run if that is his aspiration. But the party will always run a sitting President if that person wants the job. No matter how bad their chances may be.

I read an interesting opinion piece that surmised that Biden would be shown the door to make the VP slot open for Hillary in 2012. She'll then be in prime position for the run in 2016. We'll really be in trouble with her at the Helm. She's a Mensa candidate compared to Obama. With a majority of Americans and illegals sucking at the government teat, she may just be able to pull off our transformation to her vision of a Socialist utopia.

The country will not survive in its current form with this guy at the helm for another term. Some will cheer that statement of course. It may not survive this term, but that remains to be seen. Of course he'll be a shoe-in for 2012 if he can accomplish enough to declare himself King.

 

[ProfJohn]

It will be Rick Perry of Texas with Christe of NJ as his running mate.

Write it down now

 

[PJABBER]

I dunno, I think he does great. Here he was talking to a group of third graders after the state of the union.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=voAHRKlh7RQ&feature=fvw

LOL! You generally can't go wrong underestimating the intelligence or the attention span of the average American, but that speech was something special coming from a guy like Jindal.

 

[classy]

She is just a mouth piece... and can do nothing more than spew out the latest talking points. I think America will be ready to end this nightmare we have been experiencing since 2007. You will see a lot of fiscally conservative people line up.

I am not from New Jersey... but I like the way Chris Christie is dealing with the budget crisis in that state. Raising taxes is a last resort and cutting spending is priority. So far he has the teachers union in NJ pissed so he is doing something right. He is also smart enough to not follow in the footsteps of the Governor of New York who caused a mass exodus of the wealthiest residents. He will be one to watch.

I live in NJ and voted for Christie. He'll be lucky if he isn't a one term governor.

 

[First]

They have no one to run against him so it'll be Obama for another term. Obama is a better campaigner period, substance or not. Plus he and the Dems will have more money. Conservatives are just going to have to get used to the idea that Bush fucked them over for a good decade or so.

 

[classy]

I couldn't agree more I have never seen a bigger bumbling idiot . Just view these.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of61E1FesPU

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAUZFMHXbD8&feature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws&feature=related

A lot of people pause and stumble over their words when they are trying put something in perspective and then convey a thought. How a person says something is not what makes them an idiot. Its what a person says that makes them a bumbling idiot.

 

[nick1985]

A lot of people pause and stumble over their words when they are trying put something in perspective and then convey a thought. How a person says something is not what makes them an idiot. Its what a person says that makes them a bumbling idiot.

Would you have posted the same thing if those videos were of Bush doing the same thing?

 

[sportage]

Republicans will run the usual suspects in 2012.
Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney, Paul. Palin will wait as well as
Jeb Bush and Hillary. It will be impossible to beat Obama
and they already know that. Just as they dug up Dole
to run a losing campaign against Clinton in 1996, republicans will
run the usual suspects in 2012. 2016 is the year to watch and focus on.

I wish they'd just save all that money and donate it to breast cancer research
or saving the wildlife fund.

 

[nageov3t]

Tim Pawlenty was on The Daily Show tonight talking about spending reforms... I thought he came across really well.

I'm looking forward to the full interview showing up on thedailyshow.com tomorrow.

 

[ProfJohn]

They have no one to run against him so it'll be Obama for another term. Obama is a better campaigner period, substance or not. Plus he and the Dems will have more money. Conservatives are just going to have to get used to the idea that Bush fucked them over for a good decade or so.

In 2008 Obama ran against Bush and the previous 8 years.

In 2012 he won't have the ability to campaign against the least popular President in nearly 30 years. Instead he will have to stand up and defend his record and convince people to give him another four years.

With the way things are going right now it won't be too hard for someone to defeat him.

Also keep in mind that if people think that Obama can be defeated it will cause a higher quality of candidate to run for presidency.

Finally, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Obama were all pretty well unknown by the national public at this point in their careers. Yes Obama was on the cover of Time and such, but to the general public he wasn't very unknown until about a year before his victory and most people probably didn't start paying attention to him until he started winning primaries.

 

[ProfJohn]

Republicans will run the usual suspects in 2012.
Huckabee, Giuliani, Romney, Paul. Palin will wait as well as
Jeb Bush and Hillary. It will be impossible to beat Obama
and they already know that. Just as they dug up Dole
to run a losing campaign against Clinton in 1996, republicans will
run the usual suspects in 2012. 2016 is the year to watch and focus on.

I wish they'd just save all that money and donate it to breast cancer research
or saving the wildlife fund.

Obama's approval v disapproval rating is nearly flat and very close to the point where he loses almost by decree.

Anything below a 50% approval rating has meant defeat in the past and Obama is very close to that number.

 

[First]

In 2008 Obama ran against Bush and the previous 8 years.

In 2012 he won't have the ability to campaign against the least popular President in nearly 30 years. Instead he will have to stand up and defend his record and convince people to give him another four years.

With the way things are going right now it won't be too hard for someone to defeat him.

Also keep in mind that if people think that Obama can be defeated it will cause a higher quality of candidate to run for presidency.

Finally, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Obama were all pretty well unknown by the national public at this point in their careers. Yes Obama was on the cover of Time and such, but to the general public he wasn't very unknown until about a year before his victory and most people probably didn't start paying attention to him until he started winning primaries.

In other words you have to hope that the stacked odds against the Republicans will make a sudden turn in 12-15 months, since campaigning for 2012 will start sometime next summer. Good luck with that.

 

[First]

Obama's approval v disapproval rating is nearly flat and very close to the point where he loses almost by decree.

Anything below a 50% approval rating has meant defeat in the past and Obama is very close to that number.

Except no other non-Obama candidate consistently sniffs 50%+ in any series of significant polling data, so it's entirely irrelevant. And this is the absolute rock bottom low point for the administration with the BP spill, no benefits from healthcare coming until later this year, and the economy taking a very temporary dive due to European debt issues. The spill will of course go away eventually and the economy will improve, so it really won't be difficult for Obama to maintain around 50%. He blew out the most liberal guy the Repubs could get in 08, won't be terribly surprising if he holds on for a 2nd term, and the smart money is on exactly that. Plus, again, we know who is a better speaker, campaigner, and disciplined debater, if you in particular didn't see it between the two in 08. You have to absolutely bank on a complete unknown, that's just the reality.

 

[PJABBER]

Except no other non-Obama candidate consistently sniffs 50%+ in any series of significant polling data, so it's entirely irrelevant. And this is the absolute rock bottom low point for the administration with the BP spill, no benefits from healthcare coming until later this year, and the economy taking a very temporary dive due to European debt issues. The spill will of course go away eventually and the economy will improve, so it really won't be difficult for Obama to maintain around 50%. He blew out the most liberal guy the Repubs could get in 08, won't be terribly surprising if he holds on for a 2nd term, and the smart money is on exactly that. Plus, again, we know who is a better speaker, campaigner, and disciplined debater, if you in particular didn't see it between the two in 08. You have to absolutely bank on a complete unknown, that's just the reality.

So far, Obama has nothing that the public sees as positive to run on.

He will try to take credit for an economic turnaround by 2012 but investing $225K per new job that in the end turns out to be mostly temporary Census employment is a no go right from the start.

He is spending huge amounts in Afghanistan as well as sending lots of soldiers, but what happens if they are pulled out without a decisive change there?

Bin Laden and pals are now being identified as resident in Sabzevar, Iran for the past five years. Blame Bush? Obama is the president now. What is he going to do about it and those nuclear weapons development sites?

Obama has been bashing Israel. The Israelis are under a lot of pressure these days and a lot of American voters still support them. What happens if Obama hangs them out to dry?

Obama still intends to fundamentally transform America and a lot of people want the country to stay American. Expect a continuing backlash.

The Gulf oil spill is Obama's nightmare. It will affect Gulf state economies for a long time. If Obama moves to take over BP assets, he will destroy relations with the UK as BP is that country's largest company. If Obama stops BP from paying dividends he will materially affect the pensions of most of the UK and many here in the US as well. It is a lose-lose scenario that casts him and his advocacy of an all powerful government down the toilet.

He won the last election by running against Bush. Who can he tar as Bush this time around? I read the Dems will try to run against Bush in the 2010 elections, let's see how far that gets them.

As far as contenders go, I believe we already know of the likely nominee, we just don't know who it is going to be. My guess it will not be one of the people most mentioned unless it is Romney in response to a worsening economic situation.

 

[classy]

Would you have posted the same thing if those videos were of Bush doing the same thing?

Yes. I did not vote for Bush either time. President Bush was a decent President himself, but his problem was he surrounded himself with political morons. Cheney was a complete disgrace. Rumsfeld was just terrible. Rice was nothing to write home about either. Ashcroft and all 3 of his Secs for Treasuer were walking jokes. And with people like Rove always in his corner with his rhetoric just magnified Bush's poor choice in surrounding himself with competant people who were interested in the country's business. These folks with several others kept his entire presidency in scandals.

 

[classy]

Obama still intends to fundamentally transform America and a lot of people want the country to stay American.

I can only imagine what staying "American" means. The rest of your post is full of nonsense.