Question will it be worth the wait or too high and experimental purchase AMD zen 5

[etrin]

AMD said that the new Zen will be out by the end of the year. pci 5, ddr 5 and everything new tech.
Is first gen too much of a beta test and not worth the predicted high price for all this?
I would have got a 5000 but since they are not availabe just like everything else I am thinking of waiting but don't know

 

[scannall]

AMD said that the new Zen will be out by the end of the year. pci 5, ddr 5 and everything new tech.
Is first gen too much of a beta test and not worth the predicted high price for all this?
I would have got a 5000 but since they are not availabe just like everything else I am thinking of waiting but don't know

They should be fine. It may take a month or two for bios updates if past trends hold but nothing I'd worry about. Since graphics cards are so high and unavailable I am putting off a new build as well.

 

[MalVeauX]

AMD said that the new Zen will be out by the end of the year. pci 5, ddr 5 and everything new tech.
Is first gen too much of a beta test and not worth the predicted high price for all this?
I would have got a 5000 but since they are not availabe just like everything else I am thinking of waiting but don't know

Haha, you won't get these either. Worse availability than zen3 for the same reasons.

When the next release is out, maybe zen3 will be in stock at MSRP.

Very best,

 

[fleshconsumed]

It's always a gamble. I was an early Zen adopter and I've been bit by crappy asrock x370 motherboards and Ryzen compile bug. Since then I moved to Asus X470 motherboards/Zen2 so don't regret it too much, but I'll probably skip next major refresh and just try to pick up 5950x hopefully on a discount.

 

[Schmide]

Waiting for next generation memory is probably the biggest unicorn you could ever chase. It never amounts to much, it's costly and it never ever gets there on time.

 

[etrin]

thanks this really helps. I was going to get a 5900 and motherboard but since you can't find any I saw some 5600 and said that should work. Since then they have gone sky high so I decided to wait probably to the summer. But by then if the next gen gets out in fall why buy it.

 

[MrTeal]

Yeah, I've got to go with Schmide here. Unless your application calls for 128GB or something where RAM is a major cost factor, it's not really worth considering with an eye to future proofing. Given how long CPU upgrade cycles have become, by the time you replace whatever you buy now you're either going to have to sell some DDR4-3600 you bought inexpensively now, or whatever the DDR5 equivalent of first gen DDR4-2133 is going to be. In 5 years your DDR4 might actually be worth more.

 

[Hitman928]

Where did AMD say next gen Zen would be out by the end of the year? Most likely some time in the first half of 2022.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Zen 4 availability in 2021 is not happening. Jan-Mar 2022 is the "safe" bet. No idea what supplies will be like since AMD will be jumping to a node that is currently dominated by Apple.

 

[moinmoin]

I wonder whether DDR5 based platforms will be held back by a lack of DDR5 memory on the market first. In that regard I can see DDR5 being a focus for datacenters first before a significant amount of it will be available for the consumer market.

 

[Mopetar]

Zen 4 availability in 2021 is not happening. Jan-Mar 2022 is the "safe" bet. No idea what supplies will be like since AMD will be jumping to a node that is currently dominated by Apple.

Won't Apple be moving to TSMC's newer node by that time though, which frees up space for companies like AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm to start using it?

Depending on what Apple does with their product stack they may well still use some 5nm wafers, but by that time it's unlikely that they'll "dominate" the node.

Late 2021 seems unlikely just because AMD will probably only hit their stride with Zen 3 production by mid-year as any COVID related demand winds down and AMD isn't using almost all of their wafers on console SoCs.

Better for AMD to build up more inventory so we don't repeat the end of this past year all over again.

 

[Doug S]

Won't Apple be moving to TSMC's newer node by that time though, which frees up space for companies like AMD, Nvidia, and Qualcomm to start using it?

Depending on what Apple does with their product stack they may well still use some 5nm wafers, but by that time it's unlikely that they'll "dominate" the node.

Late 2021 seems unlikely just because AMD will probably only hit their stride with Zen 3 production by mid-year as any COVID related demand winds down and AMD isn't using almost all of their wafers on console SoCs.

Better for AMD to build up more inventory so we don't repeat the end of this past year all over again.

The "newer node" Apple will be moving to is N5P, which is just a tweaked N5. Whether TSMC brings N5P online by building new lines (which requires additional EUV machines which are VERY short in supply) or by upgrading N5 lines to N5P is unknown. Perhaps a combination of the two is the most likely.

There are reports that Intel has canceled some of its EUV machine orders with ASML for TSMC to get earlier delivery. If so, that's probably part of a deal guaranteeing some capacity to Intel, and the time frame for all this is unknown, so I wouldn't count on this affecting anyone's allocation but Intel's.

So Apple moving to N5P isn't necessarily going to free up a lot of N5 capacity. Most particularly because Apple will still have a LOT of stuff being built on N5. They always span multiple fab generations in their iPhone line. Currently they are selling iPhone 12s (N5) iPhone 11 and SE (N7P) and iPhone Xr (N7) They are also selling iPads across multiple generations, watches, and so on. They will likely still be selling M1 Macs at this time next year and maybe the year after that, even as they introduce better/faster Apple Silicon SoCs for the Mac line. So Apple will still be using a lot of N5 wafers a year from now, just as they are using a fair amount of N7/N7P wafers still today.

 

[Mopetar]

I'm not terribly up on TSMC's roadmap, but it looks like their 3nm is scheduled for 2H2022 for volume production based on what I can find online. Some sources state that risk production will start during 2021, it's unlikely it would go well enough for Apple to be able to use the node for the 2021 iPhone. It certainly is possible for them to release some product using TSMC 3nm before the end of the year though depending on how quickly they get the design kinks worked out.

Even though Apple has a lot of older products that still use 7nm chips, those are going to be more limited as those products are on the tail end of their sales curve and they also can draw on any surplus chips they have in inventory in whole or part due to diminished volume. They may still be purchasing some 7nm wafers for those lines, but nowhere near the initial amounts when those products first came to market.

However, the reports now are expecting volume production on 3nm around mid-2022 which is just in time for Apple to start ramping up production for the next iPhone. That means their 5nm purchases will decline and space will open up for other companies like AMD. AMD might still be able to get some wafers in 2021, but like I said, I don't think they'd have enough volume to do a launch that's any better than we've seen with Zen 3. The chiplet strategy at least makes it possible though.

The other possibility that needs to be considered is that AMD would be buying up new production capacity that's being added by TSMC rather than taking wafers off of Apple. It's not something I really follow closely, but a quick search shows several articles suggesting that TSMC will be increasing their 5nm capacity by 50% during 2021. Even if AMD isn't getting all of that, it's hard to imagine that they wouldn't be getting any of it either.

I still think late 2021 is too early for a lot of reasons and doesn't really line up with AMD's typical product cycle up to this point, but nothing stays completely consistent over time either. I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing some engineering samples crop up by the end of the year, but I wouldn't bet on any product launch until March 2022 at the earliest.

 

[moinmoin]

Capacity at TSMC is not a fixed quantity. For new nodes TSMC plans to expand capacity through several phases. For example here's AT's report on TSMC's plan for 3 phases for N5 three years ago:

TSMC Starts to Build Fab 18: 5 nm, Volume Production in Early 2020

www.anandtech.com

As mentioned before by others by now the limiting factor likely is the EUV equipment by ASML.

 

[CakeMonster]

If 2020 taught us anything its buy what is available when you need it. Too many people waited still on old hardware they no longer enjoyed for a new product they still don't have 4 months after release, prolonging their misery further. And some people even wasted their only theoretical chance of getting a 30x0 graphics card by not ordering on release date since they heard rumors of a 'better' version like a 3080Ti that is still not real.

TLDR: If you need better performance than you currently have, go out and get it. There's no guarantee when you will be able to get next gen, hardly even current gen.

 

[chrisjames61]

If 2020 taught us anything its buy what is available when you need it. Too many people waited still on old hardware they no longer enjoyed for a new product they still don't have 4 months after release, prolonging their misery further. And some people even wasted their only theoretical chance of getting a 30x0 graphics card by not ordering on release date since they heard rumors of a 'better' version like a 3080Ti that is still not real.

TLDR: If you need better performance than you currently have, go out and get it. There's no guarantee when you will be able to get next gen, hardly even current gen.

Yup, people asking to be told when to buy and not buy is hand holding. Buy the best you can afford when you need it.

 

[Zepp]

If 2020 taught us anything its buy what is available when you need it. Too many people waited still on old hardware they no longer enjoyed for a new product they still don't have 4 months after release, prolonging their misery further.

yep, I have 2 gaming buds in that exact situation right now. one is on a 5 year old system, the other is on a 9 year old system. They picked a hell of a time to bite the bullet on a full system upgrade.

They've now started looking at prebuilt option like cyberpowerPC

 

[blckgrffn]

yep, I have 2 gaming buds in that exact situation right now. one is on a 5 year old system, the other is on a 9 year old system. They picked a hell of a time to bite the bullet on a full system upgrade.

They've now started looking at prebuilt option like cyberpowerPC

That's the most realistic option, and they are still about six weeks late on the good deals on that front. There was a bit there where some good coupons were stacking and if you had the means you could essentially shuck the video card out (assuming you had something, anything) and resell the system and still get the video card at near MSRP if you were really bent on self building.

I've recommended and helped buy more prebuilts in the last couple of months then I ever wanted to

That included a $1k Dell because it had an i7 AND a 2060. Yay.

The only bespoke gaming PC I have built in the since November was for my brother in law, and it was because he had a 2060 paired with a FX CPU, getting the other components for good prices finally happened. Woe to those who don't have GPUs.

...wait, I also helped someone snipe a 1660 for a bespoke build right before Christmas at Old MSRP from Best Buy. I insisted he buy the GPU before we confirmed the rest of the build. So exciting to find MSRP parts!!!

Back to the thread - I am now waiting on MC clearouts on 10th gen CPUs or for decent pricing on Rocket Lake based CPUs for new builds. Waiting a few weeks is much saner than waiting a few months, imo.

I mean, maybe AMD comes back into stock someday, I would gladly welcome that but I won't be standing in lines or paying way over MSRP if I can score some sweet, aged (and cheap) silicon from Intel

 

[blckgrffn]

EDIT, removed post. LOL, wrong thread